2019 Global Census Round

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There is a reason every time the UN comes out with its latest population projection, they have to revise it upwards, in the 2008 population review they had the world population reaching 9 billion by 2050, in the 2017 review, the most recent one, it is up to 9.8 billion, the UN consistently continues to overstate the level of fertility decline in Africa, in many African countries fertility is not even falling and its models have completely failed to see the rise in some countries.

In Algeria for example, the fertility rate was 2.4 in 2000, it is 3.1 as of 2017, meaning it rose by 0.7, the impact of this was to raise the annual number of births in Algeria from 600k to 1.06 million. Egypt as has been mentioned already has seen its TFR rise from 3.0 to 3.5 between 2008 and 2014, it is now back down to 3.1. 

The UN assumption that every high TFR country will eventually transition to a European level of fertility is in my opinion false and has no basis in reality. Fertility today is determined not by resource availability but cultural preferences, it is likely that countries where fertility preferences remain high will retain high fertility regardless of high their life expectancy might go. Algeria's life expectancy 70.3 in 2000 when it had a TFR of 2.4, by 2017 its life expectancy was 76, just 2.5 years below America and its TFR was 3.1, during the same period infant mortality also dropped, the models would have us believe that as infant mortality drops and life expectancy rises, fertility will fall, the inverse occurred in Algeria as it has in Egypt.