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  Will China have truly competitive multi-party elections by 2040?
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Question: Will China have truly competitive multi-party elections by 2040?
#1Yes  
#2No  
#3IDK  
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Total Voters: 45

Author Topic: Will China have truly competitive multi-party elections by 2040?  (Read 1468 times)
pilskonzept
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« Reply #25 on: December 26, 2018, 07:56:47 am »

Having learned from history, I can't see any major actors in the CPC or PLA seeking to liberalize politics in China for at least the next half century.

No, I agree with that. Some actors seeking to take bigger piece of the cake is more likely, especially if the cake doesn't grow as much as it did in the past.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #26 on: December 26, 2018, 12:22:33 pm »

Without external turmoil, the Soviet Union would likely have been able to survive intact despite its internal problems. As it is, after a decade of multi-party chaos, Russia has returned to single party rule. Having learned from history, I can't see any major actors in the CPC or PLA seeking to liberalize politics in China for at least the next half century.

I wasn't talking about liberalization, but the end of the one-party system. The current Russian system is not party based. United Russia merely serves as a tool for Putin, and his replacement will not be selected by party structures.
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Beet
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« Reply #27 on: December 26, 2018, 12:29:28 pm »

Having learned from history, I can't see any major actors in the CPC or PLA seeking to liberalize politics in China for at least the next half century.

No, I agree with that. Some actors seeking to take bigger piece of the cake is more likely, especially if the cake doesn't grow as much as it did in the past.

China cannot learn from Russian history, this is the mistake the CPC made in the 1920s, and the CPC has been making since the 1990s. From the perspective of PRC history, repression has always had negative effects, but liberalization has been a great success.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #28 on: December 26, 2018, 02:06:23 pm »

Having learned from history, I can't see any major actors in the CPC or PLA seeking to liberalize politics in China for at least the next half century.

No, I agree with that. Some actors seeking to take bigger piece of the cake is more likely, especially if the cake doesn't grow as much as it did in the past.

China cannot learn from Russian history, this is the mistake the CPC made in the 1920s, and the CPC has been making since the 1990s. From the perspective of PRC history, repression has always had negative effects, but liberalization has been a great success.

Those who in their political formative years witnessed the Soviet collapse are now in their 50s/60s, precisely at the top of the Party hierarchy. But that experience will be less and less relevant as younger people gradually replace them in the coming decades. By the 2030s, there will be a new generation whose political beliefs are entirely shaped by what happened under Xi Jinping. They may not want to consciously dismantle the party, but may realize the Party is so rotten it can't be saved.

The external situation definitely won't improve for China. "Get tough on China" has become a new bipartisan consensus in Washington, which is remarkable given the mindless hyperpartisanship. One Belt One Road has had no major accomplishments and has been explicitly rejected in elections. Chinese high-tech products are now effectively shut out of western markets, and they know that China's large tech companies can be killed with a pen and paper in Washington. Finally, since China is now the #1 customer of oil from the Middle East, it now has a direct stake in the region's arcane politics and will be drawn in during the next dumpster fire.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #29 on: December 26, 2018, 02:11:50 pm »

they know that China's large tech companies can be killed with a pen and paper in Washington.

That seems hyperbolic.
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Beet
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« Reply #30 on: December 26, 2018, 02:22:11 pm »
« Edited: December 26, 2018, 02:27:16 pm by Beet »

Having learned from history, I can't see any major actors in the CPC or PLA seeking to liberalize politics in China for at least the next half century.

No, I agree with that. Some actors seeking to take bigger piece of the cake is more likely, especially if the cake doesn't grow as much as it did in the past.

China cannot learn from Russian history, this is the mistake the CPC made in the 1920s, and the CPC has been making since the 1990s. From the perspective of PRC history, repression has always had negative effects, but liberalization has been a great success.

Those who in their political formative years witnessed the Soviet collapse are now in their 50s/60s, precisely at the top of the Party hierarchy. But that experience will be less and less relevant as younger people gradually replace them in the coming decades. By the 2030s, there will be a new generation whose political beliefs are entirely shaped by what happened under Xi Jinping. They may not want to consciously dismantle the party, but may realize the Party is so rotten it can't be saved.

The external situation definitely won't improve for China. "Get tough on China" has become a new bipartisan consensus in Washington, which is remarkable given the mindless hyperpartisanship. One Belt One Road has had no major accomplishments and has been explicitly rejected in elections. Chinese high-tech products are now effectively shut out of western markets, and they know that China's large tech companies can be killed with a pen and paper in Washington. Finally, since China is now the #1 customer of oil from the Middle East, it now has a direct stake in the region's arcane politics and will be drawn in during the next dumpster fire.

Well, I'm glad someone sees it my way! The Chinese nationalists on other sites are always like CHINAR1! whenever you try to suggest Xi Jinping isn't the second coming
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exnaderite
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« Reply #31 on: December 26, 2018, 02:49:32 pm »

they know that China's large tech companies can be killed with a pen and paper in Washington.

That seems hyperbolic.
ZTE was killed precisely by that. Only after the Chinese government did some arm-twisting which included a $500 million bribe to a Trump project in Indonesia did they get a reprieve. The next POTUS won't be so easy to buy off.

Well, I'm glad someone sees it my way! The Chinese nationalists on other sites are always like CHINAR1! whenever you try to suggest Xi Jinping isn't the second coming
I have the feeling that just as Russians joked about Brezhnev becoming senile in his final years, Chinese will joke about Xi's senility by the late 2020s.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #32 on: December 27, 2018, 12:41:33 am »

Is there even a concrete, influential faction in favour of liberalisation?
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exnaderite
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« Reply #33 on: December 27, 2018, 08:28:47 pm »

Is there even a concrete, influential faction in favour of liberalisation?
There was one. It was led by this man. He was skillfully co-opted into the Standing Committee.
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CocaineMitch'sCartel
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« Reply #34 on: December 29, 2018, 09:12:04 pm »
« Edited: December 29, 2018, 09:31:50 pm by #WalkAwayFromDesantis »

As long as the economy is good and people are optimistic about their future, then any regime should last for a long time. The USSR and the Eastern Bloc probably would still be around had they managed to have a booming economy like the Chinese. Most people are wiling to keep their heads down and go with the flow as long as things are going well economically. People in China are too busy getting rich to overthrow the government.

Things can change dramatically in a instant, people in the early 80's had seen the Eastern Bloc hold on for 40 years, and assumed that it would still be around for the next 100 years after. The Eastern Block collapsed so fast, it was almost hard to beleive. Just 2 years after Reagan's speech in West Berlin, East Germany had collapsed and the wall fell.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #35 on: January 01, 2019, 09:17:30 pm »

The correct answer is:

LOLno.
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