Will China have truly competitive multi-party elections by 2040?

[pilskonzept]

Soviet military aid did not matter in places like Romania or Albania. The key thing, IMHO, was the exposure to a development model that was both more successful and more sustainable.

Looking back at the past 40 years, China IS the model - I guess the UN Human Development Index is neutral enough even if you are not a Chinese nationalist. This won't last forever.

There will be *something else* by 2040, but I doubt it will be both competitive and multi-party. And not necessarily "nicer" than the current system either: see Myanmar.

[pilskonzept]

Having learned from history, I can't see any major actors in the CPC or PLA seeking to liberalize politics in China for at least the next half century.

No, I agree with that. Some actors seeking to take bigger piece of the cake is more likely, especially if the cake doesn't grow as much as it did in the past.