Which will have higher turnout: US midterms 2018 or EU parliament election 2019?

[Former President tack50]

Pretty much what it says.

EU parliamentary elections have been stuck around the low 40s for a while US midterms have been around that as well historically except for 2014. Worth noting that thus far no EU election has had lower turnout than the closest American midterm to it.

However US midterms are also taken much more seriously (or at least have more consecuences) than EU parliamentary elections.

So I wonder if this year the American midterms might actually have higher turnout than EU parliamentary elections for the first time ever.

[Lourdes]

US midterms, there's record-breaking turnout.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

In Belgium EU parliament election turnout will be high, cause it's on the same day as the federal and regional election (and voting is mandatory, not voting = fine (though rarely prosecuted)).

[pilskonzept]

Belgium aside...Western European right-wing populists will get their vote out, but Eastern European right-wing populists won't, and Brexit is going to depress turnout among centrist voters in the West as well.

[Tender Branson]

The last 3 US midterms had 37% (2014), 42% (2010) and 41% (2006) turnout.

The last 3 EU elections had 43% (2014), 43% (2009) and 46% (2004) turnout.

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I think that both will end up around 40-45% this time, but hard to say where's higher turnout.

It's really low anyway. Austria had 80% turnout in the GE last year, the Netherlands and Sweden clearly over 80%.

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US midterms, there's record-breaking turnout.

No, it's not. It will just go from abysmal to slightly less abysmal this time ...

[rc18]

and Brexit is going to depress turnout among centrist voters in the West as well.

Why? I don't follow.

And of course we not being in it means our lower turnouts of ~35% won’t pull down the total.

[Former President tack50]

In Belgium EU parliament election turnout will be high, cause it's on the same day as the federal and regional election (and voting is mandatory, not voting = fine (though rarely prosecuted)).

On that note, I'd expect a big turnout increase here in Spain as the EU elections will be the same day as the local elections.

Which means that turnout will go up from the usual 40-45% of EU elections to around 65% or so, the usual turnout for local elections.

[AudmanOut]

The midterms

[Michael19754]

The midterms. At least a majority of the electorate in each state knows who the hell is running, in contrast to European parliament elections.

[mileslunn]

US midterms as Democrats are very motivated and want to punish Trump.  By the same token Trump's base are very motivated too and determined to make sure Democrats don't take back either house.  Since European parliament has much less impact on people's daily lives, there isn't the same motivation.  I find in European Parliament elections, they tend to be more referendums on national governments with often those angry at their national government voting for an opposition party just as a way to send a message to the national government.  Belgium will be the exception since national and regional coincide so people have more incentive to show up and if already there you might as well vote in European Parliament as well.

As someone from outside the EU, is there any change in the total number of seats as UK will be out by then or is just the total # of seats minus UK?  Loss of UK is likely bad news for Socialist parties and Conservative ones as both are stronger in UK than most EU countries.

[Aboa]

US midterms as Democrats are very motivated and want to punish Trump.  By the same token Trump's base are very motivated too and determined to make sure Democrats don't take back either house.  Since European parliament has much less impact on people's daily lives, there isn't the same motivation.  I find in European Parliament elections, they tend to be more referendums on national governments with often those angry at their national government voting for an opposition party just as a way to send a message to the national government.  Belgium will be the exception since national and regional coincide so people have more incentive to show up and if already there you might as well vote in European Parliament as well.

As someone from outside the EU, is there any change in the total number of seats as UK will be out by then or is just the total # of seats minus UK?  Loss of UK is likely bad news for Socialist parties and Conservative ones as both are stronger in UK than most EU countries.

If Brexit goes through the total number of seats will be reduced to 705 and the 28 leftover UK seats will be redistributed to somewhat lessen the disproportionality of present apportionment.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, I'll go against the majority and vote for the EU parliamentary election. Why? Mostly historical precedent.

Yes, the 2014 midterms had quite lowturnout, but the last time the US midterms had turnout above 42% was in 1970. Since 1970 there have been a lot of midterm elections under very different circumstances. Some were Dem waves, other were GOP waves, others were more neutral years. Some took place with a democratic president, some with a GOP president. Some with a popular president, others with an unpopular president.

Meanwhile turnout has been extremely constant at around 38-41%, no matter the circumstances of the election. So even if there's a democratic wave with a lot of energy, turnout will probably reach what, 42% at most? (like say, the comparable 1994 and 2010 GOP waves or the previous 2006 dem wave).

Meanwhille EU parliamentary elections seem to have reached rock bottom turnout, they can't go much lower. Yes, people have no idea who or what they are voting for but they still work as a protest against the government. In fact, maybe anti-EU parties doing well will ironically increase turnout slightly.

The difference won't be large, and a tie at around 42-43% turnout is actually what I'm predicting (with a very small advantage to the EU elections), but the US midterms would need turnout not seen in almost 50 years to be the favourites in turnout or win decisively.

[Oryxslayer]

Bumping this to say that its going to be hard, barring an EU crisis, to see turnout beat what looks to be around 50% in the US.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah I guess I was wrong. I expected higher turnout (around 42%, comparable to 2010 and 2006), but certainly not "record breaking in decades" turnout (seems to be the highest since 1970)

While I do expect turnout in the EU to beat 2014 as well, it won't beat the midterms. (45% tops)

[Tender Branson]

For the US, it was ~49% of the VEP (according to Prof. McDonald's page).

For the EU it was 43% in 2014.

But the UK had only 36%, suggesting that the UK's exit will lead to higher turnout overall. Excluding the UK already in 2014 would have meant turnout was around 44-45% then.

An increase of 4-5% could be possible next year to match US turnout.

[Tender Branson]

It’s possible that the EU will beat the US today ...

It largely depends on Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain and Poland.

[Tender Branson]

51%, says the EU parliament.

Higher than the 50.3% in the US ... highest in more than 2 decades.

EU wins.

[Oryxslayer]

51%, says the EU parliament.

Higher than the 50.3% in the US ... highest in more than 2 decades.

EU wins.

You would think that Europe knew this bet existed, what with turnout rising for the first time in...ever, correct?

[Sestak]

Yeah, I did not see this coming.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I did not see this coming.

I didn't see either coming lol. Had I been forced to predict I'd have said like 45% in both.

51%, says the EU parliament.

Higher than the 50.3% in the US ... highest in more than 2 decades.

EU wins.

You would think that Europe knew this bet existed, what with turnout rising for the first time in...ever, correct?

Yup. 2014's turnout was extremely close to 2009's, but I think it was still a very tiny drop.

[Beet]

With strongmen seemingly on the march everywhere. Rare good news for democracy this past year has been the higher turnout in the US midterms and now EU parliament election.

[Tender Branson]

With almost everything counted:

EU: 50.5%
US: 50.3%

Let’s call it a tie.