Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[DC Al Fine]

Is there a reason why the Anglophone press transliterates most Israeli party names instead of translating them? E.g. Likud instead of Consolidation.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting. Thanks.

[DavidB.]

Bibi is supposed to make an important announcement at 8

[DavidB.]

Seems like it ain't much. Just complaining about the Attorney General probably indicting him before the election and how unfair that would be. He wants to confront the state witnesses against hin in court, and otherwise he wants a live tv debate against them, lol.

[Hnv1]

Seems like it ain't much. Just complaining about the Attorney General probably indicting him before the election and how unfair that would be. He wants to confront the state witnesses against hin in court, and otherwise he wants a live tv debate against them, lol.

That was simply embarrassing. If he want's to confront the witness then he should want the trial as fast as he can. I think he's delaying the indictment as there will be embarrassing things there

Anyhow Likud decided on a framework for the list, chief buffoon Karah was essentially squeezed out.

ex generals starting bland parties in now a trend, adding to Ganz and Yaalon, Yom Tov Samia and Gal Hirsch both started their own parties. Not sure which of the two is more megalomaniac 

[jaichind]

Joint List has Split with Tibi announcing Taal is going to contest on its own. For the first Time under the new Threshold there are now going to be multiple Arab Lists running.
Also he says that he is not going to join any centre-left Government, which was never going to happen anyway.

Is there any risk that some of the split lists will be under the threshold?  Was that not the reason why there is a joint list in the first place ?

[DC Al Fine]

Here's a cool chart of political affliation by religious identity.



Why do so many Arab Christians vote for the communists? Is it because they support Palestine and aren't Islamist?

[Tintrlvr]

Here's a cool chart of political affliation by religious identity.



Why do so many Arab Christians vote for the communists? Is it because they support Palestine and aren't Islamist?

One of Hadash's MKs is an Arab Christian. I think Hadash being not only not Islamist but generally secularist obviously helps with a religious minority within a minority. And the thresholds mean there can only be so many parties, so a separate Arab Christian party is not viable.

[Hnv1]

Joint List has Split with Tibi announcing Taal is going to contest on its own. For the first Time under the new Threshold there are now going to be multiple Arab Lists running.
Also he says that he is not going to join any centre-left Government, which was never going to happen anyway.

Is there any risk that some of the split lists will be under the threshold?  Was that not the reason why there is a joint list in the first place ?

basically Tibi is quite popular with the Palestinians and I think he can get past it. Balad are the only ones that really can't, especially considering their free fall

[parochial boy]

Joint List has Split with Tibi announcing Taal is going to contest on its own. For the first Time under the new Threshold there are now going to be multiple Arab Lists running.
Also he says that he is not going to join any centre-left Government, which was never going to happen anyway.

Is there any risk that some of the split lists will be under the threshold?  Was that not the reason why there is a joint list in the first place ?

basically Tibi is quite popular with the Palestinians and I think he can get past it. Balad are the only ones that really can't, especially considering their free fall

What's the reason for his split then? I am totally ignorant, but always got the impression that his ourfit wasn't all that different to Balad (as in, the UAL and Hadash would be the ones that seem to have more distinct ideological profiles?). Wasn't he even a member of Balad back in the day?

[Hnv1]

Joint List has Split with Tibi announcing Taal is going to contest on its own. For the first Time under the new Threshold there are now going to be multiple Arab Lists running.
Also he says that he is not going to join any centre-left Government, which was never going to happen anyway.

Is there any risk that some of the split lists will be under the threshold?  Was that not the reason why there is a joint list in the first place ?

basically Tibi is quite popular with the Palestinians and I think he can get past it. Balad are the only ones that really can't, especially considering their free fall

What's the reason for his split then? I am totally ignorant, but always got the impression that his ourfit wasn't all that different to Balad (as in, the UAL and Hadash would be the ones that seem to have more distinct ideological profiles?). Wasn't he even a member of Balad back in the day?

Personal. He's more popular than Odah and doesn't think he should lead the list, plus he wants more of the list to be manned by his people instead of Balad (who are in freefall) and Ra'am.

ideology wise the new Hadash MKs and new Balad ones are quite close in opinions (Abu Rahmon from Balad is a socialist, and Hadash tabled their basic law: all citizens state, together).

Tibi was never a member of Balad, he and his movement Ta'al are basically the PLO in Israel and Tibi is very close to the PA. While Hadash and Balad are both more critical of Fatah (for different reasons), more secular, and more christian

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Apparantly Tzipi Livni wants to make an alliance with Lapis? What's her game anyway?

[danny]

Apparantly Tzipi Livni wants to make an alliance with Lapis? What's her game anyway?

I don't think there is anything complicated, Livni doesn't make it to the Knesset on her own, so she needs to run with someone else. Her realistic options are Lapid and Gantz, so if they offer her a deal then she will take it.

[Hnv1]

Smotric elected to lead the National Front, sorry, Union. Uri Ariel will probably quit politics. Smotric will also most likely lead JH to the elections

[DavidB.]

Waiting for BY, Zehut and, I guess, some new Marzel project or Otzma to all crash and burn because the refuse to cooperate, and to all end up under the threshold.

Speaking of that - what are the odds of the threshold still being lowered? Would be absurd given that the election has been called already, but I guess in Israel everything is possible.

[Hnv1]

Waiting for BY, Zehut and, I guess, some new Marzel project or Otzma to all crash and burn because the refuse to cooperate, and to all end up under the threshold.

Speaking of that - what are the odds of the threshold still being lowered? Would be absurd given that the election has been called already, but I guess in Israel everything is possible.

I'll start with the latter, very very slim, it's a basic law and changing it needs to happen with the right majority by February 20, which is unlikely considering Deri'i objection.

Zehut won't unite with anyone, and their support is overrated anyhow.

[Hnv1]

Elections occurrences:

Gantz filled his list up to the 12th slot, basically nobodies who weren't MKs before. He started speaking but nothing longer than 30 seconds

3 Labour MKs announced they're standing down, all 3 dislike Gabbay. the three are Nahmia-Warbin, Broshi, Bar. win win as both Gabbay and them are terrible people/

Likud primaries, the favorite for the new woman slot is now engulfed in an embarrassing bribery scandal where her husband (a magistrate judge) pimped her to the chief of the Israeli bar for promotion. shame shame shame

Meretz primaries are quite boring actually, no interesting new name is running. maybe Oppenheimer the former head of Peace Now, or Kopatch the former head of the green leaf party and a prat.

[DavidB.]

Very unfortunate that Hilik Bar decided not to stand in the election again: a decent man, an outstanding MK and a great representative for Israel abroad.

[FredLindq]

Interesting that Likud, Yes Atid and  Israel Resilience Party (Gantz party) could have 60 seats togheter. Togheter with Kulanu and Gesher and maybe Hatnuah tjej could have over 70 seats. Secular and liberal centreright. Would that type off coaltion work?

Netanyahu III cabinet or The thirty-third government of Israel i.e. Likud Yisrael Beiteinu, Yesh Atid, The Jewish Home, Hatnuah and this time New right would also have around 60 seats. What about this type off coaltion? Secular rightwing.

[DavidB.]

Interesting that Likud, Yes Atid and  Israel Resilience Party (Gantz party) could have 60 seats togheter. Togheter with Kulanu and Gesher and maybe Hatnuah tjej could have over 70 seats. Secular and liberal centreright. Would that type off coaltion work?

Netanyahu III cabinet or The thirty-third government of Israel i.e. Likud Yisrael Beiteinu, Yesh Atid, The Jewish Home, Hatnuah and this time New right would also have around 60 seats. What about this type off coaltion? Secular rightwing.

It depends on whether Lapid is willing to work with Netanyahu after the 2013-15 government, which consisted of Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Yesh Atid, Jewish Home and Hatnuah and which collapsed mostly over disagreements between Netanyahu and Lapid (and Livni). I would think, though, that Likud wants the New Right to be included in order not to be in a coalition with no other real right-wing parties. On the other hand Sarah Netanyahu may be sick of Bennett and Shaked so who knows?

[Hnv1]

Gantz had his public speech while simultaneously agreeing with Yaalon that he will be his number 2.

I think the speech went well for him and puts him on the surge, he did promise civil unions and rights to the reform Jews which is a beginners error for a coalition, but he definitely placed himself as contending Bibi now.

Yaalon brings with him Yoaz Hendel and Zvi Hauser, both former Bibi aides and coming from the right.

[DavidB.]

Channel 13 poll:

Likud 30
Israel Resilience 24
Yesh Atid 9
Ta'al 8
Joint List 6
Labor 6
New Right 6
UTJ 6
Shas 5
Yisrael Beytenu 4
Bayit Yehudi 4
Kulanu 4
Meretz 4
Gesher 4

Kan poll:

Likud 31
Israel Resilience 23
Yesh Atid 9
New Right 8
Labor 8
Joint List 6
UTJ 6
Meretz 6
Ta'al 6
Yisrael Beytenu 5
Bayit Yehudi 4
Kulanu 4
Shas 4

Picture seems clear. Gantz is the guy everyone's talking about and is gaining even more, almost solely at the expense of the center-left. And Bennett's project unsurprisingly fails to take off.

If this becomes a two-horse race between Bibi and Gantz, I suppose Avoda, YA and Bennett could end up losing even more. Lieberman and Kahlon are awkwardly close to the threshold.

[DC Al Fine]

Why is Ta'al doing so well?

[Tintrlvr]

Why is Ta'al doing so well?

Tibi has always been personally popular among Arab Israelis, and I imagine his break with the Joint List has gotten him a lot more press than usual. Ta'al+Joint List is only polling one seat above or below last time around, which is pure noise.

Does look like his split with the Joint List is even enough that they will both easily clear the threshold.

[Famous Mortimer]

From their membership roster, it looks like Gantz' party is just Likud minus Netanyahu. Albeit, while trying to remain intentionally vague about it.