Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Oryxslayer]

Current totals:

Likud: 1,138,772 - 26.45% __________36 Seats
B&W: 1,123,929 - 26.11% __________ 35 Seats
Shas: 257,869 - 5.99% ______________8 Seats
UTJ: 248,490 - 5.77% _______________7 Seats
Hadash-Ta'al: 193,267 - 4.49% ________6 Seats   
Labour: 191,323 - 4.44% _____________6 Seats
YB: 172,933 - 4.02% ________________5 Seats
URWP: 159,303 - 3.70% _____________5 Seats
Meretz: 156,217 - 3.63% _____________4 Seats
Kulanu: 152,568 - 3.54% _____________4 Seats
Balad-Ra'am: 143,844 - 3.34% ________4 Seats
New Right: 138,437 - 3.22%
Zehut: 117,587 - 2.73%

Think this is the final results? 65-55 seat division as on Tuesday. Kulanu can be given the middle finger as before, but if they are joining Likud, then all hands need to be on deck for the All-Right government.

[Former President tack50]

Looking at those results, I wonder, what would happen if small parties lost a bit more of support to their closest ideological ally?

The only parties that aren't close to the threshold are Likud, B&W, UTJ and Shas. On paper, a result like this wouldn't be that unthinkable:


Likud: 31%
B&W: 30%
Shas: 6%
UTJ 6%
Hadash-Taal: 3%
Labour: 3%
YB: 3%
URWP: 3%
Meretz: 3%
Kulanu: 3%
Balad-Raam: 3%
New Right: 3%
Zehut: 3%

That would mean 27% of the vote being wasted and going directly to the thrash can.

It's a big assumption, but if Israeli politics somehow becomes polarized between 2 parties I could see it happening. Even with Israel's proportional system that doesn't mean PR automatically means a multi party system.

Of course in practice I imagine we would see several mergers well before that happens. So for example the 2 Arab coalitions would merge. Same for Labor and Meretz I assume.

[DavidB.]

So Ben-Gvir is in after all, I guess? Or not? And 61 without Kulanu. Not sure if that matters, though, as the absorption of Kulanu in Likud is clearly impending.

[Vosem]

So Ben-Gvir is in after all, I guess? Or not? And 61 without Kulanu. Not sure if that matters, though, as the absorption of Kulanu in Likud is clearly impending.

Nope. Ben-Ari would’ve been, but Supreme Court knockouts and post-deadline withdrawals (this also happened to Likud’s original #19, who hadn’t disclaimed his government job properly) cause everybody below them to move up a slot after list finalization, regardless of internal party rules, so Ben-Gvir moved from #8 to #7 and is not in, though he plausibly could be in like 2023 or so if there aren’t early elections.

[DavidB.]

So Ben-Gvir is in after all, I guess? Or not? And 61 without Kulanu. Not sure if that matters, though, as the absorption of Kulanu in Likud is clearly impending.

Nope. Ben-Ari would’ve been, but Supreme Court knockouts and post-deadline withdrawals (this also happened to Likud’s original #19, who hadn’t disclaimed his government job properly) cause everybody below them to move up a slot after list finalization, regardless of internal party rules, so Ben-Gvir moved from #8 to #7 and is not in, though he plausibly could be in like 2023 or so if there aren’t early elections.

I understand that Ben-Gvir was at #7. The question is whether he could get in under the Norwegian law, under which the two URP ministers could resign from the Knesset upon becoming ministers. A friend of mine said that only one minister can resign from the Knesset seat under this law, meaning that the number #6 on the list would get in but Ben-Gvir still wouldn't. But I see others who say both could resign (presumably Smotrich and Peretz), meaning the #7, i.e. Ben-Gvir, could get in.

[Vosem]

So Ben-Gvir is in after all, I guess? Or not? And 61 without Kulanu. Not sure if that matters, though, as the absorption of Kulanu in Likud is clearly impending.

Nope. Ben-Ari would’ve been, but Supreme Court knockouts and post-deadline withdrawals (this also happened to Likud’s original #19, who hadn’t disclaimed his government job properly) cause everybody below them to move up a slot after list finalization, regardless of internal party rules, so Ben-Gvir moved from #8 to #7 and is not in, though he plausibly could be in like 2023 or so if there aren’t early elections.

I understand that Ben-Gvir was at #7. The question is whether he could get in under the Norwegian law, under which the two URP ministers could resign from the Knesset upon becoming ministers. A friend of mine said that only one minister can resign from the Knesset seat under this law, meaning that the number #6 on the list would get in but Ben-Gvir still wouldn't. But I see others who say both could resign (presumably Smotrich and Peretz), meaning the #7, i.e. Ben-Gvir, could get in.

Jerusalem Post reports in English that each party is limited to one resignation-and-replacement under the Norwegian Law (https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/New-Shas-MK-Yigal-Guetta-sworn-in-442774), though Wikipedia reports that a bunch of Shas people resigned under the Norwegian Law, so they could be wrong.

More broadly, of the 120 members of the Knesset elected in 2015, by 2019 twenty-nine (!) had resigned for one reason or another. Given that Ben-Gvir needs two of five people ahead of him to step aside, and we can model these as five independent variables, each with a 29/120 possibility, two of which need to be successes, his odds of getting in are...(https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx) ...0.3496. A little better than 1 in 3.

[DavidB.]

Haha, thanks for that. So my friend was right. But I don't think your calculation is right (or at least it doesn't take into account the way the odds change based on the Norwegian law). If URP apply the Norwegian law clause and one of Smotrich/Peretz resigns from the Knesset, Ben-Gvir only needs one URP MK to resign.

[Beet]

The Israeli left hasn't won an election since 1998. I remember in the 2008 campaign when liberals were holding up that Livni woman as their answer to Sarah Palin.

[adma]

The inflated expectations of Feiglin seem to me symptomatic of young internet geeks skewing the narrative, or something along those lines...

[Vosem]

Haha, thanks for that. So my friend was right. But I don't think your calculation is right (or at least it doesn't take into account the way the odds change based on the Norwegian law). If URP apply the Norwegian law clause and one of Smotrich/Peretz resigns from the Knesset, Ben-Gvir only needs one URP MK to resign.

Well, sure -- I counted Norwegian Law resignations along with the others, unless whoever resigned ended up returning to the Knesset (ie, didn't count Liberman). If one resignation is a guarantee but you discount Norwegian Law resignations (and others that clearly don't apply, like rotation agreements in the Joint List and UTJ), you get 19 resignations over a period of 4 years -- so at least 1 out of 4 resignations with an odds of 19/120, which is very slightly less than half (0.4982).

This also discounts the fact that many Knessets do not last 4 years; of twenty Knessets Israel has had to date, 7/20 = 35% went to early elections, in which case Ben-Gvir's odds are significantly lower. But looking at how many resignations there are over time for something that isn't a paper would be a bitch (you could also do this by party and discover that in parties with rotation agreements like UTJ your odds of getting in from a couple seats below what the party gets are much higher than in small parties with norms of lengthy Knesset service like Meretz, Hadash, or Shas).

[Walmart_shopper]

There is a lot of talk lately about a secular national unity government with Liberman and Kaholavan. It's not clear if there's anything to those rumors, but apparently Lapid and Liberman, who actually share many of the same core political priorities, met in Europe to discuss a unity government. Liberman has definitely been acting a little strange since the election, not at all embracing the idea of entering into another religious-right coalition with the Haredim. So we'll see if there's anything to this.

The political weakness for the right wing in Israel has always been its reliance on religious parties in an very secular country. A lot of what the Likud does, even the ugly stuff like the nation-state law, is fairly popular. But settlers and the Haredim are some of the most disliked groups in Israeli society and especially politics. The majority of Israelis share almost none of Haredi political priorities (huge majorities support civil marriage, separation of religion and state, breaking up the chief rabbinate, public transit on Saturday, drafting Haredim, gay rights, etc). At some point people are going to get tired of their Likud votes empowering Haredim.

Also, both UTJ leader Yaakov Litzman and Aryeh Deri (of Shas)  are likely to be indicted within the next year for crimes arguably more serious than Netanyahu's.  I never thought we'd get to the point where Liberman is the least corrupt leader in government, but, alas. In any case, the Haredim are loyal coalition partners but they are very unpopular and Liberman seems pretty tired of dealing with them. So it's possible that Bibi could use Liberman's intransigence as a ruse for bringing Kaholavan into to the coalition. It would also be massively among the public.

[SInNYC]

But settlers and the Haredim are some of the most disliked groups in Israeli society and especially politics. The majority of Israelis share almost none of Haredi political priorities (huge majorities support civil marriage, separation of religion and state, breaking up the chief rabbinate, public transit on Saturday, drafting Haredim, gay rights, etc). At some point people are going to get tired of their Likud votes empowering Haredim.

Is that point before or after the Haredim become the majority of Israeli Jews? The Haredi population is exploding, and current official projections are for them to be >20% of Israeli Jews by 2028 and half  by 2060. This excludes settlers and others who may be Haredim-friendly.

Assuming Netanyahu succeeds in annexing the West Bank, this makes for interesting demographics down the line with a Palestinian underclass that may or may not have any rights, an economic drain of Haredim, and the remainder having to support the economy. Of course if Haredi growth levels off (as is starting to happen for Palestinians), things ease up a bit.

[Famous Mortimer]

There is a lot of talk lately about a secular national unity government with Liberman and Kaholavan. It's not clear if there's anything to those rumors, but apparently Lapid and Liberman, who actually share many of the same core political priorities, met in Europe to discuss a unity government. Liberman has definitely been acting a little strange since the election, not at all embracing the idea of entering into another religious-right coalition with the Haredim. So we'll see if there's anything to this.

The political weakness for the right wing in Israel has always been its reliance on religious parties in an very secular country. A lot of what the Likud does, even the ugly stuff like the nation-state law, is fairly popular. But settlers and the Haredim are some of the most disliked groups in Israeli society and especially politics. The majority of Israelis share almost none of Haredi political priorities (huge majorities support civil marriage, separation of religion and state, breaking up the chief rabbinate, public transit on Saturday, drafting Haredim, gay rights, etc). At some point people are going to get tired of their Likud votes empowering Haredim.

Also, both UTJ leader Yaakov Litzman and Aryeh Deri (of Shas)  are likely to be indicted within the next year for crimes arguably more serious than Netanyahu's.  I never thought we'd get to the point where Liberman is the least corrupt leader in government, but, alas. In any case, the Haredim are loyal coalition partners but they are very unpopular and Liberman seems pretty tired of dealing with them. So it's possible that Bibi could use Liberman's intransigence as a ruse for bringing Kaholavan into to the coalition. It would also be massively among the public.

Who is Kaholavan?

[Mike88]

There is a lot of talk lately about a secular national unity government with Liberman and Kaholavan. It's not clear if there's anything to those rumors, but apparently Lapid and Liberman, who actually share many of the same core political priorities, met in Europe to discuss a unity government. Liberman has definitely been acting a little strange since the election, not at all embracing the idea of entering into another religious-right coalition with the Haredim. So we'll see if there's anything to this.

The political weakness for the right wing in Israel has always been its reliance on religious parties in an very secular country. A lot of what the Likud does, even the ugly stuff like the nation-state law, is fairly popular. But settlers and the Haredim are some of the most disliked groups in Israeli society and especially politics. The majority of Israelis share almost none of Haredi political priorities (huge majorities support civil marriage, separation of religion and state, breaking up the chief rabbinate, public transit on Saturday, drafting Haredim, gay rights, etc). At some point people are going to get tired of their Likud votes empowering Haredim.

Also, both UTJ leader Yaakov Litzman and Aryeh Deri (of Shas)  are likely to be indicted within the next year for crimes arguably more serious than Netanyahu's.  I never thought we'd get to the point where Liberman is the least corrupt leader in government, but, alas. In any case, the Haredim are loyal coalition partners but they are very unpopular and Liberman seems pretty tired of dealing with them. So it's possible that Bibi could use Liberman's intransigence as a ruse for bringing Kaholavan into to the coalition. It would also be massively among the public.

Who is Kaholavan?

Kahol Lavan is the Blue and White coalition, i assume.

[Walmart_shopper]

But settlers and the Haredim are some of the most disliked groups in Israeli society and especially politics. The majority of Israelis share almost none of Haredi political priorities (huge majorities support civil marriage, separation of religion and state, breaking up the chief rabbinate, public transit on Saturday, drafting Haredim, gay rights, etc). At some point people are going to get tired of their Likud votes empowering Haredim.

Is that point before or after the Haredim become the majority of Israeli Jews? The Haredi population is exploding, and current official projections are for them to be >20% of Israeli Jews by 2028 and half  by 2060. This excludes settlers and others who may be Haredim-friendly.

Assuming Netanyahu succeeds in annexing the West Bank, this makes for interesting demographics down the line with a Palestinian underclass that may or may not have any rights, an economic drain of Haredim, and the remainder having to support the economy. Of course if Haredi growth levels off (as is starting to happen for Palestinians), things ease up a bit.

Well, a couple things...

Bibi's annexation idea included only the actual settlements, probably includeming area c. This would add all of the Jews in the West Bank but only a fraction of the Palestinians. It's a profoundly dumb idea, but it's not nearly as radical and demographically meaningful as annexing the whole West Bank.

Also, the Haredi demographic bomb is one of the most overrated in Israeli social and political discourse. Haredi birthrates are dropping, and the modernization and secularization of the community is happening pretty rapidly, often due to basic economic necessity that goodies from the Haredim in government don't help with. The joke is that Haredi women give birth to a greater number of secular babies than secular women, because the rate of people leaving Orthodox Judaism is so rapid.

I think more likely is that we reach some kind of equilibrium where the population is basically a third Arab, third secular Jewish, and a third Orthodox. As somebody not particularly invested in the idea of Zionism I don't really mind that outcome. But most Jewish Israelis probably would.

[Walmart_shopper]

There is a lot of talk lately about a secular national unity government with Liberman and Kaholavan. It's not clear if there's anything to those rumors, but apparently Lapid and Liberman, who actually share many of the same core political priorities, met in Europe to discuss a unity government. Liberman has definitely been acting a little strange since the election, not at all embracing the idea of entering into another religious-right coalition with the Haredim. So we'll see if there's anything to this.

The political weakness for the right wing in Israel has always been its reliance on religious parties in an very secular country. A lot of what the Likud does, even the ugly stuff like the nation-state law, is fairly popular. But settlers and the Haredim are some of the most disliked groups in Israeli society and especially politics. The majority of Israelis share almost none of Haredi political priorities (huge majorities support civil marriage, separation of religion and state, breaking up the chief rabbinate, public transit on Saturday, drafting Haredim, gay rights, etc). At some point people are going to get tired of their Likud votes empowering Haredim.

Also, both UTJ leader Yaakov Litzman and Aryeh Deri (of Shas)  are likely to be indicted within the next year for crimes arguably more serious than Netanyahu's.  I never thought we'd get to the point where Liberman is the least corrupt leader in government, but, alas. In any case, the Haredim are loyal coalition partners but they are very unpopular and Liberman seems pretty tired of dealing with them. So it's possible that Bibi could use Liberman's intransigence as a ruse for bringing Kaholavan into to the coalition. It would also be massively among the public.

Who is Kaholavan?

Kahol Lavan is the Blue and White coalition, i assume.

Yes, Kahol Lavan simply means "Blue White."

[Velasco]

Bibi's annexation idea included only the actual settlements, probably includeming area c. This would add all of the Jews in the West Bank but only a fraction of the Palestinians. It's a profoundly dumb idea, but it's not nearly as radical and demographically meaningful as annexing the whole West Bank.

I think posting a map of Area C might help to get the idea. This is Atlas Forum afer all

[DC Al Fine]

But settlers and the Haredim are some of the most disliked groups in Israeli society and especially politics. The majority of Israelis share almost none of Haredi political priorities (huge majorities support civil marriage, separation of religion and state, breaking up the chief rabbinate, public transit on Saturday, drafting Haredim, gay rights, etc). At some point people are going to get tired of their Likud votes empowering Haredim.

Is that point before or after the Haredim become the majority of Israeli Jews? The Haredi population is exploding, and current official projections are for them to be >20% of Israeli Jews by 2028 and half  by 2060. This excludes settlers and others who may be Haredim-friendly.

Assuming Netanyahu succeeds in annexing the West Bank, this makes for interesting demographics down the line with a Palestinian underclass that may or may not have any rights, an economic drain of Haredim, and the remainder having to support the economy. Of course if Haredi growth levels off (as is starting to happen for Palestinians), things ease up a bit.

Well, a couple things...

Bibi's annexation idea included only the actual settlements, probably includeming area c. This would add all of the Jews in the West Bank but only a fraction of the Palestinians. It's a profoundly dumb idea, but it's not nearly as radical and demographically meaningful as annexing the whole West Bank.

Also, the Haredi demographic bomb is one of the most overrated in Israeli social and political discourse. Haredi birthrates are dropping, and the modernization and secularization of the community is happening pretty rapidly, often due to basic economic necessity that goodies from the Haredim in government don't help with. The joke is that Haredi women give birth to a greater number of secular babies than secular women, because the rate of people leaving Orthodox Judaism is so rapid.

I think more likely is that we reach some kind of equilibrium where the population is basically a third Arab, third secular Jewish, and a third Orthodox. As somebody not particularly invested in the idea of Zionism I don't really mind that outcome. But most Jewish Israelis probably would.

All the English sources I can find are either agnostic about or indicate the opposite of what you are asserting in the text I've bolded.



The Haredim appaear to have an excellent retention rate. The trend instead seems to be towards polarization, with  non-Haredi religious Jews trending secular with a minority going Haredi.



Even at a lesser retention rate, the Haredi seem to be gaining on the non-Haredi Jewish population.



Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.



Unfortunately, I couldn't find any sources on the change in Haredi birth rates or how many babies younger Jewish women are having by sect, but it seems like Haredi birth rates have quite a ways to fall before its comparable to secular Jews.

Do you have any other sources, perhaps something in Hebrew that I could run through Google Translate? I suspect you might be taking an overly opimistic view of Israeli secularism, perhaps due to the pillarization of Israeli society.

[Oryxslayer]

Bibi's annexation idea included only the actual settlements, probably includeming area c. This would add all of the Jews in the West Bank but only a fraction of the Palestinians. It's a profoundly dumb idea, but it's not nearly as radical and demographically meaningful as annexing the whole West Bank.

I think posting a map of Area C might help to get the idea. This is Atlas Forum afer all

And even that is a confusing map at best, since it includes nature reserves and non-populated areas.  I currently have downloaded a land use shapefile (to map the election to cities and produce geographic analysis deeper then the ynet map) and its the closest map  to whats probably 'annexable.' Settlement zones with israeli rather than arab names, and their connecting roads - there are more then on the election map. There a bunch of areas there for security or ecological reasons. It frankly would end up looking like a gerrymander, what with the much more limited tentacles reaching to every place with Israeli names and the associating residents.

[Walmart_shopper]

But settlers and the Haredim are some of the most disliked groups in Israeli society and especially politics. The majority of Israelis share almost none of Haredi political priorities (huge majorities support civil marriage, separation of religion and state, breaking up the chief rabbinate, public transit on Saturday, drafting Haredim, gay rights, etc). At some point people are going to get tired of their Likud votes empowering Haredim.

Is that point before or after the Haredim become the majority of Israeli Jews? The Haredi population is exploding, and current official projections are for them to be >20% of Israeli Jews by 2028 and half  by 2060. This excludes settlers and others who may be Haredim-friendly.

Assuming Netanyahu succeeds in annexing the West Bank, this makes for interesting demographics down the line with a Palestinian underclass that may or may not have any rights, an economic drain of Haredim, and the remainder having to support the economy. Of course if Haredi growth levels off (as is starting to happen for Palestinians), things ease up a bit.

Well, a couple things...

Bibi's annexation idea included only the actual settlements, probably includeming area c. This would add all of the Jews in the West Bank but only a fraction of the Palestinians. It's a profoundly dumb idea, but it's not nearly as radical and demographically meaningful as annexing the whole West Bank.

Also, the Haredi demographic bomb is one of the most overrated in Israeli social and political discourse. Haredi birthrates are dropping, and the modernization and secularization of the community is happening pretty rapidly, often due to basic economic necessity that goodies from the Haredim in government don't help with. The joke is that Haredi women give birth to a greater number of secular babies than secular women, because the rate of people leaving Orthodox Judaism is so rapid.

I think more likely is that we reach some kind of equilibrium where the population is basically a third Arab, third secular Jewish, and a third Orthodox. As somebody not particularly invested in the idea of Zionism I don't really mind that outcome. But most Jewish Israelis probably would.

All the English sources I can find are either agnostic about or indicate the opposite of what you are asserting in the text I've bolded.



The Haredim appaear to have an excellent retention rate. The trend instead seems to be towards polarization, with  non-Haredi religious Jews trending secular with a minority going Haredi.



Even at a lesser retention rate, the Haredi seem to be gaining on the non-Haredi Jewish population.



Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.



Unfortunately, I couldn't find any sources on the change in Haredi birth rates or how many babies younger Jewish women are having by sect, but it seems like Haredi birth rates have quite a ways to fall before its comparable to secular Jews.

Do you have any other sources, perhaps something in Hebrew that I could run through Google Translate? I suspect you might be taking an overly opimistic view of Israeli secularism, perhaps due to the pillarization of Israeli society.

Here you go:

http://taubcenter.org.il/are-israeli-jews-becoming-more-secular/

Here's a multi-part series from Channel 13 (sorry for the Hebrew): https://13news.co.il/10news/mmnews/134372

And the right-wing Makor Rishon investigates the massive number of graduates of religious high schools leaving religion (also Hebrew) :

https://www.makorrishon.co.il/culture/104397/

I think I made it clear that the Haredi population is set to grow. If they end up at 30 or 35 percent of the population, as I predicted, that's a whopping 300 percent growth from the 9 or 10 percent they're at today.

[Velasco]

And even that is a confusing map at best, since it includes nature reserves and non-populated areas.  I currently have downloaded a land use shapefile (to map the election to cities and produce geographic analysis deeper then the ynet map) and its the closest map  to whats probably 'annexable.' Settlement zones with israeli rather than arab names, and their connecting roads - there are more then on the election map. There a bunch of areas there for security or ecological reasons. It frankly would end up looking like a gerrymander, what with the much more limited tentacles reaching to every place with Israeli names and the associating residents.

I don't think so. The map's legend already says Area C incorporates nature reserves. I think the idea of annexing Area C (thus leaving encircled Areas A and B unincorporated) is annexing the maximum amount of territory (settlements, connecting roads, empty spaces in between) with the minimum amount of Palestinians. It's not so difficult to get the logic behind this.

[Vosem]

I wrote up a long post that got eaten, but in summary, the Hilonim in Israel are one of the few secular developed populations that are above demographic replacement, most switching among religious groups is to the next less observant group (though, in general, most people stay where they are), and there are reasons to suspect all non-Haredim are a more natural unit than all religious Jews (to wit, the former live in segregated communities, attend segregated schools, and vote for their own political tendencies; non-Haredi groups tend to mix more, and many Hilonim practice certain religious customs; for instance a majority report sometimes lighting candles on the Sabbath, which is nearly unheard-of among secular American Jews). Haredi birthrates are falling while the birthrates of other demographics are rising; while Haredim are going to grow as a sector of society, they're not going to make up a majority of Israeli Jews anytime in the next century. Religious Jews, sure, but I don't think there's much threat to the State of Israel from people who identify as traditional or national-religious but do serve in the military and study secular subjects alongside religious ones.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Intend to make some maps. If anyone has data at a higher level than municipality (sub-district maybe?) that would be useful, but if not then it'll be straight away into groups of municipalities and results within certain large ones, most probably starting with the Tel Aviv metropolitan region.

[Oryxslayer]

Intend to make some maps. If anyone has data at a higher level than municipality (sub-district maybe?) that would be useful, but if not then it'll be straight away into groups of municipalities and results within certain large ones, most probably starting with the Tel Aviv metropolitan region.

I have been cleaning up the government data, and now have it matched to the towns like on the Ynet map. As you can see from the lower right hand corner, there is already analysis going on. I'm already planning to do a spacial join to the admin 1 level+WB (image 2, minus Haifa and Sharon cities), if you can direct me to shapefiles for any other levels you like, it might make it into my analysis post tomorrow on twitter. I'll also be able to give the data from said analysis.

[Oryxslayer]

Intend to make some maps. If anyone has data at a higher level than municipality (sub-district maybe?) that would be useful, but if not then it'll be straight away into groups of municipalities and results within certain large ones, most probably starting with the Tel Aviv metropolitan region.

I have been cleaning up the government data, and now have it matched to the towns like on the Ynet map. As you can see from the lower right hand corner, there is already analysis going on. I'm already planning to do a spacial join to the admin 1 level+WB (image 2, minus Haifa and Sharon cities), if you can direct me to shapefiles for any other levels you like, it might make it into my analysis post tomorrow on twitter. I'll also be able to give the data from said analysis.

Related to the map posted, can anyone tell me where Israelis who live outside of these municipal boundaries vote?

I believe Israelis drive to said municipalities where they are registered - the county is very small remember. This is important in the Bedouin communities since they have to be bused into the southern towns to votes. The govt data is literally in this town based format - the only group outside of said municipalities is the 'dual envelope' special votes like the military. The basemap is a land use shapefile with areas like agriculture, roads, natural parks, industry and the like removed. US counties likely look similar if we cut out all the empty space.