Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[America Needs R'hllor]

From their membership roster, it looks like Gantz' party is just Likud minus Netanyahu. Albeit, while trying to remain intentionally vague about it.

Nah, not really. Gantz's party is vastly different to the clowncar that is Likud, and in any case Ya'alon isn't that right wing at this point.

[DC Al Fine]

Why is Ta'al doing so well?

Tibi has always been personally popular among Arab Israelis, and I imagine his break with the Joint List has gotten him a lot more press than usual. Ta'al+Joint List is only polling one seat above or below last time around, which is pure noise.

Does look like his split with the Joint List is even enough that they will both easily clear the threshold.

Yes that's what I meant. Ta'al only had 1 MK? but now they have large chunk of the old Joint List vote. It's a bit surprising.

[VPH]

I've read quite a bit about Israeli politics and recently spent time in Israel but still have this question: What do the Arab parties differ on? Like I know Hadash is broadly a "joint Jewish-Arab" Communist party, but what makes the others different? Is one less extreme than the others?

[Hnv1]

I've read quite a bit about Israeli politics and recently spent time in Israel but still have this question: What do the Arab parties differ on? Like I know Hadash is broadly a "joint Jewish-Arab" Communist party, but what makes the others different? Is one less extreme than the others?

Behind the scenes Hadash was very Christian party, balad gave room for the young secular Muslims, the differences between them shrink. Hadash was also more a party of the north.

Anyway Hadash picked its list today. 3/4 MKs retained, the new token Jew is Ofer Kassif who has a track record of having a big mouth

[Vosem]

I've read quite a bit about Israeli politics and recently spent time in Israel but still have this question: What do the Arab parties differ on? Like I know Hadash is broadly a "joint Jewish-Arab" Communist party, but what makes the others different? Is one less extreme than the others?

My understanding back when there were three is that Hadash was a communist party, with a majority Arab membership but with some Jewish support, while Balad was an Arab nationalist party that had ties to the Syrian government and Ra'am (the United Arab List) was a religious Muslim party. Ta'al, which was small in the 2000s but has grown since then and has run on joint lists with all of these parties, is a Palestinian nationalist party.

"Zionist parties" do not enter government with non-Zionist parties (who do not recognize the Jewish nature of the state of Israel; this means the Arab parties), but in the past left-wing governments have accepted support from left-wing non-nationalist Arab parties (Hadash and Mada, a broadly left-wing exclusively-Arab breakaway from Labor which is since defunct) without giving them positions in the Cabinet. Whether such cooperation is possible today is questionable -- from Balad it is almost certainly not.

One of the underrated ways in which the Israeli left has become weaker is the shift in the Arab vote from supporting the Israeli left to supporting non-Zionist parties that the Israeli left's base doesn't approve of coalitions with, meaning that they need to win over a greater percentage of the Jewish vote than they needed in the past to form government, which is very difficult.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes that's what I meant. Ta'al only had 1 MK? but now they have large chunk of the old Joint List vote. It's a bit surprising.

Ah, but why should we assume that widespread discontent with politics as usual be only restricted to the majority ethnicity?

[Tintrlvr]

Why is Ta'al doing so well?

Tibi has always been personally popular among Arab Israelis, and I imagine his break with the Joint List has gotten him a lot more press than usual. Ta'al+Joint List is only polling one seat above or below last time around, which is pure noise.

Does look like his split with the Joint List is even enough that they will both easily clear the threshold.

Yes that's what I meant. Ta'al only had 1 MK? but now they have large chunk of the old Joint List vote. It's a bit surprising.

They were originally allocated 2 MKs but lost one to rotations. I guess Tibi didn't negotiate well on the Joint List nominations last time around, and I have to imagine that was a big part of why he decided to go it alone this time.

[danny]

Jewish Home has selected Rafi Peretz, the former head Rabbi in the army, as its new leader. His first job is going to be figuring out with whom the party will run with.

[DavidB.]

Jewish Home has selected Rafi Peretz, the former head Rabbi in the army, as its new leader. His first job is going to be figuring out with whom the party will run with.

So what's the deal with Smotrich?

[America Needs R'hllor]

I've read quite a bit about Israeli politics and recently spent time in Israel but still have this question: What do the Arab parties differ on? Like I know Hadash is broadly a "joint Jewish-Arab" Communist party, but what makes the others different? Is one less extreme than the others?

In addition to what others have said, Balad I believe is more of a secular Palestinian nationalist party, Ra'am is an Islamist party representing the southern brandh of the Islamic Movement and is strong with the Bedouin of the south, while Ta'al is focused on Israeli Arab issues and is more secular.

Jewish Home has selected Rafi Peretz, the former head Rabbi in the army, as its new leader. His first job is going to be figuring out with whom the party will run with.

So what's the deal with Smotrich?

He's adamant about leading the list. He says that Peretz is politically inexperienced so he should lead the JH, and appears to be in a position of power anyway as the far right Marzel types and Eli Yishai will probably merge with him, ensuring he'll pass the threshold, while the JH's only other option is to join Likud in very low places Netanyahu reserved.

In other news, Netanyahu urged Smotrich to merge with these people, so basically, the Israeli Prime Minister is promoting the entrance of vile, violent racists into the Knesset. Sad.

[Vosem]

Jewish Home has selected Rafi Peretz, the former head Rabbi in the army, as its new leader. His first job is going to be figuring out with whom the party will run with.

So what's the deal with Smotrich?

Smotrich is the head of the Tkuma faction (or party), which was a founding member of the National Union back in 1999 but has run on a joint list with Jewish Home (which is larger) in 2013 and 2015. (In 2015 specifically, they were allocated the second, eighth, thirteenth, and seventeenth spots on the Jewish Home list; Uri Ariel and Bezalel Smotrich were elected from the second and eighth spots, respectively. Tkuma has suffered from a lack of differentiation from the broader Jewish Home; for instance, current Deputy Minister of Defense Eli Ben-Dahan was originally a Tkuma member, but switched to the broader Jewish Home in 2015 so he could run in the primaries (where he came second after Ayelet Shaked, and so fourth on the main list since spots one and two were reserved for Bennett and Ariel).

Smotrich is prominent on social media and might be the most famous person running in the Jewish Home in 2019, so he wants the top spot for himself, but in the past couple elections the Tkuma leader has been second instead of heading the list. Why they don't just merge is unclear to me -- Uri Ariel ran on a platform of merging them for the Tkuma leadership, but Smotrich beat him.

Anyway...any thoughts from our Israeli posters on what to watch for in the Likud primaries on Tuesday? English-language pieces I've read have been very rudimentary.

[DavidB.]

Oh, I'm well aware of who he is - my question was indeed what he was going to do now that BY picked Peretz. Good piece of background info though! And good to learn Bibi wants a Smotrich-led BY to reach the threshold.

[Vosem]

It looks like today Netanyahu and former MK (2003-2014) and lower-ranking minister (2009-2014) Gideon Sa'ar, who came in first in the Likud primaries in 2009 and 2013 but has been on a sabbatical from politics for several years before returning this year, are openly attacking each other, with Bibi accusing Sa'ar of plotting to overthrow him in a coup and worried that if Sa'ar can place first in the primary such a coup might even be plausible:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-steps-up-attacks-on-likud-rival-saar-ahead-of-primary/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-likud-primaries-netanyahu-endorses-former-aide-accused-in-submarine-scandal/

The fight over the first slot in the Likud (whether it will go to Sa'ar or someone else -- the fact that who the "someone else" might be is unclear makes me think that Sa'ar is probably favored here), and the fight over the slot reserved for a new candidate from Tel Aviv (where Bibi's aide David Sharan and Sa'ar's aide Michal Shir are going up against each other; this is for position #29, which is pretty heavily favored, if not quite certain, to make it into the next Knesset) have become important proxy battles, though Bibi and Sa'ar have begun attacking each other openly. So, Israelis: is it plausible that Sa'ar could actually try to overthrow Netanyahu, especially if the latter is indicted? Would he be a stronger candidate, since he lacks Netanyahu's skeletons, or weaker since he is less experienced?

Also, nice to see that MK Amir Ohana, the first openly-gay right-wing member of the Knesset, who entered in 2015 off the very marginal slot #32, has become very popular and is apparently favored to perform well in the primaries.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Jewish Home has selected Rafi Peretz, the former head Rabbi in the army, as its new leader. His first job is going to be figuring out with whom the party will run with.

So what's the deal with Smotrich?

Smotrich is the head of the Tkuma faction (or party), which was a founding member of the National Union back in 1999 but has run on a joint list with Jewish Home (which is larger) in 2013 and 2015. (In 2015 specifically, they were allocated the second, eighth, thirteenth, and seventeenth spots on the Jewish Home list; Uri Ariel and Bezalel Smotrich were elected from the second and eighth spots, respectively. Tkuma has suffered from a lack of differentiation from the broader Jewish Home; for instance, current Deputy Minister of Defense Eli Ben-Dahan was originally a Tkuma member, but switched to the broader Jewish Home in 2015 so he could run in the primaries (where he came second after Ayelet Shaked, and so fourth on the main list since spots one and two were reserved for Bennett and Ariel).

Smotrich is prominent on social media and might be the most famous person running in the Jewish Home in 2019, so he wants the top spot for himself, but in the past couple elections the Tkuma leader has been second instead of heading the list. Why they don't just merge is unclear to me -- Uri Ariel ran on a platform of merging them for the Tkuma leadership, but Smotrich beat him.

Anyway...any thoughts from our Israeli posters on what to watch for in the Likud primaries on Tuesday? English-language pieces I've read have been very rudimentary.

There are a few things that personally interest me and probably other people:

Former Minister Gideon Sa'ar has been attacked by Bibi with bizarre conspiracies that he's trying to undermine him, so it'll be interesting if he can achieve a high place despite the PM's hostility. It'll also be curious to see what positions former Kulanu Minister Galant and former Jerusalem Mayor Barkat achieve. Also, watch for the competition between different Likud Ministers who might aim to inherit Netanyahu's position when that day comes- Yisrael Katz, Miri Regev, Gilad Erdan and maybe Yuli Edelstein. Lastly, at least some current MKs will not be placed in realistic positions, so it's curious to see who- Minister Ayoob Kara will almost certainly not get in, maybe Avi Dichter or Tzipi Hotovely, who struggled in primaries in the past? I'm personally also curious to see what happens with the controversial and, in my opinion, really vile MK Oren Hazan. I pray he'll get off, especially after his cheap populist attacks on my university, but I doubt it because this type of rhetoric is attractive in modern Likud. So, does he improve his position?

[DavidB.]

How many votes do Likud members get to cast? And I assume the special candidates for the Galil etc. are decided on by the Likud members who reside in these areas?

[America Needs R'hllor]

How many votes do Likud members get to cast? And I assume the special candidates for the Galil etc. are decided on by the Likud members who reside in these areas?

I'm not entirely sure as I'm not a Likud member. I do believe, from what I know about our process in Labour, that everyone votes for the same candidates but whoever wins the most votes amongst the candidates for a spot reserved for, say, Galilee, they get that spot. Not sure, though, if aby Israeli poster knows better they should correct me.

[danny]

How many votes do Likud members get to cast? And I assume the special candidates for the Galil etc. are decided on by the Likud members who reside in these areas?

Each voter casts 12 votes for candidates on the national list. This national list includes places reserved for certain groups (women, minority etc.) where the highest placed from a reserved group will be bumped up if necessary.

There is a separate election for "regional" candidates. This election does not take place with all Likud members, but by central members that were voted on by members earlier, and those special voters will have 5 votes for different candidates, so each member votes in half of the 10 regions.

[DavidB.]

Do you get to cast, say, 10 votes for one candidate and two for another one, or do you have to select 12 candidates in total?

[danny]

Do you get to cast, say, 10 votes for one candidate and two for another one, or do you have to select 12 candidates in total?

12 different candidates.

[Hnv1]

Interesting poll by Haaretz. final results aside I will note that most voters said they didn't want Bibi as PM again and that included YB, Kulano, and Gesher voters. Most also don't believe he is being haunted by the legal elite.

[DavidB.]

Polls for the Likud primary closing soon, results should come in afterwards. Over 62k people voted at 9, turnout was 54.3% at the time.

[danny]

Polls for the Likud primary closing soon, results should come in afterwards. Over 62k people voted at 9, turnout was 54.3% at the time.

Up to what seems like a final 58%, 69,719 voters.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Journalist Amit Segal reports some "commotion" in the Likud vote-counting: the members of the party's election committee were removed from the counting location, the party's inside comptroller tried to protest to no avail.
Update: the committee was returned due to the internal comptroller, apparently.

[DavidB.]

Is there a page when we can see the votes coming in?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Is there a page when we can see the votes coming in?

Pretty sure there isn't. The counting seems to be slow and ponderous anyway.