Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[America Needs R'hllor]

A much higher than expected turnout in the Labour primary. I'm standing outside the Jerusalem polling location and the line is huge, and there's a hour and a half left to vote. Turnout very likely to exceed 50%, which is huge considering the party's dismal state. Big enthusiasm for new candidate Yair "Yaya" Fink, a religious former Yachimovich staffer who made a lot of waves- I'll not be surprised if he's in the top 10.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Final turnout- 56.3%, very close to Likud's turnout! The party is still in a dismal state, but high energy today. Results within a hour.

[DavidB.]

Final turnout- 56.3%, higher than Likud's turnout!

How many voters does this amount to?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Final turnout- 56.3%, higher than Likud's turnout!

How many voters does this amount to?

CORRECTION: not higher than Likud, about 2% less. Sorry.
As for the voters, 33,771.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Results soon. First leaks indicate Shmuli, Shafir, Yachimovich and Peretz at the head, Fink (like I predicted, seems like polling place enthusiasm is a good indicator) and Cabel are in the top 10 surprisingly.

Edit: Looks like Cabel is actually 15th, Michaeli 5th, Bar Lev is 6th and Revital Swid is 7th. All with a grain of salt.

[America Needs R'hllor]

FINAL:

1. Shmuli
2. Shafir
3. Yachimovich
4. Peretz
5. Michaeli
6. Bar Lev
7. Swid
8. Fink
9. Biran

[DavidB.]

I guess Omer Bar Lev's political career is in danger. Sad, I met him, he's a knowledgeable guy and a real Zionist of the old type that sadly seems to be a dying breed.

Meanwhile negotiations between the National Union and Otzma collapsed. Smotrich had offered Otzma spots 5 and 8.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I guess Omer Bar Lev's political career is in danger. Sad, I met him, he's a knowledgeable guy and a real Zionist of the old type that sadly seems to be a dying breed.

Meanwhile negotiations between the National Union and Otzma collapsed. Smotrich had offered Otzma spots 5 and 8.

Bar Lev is a good guy, though from what I've seen of him he's not that different from the other Labour MKs in ideology. I'm happy to see Shafir and Michaeli in high places, they're my two favourite MKs.

[Famous Mortimer]

This seems like a victory for Gabbay since Shmuli is the least ideologically left-wing.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This seems like a victory for Gabbay since Shmuli is the least ideologically left-wing.

The first part is true- Shmuli allied woth Gabbay while his biggest critic, Eitan Cabel, was dragged down and is likely out.

But there's nothing in Shmuli that's not ideologically left wing lol. He's very much a socialist, for one, and isn't to the right of the others on any substantial issue I know about.

[Hnv1]

Labour primaries:

- as everyone pointed already, the next leadership battle (Shmuli v. Shaffir) is already set
- the Labour list was fairly expected
- the left wing element took a blow
- Labour is now completely a party of social issues, whether they win 5\7\10\12 seats, they cannot claim to be a party in waiting for leadership. historic Labour is officially dead.
- I still hope they don't cross the threshold

[DC Al Fine]

Labour primaries:

- as everyone pointed already, the next leadership battle (Shmuli v. Shaffir) is already set
- the Labour list was fairly expected
- the left wing element took a blow
- Labour is now completely a party of social issues, whether they win 5\7\10\12 seats, they cannot claim to be a party in waiting for leadership. historic Labour is officially dead.
- I still hope they don't cross the threshold

Who would you want your left wing vehicle to be? Meretz?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Labour primaries:

- as everyone pointed already, the next leadership battle (Shmuli v. Shaffir) is already set
- the Labour list was fairly expected
- the left wing element took a blow
- Labour is now completely a party of social issues, whether they win 5\7\10\12 seats, they cannot claim to be a party in waiting for leadership. historic Labour is officially dead.
- I still hope they don't cross the threshold

Who would you want your left wing vehicle to be? Meretz?

I, for one, am probably becoming the resident Labour hack here since I really do love our list and most of our politicians, especially as the oldguard politics of deals is slowly purged, but Hnv I believe wants a new leftist party to rise from the ashes since Labour ran its course.

[Hnv1]

Labour primaries:

- as everyone pointed already, the next leadership battle (Shmuli v. Shaffir) is already set
- the Labour list was fairly expected
- the left wing element took a blow
- Labour is now completely a party of social issues, whether they win 5\7\10\12 seats, they cannot claim to be a party in waiting for leadership. historic Labour is officially dead.
- I still hope they don't cross the threshold

Who would you want your left wing vehicle to be? Meretz?

Realignment: Labour split with the centrists moving to some new big centre party. The reds (Shelly and Peretz) unite with the Gilon faction in Meretz for some party with socialist nonsense. Meretz radicals move to the left and align with the Arab left to form a new real Arabic-Jewish party.
Maximizing votes and creating more inspiring political formations.

Labour atm is a party with no purpose, Meretz strangled by internal strife and Hadash so bibpolar it’s basically two parties

[America Needs R'hllor]

Labour primaries:

- as everyone pointed already, the next leadership battle (Shmuli v. Shaffir) is already set
- the Labour list was fairly expected
- the left wing element took a blow
- Labour is now completely a party of social issues, whether they win 5\7\10\12 seats, they cannot claim to be a party in waiting for leadership. historic Labour is officially dead.
- I still hope they don't cross the threshold

Who would you want your left wing vehicle to be? Meretz?

Realignment: Labour split with the centrists moving to some new big centre party. The reds (Shelly and Peretz) unite with the Gilon faction in Meretz for some party with socialist nonsense. Meretz radicals move to the left and align with the Arab left to form a new real Arabic-Jewish party.
Maximizing votes and creating more inspiring political formations.

Labour atm is a party with no purpose, Meretz strangled by internal strife and Hadash so bibpolar it’s basically two parties

That would be interesting.
I don't see, however, how Labour has any less purpose than Likud\YA\Hosen\Kulanu\Gesher\New Right It's the only solid left to center-left party in Israel.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, there's definitely an argument that the only parties with any strong purpose ('elect X as PM or Minister for Y' not counting) are the testimonial ones, and that that's why the electorate is so ridiculously volatile.

[Hnv1]

Labour primaries:

- as everyone pointed already, the next leadership battle (Shmuli v. Shaffir) is already set
- the Labour list was fairly expected
- the left wing element took a blow
- Labour is now completely a party of social issues, whether they win 5\7\10\12 seats, they cannot claim to be a party in waiting for leadership. historic Labour is officially dead.
- I still hope they don't cross the threshold

Who would you want your left wing vehicle to be? Meretz?

Realignment: Labour split with the centrists moving to some new big centre party. The reds (Shelly and Peretz) unite with the Gilon faction in Meretz for some party with socialist nonsense. Meretz radicals move to the left and align with the Arab left to form a new real Arabic-Jewish party.
Maximizing votes and creating more inspiring political formations.

Labour atm is a party with no purpose, Meretz strangled by internal strife and Hadash so bibpolar it’s basically two parties

That would be interesting.
I don't see, however, how Labour has any less purpose than Likud\YA\Hosen\Kulanu\Gesher\New Right It's the only solid left to center-left party in Israel.

Labour is no longer a leadership party like Likud. The left section can create a new Social Democratic party like they want, and the centre can join YA and maybe after Laid create a party for people who adore Ben Gurion and think they know better than anyone.
ATM the vessel which is Labour is just drifting away.

[Vosem]

A recount in the Likud primary has flipped Sa'ar/Erdan (previously fifth and fourth, now fourth and fifth) and Levin/Gallant (previously ninth and eighth, now eighth and ninth). Bibi has also agreed to give up his reserved spot at the 21st to the national list, which bumps (all of these are Class of 2015 freshman MKs) Yoav Kish from 24th to 21st, David Bitan from 25th to 24th, Miki Zohar from 29th to 25th, and gadfly Canadian-immigrant libertarian Sharren Haskel from 37th to 29th. Bibi was lobbied to do this by Bitan and Zohar (who were both already probably in but simply wanted higher slots just in case), but the likely effect of this is that it bumps Haskel from almost certainly not returning to the Knesset to probably coming back.

[danny]

A recount in the Likud primary has flipped Sa'ar/Erdan (previously fifth and fourth, now fourth and fifth) and Levin/Gallant (previously ninth and eighth, now eighth and ninth). Bibi has also agreed to give up his reserved spot at the 21st to the national list, which bumps (all of these are Class of 2015 freshman MKs) Yoav Kish from 24th to 21st, David Bitan from 25th to 24th, Miki Zohar from 29th to 25th, and gadfly Canadian-immigrant libertarian Sharren Haskel from 37th to 29th. Bibi was lobbied to do this by Bitan and Zohar (who were both already probably in but simply wanted higher slots just in case), but the likely effect of this is that it bumps Haskel from almost certainly not returning to the Knesset to probably coming back.

As far as I know Netanyahu not using one of his spots bumps the entire list up 1 spot, not just the non reserved ones.

[Hnv1]

A recount in the Likud primary has flipped Sa'ar/Erdan (previously fifth and fourth, now fourth and fifth) and Levin/Gallant (previously ninth and eighth, now eighth and ninth). Bibi has also agreed to give up his reserved spot at the 21st to the national list, which bumps (all of these are Class of 2015 freshman MKs) Yoav Kish from 24th to 21st, David Bitan from 25th to 24th, Miki Zohar from 29th to 25th, and gadfly Canadian-immigrant libertarian Sharren Haskel from 37th to 29th. Bibi was lobbied to do this by Bitan and Zohar (who were both already probably in but simply wanted higher slots just in case), but the likely effect of this is that it bumps Haskel from almost certainly not returning to the Knesset to probably coming back.

As far as I know Netanyahu not using one of his spots bumps the entire list up 1 spot, not just the non reserved ones.

It's actually unclear really, Likud has 3 different rules on this. I'll wait for the official list on the 20th.

anyhow, it just shows how Bibi can be squeezed, backbenchers forcing his hands and he wants the Likud all in the line for the indictment. Lame duck

[DavidB.]

anyhow, it just shows how Bibi can be squeezed, backbenchers forcing his hands and he wants the Likud all in the line for the indictment. Lame duck

Seems more likely to me that he just doesn't care because most of them are not particularly intelligent and will do whatever he wants anyway.

Kan poll:

Likud 30
Israel Resilience 20
Yesh Atid 11
New Right 10
Labor 10
UTJ 7
Joint List 6
Taal 6
Yisrael Beytenu 6
Shas 5
Meretz 4
Kulanu 4

BY + NU + Otzma get 7 seats if united, are all out if not.

This looks more realistic than the previous ones.

[DavidB.]

Do Israeli polls ever just break down the result by %, so we can see if a party is close to making threshold, or no?

No, but most do mention which ones are close.

[America Needs R'hllor]

anyhow, it just shows how Bibi can be squeezed, backbenchers forcing his hands and he wants the Likud all in the line for the indictment. Lame duck

Seems more likely to me that he just doesn't care because most of them are not particularly intelligent and will do whatever he wants anyway.

Kan poll:

Likud 30
Israel Resilience 20
Yesh Atid 11
New Right 10
Labor 10
UTJ 7
Joint List 6
Taal 6
Yisrael Beytenu 6
Shas 5
Meretz 4
Kulanu 4

BY + NU + Otzma get 7 seats if united, are all out if not.

This looks more realistic than the previous ones.

Huh weird, I remember seeing Labour at 11 seats and Gesher at 4 in that poll.

Also, Yisrael Hayom polls keep showing Zehut above the threshold. Trash pollster, onto something or they're just high?

[Hnv1]

45% turnout up to now in the Meretz primaries might signal an upset for the commies.

I rejoined and voted Raz, Laski, Oppenheimer, Rozin.

[Hnv1]

Turnout over 80% and still going. Huge succes. The old voting blocs of the party are dying