Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[America Needs R'hllor]

Wow.  URWP seems to be gaining at the expense of Likud, I guess the main winner out of the Netanyahu indictment seems to be for now, NRWP.

Wait for more polls. Their numbers have been pretty volatile in recent polls, ranging from 4-5 to 8-10.

[DavidB.]

Maagar Mochot seems to be the most erratic pollster. They publish one poll and the next day they publish another poll with numbers that cannot be in line with the previous one when taking into account the margin of error. Waiting for Midgam, Panels or Direct to confirm this.

[DC Al Fine]

One thing I find interesting about Israeli politics is that it seems like Anglo progressives' politics map onto the left-Arab bloc much more smoothly than Anglo conservatives' politics to the right-Religious bloc. I'm having hard time trying to decide who to support. I can't vote for a corrupt party or an indicted leader given all my complaints about Justin Trudeau without being hypocritical. UTJ is also out because some of their Haredi policies really don't mesh well with Christianity.

I guess I would be a Kulanu-New Right swing voter right now. Would that be ridiculous in Israel or would it kind of make sense?

[Hnv1]

One thing I find interesting about Israeli politics is that it seems like Anglo progressives' politics map onto the left-Arab bloc much more smoothly than Anglo conservatives' politics to the right-Religious bloc. I'm having hard time trying to decide who to support. I can't vote for a corrupt party or an indicted leader given all my complaints about Justin Trudeau without being hypocritical. UTJ is also out because some of their Haredi policies really don't mesh well with Christianity.

I guess I would be a Kulanu-New Right swing voter right now. Would that be ridiculous in Israel or would it kind of make sense?

Makes sense, a lot of ‘religious light’ type swing between them

[jaichind]

One thing I find interesting about Israeli politics is that it seems like Anglo progressives' politics map onto the left-Arab bloc much more smoothly than Anglo conservatives' politics to the right-Religious bloc. I'm having hard time trying to decide who to support. I can't vote for a corrupt party or an indicted leader given all my complaints about Justin Trudeau without being hypocritical. UTJ is also out because some of their Haredi policies really don't mesh well with Christianity.

I guess I would be a Kulanu-New Right swing voter right now. Would that be ridiculous in Israel or would it kind of make sense?

My political position tend to be Libertarian-Right-Nationalist.  So it is easy for me to back Zehut.  But it seems they will not cross the threshold. 

[DavidB.]

One thing I find interesting about Israeli politics is that it seems like Anglo progressives' politics map onto the left-Arab bloc much more smoothly than Anglo conservatives' politics to the right-Religious bloc. I'm having hard time trying to decide who to support. I can't vote for a corrupt party or an indicted leader given all my complaints about Justin Trudeau without being hypocritical. UTJ is also out because some of their Haredi policies really don't mesh well with Christianity.

I guess I would be a Kulanu-New Right swing voter right now. Would that be ridiculous in Israel or would it kind of make sense?

My political position tend to be Libertarian-Right-Nationalist.  So it is easy for me to back Zehut.  But it seems they will not cross the threshold.  

New Right would fit you too.

[America Needs R'hllor]

One thing I find interesting about Israeli politics is that it seems like Anglo progressives' politics map onto the left-Arab bloc much more smoothly than Anglo conservatives' politics to the right-Religious bloc. I'm having hard time trying to decide who to support. I can't vote for a corrupt party or an indicted leader given all my complaints about Justin Trudeau without being hypocritical. UTJ is also out because some of their Haredi policies really don't mesh well with Christianity.

I guess I would be a Kulanu-New Right swing voter right now. Would that be ridiculous in Israel or would it kind of make sense?

UTJ is a sectarian party soley focused on Haredi interests. Plus, their leader is being investigated for helping a pedophile get false medical opinions to escape extradition.

[jaichind]

Kan and Channel 13 poll

Kahol Lavan – 37
Likud – 29
Hayamin Hehadash – 7
Hadash-Ta'al – 7
United Torah Judaism – 7
Shas – 6
Labor – 6
Meretz – 6
Ra'am-Balad – 5
Union of Right-Wing Parties – 5
Kulanu – 5

61 seats for the center-left, as opposed to the right's 59.

[DavidB.]

The Americans are coming with a peace proposal right after the election, which is worth taking into account. The New Right are campaigning on it, saying a strong right to the right of Likud is needed in order to prevent a 2SS from taking place.

If an Israeli government assumes office that doesn't even want to take any negotiations or peace plan on a 2SS seriously, it would hurt the relationship with this American government as well as the next one (whether Republican or Democratic) as Trump may view it as a personal insult; it would also be bad for Israel's PR because it would erode the argument that Israel has no partner for peace, which may prompt unilateral steps from EU countries and the U.S.

A government that depends on the New Right, the Jewish Home and the National Union (let alone Otzma) cannot support a 2SS. From this point of view it would be in Israel's strategic interest if a government consisting of Blue and White and Likud would take office. Any Blue-and-White-led government without Likud would probably lack perceived legitimacy on the right (especially if such a government would depend on Tibi and Odeh), which could lead to a disaster and social chaos - like we've seen in the 90s, but worse. The left may not like it, but just like Social Democrats are generally needed in order to implement austere economic policies, it is probably Likud that is needed to implement a 2SS - but not in the driver's seat, as they won't be willing to make the final call.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Americans are coming with a peace proposal right after the election, which is worth taking into account. The New Right are campaigning on it, saying a strong right to the right of Likud is needed in order to prevent a 2SS from taking place.

If an Israeli government assumes office that doesn't even want to take any negotiations or peace plan on a 2SS seriously, it would hurt the relationship with this American government as well as the next one (whether Republican or Democratic) as Trump may view it as a personal insult; it would also be bad for Israel's PR because it would erode the argument that Israel has no partner for peace, which may prompt unilateral steps from EU countries and the U.S.

A government that depends on the New Right, the Jewish Home and the National Union (let alone Otzma) cannot support a 2SS. From this point of view it would be in Israel's strategic interest if a government consisting of Blue and White and Likud would take office. Any Blue-and-White-led government without Likud would probably lack perceived legitimacy on the right (especially if such a government would depend on Tibi and Odeh), which could lead to a disaster and social chaos - like we've seen in the 90s, but worse. The left may not like it, but just like Social Democrats are generally needed in order to implement austere economic policies, it is probably Likud that is needed to implement a 2SS - but not in the driver's seat, as they won't be willing to make the final call.

I agree with every word.  It it's also worth noting that not only is the left-left pretty small in Israel, but the Gantz-Lapid alliance is ostensibly a centrist outfit supported almost entirely by left and center-left voters. If leftists aren't happy with a broad secular-centrist coalition then they have no business  voting for Gantz. And yet they are. As a leftist, and a Blue and White supporter, I can't say I speak for the entire Israeli left, but I'm perfectly happy with a broad, secular national unity government led by Benny Gantz that works together with Likud as a junior partner to find broadly agreeable and durable solutions for regional peace. It won't be as revolutionary as I want, but it might actually be healthier. And that alone is something. But it will be interesting to see if the drip away from the right continues or whether this winds up pretty close to 50/50 where it is now.

[DavidB.]

Agreed. As a right-winger I'm just too worried that it all turns out to be a ploy and Meretz are suddenly in the government as Gantz' junior partners instead of Likud. I'm okay with a two-state solution but it has to be negotiated by people that I trust to be genuinely patriotic, who truly have Israelis' interests in mind and are not "soft". And I think this is a position a lot of Israelis have - which, rightly or wrongly, is part of the reason Gantz' strategy (the militaristic videos, the Likud bearhug) seems successful while Herzog's wasn't.

The above outlined argument does make me contemplate supporting Kulanu, with the idea that they would do the right thing and support a constructive grand coalition if necessary and not impede a 2SS on the one hand, but they would also not enter or support a government with Meretz (or even one depending on Tibi and Odeh) on the other hand.

[Hnv1]

Agreed. As a right-winger I'm just too worried that it all turns out to be a ploy and Meretz are suddenly in the government as Gantz' junior partners instead of Likud. I'm okay with a two-state solution but it has to be negotiated by people that I trust to be genuinely patriotic, who truly have Israelis' interests in mind and are not "soft". And I think this is a position a lot of Israelis have - which, rightly or wrongly, is part of the reason Gantz' strategy (the militaristic videos, the Likud bearhug) seems successful while Herzog's wasn't.

The above outlined argument does make me contemplate supporting Kulanu, with the idea that they would do the right thing and support a constructive grand coalition if necessary and not impede a 2SS on the one hand, but they would also not enter or support a government with Meretz (or even one depending on Tibi and Odeh) on the other hand.

Meretz will marginalized in any such government and will only get social ministries

[SInNYC]

Is there any conceivable future scenario where an Arab party can be part of a coalition?

[DavidB.]

Is there any conceivable future scenario where an Arab party can be part of a coalition?

Not really, but in theory the more moderate combination of Hadash-Ta'al could support a left-wing government from the outside - but such a government remains unlikely to be formed.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Is there any conceivable future scenario where an Arab party can be part of a coalition?

Not really, but in theory the more moderate combination of Hadash-Ta'al could support a left-wing government from the outside - but such a government remains unlikely to be formed.

This, unless of course in the far future a new, moderate and not anti-Zionist Arab party is created and gets traction.

[DavidB.]

Kahlon and Lieberman have confirmed that they are sticking with Bibi, the Jerusalem Post writes.

Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon broke his silence on Saturday night, saying he had “no problem” being in a Netanyahu-led government, even though "from a values and morals perspective, I feel uncomfortable with our prime minister being suspected of such things." (...) "I read the allegations," Kahlon told Channel 12’s Meet the Press. "It’s not pleasant to read these things against the prime minister on Shabbat morning, but... I wasn’t surprised."

Kahlon added that he would not join a government led by Blue and White Party chairman Benny Gantz, saying: “At the moment, the alternative government rejects us.” The reason, he said, is that Histadrut labor federation leader Avi Nissenkorn is fifth on their list and their economic views are drastically different from his own.”

And Lieberman said the following:

“The only one in Israel who can decide if a person is guilty or innocent is the court. The presumption of innocence is for everyone, including the prime minister.”

As for Gantz, Liberman said: “Is there a chance that I will join a government under his leadership? [It is] nonexistent. I want a prime minister with executive abilities. I saw how [Gantz] commanded Operation Protective Edge” – Gantz was IDF chief of staff at the time – “and I never hid my opinions.”

In the Channel 13 poll, 46% said they prefer Netanyahu to be PM, 40% preferred Gantz. Only 6% say they change their vote because of Netanyahu's impending indictment. In the Kan poll, 41% preferred Gantz and 40% Netanyahu.

[Famous Mortimer]

Kahlons Positions seems to be in Conflict with what Kulanu Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton said in Beersheba today:
“We do not rule out any Zionist party, as long as it is not a situation of them forming a technical bloc alongside anti-Zionist parties who do not believe in Israel’s Zionist identity.
If Gantz manages to form a government with a true majority, without any anti-Zionist parties, then yes, we do not rule out that possibility,”

I suspect it is Kulanu´s Strategy to cloud their Position in Smoke in order to still appear in the Centre and be able to scoop up the Voters who are Jumping the Likud Ship because of the Corruption allegations, but who are not at all Comfortable with a Gantz Government backed by the Left.
Similar Strategy to what they ran on in 2015 to be honest, i still think that Kahlon will, like in 2015, not walk the talk and go with Netanyahu after the election.

One should not forget that Cultural-Voting Bloc Connections are Important in Israel and Kahlon has always been from the Mizrahim-Likud Part of Israeli Society and i suspect that will influence him strongly when playing Kingmaker.

Basically saying they will join a Blue and White gov if Blue and White, Labor, and Meretz win enough seats to govern on their own, which of course is impossible. Irrelevant statement.

[Walmart_shopper]

Kahlons Positions seems to be in Conflict with what Kulanu Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton said in Beersheba today:
“We do not rule out any Zionist party, as long as it is not a situation of them forming a technical bloc alongside anti-Zionist parties who do not believe in Israel’s Zionist identity.
If Gantz manages to form a government with a true majority, without any anti-Zionist parties, then yes, we do not rule out that possibility,”

I suspect it is Kulanu´s Strategy to cloud their Position in Smoke in order to still appear in the Centre and be able to scoop up the Voters who are Jumping the Likud Ship because of the Corruption allegations, but who are not at all Comfortable with a Gantz Government backed by the Left.
Similar Strategy to what they ran on in 2015 to be honest, i still think that Kahlon will, like in 2015, not walk the talk and go with Netanyahu after the election.

One should not forget that Cultural-Voting Bloc Connections are Important in Israel and Kahlon has always been from the Mizrahim-Likud Part of Israeli Society and i suspect that will influence him strongly when playing Kingmaker.

Basically saying they will join a Blue and White gov if Blue and White, Labor, and Meretz win enough seats to govern on their own, which of course is impossible. Irrelevant statement.

No, no. They're just saying that don't want to be in a coalition with the Arab parties. If the center-left plus Kulanu can getto a majority, which is not at all impossible, then that will be the government.

The Niesenkorn ruse is baloney. Kahlon said that "at the moment" the center left is at odds with them, implying that after the election they'll probably more easily close the gaps that exist. Just a couple of weeks ago Niesenkorn told reporters he thought Kahlon was a good finance minister, even better than Lapid. Kahlon never ruled out sitting with Gantz and I think few doubt that he would he there in a heartbeat if finance was back on the table for him.

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 13 is out this morning with yet another poll.

Blue and white 38
Likud 30
Hadash Taal 9
Labor 8
Bayit Yehudi 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6
New Right 6
Kulanu 5
Shas 4

Center left 61
Right wing 59

[DavidB.]

Akiva Novick had an interesting take on this, claiming that the right bloc isn't actually down in the polls percentage-wise from the day the Knesset was dissolved - it is just that more of the right-wing vote ends up under the threshold. Most polls have YB not making it in, Zehut at 2-3% and Gesher usurping 2-3% too.

https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1100696049927241728
Not sure what he did with Kulanu here, though, who are very clearly down from their 2015 result.

Also interesting that the Maagar Mochot poll for Israel Hayom on March 1 found that 58% of Blue and White voters voted for ZU in 2015, 17% voted for Kulanu, 13% voted for the Joint List (!) and 10% voted for Likud. All in all still at least a 27% vote transfer from center-right and right-wing parties. Of course, a lot of these Kulanu voters indicated that they would vote for Yesh Atid before Gantz entered the race and were already "lost" to the right in the polls on the day the Knesset dissolved.

[Hnv1]

Akiva Novick had an interesting take on this, claiming that the right bloc isn't actually down in the polls percentage-wise from the day the Knesset was dissolved - it is just that more of the right-wing vote ends up under the threshold. Most polls have YB not making it in, Zehut at 2-3% and Gesher usurping 2-3% too.

https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1100696049927241728
Not sure what he did with Kulanu here, though, who are very clearly down from their 2015 result.

Also interesting that the Maagar Mochot poll for Israel Hayom on March 1 found that 58% of Blue and White voters voted for ZU in 2015, 17% voted for Kulanu, 13% voted for the Joint List (!) and 10% voted for Likud. All in all still at least a 27% vote transfer from center-right and right-wing parties. Of course, a lot of these Kulanu voters indicated that they would vote for Yesh Atid before Gantz entered the race and were already "lost" to the right in the polls on the day the Knesset dissolved.

I thought that was clear...Meretz and Labour are polling higher because of the threshold. That’s why I expect the threshold to be lowered next time around

[DavidB.]

It was always my working assumption, but interesting to see it backed up percentage-wise by Eylon Levy.

[Mike88]

I read something that Gantz was accused by a woman of sexual harassment. How is the media reporting, or are they dismissing it as a "non story"?

Also, this election seems to have a lot of "2015 election" vibes. I mean, Bibi is the underdog, like in 2015, faces a major center-left coalition, like in 2015, and seems to have everything against him, like in 2015. Is it possible that Bibi figure could polarize almost every rightwing votes in Likud and put Shas, UTJ and other rightwing forces under water?  

[Oryxslayer]

Also, this election seems to have a lot of "2015 election" vibes. I mean, Bibi is the underdog, like in 2015, faces a major center-left coalition, like in 2015, and seems to have everything against him, like in 2015. Is it possible that Bibi figure could polarize almost every rightwing votes in Likud and put Shas, UTJ and other rightwing forces under water?  

That's the big fear of the Israeli Right-Wing presently. They depend more parties close to the threshold, so if votes start centralizing, they end up wasting more. There are of course two problems with it right now: a bunch of the minor right parties have bases loyal to a fault, and that the Bibi scandal is right now pushing voters away from Likud. But the danger is always there.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I read something that Gantz was accused by a woman of sexual harassment. How is the media reporting, or are they dismissing it as a "non story"?

Also, this election seems to have a lot of "2015 election" vibes. I mean, Bibi is the underdog, like in 2015, faces a major center-left coalition, like in 2015, and seems to have everything against him, like in 2015. Is it possible that Bibi figure could polarize almost every rightwing votes in Likud and put Shas, UTJ and other rightwing forces under water?

The media isn't reporting it much and the consensus seems to be that the allegations are false.

And let me note- no one thought Bibi was the underdog in 2015. The ZU was only norrowly leading him in the polls and there wasn't really ever a danger he'd not be able to build a right wing government. The big story was just that the left had at least some measure of hope.