Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Mike88]

I read something that Gantz was accused by a woman of sexual harassment. How is the media reporting, or are they dismissing it as a "non story"?

Also, this election seems to have a lot of "2015 election" vibes. I mean, Bibi is the underdog, like in 2015, faces a major center-left coalition, like in 2015, and seems to have everything against him, like in 2015. Is it possible that Bibi figure could polarize almost every rightwing votes in Likud and put Shas, UTJ and other rightwing forces under water?

The media isn't reporting it much and the consensus seems to be that the allegations are false.

And let me note- no one thought Bibi was the underdog in 2015. The ZU was only norrowly leading him in the polls and there wasn't really ever a danger he'd not be able to build a right wing government. The big story was just that the left had at least some measure of hope.

Yeah, i meant that he was defeatable in 2015 and that he used that "status" to rally support even on election day, like that famous video when he said that Arabs were voting in droves.

Like Oryxslayer said, the rightwing could be fearing a centralization of votes in Likud, as they seem to be losing some moderate voters who had enough of Netanyahu. He could persue the same tactic, of 2015, of fear mongering on election eve to rally up rightwing voters around Likud.

[Walmart_shopper]

I read something that Gantz was accused by a woman of sexual harassment. How is the media reporting, or are they dismissing it as a "non story"?

Also, this election seems to have a lot of "2015 election" vibes. I mean, Bibi is the underdog, like in 2015, faces a major center-left coalition, like in 2015, and seems to have everything against him, like in 2015. Is it possible that Bibi figure could polarize almost every rightwing votes in Likud and put Shas, UTJ and other rightwing forces under water?  

Unless you consider Bibi TV a credible media outlet, it is now a non story. Bibi's indictment decision saturated everything.

It feels like 2015 every year because the left in Israel has Stockholm Syndrome. Netanyahu is a very crafty electoral politician, and we've seen the rabbit come out of the hat too many times to get complacent.

But this year really is different for a lot of different reasons. Benny Gantz is with legitimately excellent candidate for prime minister. Buji Herzog never came close to beating Netanyahu in the "who would you prefer to be the next prime minister" question that is always fairly determinative.  Gantz beat him in the Kan poll from this weekend. Second, the rightist bloc was always leading in 2015, but the question was whether Buji could sufficiently outperform Likud to get a crack at forming the government. Here the recent polls show that there is no credible coalition for Netanyahu that gets a majority. If Bibi poaches seats from his right wing partners he only digs the whole deeper. If he doesn't then he ensures that Gantz will get first shot at forming a government. For years the right has always wagged its finger about "the blocking blocs!  the blocking blocs!" This year the left gets to emphasize the blocs.

Also, look, the right is running a prime minister who was just indicted for fraud and bribery, the Shas leader will likely be indicted soon for using his position to commit fraud (again), the UTJ leader is under investigation for using his position to cover up Haredi sex abuse, Bennet is under investigation for a comparatively lighter campaign finance mistake, the Bayit Yehudi leader had to run together with Kahanists, and the only guy with clean hands is sending out smoke signals every which way that he's hoping he can leave the right wing coalition for something so little healthier.

That's a really, really bad look. The polls are so tight anything can happen, but this sure doesn't feel like 2015.

[Hnv1]

With Bennet, Kachlon, and Levy Abkasis all against a Bibi indictment government his days are numbered either way it seems

[Famous Mortimer]

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Blue and White list?

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Labor list?

[DavidB.]

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Blue and White list?

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Labor list?

Druze news anchorwoman Gadeer Mreeh at #25 for Blue and White; Gavri Barjil (judging by the name...) at #14 for Labour.

[danny]

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Blue and White list?

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Labor list?

Druze news anchorwoman Gadeer Mreeh at #25 for Blue and White; Gavri Barjil (judging by the name...) at #14 for Labour.

Gavri Bargil is very much a Jewish name. The first Arab on the Labour list is Saed Salah at 16 (also Druze).

[America Needs R'hllor]

Key pro-Israeli Democratic Senators Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) speak out harshly on Netanyahu's alliance with the Kahanist Otzma Yehudit party. Could be potentially big because they are the most pro-Israel members of the Democratic caucus. If an entire party grows hostile to Israel, it's the end of our special alliance because Republicans won't always hold power.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/02/israel-elections-pit-republicans-against-aipac.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&fbclid=IwAR2RzRgWUxY5BVAxkdjO5bVUpqdV5mUWKydCBLH2tF1wd0_ot0lhZHP-H2M

“The reality is that the party that Prime Minister Netanyahu has aligned himself with is the antithesis of American values,” said Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. “Since America plays such a significant role in supporting the state of Israel, you have to wonder at the end of the day how can we be supportive of such an alignment.”

“This is an outrageous coalition, and I think what AIPAC said expressed the views of most people that I know,” Cardin said. “We’re not weighing in on foreign elections. We are weighing in on a strategy that goes beyond elections.”

[Hnv1]

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Blue and White list?

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Labor list?

Druze news anchorwoman Gadeer Mreeh at #25 for Blue and White; Gavri Barjil (judging by the name...) at #14 for Labour.

It’s bargil, and he’s a Kibbutznik

[Horus]

Key pro-Israeli Democratic Senators Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) speak out harshly on Netanyahu's alliance with the Kahanist Otzma Yehudit party. Could be potentially big because they are the most pro-Israel members of the Democratic caucus. If an entire party grows hostile to Israel, it's the end of our special alliance because Republicans won't always hold power.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/02/israel-elections-pit-republicans-against-aipac.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&fbclid=IwAR2RzRgWUxY5BVAxkdjO5bVUpqdV5mUWKydCBLH2tF1wd0_ot0lhZHP-H2M

“The reality is that the party that Prime Minister Netanyahu has aligned himself with is the antithesis of American values,” said Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. “Since America plays such a significant role in supporting the state of Israel, you have to wonder at the end of the day how can we be supportive of such an alignment.”

“This is an outrageous coalition, and I think what AIPAC said expressed the views of most people that I know,” Cardin said. “We’re not weighing in on foreign elections. We are weighing in on a strategy that goes beyond elections.”

So basically Cardin and Menendez are only going to be as pro-Israel as AIPAC and not more pro-Israel than AIPAC? Oh no!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Key pro-Israeli Democratic Senators Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) speak out harshly on Netanyahu's alliance with the Kahanist Otzma Yehudit party. Could be potentially big because they are the most pro-Israel members of the Democratic caucus. If an entire party grows hostile to Israel, it's the end of our special alliance because Republicans won't always hold power.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/02/israel-elections-pit-republicans-against-aipac.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&fbclid=IwAR2RzRgWUxY5BVAxkdjO5bVUpqdV5mUWKydCBLH2tF1wd0_ot0lhZHP-H2M

“The reality is that the party that Prime Minister Netanyahu has aligned himself with is the antithesis of American values,” said Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. “Since America plays such a significant role in supporting the state of Israel, you have to wonder at the end of the day how can we be supportive of such an alignment.”

“This is an outrageous coalition, and I think what AIPAC said expressed the views of most people that I know,” Cardin said. “We’re not weighing in on foreign elections. We are weighing in on a strategy that goes beyond elections.”

So basically Cardin and Menendez are only going to be as pro-Israel as AIPAC and not more pro-Israel than AIPAC? Oh no!

Yes? lol
In any case their condemnation was way sharper than AIPAC's but ok

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be appreciated if this thread does not head off in a certain direction.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It would be appreciated if this thread does not head off in a certain direction.

Yes, this has been a very professional, informative source so far. Don't waste this.

[DC Al Fine]

Is there any good polling of party support by income, education, or socioeconomic status? If not, could someone provude some broad strokes? Or are the differences comparatively trivial due to the dominance of non-tax and spend issues?

[Famous Mortimer]

It would be appreciated if this thread does not head off in a certain direction.

"Please don't discuss politics on this politics forum"

[parochial boy]

It would be appreciated if this thread does not head off in a certain direction.

"Please don't discuss politics on this politics forum"

There are a million other active threads on this forum you can go to bicker about that issue. This thread is actually a pretty unique resource in terms of the analysis we are getting, and it would be nice to have it not descend into the same old tedious flamewars.

[DL]

Isn’t it also true that right and left do not divide on issues of class and income inequality in Israel. It’s more of an American style cleavage where left is all about being socially liberal and right is about being socially conservative so it’s line the way in the US Beverly Hills is strongly Democratic while West Virginia is Republican

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The issue is more that voting habits - 'party preference' would imply a relatively rigid party system, which Israel has not had for a while - are dominated by ethnic and confessional factors. These, in turn, correlate pretty strongly with income, occupation, education levels etc. There is a classic French explanation for the peculiarities of British history that runs as follows: 'Gentleman, England is an island; now you know as much about it as I do.' Something similar applies to Israeli politics: there is a common tendency to forget the obvious, that it is a country in the Middle East.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there any good polling of party support by income, education, or socioeconomic status? If not, could someone provude some broad strokes? Or are the differences comparatively trivial due to the dominance of non-tax and spend issues?

As a general rule Likud is the bastion of the poorer, especially Mizrahi working class who live in the area in Israel called the Periphery, which is pretty much anything outside of the wealthy and liberal "Center."  Labor is the party of the Ashkenazi upper class. However Yesh Atid with its emphasis on liberal economics and secularism has actually taken a big bite out of that apple. Meretz is the young people's party, especially in Tel Aviv and in liberal parts of Jerusalem (what few there are).

Older voters tend to be more faithful to the Labor Party of their youth. A lot of people say that young people are more likely to be on the right in Israel , but that's not actually true. Young voters are incredibly polarized, with many being strongly secular liberals who prefer a democratic euro-state, and the others being a very religious group that prefers a Jewish ethno-religious state. The truth, though, is that young voters in Israel are probably some of the most disengaged and disenchanted in the world. They are as a whole very secular and liberal on social and religious issues, but are probably more to the right on security issues. There is also a growing Haredi demographic that is, well, Haredi. There is also a growing demographic of ex-Haredi young people that are fairly anti-Haredi.

Politics is mostly about cultural and ideological identity, though. Labor is fairly centrist for a Labor party, economically,amd Likud is fairly centrist for a new economically liberal party. So there are not huge fissures on those issues. The big questions are really over the Palestinian question and,  perhaps even more than what, the degree to which Israel's democratic character should outweigh, if at all, its Jewish character. There are major issues with religion, race, and culture buries in there, which is why politics are so volatile here.

[Walmart_shopper]

Isn’t it also true that right and left do not divide on issues of class and income inequality in Israel. It’s more of an American style cleavage where left is all about being socially liberal and right is about being socially conservative so it’s line the way in the US Beverly Hills is strongly Democratic while West Virginia is Republican

It's also why opposition isn't as intense to the last right wing government as you'd expect given how far to the right of the average Israeli it has been. Tel Aviv is the bastion of the Israeli left, and it's also doing better economically than ever before. Likud has made a lot of people embarrassed for their country, but not for their pocketbooks. That won't change a lot of votes, but it will mute some opposition. As long as Tel Aviv is given some autonomy on religious issues (which they are, by court order) and can operate a robust, open, and liberal culture, they tend not to complain too much. They can afford a weekend trip to Berlin when they're getting too claustrophobic , thanks to the economy, so it's livable.

At some point, though, that drift to the right will start having dramatic economic and political implications. That's basically the cri de coeur of the center and left in Israel, and it seems like people are actually starting to believe it, which it probably took a right wing government to do. This election will be a big test of whether the massive Tel Aviv area will continue giving a big shrug to the right, or whether they'll take political control in addition to their economic control.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Key pro-Israeli Democratic Senators Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) speak out harshly on Netanyahu's alliance with the Kahanist Otzma Yehudit party. Could be potentially big because they are the most pro-Israel members of the Democratic caucus. If an entire party grows hostile to Israel, it's the end of our special alliance because Republicans won't always hold power.

It's been heading that way for a while, I'm afraid.

[Hnv1]

Is there any good polling of party support by income, education, or socioeconomic status? If not, could someone provude some broad strokes? Or are the differences comparatively trivial due to the dominance of non-tax and spend issues?

As a general rule Likud is the bastion of the poorer, especially Mizrahi working class who live in the area in Israel called the Periphery, which is pretty much anything outside of the wealthy and liberal "Center."  Labor is the party of the Ashkenazi upper class. However Yesh Atid with its emphasis on liberal economics and secularism has actually taken a big bite out of that apple. Meretz is the young people's party, especially in Tel Aviv and in liberal parts of Jerusalem (what few there are).

Older voters tend to be more faithful to the Labor Party of their youth. A lot of people say that young people are more likely to be on the right in Israel , but that's not actually true. Young voters are incredibly polarized, with many being strongly secular liberals who prefer a democratic euro-state, and the others being a very religious group that prefers a Jewish ethno-religious state. The truth, though, is that young voters in Israel are probably some of the most disengaged and disenchanted in the world. They are as a whole very secular and liberal on social and religious issues, but are probably more to the right on security issues. There is also a growing Haredi demographic that is, well, Haredi. There is also a growing demographic of ex-Haredi young people that are fairly anti-Haredi.

Politics is mostly about cultural and ideological identity, though. Labor is fairly centrist for a Labor party, economically,amd Likud is fairly centrist for a new economically liberal party. So there are not huge fissures on those issues. The big questions are really over the Palestinian question and,  perhaps even more than what, the degree to which Israel's democratic character should outweigh, if at all, its Jewish character. There are major issues with religion, race, and culture buries in there, which is why politics are so volatile here.

Inaccurate, there are actually some good researches but they're are all in hebrew.

as divided by deciles:
1-4 mainly Arab parties and Haredi as they are the poorest voters
5-7 Likud, YB, Kachlon and others are the majority (JH also has a good showing here but it was almost equal to Labour's).
8-10 Meretz Labour YA and such are more dominant here, though Likud has a good showing here as well.

In general Likud gets the broadest support in most towns by deciles as it is the closest to a broad tent party in Israel.

Though there is a correlation with economic standing, the causal relation is one of education\religiousness\ethnicity, the more educated a voter is the more likely he is to vote left (though JH has a strong showing as well as their elite mirrors the left elite). The more secular a voter is the more left wing he is (with YB as the outlier). And, voters from Ashkenaz background are more left wing (again with UTJ and JH having a good showing).

[DavidB.]

Panels poll for Walla:

Blue & White 36
Likud 31
Hadash-Ta'al 9
Labour 8
UTJ 7
URWP 7
New Right 6
Meretz 6
Kulanu 6
Shas 4

YB (2.8%), Gesher (2.7%), Zehut (2.6%), Balad-Ra'am (1.6%) and others below threshold

Right-religious 61
Center-left-coalitionable Arab 59

[jaichind]

Panels poll for Walla:

Blue & White 36
Likud 31
Hadash-Ta'al 9
Labour 8
UTJ 7
URWP 7
New Right 6
Meretz 6
Kulanu 6
Shas 4

YB (2.8%), Gesher (2.7%), Zehut (2.6%), Balad-Ra'am (1.6%) and others below threshold

Right-religious 61
Center-left-coalitionable Arab 59

Is it me or are the Arab parties losing support relative to 2015.  Balad-Ra'am  at 1.6% and Hadash-Ta'a at 9 seats seems to indicate that they lost support since 2015 when compared to Joint List.  Where did those votes go or it this more about lower Arab turnout ?

[DavidB.]

A previous poll showed that 13% of B&W's support comes from Joint List 2015 voters. It seems as if some Arabs think holding their nose and voting for a Zionist party is worth it if it means they can get rid of Bibi (and the parties further right) by doing so.

[Walmart_shopper]

Panels poll for Walla:

Blue & White 36
Likud 31
Hadash-Ta'al 9
Labour 8
UTJ 7
URWP 7
New Right 6
Meretz 6
Kulanu 6
Shas 4

YB (2.8%), Gesher (2.7%), Zehut (2.6%), Balad-Ra'am (1.6%) and others below threshold

Right-religious 61
Center-left-coalitionable Arab 59

Is it me or are the Arab parties losing support relative to 2015.  Balad-Ra'am  at 1.6% and Hadash-Ta'a at 9 seats seems to indicate that they lost support since 2015 when compared to Joint List.  Where did those votes go or it this more about lower Arab turnout ?

In this particular poll, yes. The Arab parties, indeed the whole Arab sector, are notoriously hard to poll, though. They may be undecided or even voting for Blue and White, Meretz, or Labor. Their turnout may determine the election, though, and absolutely nobody has a clue what that will be.