Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[danny]

Regarding Shas, and this is probably a dumb and slightly roundabout question - they always get described as a Haredi party. But to what extent is that actually the case? I mean, I was under the impression that their electorate was as much traditionalist and based around Mizrahi identity as much as anything else? And aren't the Haredi movements something that is much more Ashkenazi?

The actual leadership has always been exclusively haredi. However, back when Shas were getting 17 seats, most of their electorate was non haredi. These days though with their 5-6 seats they have lost most their non haredi voters so now most of their voters are haredi. The Ashkenazi haredi have their own party (UTJ), with has being the party of Mizrahi Haredi.

[Walmart_shopper]

Regarding Shas, and this is probably a dumb and slightly roundabout question - they always get described as a Haredi party. But to what extent is that actually the case? I mean, I was under the impression that their electorate was as much traditionalist and based around Mizrahi identity as much as anything else? And aren't the Haredi movements something that is much more Ashkenazi?

They are Haredim. There has been a definite Haredization of Orthodox Judaism that has created a situation in which even former Shadow leader Eli Yishai can plausibly head a settler party like Yahad. Shas usually tries to pick off Mizrahi and even a few Arab votes in the Peripheria, but it's definitely a Haredi party now. Thus why there isn't a lot of room to grow without eating into UTJ, which given the fact that sectarian and ethnic differences matter much more to Haredim than to ordinary Israelis is unlikely to happen.

[Hnv1]

Regarding Shas, and this is probably a dumb and slightly roundabout question - they always get described as a Haredi party. But to what extent is that actually the case? I mean, I was under the impression that their electorate was as much traditionalist and based around Mizrahi identity as much as anything else? And aren't the Haredi movements something that is much more Ashkenazi?

The actual leadership has always been exclusively haredi. However, back when Shas were getting 17 seats, most of their electorate was non haredi. These days though with their 5-6 seats they have lost most their non haredi voters so now most of their voters are haredi. The Ashkenazi haredi have their own party (UTJ), with has being the party of Mizrahi Haredi.

There are a few non Haredi voters left, but they’re the black Kippa type from the periphery

[DC Al Fine]

Regarding Shas, and this is probably a dumb and slightly roundabout question - they always get described as a Haredi party. But to what extent is that actually the case? I mean, I was under the impression that their electorate was as much traditionalist and based around Mizrahi identity as much as anything else? And aren't the Haredi movements something that is much more Ashkenazi?

The actual leadership has always been exclusively haredi. However, back when Shas were getting 17 seats, most of their electorate was non haredi. These days though with their 5-6 seats they have lost most their non haredi voters so now most of their voters are haredi. The Ashkenazi haredi have their own party (UTJ), with has being the party of Mizrahi Haredi.

There are a few non Haredi voters left, but they’re the black Kippa type from the periphery

What are 'black Kippa types'?

[lilTommy]

New Poll:
Maagar Mochot/Israel Hayom & i24 News
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/639217


Blue&White - 33
Likud - 26
Hadash–Ta'al - 9
Labour - 8
Meretz - 8 (Well that seems high?)
UTJ - 8
New Right - 8
URWP - 8
Shas - 4
Zehut - 4
Kulanu - 4

[Former President tack50]

Lol, so according to that poll in the (unlikely) event of a grand coalition, Hadash-Taal would be the official opposition?

I wonder how Israelis would react to the Arab party being the opposition.

[America Needs R'hllor]

New Poll:
Maagar Mochot/Israel Hayom & i24 News
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/639217


Blue&White - 33
Likud - 26
Hadash–Ta'al - 9
Labour - 8
Meretz - 8 (Well that seems high?)
UTJ - 8
New Right - 8
URWP - 8
Shas - 4
Zehut - 4
Kulanu - 4

Zehut is doing better and better in the polls. Looks like they'll pass, and with over 4 seats at that. UGH

[DL]

Lol, so according to that poll in the (unlikely) event of a grand coalition, Hadash-Taal would be the official opposition?

I wonder how Israelis would react to the Arab party being the opposition.

Is there even such a thing as "official opposition" in Israel? That tends to be more of a feature of FPTP based Westminster-style political systems

[Hnv1]

Lol, so according to that poll in the (unlikely) event of a grand coalition, Hadash-Taal would be the official opposition?

I wonder how Israelis would react to the Arab party being the opposition.

No they won’t. The opposition leader is picked by the majority of opposition MKs, in that case I assume all the Jews will team up behind someone

[Hnv1]

Regarding Shas, and this is probably a dumb and slightly roundabout question - they always get described as a Haredi party. But to what extent is that actually the case? I mean, I was under the impression that their electorate was as much traditionalist and based around Mizrahi identity as much as anything else? And aren't the Haredi movements something that is much more Ashkenazi?

The actual leadership has always been exclusively haredi. However, back when Shas were getting 17 seats, most of their electorate was non haredi. These days though with their 5-6 seats they have lost most their non haredi voters so now most of their voters are haredi. The Ashkenazi haredi have their own party (UTJ), with has being the party of Mizrahi Haredi.

There are a few non Haredi voters left, but they’re the black Kippa type from the periphery

What are 'black Kippa types'?

Lower middle class from Sephardi towns and cities in the periphery. You see them at a lot of lower tier jobs (logistics in a supermarket and such). Basically religious and walk with a Kipa but not quite Haredi just yet

[Walmart_shopper]

New Poll:
Maagar Mochot/Israel Hayom & i24 News
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/639217


Blue&White - 33
Likud - 26
Hadash–Ta'al - 9
Labour - 8
Meretz - 8 (Well that seems high?)
UTJ - 8
New Right - 8
URWP - 8
Shas - 4
Zehut - 4
Kulanu - 4

Zehut is doing better and better in the polls. Looks like they'll pass, and with over 4 seats at that. UGH

I doubt it. They've passed the threshold in exactly two polls. It isn't impossible that they'll get their four seats, but without a bunch more polling showing them passing I don't buy it.  These Bibiton polls are also especially ridiculous,  so consider that.

[jaichind]

Looks like Zehut is past the threshold for a couple of polls now.  Assuming they make it in will they back a Right-Religious government  ?  I though the leader of Zehut is a rival of Netanyahu so will Zehut demand that Netanyahu goes as part of its condition to join up a Likud led Center-Religious government ?

[Hnv1]

Looks like Zehut is past the threshold for a couple of polls now.  Assuming they make it in will they back a Right-Religious government  ?  I though the leader of Zehut is a rival of Netanyahu so will Zehut demand that Netanyahu goes as part of its condition to join up a Likud led Center-Religious government ?

He states that he will back whoever agrees the promote the most of Zehut’s platform. So it’s 60-40 for Bibi. But I assume both would rather have a grand coalition than sit with him

[Famous Mortimer]

Looks like Zehut is past the threshold for a couple of polls now.  Assuming they make it in will they back a Right-Religious government  ?  I though the leader of Zehut is a rival of Netanyahu so will Zehut demand that Netanyahu goes as part of its condition to join up a Likud led Center-Religious government ?

Remember that Netanyahu and Barak were moral enemies, ran against each other in 1999, then Barak pushed Labor into a grand coalition with Likud.

Remember that Yacimovich was Peretz' protege and had all the same views as him, then they ran against each other Peretz started attacking her for continuing to espouse the same views he had previously.

Rivalries in Israeli politics have a way of disappearing when their disappearing gives both people power. 

[DavidB.]

Dialog poll for Haaretz:

Blue and White 31
Likud 28
Labour 10
Hadash-Ta'al 8
URWP 8
UTJ 7
New Right 7
Shas 5
Kulanu 4
Ra'am-Balad 4
Meretz 4
Zehut 4

YB (2%) and Gesher (1.8%) below threshold.

63 for the right (including Zehut, who would be a pain...), 57 for the left.

[Vosem]

The following parties have submitted voter transfer agreements:

Likud--United Right
Labor--Meretz
United Torah Judaism--Shas
New Right--Yisrael Beiteinu

I'm not sure when the deadline to submit these is; apparently Hadash-Ta'al--Ra'am-Balad will be submitted after the Supreme Court (very likely) unbans Ra'am-Balad. Of the parties with a chance to enter the Knesset, either Blue & White or Kulanu may sign an agreement with Gesher (or perhaps neither), but Zehut will be left high and dry.

These agreements mostly parallel the ones from 2015, when four agreements were concluded: Likud--Jewish Home, Zionist Union--Meretz, UTJ--Shas, and Yisrael Beiteinu--Kulanu. Bennett's addition of an extra right-wing party to the mix seems to have sort of screwed over Kahlon.

[DavidB.]

Panel Project Hamidgam:

B&W 31
Likud 28
Labour 7
Hadash-Ta'al 7
URWP 7
UTJ 6
Meretz 6
New Right 6
Balad-Ra'am 5
Shas 5
Kulanu 4
YB 4
Zehut 4

Gesher at 2.3%.

Right-religious 64, center-left-Arab 56

47% prefer Bibi as PM, 37% Gantz. Seems as if his polling numbers have taken a hit. But maybe it's just because many parties reach the threshold in this poll, like in the previous one. I don't know.

Kulanu says he will not support any government if he doesn't become Finance Minister. Likud have backtracked on their Education Ministry promise to Smotrich after some controversy about his past comments. Blue and White are reiterating they won't enter any government with anti-Zionist parties, Jerusalem will remain undivided and the Jordan Valley will remain part of Israel. Feiglinmentum seems real, and he will demand full weed legalization for his support - which Bibi now seems to take seriously, because he's desperate (and it's not an unpopular position in Israel in the first place).

[Oryxslayer]

According to wiki, we earlier missed a poll earlier from midgam. But its no biggie - right 61 to 59, Likud behind B&W by less seats then during the scandal. Zehuts not in though.

[VPH]

Why didn't Gesher and Kulanu merge? It's my hunch that Levy would fit in well with Kulanu and their moderate-right-on-security, economically populist positioning.

[Donerail]

Why didn't Gesher and Kulanu merge? It's my hunch that Levy would fit in well with Kulanu and their moderate-right-on-security, economically populist positioning.

The Knesset's basic law says

A Knesset member seceding from his faction and failing to tender his resignation as a Knesset member in close proximity to his secession, shall not be included, in the election for the next Knesset, in the list of candidates submitted by a party that was represented by a faction of the outgoing Knesset

Levy left Yisrael Beiteinu and sat as an independent in the Knesset rather than resigning, which means she cannot be included on Kulanu's list. Theoretically, she could choose not to run, in which case the rest of her list could merge with Kulanu, but that sort of defeats the whole point of the exercise.

[Famous Mortimer]

I see number 2 on the Zehut list is Haim Amsalem. I remember he was an MK for Shas who broke away and formed a punnily named party called Whole Nation that sometimes polled like it might win Knesset seats. I don't remember what the ideology of the party was though. What's his deal again?

[Walmart_shopper]

The Supreme Court is holding a hearing right now on whether to, as the state is suggesting, Michael Ben Ari should be disqualified from running for Knesset. It's hard tobread the tea leaves on this stuff, but it actually sounds as though the Court may rule against Ben Ari.

[Hnv1]

The Supreme Court is holding a hearing right now on whether to, as the state is suggesting, Michael Ben Ari should be disqualified from running for Knesset. It's hard tobread the tea leaves on this stuff, but it actually sounds as though the Court may rule against Ben Ari.

they either rule against Ben Ari and Kassif or rule that they're all eligible.

[danny]

I see number 2 on the Zehut list is Haim Amsalem. I remember he was an MK for Shas who broke away and formed a punnily named party called Whole Nation that sometimes polled like it might win Knesset seats. I don't remember what the ideology of the party was though. What's his deal again?

Amsalem was renegade in Shas who clearly had far more moderate positions on religious matters than his party, which eventually led to his departure. his main diversion was when he said that Haredi youth should join the army and opposed the idea of everyone studying the Torah in the modern haredi fashion, he also accused Shas of representing Ashkenazi philosophy. since then he has called for civil marriage.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Supreme Court is holding a hearing right now on whether to, as the state is suggesting, Michael Ben Ari should be disqualified from running for Knesset. It's hard tobread the tea leaves on this stuff, but it actually sounds as though the Court may rule against Ben Ari.

they either rule against Ben Ari and Kassif or rule that they're all eligible.

I actually think there's a real possibility, and a strong legal argument, that Zahalka and Kassif are allowed but Ben Ari is not. But that would wind the right wing up so much that it may end up costing the center left the election, so I'm not sure what I'm hoping cones of this.