Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Kingpoleon]

All the English sources I can find are either agnostic about or indicate the opposite of what you are asserting in the text I've bolded.

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The Haredim appaear to have an excellent retention rate. The trend instead seems to be towards polarization, with  non-Haredi religious Jews trending secular with a minority going Haredi.

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Even at a lesser retention rate, the Haredi seem to be gaining on the non-Haredi Jewish population.

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Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

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Unfortunately, I couldn't find any sources on the change in Haredi birth rates or how many babies younger Jewish women are having by sect, but it seems like Haredi birth rates have quite a ways to fall before its comparable to secular Jews.

Do you have any other sources, perhaps something in Hebrew that I could run through Google Translate? I suspect you might be taking an overly opimistic view of Israeli secularism, perhaps due to the pillarization of Israeli society.

Your numbers seem to forget the Negev Bedouin. By 2045, there will likely be as many as 840,000 Negev Bedouin, as their population doubles every 14-15 years.

[DC Al Fine]

All the English sources I can find are either agnostic about or indicate the opposite of what you are asserting in the text I've bolded.

Image

The Haredim appaear to have an excellent retention rate. The trend instead seems to be towards polarization, with  non-Haredi religious Jews trending secular with a minority going Haredi.

Image

Even at a lesser retention rate, the Haredi seem to be gaining on the non-Haredi Jewish population.

Image

Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

Image

Unfortunately, I couldn't find any sources on the change in Haredi birth rates or how many babies younger Jewish women are having by sect, but it seems like Haredi birth rates have quite a ways to fall before its comparable to secular Jews.

Do you have any other sources, perhaps something in Hebrew that I could run through Google Translate? I suspect you might be taking an overly opimistic view of Israeli secularism, perhaps due to the pillarization of Israeli society.

Your numbers seem to forget the Negev Bedouin. By 2045, there will likely be as many as 840,000 Negev Bedouin, as their population doubles every 14-15 years.

Probably, I was mainly concerned with Jews.

[Simfan34]

Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

Huh? 50% of secular Jews in Israel are having 3-6 children?

[DC Al Fine]

Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

Huh? 50% of secular Jews in Israel are having 3-6 children?

Someone pointed out a while back, that Israeli secular Jews have the highest birth rate of any secular group. Israel has a birth rate of about 3.1 kids/woman, but there aren't enough Muslims/religious Jews for the birth rate to be that high, unless secular Jews have kids at a higher rate than than Western 'nones' do.

I agree that the number sounds too high, but it isn't that much of a stretch to think that a much larger portion of secular Jews are having three kids than their secular counterparts in Canada or the UK.

[erſatz-york]

Seems like Liberman is saying that he is willing to force a new election if his draft bill doesn't get passed?

[Walmart_shopper]

Seems like Liberman is saying that he is willing to force a new election if his draft bill doesn't get passed?

Liberman's party slogan is "milah zo milah," or what in English we would say, "our word is our promise." That's ironic because Liberman is quite famous for sacrificing literally everything his party stands for just to remain in power. His resignation from government last year wasn't viewed as a stand on principle but a recognition that he would be unable to credibly remain defense minister. He always rants and raves about the Haredim but hardly ever actually does something to meaningfully resist their deeply unpopular role in government. It's ironic because it's the one issue in which Israelis love him, and yet it's the one issue where he fails to ever make a difference. So I think the assumption is that Liberman is just trying to find a face-saving way to fold to the Haredim. Most likely it will involve just postponing the draft law until Bibi is formally indicted this year and new elections are brought about anyway.

[Walmart_shopper]

An update as coalition negotiations are nearing their end...

Both Liberman and the Haredim continue to threaten to force new elections if they don't get their way with regards to the draft law. Netanyahu asked for and received a two week extension for negotiations, after which he will lose his shot at forming a government. Likud officials have circled a rumor that Liberman and Kahlon, who decided not to merge his Kulanu party with the Likud, may be coordinating to prevent Netanyahu from forming a government. Naturally, Liberman denies this and insists that he just wants to implement the already-agreed  draft law agreement that the Haredim now oppose, and that he wants more guarantees from Netanyahu on security issues.

For his part Netanyahu seems to be set to make existentially massive changes to judicial law, ostensibly taking away the Supreme Court's power of judicial review, which would help reinstate the death penalty and allow the expulsion of refugees. It would also allow the Knesset to pass an immunity law that would shield Bibi from prosecution. These are all top legislative priorities for the right.

It seems unlikely that Liberman or Kahlon would be particularly bothered by any of Netanyahu's fascism, and indeed they are likely to support it. The problem is that they share Israelis' general disgust with the Haredi parties and also with Bibi himself. Virtually everyone in Israel, except the small settler and Haredi minorities, would be happier with a national unity government led by Gideon Saar. The question is whether Liberman and Kahlon are willing to risk new elections to get that, especially when they barely slipped over the threshold in March and may not get over next time.

My hunch is that the Haredim blink first, Liberman gets something very close to his draft law, and a very narrow right wing-theocratic majority quickly goes about rewriting the Basic Law. Obviously nobody knows where this will end up, but it certainly represents the most serious political crisis the country has ever experienced.

Gideon Saar has already established himself as a very non-conforming voice in the Likud (bashing Bibi's Gaza policy, defending his daughter's romantic relationship with an Arab, which amazingly must still be defended in 2019 in this country). So he may have a few tricks up his sleeve.

So new elections seems unlikely to me, but there are very politically credible ways of getting to them if Liberman and Kahlon (and Saar) want to go all Braveheart about this. That's literally been the opposite of how Kahlon and Lieberman typically work, so I'm skeptical.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1129070713661534208?s=19

That's a crisis waiting to happen.

[Vosem]

Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

Huh? 50% of secular Jews in Israel are having 3-6 children?

Maybe. Calculating those numbers out gets you to rather more than the normally reported birthrate for all the groups, though it might be that they're sampling only individuals who are older 40, and I think the normal birthrates sample everybody over some age in the teens; finished fertility will always be higher than actual.

Regardless, yes, Israeli Hilonim are the most fertile secular population in the developed world. In contrast to Haredim (but, if I remember correctly, not in contrast to the other religious groups), they have also been getting more fertile since about the turn of the century, when they actually did briefly dip below replacement. This is something that starts standing out if you read about prominent Israelis -- an incredibly disproportionate number of them have, like, a mid-single digits number of children. There's a deeply natal culture.

[Walmart_shopper]

Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

Huh? 50% of secular Jews in Israel are having 3-6 children?

Maybe. Calculating those numbers out gets you to rather more than the normally reported birthrate for all the groups, though it might be that they're sampling only individuals who are older 40, and I think the normal birthrates sample everybody over some age in the teens; finished fertility will always be higher than actual.

Regardless, yes, Israeli Hilonim are the most fertile secular population in the developed world. In contrast to Haredim (but, if I remember correctly, not in contrast to the other religious groups), they have also been getting more fertile since about the turn of the century, when they actually did briefly dip below replacement. This is something that starts standing out if you read about prominent Israelis -- an incredibly disproportionate number of them have, like, a mid-single digits number of children. There's a deeply natal culture.

I wouldn't exaggerate the secular birthrate too much. It's right at replacement level, which is where it is in some of the more fertile Western countries like Ireland, France, Britain, and until recently the United States. That's a bit better than much if Europe, but without the Arab and Haredi birthrates I think Israeli demographics would he fairly similar to Europe or North America. Israel definitely does have a more natalistic culture, when the country is taken as a while, but in places like Tel Aviv and Haifa it really doesn't exist.

Most secular couples have between 1 and 3 kids, and the statistic that half of them have more than 3 seems highly unlikely.

[The Mikado]

So.. is old Avigdor going to force a redo? Deadline is the 28th.

[Hnv1]

So.. is old Avigdor going to force a redo? Deadline is the 28th.

No. Just squeeze the lemon.

[Walmart_shopper]

With the deadline to form a coalition only five days away, Liberman continues to resist Haredi demands to change the draft law. The latest report (from today) is that Netanyahu is seriously considering calling new elections. He is meeting with party leaders tonight to formalize a decision, it seems. It's hard to know if this is just a leak designed to elicit a last minute concession from the Haredim (or Liberman). It has been thought that Bibi would eventually figure this out, but I think the Likud is a little surprised at Liberman's intransigence.

In any case, it is hard to see new elections benefiting anyone other than Bibi's rivals on the left and right (Bennet and the settlers). Certainly Liberman and Kulanu could cease to exist in The Knesset. The Likud could lose several seats. The Haredim could lose their impressive gains and influence. Bibi has struggled to get support for his dramatic overtures at an immunity law and ending judicial review. So maybe he thinks he can get more than 65 seats with new elections? That's possible. It's also possible the left wins, too. So that's a massive risk if Netanyahu is really wanting to take it for the sake of immunity. But it's an even bigger risk for Liberman and the Haredim who are supposedly behind this whole crisis in the first place.

[Oryxslayer]

I guess Lieberman's game is that he saw what happened in April as Likud, B&W, and the Haredi pillars all rose at the expense of the 'rest.' Lieberman knows that he is part of that 'rest' so he needs some issue or winning point to differentiate himself and pull back Likudites. If this is the move then Lieberman always expected new elections, either in late 2019/2020 when everyone will have to answer the investigations, or sooner over things like the immunity law. Or perhaps he just wishes to see Bibi suffer after the Gaza fiasco from 2018.

Maybe its just the cynic in me,  but I think Bibi would bring his govt to a vote and dare Lieberman to vote No rather than abstain/approve.

[Oryxslayer]

Bibi is going to try his luck with only 60. I assume that in the event event of a tie, no govt is formed, because Lieberman says he would vote No in such a situation. They would need some individual to break ranks at the minimum.

[_]

So are we in sort of a staring contest between Lieberman and YB against Likud?  And if the Government gets voted down is that new elections?

[Walmart_shopper]

So are we in sort of a staring contest between Lieberman and YB against Likud?  And if the Government gets voted down is that new elections?

Who knows? This kind of melodramatic gamesmanship happens all the time in coalition politics in Israel. A lot of people seem to think that eventually someone will fold, although I think it's much more likely to be the Haredim than Liberman. It's notable, though, that no coalition agreement has been inked with any party. The far right is still demanding the justice and education ministries, which would cause a massive uproar. So even they aren't necessarily completely on board yet, although it probably won't take a lot to get them there.

If Bibi can't get 61 votes then the president can either let Gantz give it a shot or call new elections. Because Kulanu is now a pathetic appendage to the Likud, there likely aren't 61 votes for Gantz, either. So new elections are likely if they cannot figure this out by Sunday or Monday.

I really have a hard time seeing the Haredim allowing this to go to new elections, but everyone is surprised that the coalition crisis has gotten this far.

For his part Liberman shrugged this morning at the idea of new elections. In interviews and an op ed in a leading newspaper he insisted that the draft law is a red line and that he prefers new elections to compromise on the issue. It certainly seems like all of the parties are posturing for new elections. But we'll just see if that actually happens.

[Hnv1]

So are we in sort of a staring contest between Lieberman and YB against Likud?  And if the Government gets voted down is that new elections?

No. The president gives a new MK, any (note any and that includes other Likud MKs) MK. A chance to
form a government. Basically there can’t be a new election unless there are 61 MKs who vote for it, I can see a lot of backbenchers trying to avoid that risk.

We never actually had this before where someone failed to form a government, Eshkol de facto did it for BG in the late 50’s but not formally. I think everyone will come around by Tuesday

[Walmart_shopper]

So are we in sort of a staring contest between Lieberman and YB against Likud?  And if the Government gets voted down is that new elections?

No. The president gives a new MK, any (note any and that includes other Likud MKs) MK. A chance to
form a government. Basically there can’t be a new election unless there are 61 MKs who vote for it, I can see a lot of backbenchers trying to avoid that risk.

We never actually had this before where someone failed to form a government, Eshkol de facto did it for BG in the late 50’s but not formally. I think everyone will come around by Tuesday

Apparently Liberman was asked whether he'd join a coalition led not by Netanyahu but another Likudnik. He apparently was not keen on the idea, at least publicly. A Saar government would likely be a national unity governement, and perhaps one of the strongest, most popular leaders, and most stable in years. But I suspect that the gulf between Saar and the Netanyahu devotees is too wide to span in just a few months.

I too am skeptical that we'll get to that point. On the other hand it's clear that if there is to be a compromise it will have to be the Haredim doing the compromising. And they haven't really made a huge effort to do so. Usually they reach for compromise on something and then check with their rabbinic council to see if it is permissible (Liberman is right that these are full, blown, Ayatollah-style theocrats), and then they can put all of the political pressure on their rabbinic factions. But none of that has happened here. Liberman shrugs. The Haredim shrug. And new elections look more not less likely.

[Hnv1]

So are we in sort of a staring contest between Lieberman and YB against Likud?  And if the Government gets voted down is that new elections?

No. The president gives a new MK, any (note any and that includes other Likud MKs) MK. A chance to
form a government. Basically there can’t be a new election unless there are 61 MKs who vote for it, I can see a lot of backbenchers trying to avoid that risk.

We never actually had this before where someone failed to form a government, Eshkol de facto did it for BG in the late 50’s but not formally. I think everyone will come around by Tuesday

Apparently Liberman was asked whether he'd join a coalition led not by Netanyahu but another Likudnik. He apparently was not keen on the idea, at least publicly. A Saar government would likely be a national unity governement, and perhaps one of the strongest, most popular leaders, and most stable in years. But I suspect that the gulf between Saar and the Netanyahu devotees is too wide to span in just a few months.

I too am skeptical that we'll get to that point. On the other hand it's clear that if there is to be a compromise it will have to be the Haredim doing the compromising. And they haven't really made a huge effort to do so. Usually they reach for compromise on something and then check with their rabbinic council to see if it is permissible (Liberman is right that these are full, blown, Ayatollah-style theocrats), and then they can put all of the political pressure on their rabbinic factions. But none of that has happened here. Liberman shrugs. The Haredim shrug. And new elections look more not less likely.

Too many backbenchers who worked hard to become MKs aren’t going to want a new election. On the other hand I can’t see Saar forming a government without splintering Likud. All too theoretical, it will be sorted by Tuesday

[Oryxslayer]

So are we in sort of a staring contest between Lieberman and YB against Likud?  And if the Government gets voted down is that new elections?

No. The president gives a new MK, any (note any and that includes other Likud MKs) MK. A chance to
form a government. Basically there can’t be a new election unless there are 61 MKs who vote for it, I can see a lot of backbenchers trying to avoid that risk.

We never actually had this before where someone failed to form a government, Eshkol de facto did it for BG in the late 50’s but not formally. I think everyone will come around by Tuesday

Apparently Liberman was asked whether he'd join a coalition led not by Netanyahu but another Likudnik. He apparently was not keen on the idea, at least publicly. A Saar government would likely be a national unity governement, and perhaps one of the strongest, most popular leaders, and most stable in years. But I suspect that the gulf between Saar and the Netanyahu devotees is too wide to span in just a few months.

I too am skeptical that we'll get to that point. On the other hand it's clear that if there is to be a compromise it will have to be the Haredim doing the compromising. And they haven't really made a huge effort to do so. Usually they reach for compromise on something and then check with their rabbinic council to see if it is permissible (Liberman is right that these are full, blown, Ayatollah-style theocrats), and then they can put all of the political pressure on their rabbinic factions. But none of that has happened here. Liberman shrugs. The Haredim shrug. And new elections look more not less likely.

Too many backbenchers who worked hard to become MKs aren’t going to want a new election. On the other hand I can’t see Saar forming a government without splintering Likud. All too theoretical, it will be sorted by Tuesday

This was my thought as well. Bibi right now fears a loss of control, which is why new elections are preferable to anyone else getting the government formation baton. in the event he fails, power flows to Gantz who got the second most recommendations to form a government. He could either decline that in favor of Saar (or someone else in Likud) or he could accept the responsibility and begin negotiations as a perspective junior partner. Either way, the power then flows to individual Likud MKs who have to decide if they are more loyal to the party or Bibi. It could produce a split, and or an internal party coup. On one hand Likud is large which usually points towards a split, but on the other hand there are a lot of MKs here who are far down the list with no guarantee of return in the event of new elections. So who knows? Either way, Bibi doesn't want this to happen, and prefers a gamble to maintain personal control over a transfer of powr to another Likudite.

[Hnv1]

So are we in sort of a staring contest between Lieberman and YB against Likud?  And if the Government gets voted down is that new elections?

No. The president gives a new MK, any (note any and that includes other Likud MKs) MK. A chance to
form a government. Basically there can’t be a new election unless there are 61 MKs who vote for it, I can see a lot of backbenchers trying to avoid that risk.

We never actually had this before where someone failed to form a government, Eshkol de facto did it for BG in the late 50’s but not formally. I think everyone will come around by Tuesday

Apparently Liberman was asked whether he'd join a coalition led not by Netanyahu but another Likudnik. He apparently was not keen on the idea, at least publicly. A Saar government would likely be a national unity governement, and perhaps one of the strongest, most popular leaders, and most stable in years. But I suspect that the gulf between Saar and the Netanyahu devotees is too wide to span in just a few months.

I too am skeptical that we'll get to that point. On the other hand it's clear that if there is to be a compromise it will have to be the Haredim doing the compromising. And they haven't really made a huge effort to do so. Usually they reach for compromise on something and then check with their rabbinic council to see if it is permissible (Liberman is right that these are full, blown, Ayatollah-style theocrats), and then they can put all of the political pressure on their rabbinic factions. But none of that has happened here. Liberman shrugs. The Haredim shrug. And new elections look more not less likely.

Too many backbenchers who worked hard to become MKs aren’t going to want a new election. On the other hand I can’t see Saar forming a government without splintering Likud. All too theoretical, it will be sorted by Tuesday

This was my thought as well. Bibi right now fears a loss of control, which is why new elections are preferable to anyone else getting the government formation baton. in the event he fails, power flows to Gantz who got the second most recommendations to form a government. He could either decline that in favor of Saar (or someone else in Likud) or he could accept the responsibility and begin negotiations as a perspective junior partner. Either way, the power then flows to individual Likud MKs who have to decide if they are more loyal to the party or Bibi. It could produce a split, and or an internal party coup. On one hand Likud is large which usually points towards a split, but on the other hand there are a lot of MKs here who are far down the list with no guarantee of return in the event of new elections. So who knows? Either way, Bibi doesn't want this to happen, and prefers a gamble to maintain personal control over a transfer of powr to another Likudite.

If Ganz had any wits he would either call for a rotation giving Likud 2 years to pick their new leader and digging. Or call for Askenazi to form the government hoping he could make more inroads.

Bibi has no reason to want a new election (and the longest interim government ever), he couldn’t pass his personal legislation by the time of his indictment.

[Oryxslayer]

Well this depends on bibi's end goal. If he cares about Likuds future, he avoids elections at all costs. If he wants to save his skin over anything else than 61 votes for the immunity law is all that matters, and new elections could potentially produce said seats.

[Walmart_shopper]

Today Avigdor Liberman reiterated his insistence that either the draft law (and other party demands) be drafted into the coalition agreement or else they're for new elections, "where the people can choose a right wing government or an ultra-Orthodox one." Another Yisrael Beitenu MK insisted that his party was simply trying to prevent the country from becoming "a bunch of Streimel-wearers."

So basically we are in election mode already. This is obviously the gamble of Yvette's political life. I suspect it actually pays off quite handomsely for him, as he comes across looking very good to all but the most intense Netanyahu devotees and the Haredim.

Kahlon yesterday suggested that a minority government wouldn't work out and so he likely wouldn't support one.

I keep thinking of that alleged Vienna meeting between Lapid, Liberman that everyone said never happened. It happened, didn't it?

In any case, Liberman at last has Netanyahu's political career dangling over the edge. It seems increasingly likely that he is going to let it drop.

[The Mikado]

Does Blue & White have a decent chance of even holding where it is now in a repeat election, or, now that the novelty is gone, are a lot of its voters going to go back to older parties?