Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Oryxslayer]

As a reform Jew in the States, I of course would love to see Bibi go down. But, I accept that he is Israels unofficial "Lord of National security" and that Israeli society is more right-leaning then even the US. The one thing that I see though is that Israel right now seems ripe with the eventual Bibi scandals for a 'insurgent' style party or campaign that Weds traditional issues to a distaste of Jerusalem or parties in the Knesset, a style of campaign that seems so common these days. Stuff like Beto and Texas, Jacinda and NZ, Pakatan Harapan and Malaysia, Leave and the UK, Lega in Italy, CAQ in Quebec, AMLO in Mexico, and of course Trump in the US. The only question is from where will this insurgency come from on the spectrum, maybe it's Gantz but I dunno. I will be following this election from afar.

Also how ironic is it that the government collapses on Christmas?

[Oryxslayer]

As a reform Jew in the States, I of course would love to see Bibi go down. But, I accept that he is Israels unofficial "Lord of National security" and that Israeli society is more right-leaning then even the US. The one thing that I see though is that Israel right now seems ripe with the eventual Bibi scandals for a 'insurgent' style party or campaign that Weds traditional issues to a distaste of Jerusalem or parties in the Knesset, a style of campaign that seems so common these days. Stuff like Beto and Texas, Jacinda and NZ, Pakatan Harapan and Malaysia, Leave and the UK, Lega in Italy, CAQ in Quebec, AMLO in Mexico, and of course Trump in the US. The only question is from where will this insurgency come from on the spectrum, maybe it's Gantz but I dunno. I will be following this election from afar.

Also how ironic is it that the government collapses on Christmas?

The insurgent demographic votes for Bibi. what ever you think about western electoral systems does not apply in Israel. end off.

It isn't just a western phenomenon, but democracies outside west are statistically on average weaker, so Authoritarianism is often also part of package. This makes cases harder, but it doesn't dispute things the Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico, and failed insurgencies in Japan and apparently Indonesia.

This of course doesn't ruin your original point that Bibi will likely win if things remain as they are, which I agree with 100%.

[Oryxslayer]

Not expecting a miracle. Gonna take push back from the United States for Israel to get in line. Labor ed up and needs a better leader.

Maybe I'm wrong, but hasn't Labor been in slow decline since Rabin? If so, then the blame is better directed towards the inability of a new left party to rise from it's ashes.

[Oryxslayer]

First poll after the election was more or less called:

Likud 29 (-1 compared to GE15)
Benny Gantz Party 16 (new, +16)
Joint List 12 (-1)
Yesh Atid 11 (nc)
Zionist Union 11 (-13)
Jewish Home 9 (+1)
UTJ 7 (+1)
YB 7 (+1)
Meretz 5 (+1)
Kulanu 5 (-5)
Shas 5 (-2)
Orly Levy Party 4 (new, +4)

What's the dealio with Gantz? Is this really happening? If so, what's his niche? Would be kind of tragic for YA to be polling so well for years just to have all these voters move on to Gantz.

Why do they guys always have to start a new party. There are enough parties as is.

Well, when your electoral rules are are only a touch more restrictive then the open Dutch system, you are incentivised to form a new party rather than reconcile differences within parties.

[Oryxslayer]

Gantz seems like he is trying to go the Macron route, but as we saw in France, that route requires a few of the other competitors to screw up, causing voters to reevaluate their positions. We won't know until 2019 if the Bibi scandals are that catalyst, but I doubt it.

[Oryxslayer]

Isn’t Ayelet Shaked far and away the most popular incumbent Israeli Cabinet member? I assume a party led by her would at least be capable of passing the threshold. Also, the case of leading a small personalist minor party and using it as a vehicle to take the leadership of a major party has happened in Israel — presumably it would be easier for Bennett or Shaked to contend for Likud leadership from within a personalist vehicle than from Jewish Home, which is descended from the NRP and has a long history as an independent political force.

And, yeah, Ayelet Shaked is stunning.

Yeah, as I said above, the electoral rules of Israel favor solving issues via out-party pathways like elections rather than in-party negotiations. There obviously going to have a future in Likud, but do you guys think they are dreaming bigger? Trying to build
case for ousting Bibi from the right similar to Gantz's moves from the Left/Center for example.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, it fairly clear the election will now be permanently framed as a two horse race. Might kill the chances of some minors to get in, if there is monumental pressure to cast a 'meaningful' vote for the big two.

[Oryxslayer]

Gantz/Yesh Atid is not trying to form a left-wing coalition. They are trying to get more seats than Likud and force them into a grand coalition.

Can't exclude this possibility, it's true, but the party seems crammed with center-left people and in a grand coalition with Likud not much would change in terms of policy (unless Likud decide to set their relationship with the Haredim on fire). I see no reason why Likud would do this, even if they don't top the poll.

Well, I mean look at your countries 2013 election. The VVD and PvdA sold the election as a two horse race, and then formed a Grand Coalition post-election since the math was favorable. Never discount the desire for power, especially if Bibi has resigned party leadership following this hypothetical defeat.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah, thats a shock poll all right...

[Oryxslayer]

More polls came out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Israeli_legislative_election

Generally they all confirm the same thing: B&W Lead, but a tiny Right government lead that vanishes if someone falls below the threshold. That said, Channel 13 is no longer alone in predicting Likud getting less then 30 seats.

[Oryxslayer]

By the way, AJC and AIPAC denounced Bibi earlier this week over his moves to get Otzma in government. Probably has no impact, but its important to note.

[Oryxslayer]

By the way, AJC and AIPAC denounced Bibi earlier this week over his moves to get Otzma in government. Probably has no impact, but its important to note.

Did they? All I saw was a condemnation of Otzma without mentioning Bibi.

Exactly. The JPost had an article pointing this out.

Yeah my original post wasn't that clear - they denounced Otzma trying to enter the Knesset, and said Bibi shouldn't help them. They didn't denounce him or his policies. they just said the equivalent of 'we don't negotiate with terrorists.'

[Oryxslayer]

Well TBH, the preconditions for forming a Grand-Coalition government are far easier to obtain then one that relies of support from Arab parties outside the government. All that is needed is:

- The 'All-Right' Government to get 60 seats or less, a precondition for any B&W government
- A healthy gap between B&W and Likud - say 7 seats or greater
- Likud to drop Bibi as part of negotiations

[Oryxslayer]

Another thing to remember is that that B&W could be lying about the Grand Coalition. Their entire proposal this election will be that they are the sensible ones - not supporting Arabs, not supporting Jewist Authoritarians, and not running an indicted candidate. Giving Likud a bear hug coalition-wise say "we're just Likud, but less questionable" to the Likud voters they need to win. Then if the option is available, after obtaining the Likud votes at the polls, they go seak Meretz/Labor support rather than Likud.

[Oryxslayer]

I care about sexual allegations, but the problem for the right might be that Israel won't. As smoltchanov constantly says, different countries have different political cultures and are tolerant of different things. #MeToo has been purely a US phenomenon to the best of my knowledge.

On a different note, there have been two polls this week. Both find a gap of more then five between B&W and Likud, but only one has the pure right government over 60 seats.

Maagar Mochot/Midgam

B&W: 36/35
Likud: 31/29
New Right: 9/6
Labor: 8/9
JH/TK/Otzma: 8/5
UTJ: 7/7
Hadaash/Taal: 7/7
Shas: 7/5
Meretz: 7/4
Balad/Raam: 0/5
YB: 0/4
Kulanu: 0/4

If Likud loses 5 seats purely off of the indictment, and lets be generous and say only 2 cross the block lines to B&W, then they will definitely begin to look like a party in chaos. They would be down more than 10 on B&W, a gap that we assume be more than enough to give Gantz the first attempt at government formation. But there is still a more than a month until people go to the polls...

[Oryxslayer]

I care about sexual allegations, but the problem for the right might be that Israel won't. As smoltchanov constantly says, different countries have different political cultures and are tolerant of different things. #MeToo has been purely a US phenomenon to the best of my knowledge.

It really hasn't. Israel isn't like America where every accusation is viewed as complete and full evidence (at least if the alleged perpetrator is on the right), but plenty of countries, including Israel, had their own #MeToo discussions which have taken down quite a lot of powerful people.

Oh #Metoo was certainly a global phenomenon, and I'm not denying that politicians have sex scandals - that's a normal occurrence. However, what I meant was as you noted: the accuser getting the halo of truth and the accused being a politician, the events occuring during 2017/2018 period, and the scandal results in the man becoming a political anchor - losing a election or losing th media battle for a period. Glacing over the #Metoo wiki page, there are a few other countries that bring down a few politicians, but the #MeToo movement is more about women's dignity when it went global, with the public targets being private rather then public individuals.

[Oryxslayer]

This poll has to be wrong...right? If Bibi indicted (I mean it's happened...) B&W gets 44 to Likuds 25. I mean their current numbers are in line with what everyone else is saying...



https://www.timesofisrael.com/indictment-announcement-is-an-election-game-changer-times-of-israel-poll-shows/

[Oryxslayer]

Also, this election seems to have a lot of "2015 election" vibes. I mean, Bibi is the underdog, like in 2015, faces a major center-left coalition, like in 2015, and seems to have everything against him, like in 2015. Is it possible that Bibi figure could polarize almost every rightwing votes in Likud and put Shas, UTJ and other rightwing forces under water?  

That's the big fear of the Israeli Right-Wing presently. They depend more parties close to the threshold, so if votes start centralizing, they end up wasting more. There are of course two problems with it right now: a bunch of the minor right parties have bases loyal to a fault, and that the Bibi scandal is right now pushing voters away from Likud. But the danger is always there.

[Oryxslayer]

According to wiki, we earlier missed a poll earlier from midgam. But its no biggie - right 61 to 59, Likud behind B&W by less seats then during the scandal. Zehuts not in though.

[Oryxslayer]

New Magar Mochot Poll, Parentheses mean change since last time polled.

B&W 33 ()
Likud 26 ()
Meretz 8 ()
Labour 7 (-1)
URWP 7 (-1)
UTJ 7 (-1)
Hadaash-taal 6 (-3)
New Right 6 (-2)
Shaas 5 (+1)
Zehut 5 (+1)
YB 5 (+5)
Kulanu 5 (+1)

Ways to interpret results:

Left+Arabs 54 /Right 66
6 Arabs / 48 Left / 10 Centre  / 56 Pure Right

Technically with these results a Grand Coalition barely has a majority. More minors means a harder life for B&W...Maybe Bibi as well if he needs to juggle more parties then presently.

[Oryxslayer]

what's happen with Gantz ? the bibi indict. was the game changer and now, Bibi is first.

Centralization of right wing voters. We predicted something like this might happen when B&W formed, but I'm surprised it hasn't caused more casualties in the minors yet. There have been two movements right now it appears: Likud -> Kulanu/Zehut if you don't like Bibi's scandals, Right -> Likud to protect against B&W. With this centralization, and Ari off the list, I would't be surprised if the first minor under is URWP.

But the other thing is that there is a lot of flux right now, what with who was banned and not banned. It could benefit the left, or the right depending on the narrative.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, we got polls after the court cases. The swings are interesting, but it seems that URWP is not affected by the incident, but Balad-Ra'am is now consistently getting into the Knesset.

Swings seatwise from last time. HaMidgam 13/Midgam 12/Smith/Maagar Mochot.

B&W: 0, +1, -1, -3
Likud:  +1, -1, -2, 0

Labor: +2, 0, +1, +2
Meretz:  -1, 0, 0, -2
Hadaash-Ta'al: 0, +1, -1, -1
Balad-Ra'am: -1, 0, 0, +4(entry)

URWP: 0, -2, 0, 0
UTJ:  +1, 0, +1, -1
Shas: 0, -1, +1, -1
New Right: 0, +2, 0, -1
YB: -4(Out), 0, 0, -1

Zehut: +1, 0, +4(entry), +1
Kulanu: +1, 0, +1, -1
Gesher: 0(out), 0(out), -4(out), +4(entry)

56/58/55/58 Pure Left+Arabs, 54/54/56/52 Pure Right + 10/8/9/10 Center(Kulanu+Zehut)
 

[Oryxslayer]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true.

from my experience, private polls are not better than public ones.

TBH, all polls in 2015 were off the final result by a country mile. So maybe there is something we are not seeing, and polls will once again be consistently off.  I'm wondering why the interview happened now, when Trump just gave Bibi a lifeline with the Golon statement. It changes the media's topic from one that benefits Bibi to an uncertain one.

Another possibility exists: Bibi doesn't want to form another all-right government. Polls are showing that he would have to add more parties, potentially zehut whose loyalty is uncertain. So it might be easier for B&W and Likud to just form a government, no matter who comes in first. The potential downside is that Bibi would certainly need to step back as part of B&W demands, but this might not be a downside if Bibi knows he is finished

[Oryxslayer]

The Hebrew University's lawschool student council was hosting an election panel tonight, where, amongst others, URWP's Bezalel Smotrich, Labour's Revital Swid and Meretz's Michal Rozin were supposed to attend. The URWP switched their representative from Smotrich to Kahanist Itamar Ben Gvir in the last moments, prompting Labour, Meretz and the Arab parties to withdraw. There's going to be a demonstration to stop the outrage of bringing this murder-supporter here.

Shocking, the approval of candidates by the SC gives them a moral approval in public eyes...it's like liberals didn't say that it will happen.

As I recall from my days the Law Faculty's student union were basically the mediocre students who looked for some lines in their CVs, I'm not surprised by any blunder they make.

I'm not sure what your trying to say here...that because the court only banned Ben Ari kahanism is okay? An analogy might be that because the Kahanists ended a fight with only several broken bones and a hospital trip rather than dead means that they won the publics approval? I don't get the logic.

[Oryxslayer]

New Migdam/Channel 12 poll:

B&W: 32
Likud: 28
Labor: 10
Hadash/Ta'al: 7
United Torah Judaism: 7
Shas: 6
New Right: 5
URWP: 5
Zehut: 4
Gesher: 4
Yisrael Beiteinu: 4
Ra'am/Balad: 4
Meretz: 4

--------------------------

Kulanu - 2.6%

When analyzing these numbers, its important to remember that Channel 13 was also fed a similar data set, but has different weights. They found Gesher and YB to be below the threshold, and Kulanu to be above, but the end result is the same: Right wing majority if everyone can work together. But parties like Zehut, Kulanu, and Gesher have uncertain loyalties, and anyone of them might prefer to provide the one vote needed needed for GC (right now) and get a prized portfolio, rather then be one of eight fighting over government slots.