Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Walmart_shopper]

Good that Lapid and Gantz have united, makes the race more interesting. Since the election is mainly about bloc strength rather than about party strength, I'm personally not completely sure it was a smart move from Gantz to unite with Lapid: I am very skeptical they will attract the number of Likud voters necessary to get to 61. Even if Gantz/Lapid get to 36-37 seats and top the poll, where do they go from there? They presumably suck the life out of Labour, who would get to 5-7 seats, and Meretz wit 4-5 seats - so say you're at 47-48 then. They should hope Gesher and Kulanu will both get in and will both reject Bibi, who will possibly have been indicted by then. Still doesn't get you to 61 and this already requires quite a bit of luck. I don't think Balad and Ta'al will nominate Gantz after his populist campaign videos cheering on the death toll in Gaza. You'd have a coalition depending on an ideological range from Kulanu to Hadash and every single one of them would have to agree on it. Not impossible, but difficult as hell for sure.

Meanwhile the math remains much easier for Bibi. Even if he is like 5 seats behind and gets to 32 or so, he might only need the New Right, BY-NU/Otzma and the Haredim. He may either already be at 61 or be in the high 50s - if YB gets in, he's definitely there already. If not, it's trickier and Kulanu/Gesher would be kingmakers.

In essence all of this is about a) getting a sizeable enough number of right-wing voters to vote for Gantz/Lapid and b) having a convincing argument for Kulanu/Gesher to support Gantz over Bibi. I suppose they try to achieve a) by putting Ashkenazi on the slate and b) by uniting and becoming so much bigger than Likud that it will be illogical for Kulanu/Gesher to reject Gantz, especially after an indictment. It's the only shot Gantz has, so if I were him, I would be doing exactly the same even if doing b) by uniting with Lapid may jeopardize the prospects of a). But it would still take a ton of luck for it to work out.

This is conventional wisdom, but I'm not that's it's really so wise. It's true that Kahlon, if he even gets his four mandates, will have a hard time joining a government with Hadash in it. But I'm not sure he'll feel particularly good about joining a Kahanist government led by a prime minister under indictment. Gantz actually said something very interesting yesterday. He flayed Bibi for backing the BY-Fascist unity deal, and he said that it would be like allowing Balad into government. It makes you wonder if Ayman Odeh, who is actually one of the more reasonable voices in Israeli politics, has spoken to Gantz already about future coalitions. He could easily split the Joint List and ditch Balad to get Gantz to 61.

But I'm not sure it will even come to that. If it comes down to a government with Meretz and Labor in it versus a theocratic one, I suspect Lieberman squeezes every Ruble out of the budget that he can and goes with the people who will legislate civil marriage and religious freedom, which is by farore important to his voters than enabling Bibi to set fire to the judiciary. Gantz's path to 61is tough, but probably no less tough than it is for the right's Kahanist Alliance.

[Walmart_shopper]

Ta'al and Hadash are merging - so Hadash also leaves the Joint List.

Balad is the most politically toxic part of the Joint List, and probably the least likely to back a Gantz government. I wouldn't at all be surprised if this is positioning them to back Gantz for PM. I think the last time an Arab party actually supported a government was Rabin.

[Walmart_shopper]

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Nope. But mainly because it looks like a front for pro-Israel American Evangelicals. A true Christian party could actually succeed with a platform of social cohesion, integration, and religious freedom--like a dovish Yisrael Beitenu, basically. Ayman Odeh has actually done a lot of work framing issues in a way that resonates with Arab Christian voters, and I think that's part of why he's been successful as an Arab political leader.

In any case, this weird pluralistic version of the Likud, while quaint, will not succeed.

[Walmart_shopper]

Kahlon now uses the slogan "sane right". Not sure if he's explicitly placed Kulanu on the right before.

I mean, if he was going to try to posture again as some centrist white knight he probably should have resisted the Pavlovian urge to follow Bibi wherever he's gone these last four years.

But that's Kahlon's problem now. "Sane right" voters are stuck between two blocs, one sane and one right, and everyone, including Bibi, who hitched his ride to the Kahanist clown car, knows that that's what's at stake in this election.

[Walmart_shopper]

Apparently Ale Yarok is not running this year. That actually could be significant because they are usually one of the more successful parties to never cross the threshold like.  There are two or three mandates there that will probably go to Meretz/Gantz/too stoned to bother voting.

Also, Eli Yishai's Yahad party is not joining the Kahanist Alliance, which is interesting given the fact that those are literally his voters (except for a few disaffected Shas voters who miss him as party head). That's another 3 percent possibility lost for the right wing, assuming that he doesn't pass the threshold.

[Walmart_shopper]

First poll after the mergers by Channel 13:

Blue and White: 36
Likud: 26
Hadash-Taal: 10
Kahanists: 8
UTJ: 7
Shas: 6
Labor: 5
New Right: 5
Yisrael Beitenu: 5
Kulanu: 4
Meretz: 4
Balad-Raam: 4

Three thoughts about this:

1. Gantz would get the first shot at forming a government if he clears Likud by 10 mandates, even though the right technically has 61 seats here. Period. And, frankly, it's hard to see even Kahlon backing an indicted Bibi after he gets walloped like this.

2. Here Arabs have 14 seats, and have virtually no meaningful representation in government.  The Haredim have 13 and essentually stand to hold the government hostage. I actually think that Gantz using Arab parties to become PM may be a politically smart thing to do especially if it shrugs off the Haredim and Kahanists.

3. Everyone assumed that math alone gave Bibi a decent edge in the election. If other polls confirm the accuracy of this one, it's hard to see this as anything other than 50/50 at this point. The indictment expected by the end of February will probably determine whether this sits on knife's edge through March or whether Bibi begins to consider handing the party off before Election Day to prevent the left from getting power.

[Walmart_shopper]

And another from Channel 12:

Blue and white: 36
Likud: 30
Labor: 8
UTJ: 7
New Right: 6
Hadash/Balad: 6
Taal: 6
Shas: 5
Yisrael Beitenu: 4
Meretz: 4
Kulanu: 4
Jewish Home: 4

The right bloc has 60 seats, with 12 on the threshold. The left/Arab opposition has 60, with 4 on the cusp of dropping below the threshold.

[Walmart_shopper]

One more from Kan:

Blue and white: 35
Likud: 32
Hadash/Taal: 11
Labor: 8
New Right: 7
Jewish Home: 6
Shas: 6
UTJ: 6
YB: 5
Meretz: 4

Balad, Gesher, and Kulanu all miss the threshold.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can New Right support Gantz, if for example Bibi will be indicted?

No.

Of course they can. The whole point of the New Right is to form a plausible right wing heir to Bibi, and supporting an indicted right wing nemesis to prop him up is not exactly a slam dunk. I do think they'd prefer Bibi if the mandates are there for a right wing majority, but it's not a simple calculation.

[Walmart_shopper]

I totally get the logic of Netanyahu's maneuvers around Otzma and JH/NU but why does he have to be so open about it.  It seems him being so actively involved to get Otzma above the threshold will lose him moderate/centrist votes to Blue & White.  Is he not better off doing this behind the scenes in smoke filled rooms ?

I think you have a very valid point here and would have preferred for it to take place behind closed doors, but I think the strategy was as follows: it was intended to increase the pressure on JH/NU to do it. There was and remains considerable opposition to the alliance with Otzma within religious Zionist circles.

What's more, to the electorate it conveys the message that the stakes are very high and the risk of a left-wing government is real, which should drive up turnout among the part of the electorate that often stays home but, if they do vote, only vote for Likud. The same segment that Bibi sought to mobilize when he made the statement about Arabs voting in droves during the last election.

A recent poll of national religious voters had support for the Kahanist alliance at about 75 percent. Religious Zionists fear the left more than they fear being fascists.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some things:

- I think this poll confirms what I've been thinking for a while: Netanyahu still has an easier path to form a government than Gantz, but the gap between the "blocs" has been tightening. This is probably because Blue and White attracted a number of voters worth 1-3 seats from Likud directly following the merger with YA. These could of course be all sorts of voters, but I think Blue and White might be attractive to voters from the former Soviet Union in particular. Most of them will of course still vote for Likud but if enough of them jump ship to Blue and White this might determine the outcome of the election.

- The right bloc depends on a higher number of parties hovering around the threshold: Kulanu, Shas, YB. If even one doesn't make it in, that could have important consequences. And I would even include URWP here, polling at 5-7 seats. It's worth remembering that Yachad were actually in according to all the pre-2015 GE polls. Among the DL public there is now an extreme and imo false sense that URWP are safe, which is probably based on earlier polls that had them at 8-10 seats. I've seen people advertise Zehut using this argument

- The pre-2015 polls were pretty good but overestimated ZU by ~2-3 seats and underestimated Likud by that same amount or more, even taking into account the fact that polls aren't predictions and that Likud had strong momentum during the polling blackout and on e-day: the exit polls had this bias too. ZU were leading Likud in all the polls. I'm not sure if the pollsters have revised their methodology, and we can't discard the possibility that there is, again, a shy Likud vote out there.

- The biggest unknown is obviously the electoral and political effect of a Netanyahu indictment.

In any case, Gantz can't really get a majority coalition until there's a mass exodus of Likud voters to Blue and White so that he wins, in combination with Labour (that has to stay at about double-digits), Meretz and Kulanu\Gesher 60 seats. That'd require roughly 40 seats for Gantz-Lapid, 10 for Labour, 5 for Meretz and 5 for Gesher or Kulanu, whoever passes the threshold. Fantasy scenario if I ever saw one. Otherwise, it's a minority government supported by the "moderate" Arabs, something many Israelis see as problematic.

Exactly, and Netanyahu needs to campaign on this in the second phase of his campaign once the "Gantz is left and weak" mantra he is currently pushing has been ingrained in people's minds.

In this scenario it's new elections or PM Gantz leading a national unity government. Bibi is sitting at 60 or 61 seats right now, which simply won't get him a coalition. And there are literally no other partners conceivably available to him. I'm not saying that Gantz has an easy path, but if he finishes 6 or 7 sears ahead of Likud he'll either be able to bring Likud on board or else simply see new elections. The point is that finishing several seats behind Gantz and only getting 61 mandates virtually ensures that Bibi will not be PM from these elections. A lot can change. And maybe he'll do better with new elections. But right now I don't see how he actually hangs on.

[Walmart_shopper]

Since when is it such a sure thing that Kulanu would back Bibi ober Gantz?

It's not. But I think a small overperformance by Gantz could probably shift the analysis a bit for them, too. In any case they aren't going to back Arab parties in government, so unless Gantz really overperforms I don't see it happening.

It's tough because national unity, which Kulanu would almost certainly push for, without the Haredim, the right and without Meretz, is probably the only way to avoid an electoral stalemate that gives us new elections.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some things:

- I think this poll confirms what I've been thinking for a while: Netanyahu still has an easier path to form a government than Gantz, but the gap between the "blocs" has been tightening. This is probably because Blue and White attracted a number of voters worth 1-3 seats from Likud directly following the merger with YA. These could of course be all sorts of voters, but I think Blue and White might be attractive to voters from the former Soviet Union in particular. Most of them will of course still vote for Likud but if enough of them jump ship to Blue and White this might determine the outcome of the election.

- The right bloc depends on a higher number of parties hovering around the threshold: Kulanu, Shas, YB. If even one doesn't make it in, that could have important consequences. And I would even include URWP here, polling at 5-7 seats. It's worth remembering that Yachad were actually in according to all the pre-2015 GE polls. Among the DL public there is now an extreme and imo false sense that URWP are safe, which is probably based on earlier polls that had them at 8-10 seats. I've seen people advertise Zehut using this argument

- The pre-2015 polls were pretty good but overestimated ZU by ~2-3 seats and underestimated Likud by that same amount or more, even taking into account the fact that polls aren't predictions and that Likud had strong momentum during the polling blackout and on e-day: the exit polls had this bias too. ZU were leading Likud in all the polls. I'm not sure if the pollsters have revised their methodology, and we can't discard the possibility that there is, again, a shy Likud vote out there.

- The biggest unknown is obviously the electoral and political effect of a Netanyahu indictment.

In any case, Gantz can't really get a majority coalition until there's a mass exodus of Likud voters to Blue and White so that he wins, in combination with Labour (that has to stay at about double-digits), Meretz and Kulanu\Gesher 60 seats. That'd require roughly 40 seats for Gantz-Lapid, 10 for Labour, 5 for Meretz and 5 for Gesher or Kulanu, whoever passes the threshold. Fantasy scenario if I ever saw one. Otherwise, it's a minority government supported by the "moderate" Arabs, something many Israelis see as problematic.

Exactly, and Netanyahu needs to campaign on this in the second phase of his campaign once the "Gantz is left and weak" mantra he is currently pushing has been ingrained in people's minds.

In this scenario it's new elections or PM Gantz leading a national unity government. Bibi is sitting at 60 or 61 seats right now, which simply won't get him a coalition. And there are literally no other partners conceivably available to him. I'm not saying that Gantz has an easy path, but if he finishes 6 or 7 sears ahead of Likud he'll either be able to bring Likud on board or else simply see new elections. The point is that finishing several seats behind Gantz and only getting 61 mandates virtually ensures that Bibi will not be PM from these elections. A lot can change. And maybe he'll do better with new elections. But right now I don't see how he actually hangs on.

If Ganz gets 3+ more seats than Likud it would be almost illegitimate to allow Likud to form a government and there would be a lot of pressure of Kulanu to accept the popular will

And it also doesn't help Bibi that the man who decides who gets to form the government, Rubi Rivlin, is literally Bibi's political rival who would like nothing more than to find some reason to let Gantz be PM.

[Walmart_shopper]

as of right now, would you rather be Bibi or Gantz?

I'd rather be Gantz because I don't have a massive indictment hanging over my head while trying to thread the needle on an electoral coalition that will include Kahanists and still only get me a 2 seat majority.

Even if Bibi does cobble together 62 seats it will be with one of the most unmanageable and unpopular governments in the country's history, teeing up the left for a win in just a year when new elections are called when he is sent to prison.

Honestly, if Bibi stepped down today and Gideon Saar took over party leadership you'd have a totally different political analysis, and a totally healthier politics for the right and for the country. Bibi is simply trying to find a way to stay out of prison and that explains why he's teaming up with theocrats and fascists to prop him up. Most Israelis are disgusted by him, it's just that half the country is also terrified of what the left will do if given power.

[Walmart_shopper]

I realize that these blocs don't make a whole lot of sense anymore after Gantz/Lapid's announcement (and it's questionable if they ever did), but for the big picture in terms of voter movement and on whether Netanyahu has an outright right-wing majority, I think it's still good to display the polls this way. But I'll use "parties" instead of "bloc".

Maagar Mochot for Israel Hayom:

Right-religious parties 62 seats
Likud 31
New Right 9
URWP 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7

Center-left-coalitionable Arab parties 58 seats
Blue and White 36
Labour 8
Meretz 7
Hadash-Ta'al 7

Ra'am-Balad, Yisrael Beiteinu, Kulanu, Gesher, Zehut and others 0

I'm taking Yisrael Hayom poll with a grain of salt after they had Zehut passing a few times, but this one is interesting. Meretz at 7, Labour holding on in the high single digits, Kulanu AND Yisrael Beiteinu not passing and the Likud right-wing coalition becoming very, very religious and extreme. Also the Arabs losing almost half their strength, which seems weird because if Balad-Ra'am don't pass (I assume they have 3 seats here and Hadash-Ta'al are at 7, it amounts to just 10 while the Arabic power is usually 12-13 in the polls. Were Arabs in this particular poll more inclined to support Meretz (as well they should with two of Meretz's top 5 being Arabs) than usual? So yeah, a grain of salt but interesting.

Also re: national unity government- I obviously prefer it to the religious theocracy of Likud-New Right-URWP-Shas-UTJ, but it goes to show why I find it so important to strengthen Labour even if I much prefer Gantz to Bibi.

as of right now, would you rather be Bibi or Gantz?

Gantz, but that's because I don't want to go to jail. Electorally speaking, Bibi.

I'm also on the left, but I would prefer national unity to a leftist coalition. A broad secular-centrist government would be able to effect so many important changes that huge majorities of Israelis want. In separating religion and state and building the economy with a social conscience you touch on some of the most popular values among voters. And any major peace initiatives should have broad support anyway.

[Walmart_shopper]

Well TBH, the preconditions for forming a Grand-Coalition government are far easier to obtain then one that relies of support from Arab parties outside the government. All that is needed is:

- The 'All-Right' Government to get 60 seats or less, a precondition for any B&W government
- A healthy gap between B&W and Likud - say 7 seats or greater
- Likud to drop Bibi as part of negotiations

Still doesn't happen if the right bloc parties have a majority (without Kulanu) and continue to insist on forming a government with Bibi as PM.

Probably true. But getting to 63 (which is what you need for a legitimate, working majority) without Kahlon seems pretty difficult at this point. I suspect the election at this point is who exactly leads the national unity government, not whether we get one.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can New Right support Gantz, if for example Bibi will be indicted?

No.

Of course they can. The whole point of the New Right is to form a plausible right wing heir to Bibi, and supporting an indicted right wing nemesis to prop him up is not exactly a slam dunk. I do think they'd prefer Bibi if the mandates are there for a right wing majority, but it's not a simple calculation.

It is. They can’t support him or they’ll be fine with their electorate and one of them would like to succeed Bibi which won’t happen if they crown Gantz

There's also a huge rift between them and Gantz- they're staunchly right-wing and would never crown someone whose party is, in the end, associated with the center-left.

The Likud says that there is some chatter between Gantz and the New Right. That may just be a planted story for the Likud to squeeze some more seats out of the New Right. But it is also possible that Bennet could push Gantz towards a center-right national unity government. It's hard to imagine a situation in which Gantz willingly lets the New Right call the shots in coalition agreements unless the left is also a part of the fun. Gantz's voters are firmly center-left and selling the farm to Naftali Bennet would be the dumbest political move in the history of politics ever.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm also on the left, but I would prefer national unity to a leftist coalition. A broad secular-centrist government would be able to effect so many important changes that huge majorities of Israelis want. In separating religion and state and building the economy with a social conscience you touch on some of the most popular values among voters. And any major peace initiatives should have broad support anyway.

Yeah, I'd also prefer a Gantz-lead national unity government to a narrow minority government supported by Balad and Ra'am from outside, and to a right-wing Likud-lead government. My ideal situation, of course, would be a pragmatic center-left government lead by Labour, Meretz and some centrist parties but it's a pipe dream by now. What I meant was that if we're talking about a national unity government, I want Labour to be as big as possible there to ensure that this government looks out for people like me and doesn't sell out.

Labour, Meretz are petitioning the Election Commission led by High Court Justice Melcer to ban Otzma from taking part in the election. The reason would be that Michael Ben-Ari, who is at #5 on the URWP list, was a co-founder of Rabbi Meir Kahane's Jewish Idea yeshiva. If this happens, which I doubt, it would prove that the country's institutions moved to the left, given that Ben-Ari was in the Knesset from 2009-13 already.

It wouldn't prove anything except that now new facts about this man are known now or that a different judge heard this case in a different context. Saying that Israel's institutions moved left is absolutely ridiculous and borders on scapegoating at this point, the right is controlling this country with increasingly extreme governments for more than a decade now. By the way, Labour as a party didn't send this petition- it was MK Stav Shafir. Meretz as a party did.

Meretz, meanwhile, said that their representatives would refuse to be interviewed in the media alongside Otzma members. Good step imo and something I'd like to see my party doing as well, especially after Yaya Fink's interview a while back when he had to put up with Itamar Ben Gvir. When Fink attacked Ben Gvir for defending the picture of Baruch Goldstein in his home ("I have his picture because he's a doctor who treated Jews, not because he killed Arabs"), Yoav Kish (Likud) attacked *Fink* by asking "you disqualify them? Shame on you, they're Zionists, what about Tibi?" and made it clear to me that the entire right- Likud, JH and NU are all tarnished by the Kahanist stain and are all part of legitimizing these evil, racist, heinous men.

The right wing has spent four solid years packing the courts, including the Supreme Court, with sympathetic jurists. If the courts have moved left it is an attempt to balance out the grotesque lurch to the right by the political system, not unlike John Roberts' new centrism in the US Supreme Court.

[Walmart_shopper]

There are dozens and dozens of democratic states, but there is only one Jewish state - a state that can only remain a safe haven for Jews both in Israel and abroad if it indeed continues to be Jewish. History has taught us that we can never be sure to have a future as Jews outside a Jewish country. An undemocratic Jewish state would be utterly wrong and I absolutely want Israel to remain democratic, but it would still be safe for Jews. Should Israel cede being a Jewish state, however, the door would be opened to the persecution of Jews both in Israel and elsewhere. This is why anti-Zionist parties are more dangerous than antidemocratic ones. Which is why I think Balad and the like are actually worse than Otzma. Zionism is the only thing that stands between us and another Holocaust - and I don't use the latter phrase lightly.

But this seems quite enough on this subject for now...

Ask Israel's large non-Jewiah majority how glorious the "safe haven for Jews is" especially if led by supporters of Kahanist parties, like Bibi. Or ask the large secular Jewish majority how much they appreciate Jewish theocracy. I think the point is a non-democraticKahanist government basically stops being "a save haven" for anyone, Jewish or not.

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu is not a "supporter of Kahanist parties", he just wants a majority and realizes he may need one or two Otzma MKs to get to 61 MKs. You are a troll and your "contributions" are beyond worthless, so I'm putting you on ignore.

Spare me, David. Your support for a Kahanist government is far more vulgar and despicable than anything I could ever write. 

Bibi literally took the initiative himself to midwife the Kahanists into a place where they could join his government. That's precisely what support looks like.

[Walmart_shopper]

Wasn't the National Union in government when Ben-Ari was an MK before?

No, when the Bayit Yehudi split from the national union in 2009 it left Ben Ari out of government. The National Union was in government in the early 2000s with Sharon but Ben Ari wasn't a part of it.

Notably, today Naftali Bennet emphasized that he doesn't believe that the Kahanists should be in governmen. Who even knows what that means, though.

[Walmart_shopper]

Another thing to remember is that that B&W could be lying about the Grand Coalition. Their entire proposal this election will be that they are the sensible ones - not supporting Arabs, not supporting Jewist Authoritarians, and not running an indicted candidate. Giving Likud a bear hug coalition-wise say "we're just Likud, but less questionable" to the Likud voters they need to win. Then if the option is available, after obtaining the Likud votes at the polls, they go seak Meretz/Labor support rather than Likud.

I think national unity is a lot more plausible than getting the Arab parties on board and then getting to 61 seats. So it's probably not a ruse.

[Walmart_shopper]

Indictment decision in the coming days. That will shake everything

The polling I've seen shifts a few seats away from Likud. But the big question is whether it will shift a few seats away from the Kahanist coalition.

If Mandelblit only indicts on 1000 and 4000, but not on 2000 (the Noni Mozes bribery charge), does that make any political difference than if were to indict in all three?

[Walmart_shopper]

Bibi is flying home from Moscow early tomorrow because apparently tomorrow evening he will be indicted on charges in all three investigations against him, although in Case 2000 it will be for breach of trust rather than the more serious bribery (Case 4000 will be for bribery).

It's highly unlikely that he'll step down. Hopefully voters will help him with that.

I wonder if they'll get around to indicting Aryeh Deri (again), as expected, before April 9th. The moral degradation of the right wing in Israel is pretty shocking even by Middle East standards, which tends to excuse a lot.

[Walmart_shopper]

Hi, simple and armature question from me:   My understanding is that Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  If so then why are Arab parties only winning around 9%-11% of the vote?  Is it because not all Arabs are citizens (my understanding is that people in East Jerusalem can vote which I assume have to include that Arabs that live there)? Is it because Arab turn out a lower rates?  Perhaps Christian and Druze Arabs do not vote for the Arab parties?  If so why do they vote for?

I am asking because it seems to me if the Arab parties can get to around 20% of the seats they can pretty much cause political chaos by forcing constant grand coalitions since in such a situation I cannot see how Right-Religious or the Left-secular bloc every getting a majority without bringing in Arab parties into the government or buy them off.

Arab turnout is the lowest of all sectors. Some simply boycott/shrug off Israeli elections, although I think that's starting to change. Especially this year the expectation is for a more significant Arab turnout. Usually the Arab vote is diffuse between Meretz, Avodah, Shas (incredibly), and the biggest chunk is for the Arab parties.

If Arabs voted in average numbers and worked within more established parties then the country would he transformed politically. People who talk about "the Israeli public" being right wing always forget about the 25 percent of the population that isn't Jewish (and isn't right wing).