Which played a bigger role in deciding 2004?

[darklordoftech]

I've heard both.

[RINO Tom]

First one.  IMO, enough of the single issue SSM marriage voters were in states that were already safe for Bush that the first factor mattered more.  Both were obviously important.  Here were the exit poll breakdowns:

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
Terrorism (19%): 86% GOP, 14% DEM
Moral Values (22%): 80% GOP, 18% DEM

That cracks out to ~34.71% of Bush's support coming from people who said "Moral Issues" were their most important issue and ~32.22% of his support coming from people who said "Terrorism" was their most important issue.  It should also be noted that 15% of voters surveyed said that "Iraq" was their most important issue, and Bush won 26% of those voters ... while obviously the bulk of them were Kerry voters making anti-war votes, I think it is safe to assume that the remaining 26% of them were war hawks supporting the war effort.  That would bring the total voting for Bush for mainly foreign policy reasons up to 39.92% of his total voters.

That is a simplified approach, but it is the best we have (I think).  Considering how many of those voters who said "Moral Values" were probably in Deep Southern states and otherwise safe Bush states, I have to imagine that there were slightly more swing state voters who pushed him over the top due to foreign policy-driven votes, but I could be wrong.

[Hydera]

That video Osama released just before the election definitely helped Bush, He would had lost Iowa and New Mexico and likely Ohio without that video causing last minute mobilization and some vote switching from lean kerry to Bush who were scared about terrorism.

[Beet]

LOL the gay marriage stuff was just an ex post facto story made up after the election. I literally didn't hear a single thing about same sex marriage during the campaign. On the other hand the entire Bush campaign was national security, swift boat, stay the course, yada yada, the whole RNC was 9/11 9/11 9/11, and even "reporting for duty" Kerry got the D nomination because of his medals.

[pops]

LOL the gay marriage stuff was just an ex post facto story made up after the election. I literally didn't hear a single thing about same sex marriage during the campaign. On the other hand the entire Bush campaign was national security, swift boat, stay the course, yada yada, the whole RNC was 9/11 9/11 9/11, and even "reporting for duty" Kerry got the D nomination because of his medals.

This. In fact, I'm pretty sure it was only brought up once during the 2000 general election debates (not even 2004!) and both Bush and Gore backed civil unions.

[Mr. Smith]

Terrorism by far

[brucejoel99]

Terrorism, easily

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

LOL the gay marriage stuff was just an ex post facto story made up after the election. I literally didn't hear a single thing about same sex marriage during the campaign. On the other hand the entire Bush campaign was national security, swift boat, stay the course, yada yada, the whole RNC was 9/11 9/11 9/11, and even "reporting for duty" Kerry got the D nomination because of his medals.

This. In fact, I'm pretty sure it was only brought up once during the 2000 general election debates (not even 2004!) and both Bush and Gore backed civil unions.

It was absolutely brought up during the debates, both Kerry and Edwards brought up Dick Cheney's lesbian daughter.

True, Bush announced his support for civil unions a week before the election I think. Rather weird that 8 years later Romney, who had a past history of being liberal on gay issues, refused to accept even civil unions.

[darklordoftech]

True, Bush announced his support for civil unions a week before the election I think. Rather weird that 8 years later Romney, who had a past history of being liberal on gay issues, refused to accept even civil unions.

9/11 gave Bush the political capital to say, "We're all Americans and we have to stick together to fight terrorism." Bush might have been trying to reach out to voters who weren't homophobic but were worried about terrorism while Romney was running in a year in which such voters were far less common. "We're fighting a war against theocracy" isn't believable if you're attacking gays at the same time. Also, the Tea Party expelled the "compassionate conservatives" from the GOP. Rove's "permanent GOP majority" was no longer on anyone's mind by 2012.

[UWS]

National Security/Terrorism/War by a lot.

George W. Bush was a war-time President and his handling of the War on Terror was strongly approved by the people. That's why he had a 90 % approval rating after 9/11.

John Kerry was labeled as weak on terrorism due to his anti-war record : he opposed the very weapons that won the Cold War and played a major role in the War on Terror (opposed the B-1 bomber, the B-2 bomber, the F-14A Tomcats, the F-14D, the Apache Helicopter, the F-15 Eagles, the Patriot Missile, the Aegis air-defense cruiser, the Strategic Defense Initiative and the Trident Missile). And also, John Kerry flip-flopped on the Iraq War as he once voted for the war before being against it.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Terrorism by far

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Anti-gay bigotry absolutely re-elected Bush. Bush won the election because of OH. OH had lost hundreds of thousands of jobs under Bush/Taft, but voted for Bush again because the anti-gay amendment brought out so many conservatives.

Nothing is more powerful to bring out conservatives than hating gays, it's why Hollings almost lost in 1992 despite winning landslides in 1980/1986, because Hartnett was whining about him co-sponsoring a bill in 1983 that would have outlawed ant-gay discrimination.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

So I looked up the start of the election night CNN broadcast and the channel had polled 3 top issues: 1) Iraq, 2) terrorism/national security, 3) the economy. Yes, they actually made a distinction between 1 and 2, the thinking being that if Iraq was on the minds of voters it would help Kerry vs national security helping Bush. They also showed the final stump speeches of the candidates with Kerry in Ohio talking about Saudi oil barons and making America be respected again in the world and Bush in New Mexico giving a line about needing a strong leader in times of war.

Gay marriage wasn't even mentioned by any pundit or anyone else.

[Dukakisite1988]

Bush underperformed expectations in Ohio in 2000, probably due to the DUI story that broke just days before. Some have cited his 2004 win in Ohio as being down to those values voters alienated by the DUI story coming back to him.

[Del Tachi]

So I looked up the start of the election night CNN broadcast and the channel had polled 3 top issues: 1) Iraq, 2) terrorism/national security, 3) the economy. Yes, they actually made a distinction between 1 and 2, the thinking being that if Iraq was on the minds of voters it would help Kerry vs national security helping Bush. They also showed the final stump speeches of the candidates with Kerry in Ohio talking about Saudi oil barons and making America be respected again in the world and Bush in New Mexico giving a line about needing a strong leader in times of war.

Gay marriage wasn't even mentioned by any pundit or anyone else.

Lol at the Republican campaigning in NM and the Democrat in OH on election day.

Political geography can change rather quickly.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

So I looked up the start of the election night CNN broadcast and the channel had polled 3 top issues: 1) Iraq, 2) terrorism/national security, 3) the economy. Yes, they actually made a distinction between 1 and 2, the thinking being that if Iraq was on the minds of voters it would help Kerry vs national security helping Bush. They also showed the final stump speeches of the candidates with Kerry in Ohio talking about Saudi oil barons and making America be respected again in the world and Bush in New Mexico giving a line about needing a strong leader in times of war.

Gay marriage wasn't even mentioned by any pundit or anyone else.

Lol at the Republican campaigning in NM and the Democrat in OH on election day.

Political geography can change rather quickly.

Kerry would have won OH in a 50-50 race that year. He lost OH by 2, while he lost nationally by 2.5.