Kentucky 2003

[Ryan]

I'm not predicting anything.

I think that the Dem vote in VA was depressed... you disagree.

We have to agree to disagree.

LOL what a nice neat conclusion!! Only thing is that if most of our discussion ended like that, there would be no point in joining them in the first place.

Realpolitik, I would be genuinely interested if you could post a summary of why you think Va. will vote Democrat in the 2004 elections. This is not a challenge, I personally, from all my research, see no way to arrive at the conclusion you did and I would be happy to be shown something I missed. I agree that in a near-landslide election it could vote democratic but in a reasonably close election with people voting they way they "usually" do, I just dont see this happening.

In case your Virginia theory is based on a gut feel then that fine. Really!!! I myself have many such theories though if I mention them on this forum I usually specify that I don't have conclusive evidence for it.
If THAT is the case the "agree to disagree" thingy works for me.

[Ryan]

LOL well I dont think the last two posts are necessarily contradictory.

Bush did win Va by 8% and several other states by not much more.
Does that mean that he could NEVER lose it?? Of course not; if unforeseeable events cause a near-landslide defeat it would be sure to go democratic.
Just like in the (comparatively) more likely event of a GOP landslide; Illinois and New Jersey would be among the states going GOP.

But in the case of a closely fought election similar to the 2000 race all of these states have factors, which make them near certain to remain in the column they are in now.

To restate it another way if the GOP loses Virginia in 2004 there is no way it could be a "close" race and Bush would have lost by a wide margin. Similarly if Illinois and New Jersey vote GOP then you can be sure the election was a GOP landslide. In a reasonably close race, which most of us expect, they will vote pretty much the same way as in 2000.  

[Ryan]

I'm expecting a close race in terms of the popular vote.
I'm not so sure about the EC though.

I think it will be close but not Bush/Gore close.

If close is around 10% margin then yes it will be close but just think of how many states were won in 2000 by margins of <10% or just above. That's what makes politics exciting It would be dreadfully bring if 40 states were likely to give one nominee or the other 20% margins.

In this case, My question would be, is there a realistic chance that in a reasonably close race, the democratic nominee can win Virginia. My answer is NO.

Btw since U just mentioned EC votes were you talking nation-wide?? In that case the race is bound to be close in terms of the popular vote. My read is that the nation is split 45-10-45 so the popular vote total will be close in any event.