Kentucky 2003

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A bit like WV in 2000?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Never piss off a miner

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually this brings up the fact that in several states in 2000 the Democrat vote was seriously understated because of Gore's baggage on various issues etc.
At the same time his vote may have been exaggerated in other states.
Off the top of my head:

Depressed Democrat vote:

West Virgina: Coal Mining, Gun control
Arkansas: Gore's attempts to distance himself from Clinton
Virgina: Tobacco, Coal Mining, Gun control
North Carolina: Tobacco, Gun control
Kentucky: Tobacco, Coal Mining, Gun control
Montana: Gun control

Depressed GOP vote:

New York: Bush's social conservatism
Connecticut: ditto
Arizona: The "McCain" effect

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know if the Democrat vote was depressed in Virginia...Gore actually didn't do that badly for a Democrat there (only lost by 8 points) and the shift toward the GOP from 1996 was less than the national average. Gore's vote may have been depressed in rural Virginia, but he did pretty well in the DC suburbs (just as he did in most other suburbs of large cities). In Connecticut, another factor was that Lieberman was on the Dem ticket as Gore's running mate.

It wasn't depressed as bad as in WV, but in district 9(a Democrat stronghold) Gore did terribly only winning 3 counties and a city.
A better preformance in the 9th could have carried the state.
But in the long run Virgina is swinging back towards the Dems anyway

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 2000 "election" was a paradox.

The most economically depressed areas trended Republican, while economically prosperous areas trended Democratic.

It made no sense whatsoever.

True... it was a weird election.

However if the mid terms are anything to go by, this has ceased to be the case.
And then there is the anti-incumbency factor at the moment...

The most economically depressed part of the US is the Upper South, and it should be fertile ground for the Dems in 2004(especially if the E.U retaliates in the Tarrif-War).

WV, NC, VA, AR, KY and TN could all be Dem gains in 2004.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As far as VA-9 goes, that was just Hyperbole to make a point

But I think that the Dems do have an excellent chance in VA next election... but it depends on the candidate.

In 2000 VA did not vote as solidly GOP as everyone thought it would, Bush's margin was under 10%

VA as a whole is (slowly) trending back towards the Dems, as is evidenced by them having a net gain in the State Assembly for the first time in about 30 years.

The Upper South as a whole looks promising for the Dems next election.
As long as they don't pick someone like Kerry...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not predicting anything.

I think that the Dem vote in VA was depressed... you disagree.

We have to agree to disagree.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MIGHT not will
VA could go either way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thing about VA is that it is very much divided between DC and Richmond suburbia... and inner city Richmond... and the poor, rural south of the state.

Which has the potential for a very unstable political balance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bush's margin over Gore in VA was only 8%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm expecting a close race in terms of the popular vote.
I'm not so sure about the EC though.