Winfield Scott 1848

[Sir Mohamed]

What if Winfield Scott had been the Whig nominee instead of Zach Taylor in 1848? Does he win?

[brucejoel99]

Taylor disliked Scott so much that if Scott won the nomination, then Taylor might very well have ran as an independent, which would help assure a Cass victory by splitting the Whig vote.

"Taylor's personal animosity toward Scott was widely known among Whig leaders, and many dismissed as fantasy the assumption that Scott would inherit Taylor's support. No nomination, they argued accurately, was more likely to spur a vengeful Taylor into an independent candidacy than that of Scott, and if Taylor remained in the race, realistic Whigs understood, the Whigs could not win."

If we somehow end up w/ President Scott, however, then he'd likely lose support from northern Whigs, considering he'd likely support compromise.

[UnselfconsciousTeff]

Taylor disliked Scott so much that if Scott won the nomination, then Taylor might very well have ran as an independent, which would help assure a Cass victory by splitting the Whig vote.

"Taylor's personal animosity toward Scott was widely known among Whig leaders, and many dismissed as fantasy the assumption that Scott would inherit Taylor's support. No nomination, they argued accurately, was more likely to spur a vengeful Taylor into an independent candidacy than that of Scott, and if Taylor remained in the race, realistic Whigs understood, the Whigs could not win."

If we somehow end up w/ President Scott, however, then he'd likely lose support from northern Whigs, considering he'd likely support compromise.

Nah not a Cass win since you know Martin van Buren was also a candidate so it would be a 4 way race

[brucejoel99]

Taylor disliked Scott so much that if Scott won the nomination, then Taylor might very well have ran as an independent, which would help assure a Cass victory by splitting the Whig vote.

"Taylor's personal animosity toward Scott was widely known among Whig leaders, and many dismissed as fantasy the assumption that Scott would inherit Taylor's support. No nomination, they argued accurately, was more likely to spur a vengeful Taylor into an independent candidacy than that of Scott, and if Taylor remained in the race, realistic Whigs understood, the Whigs could not win."

If we somehow end up w/ President Scott, however, then he'd likely lose support from northern Whigs, considering he'd likely support compromise.

Nah not a Cass win since you know Martin van Buren was also a candidate so it would be a 4 way race

Presuming Cass & Van Buren get the same amount of votes they get IOTL, & an independent Taylor candidacy manages to get half of the vote he got IOTL, w/ the other half going for the Whigs (Scott), then Cass wins 236-54 for Van Buren, w/ neither Scott nor Taylor getting any EV's due to the split Whig vote despite each finishing more than 13 points ahead of Van Buren in the popular vote.

Sen. Lewis Cass (D-MI)/Former Rep. William O. Butler (D-KY) - 236 EV, 42.49% PV
Former Pres. Martin Van Buren (FS-NY)/Former State Sen. Charles Francis Adams (R-MA) - 54 EV, 10.12% PV
Gen. Winfield Scott (W-VA)/Comptroller Millard Fillmore (W-NY) - 0 EV, 23.64% PV
Gen. Zachary Taylor (I-LA)/Sen. John J. Crittenden (I-KY) - 0 EV, 23.64% PV

Obviously the final result wouldn't necessarily end up this way, considering how different people might've voted had it been a 4-way race, but Cass most definitely gains the greatest advantage from such a 4-way race.