Will India Have a Fully Developed Economy by 2050?

[Frodo]

And I mean on par with that of Japan, western Europe, Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), and the United States.  The general consensus according to what I have been reading is 'yes', at least based on current (or higher) growth rates, and if they invest wisely in their future, i.e. improving education, health care, infrastructure, etc.  

[Frodo]

You all should check this report out -it's called, 'The World in 2050'.  Call it an informed guess of where we would be by mid-century.

Worth noting that they are projecting that India's GDP ranking will be behind China but ahead that of the United States.   

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With four times out population, you'd expect India to have a larger GDP anyway.  But no, it won't be fully developed by then. It likely will be ahead of where China is now by then, but India has too many rural poor to become fully developed in a mere three decades.

[Tintrlvr]

Absolutely not. India might be approaching where China is now by 2050, or at least China about 10 years ago, but it won't be anything close to the current developed economies. China will have a fully developed economy by then, though (at least in line with, say, South Korea or France).

[brucejoel99]

With four times out population, you'd expect India to have a larger GDP anyway.  But no, it won't be fully developed by then. It likely will be ahead of where China is now by then, but India has too many rural poor to become fully developed in a mere three decades.

This.

[RFayette]

With four times out population, you'd expect India to have a larger GDP anyway.  But no, it won't be fully developed by then. It likely will be ahead of where China is now by then, but India has too many rural poor to become fully developed in a mere three decades.

This.  There while be ever increasing areas of India with high levels of wealth per capita, but the poorer areas have a long way to go as things stand now.

[Del Tachi]

Just read the methodology.  Their long-term growth model assumes that the shares of national income going towards capital and labor investment are constant as GDP increases.  We shouldn't expect this to be the case, as each successive dollar an Indian or Nigerian earns is more likely to be spent on Big Macs or Levi's than productive assets, job searching, or educational attainment than the previous one.  These GDP estimates may be extremely upwardly-biased for developing countries.

Also, their model doesn't control for the possible negative GDP consequences of climate change or armed conflict, which are definitely more potent in the developing world. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes and I would say possibly higher than China by then as well. The reason is I do not believe the Chinese current economic model is anyway sustainable in the long run and I believe by the 2040s at the latest China will go down a more similar path to where Japan went in the 1990s.

That does not mean it will be the number one economic power in the world as I believe the US will still be the economic superpower of the world in the 2050s.


Also this doesnt mean its economy will be the 2nd best in the world , just 2nd biggest (Like China now).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With four times out population, you'd expect India to have a larger GDP anyway.  But no, it won't be fully developed by then. It likely will be ahead of where China is now by then, but India has too many rural poor to become fully developed in a mere three decades.

This.

This is true, but I think America's population is going to soar in the 200s/30s/40s with immigration comfortably above 2 million per year. I think similar trends will be implemented as the developed world ages, Sub-Saharan Africa in particular reaches unsustainable levels of population, a new wave of neoliberal, globalist world leaders take power (Macron is just a hint of what's to come), and China's wealthy and middle class move to places with better qualities of life.

If I had to project I'd say in 2050, population/GDP (PPP, 2018 $)/ GDP per capita would look like this.

Big four:
1. China: 1,245 million people; $62 trillion; $49,799/person
3. European Union (incl. UK); 580 million people; $41 trillion; $70,690/person
2. United States: 455 million people; $38 trillion; $83,516/person
4. India: 1,585 million people; $37 trillion; $23,344/person

Next tier:
5. Japan: 145 million people; $10 trillion; $68,966/person
5. Brazil: 255 million people; $10 trillion; $39,216/person
7. Indonesia: 305 million people; $8 trillion; 26,230/person
8. Mexico: 170 million people; $7 trillion; $41,176/person
9. Nigeria: 355 million people; $6 trillion; $16,901/person
10. Russia: 130 million people; $5 trillion; $38,462/person
10. Pakistan: 280 million people; $5 trillion; $17,857/person

The next few:
12. Turkey
13. Bangladesh
14. Phillippines
15. South Korea
16. Canada
17. Australia
18. Saudi Arabia
19. Iran
20. Egypt

[Frodo]

So now that he has won his second term with an increased majority in the Lok Sabha, here are the seven items identified by this Indian think tank that Modi must attend to if he wants to launch India on a sustained path of economic reform and accelerated economic growth:

1. Agricultural reforms

2. Infrastructure reforms

3. Land reforms

4. Labour reforms

5. GST 2.0

6. Direct taxes reforms

7. Financial sector reforms

[Frodo]

So one key step for India to become a developed economy is to develop its manufacturing sector (or redevelop, if we count the period before British colonization).  With China faltering, this should be India's golden opportunity to claim the mantle as 'the world's factory':

India's economic reforms will help boost potential growth beyond 6%: Goldman Sachs
Govt policy of absorbing food price shocks and providing counter cyclical stimulus should continue next year with the general election coming up in 2024, the brokerage said.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

People underestimate how hard it is to turn a third world country into a fully-developed superpower in three decades. There are so many individual issues, and even undisputed successes (like Modi's sanitation efforts) are only small pieces of the puzzle. That said, with India being a more concentrated country and with the generally amazing work ethic of its inhabitants I can see it being past China by then.

But no, it won't be able to reach US let alone Europe tier living standards for decades.

[TDAS04]

Probably not, and I doubt China will either.  I think the US will still be the largest economy.

Having said that, India should be much more important then than it is now.