Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

And FPÖ has been set back for a few years (though I'm sure they'll slowly creep their way up again, there's no stopping these forces long-term it seems).

That's very likely. Now, they will make a deep cut and get rid of the Straches and they already announced stricter compliance rules (similar to companies), so that expenses will not become a problem for them anymore in the future. A task force will be created, headed by the popular and only FPÖ-mayor of a big city.

They will be associated with the Ibiza-scandal for another few years, but I could see the FPÖ being at 20%+ again by the end of this new term ... if they are in opposition and not in another ÖVP-FPÖ government.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

could Strache form his own party?

[Tender Branson]

could Strache form his own party?

Yes.

[mileslunn]

My guess is OVP-FPO is not first choice, but may end up happening due to inability to form any other coalition.  For OVP-Greens, that would be interesting but with strong differences between the two, not sure how feasible and also usually progressive parties that are junior partners with right wing ones tend to take a hit in the following election thus why Greens may be wary.  OVP-SPO may work mathematically but I think SPO would be better to remain in opposition and focus on re-building.  In neighbouring Germany, grand coalition has destroyed SPD so I think mindful of that, they will want to avoid that problem.  Nonetheless I think Greens would probably like this as much like Germany, might allow them to displace SPO as main progressive alternative.

Another possibility, but not sure how common this is in Austria is a form a minority government and govern on an issue by issue basis.  That would seem the best, but again does this ever happen in Austria.  At least on any given issue, Kurz has three separate parties he can turn to giving him flexibility.

[Tender Branson]

This is hilarious:

https://burgenland.orf.at/stories/3015683

The Eisenstadt voting commission received a postal ballot in a plastic bag with the address of the local hospital on it.

The voting commission members were sceptical and called the hospital.

They said that the postal ballot is from a patient in their quarantine ward, who asked a nurse to put it in a plastic bag and send it in.

The voting commission then had to decide what is more important: open the ballot, or destroy it and not count it.

They decided to destroy the ballot, because the possibility of a mass infection outweighed voting rights ...

[Tender Branson]

I just noticed something very interesting:

My district (Zell am See) was the only one among 116 where ÖVP-FPÖ increased their share compared with 2017.

The ÖVP gained 12%, the FPÖ lost 11.8%

In all other 115 districts, the FPÖ lost more than the ÖVP gained.

[Tender Branson]

I just noticed something very interesting:

My district (Zell am See) was the only one among 116 where ÖVP-FPÖ increased their share compared with 2017.

The ÖVP gained 12%, the FPÖ lost 11.8%

In all other 115 districts, the FPÖ lost more than the ÖVP gained.

By looking at all 116 districts, I also noticed that in the rural counties the FPÖ losses were mostly absorbed by the rising ÖVP. In the suburban districts, the ÖVP gained ca. half of what the FPÖ lost. And in many urban districts, the ÖVP gained almost nothing while the FPÖ lost 5-10%. In some Vienna districts, both ÖVP & FPÖ lost compared with 2017.

A map would be cool.

[Tender Branson]

All votes (incl. all postal/absentee votes) are now counted:

https://wahl19.bmi.gv.at/index.html

[Oryxslayer]

All votes (incl. all postal/absentee votes) are now counted:

https://wahl19.bmi.gv.at/index.html

Greens got 0.1%, but beyond that these last 40K mail ballots didn't adjust anything.

[Tender Branson]

All votes (incl. all postal/absentee votes) are now counted:

https://wahl19.bmi.gv.at/index.html

Greens got 0.1%, but beyond that these last 40K mail ballots didn't adjust anything.

Yeah.

But the Greens managed to overtake the FPÖ in Tyrol with this final batch ... by 80 votes.

The Greens are now 2nd in Tyrol and the FPÖ 3rd.

[jimrtex]

Nice visualisation of how seat allocation works in Austria:

https://vis.strategieanalysen.at/mandate/

How are the individual MPs determined.

First by regional electoral district, then by state, then the rest via the federal election list.

There are 49 lists (39 RED, 9 statem and one federal)? Is there any sort of residency requirement for candidates? (practical or legal) May/must candidates appear on three lists, assuming that the party is contesting the election nationally?

Are the lists closed or open?

What strategies do parties employ in constructing their lists?

One slide showed the number of mandates per constituency was based on the 2011 Census, but would be somewhat different based on 2019 population. What was used for this election? Since Austria no longer has a census, can these numbers be adjusted annually?

Austria still has a 10-year census, the last one in 2011 and the next in 2021. Why did you assume we have no census anymore ? It's just a register-based census, not a traditional one like in the US. The seats of each R.E.D. are determined by the citizen population of the Census result in 2011. This is not updated each year. The next determination will come in 2021. The slide just used a 2019 projection, based on the latest annual numbers.

I thought you had said that that Austria no longer has a census. Why wait 10 years between censuses? Couldn't the register be used to produce a result annually?

What is the mathematical method for apportioning mandates? Is this done nationally, or by state, then by constituency?

No, it's the other way around (see above). The vast majority of seats (more than 100 out of 183 are first determined by the R.E.D. results, then state, then federal.

I was asking a different question. Lower Austria has 37 mandates, and Lower Austria East has 4 mandates. Presumably they have approximately 37/183 and 4/183 of the total citizen population. How is the rounding done? Why not simply use the actual ratio (e.g. 37.183)?

Weinviertel was shown as gaining two mandates (from 5 to 7) based on 2019. Is this suburban growth? Are the boundaries of Vienna more or less permanent? Since Vienna North would have also gained a mandate, and Vienna Inner West would lose one, would this reflect northward growth in the city? Why is this so?

Correct. The seats are apportioned by citizenship (unlike in the US, where the whole population is used). Citizens are moving out of Vienna and into the suburbs. Vienna is only growing heavily because of non-citizens moving in. But there are some districts in Vienna, where citizens are also moving to, especially in the North.

The results show an area in the south of Vienna dominated by SPO. So presumably lower class,and perhaps increasingly foreign-born? There are also areas to the northeast, but they are broken up, so presumably the Danube has broken up settlement patterns, or perhaps there were/are large areas of public housing? The FPO has a somewhat similar pattern, so more working class at least in Vienna.

The Greens are spread out to the west northwest. Is this a University of Vienna effect, students, professors, and those who were educated and stuck around after graduating or not?

The OVP appear to be dispersed, except a concentrate in the vert center city. Only OVP voters can afford to live there, so an owner class?

Is it feasible/practicable to commute to Vienna on a daily basis from Czechia, Slovakia, or Hungary?

It is possible, but takes 2-3 hours and 2-3 hours back a day. The only interesting commute is between Vienna and Bratislava.

It appears that there is pretty frequent service via Flixbus from Bratislava to Vienna

If a party is only contesting select states, and wins a mandate (likely at the state level) is that seat then excluded from the national allocation?

This would depend on the specifics of the result, but as I have said above the first allocation is at the R.E.D. level.

At the RED level, a party would have to meet the state quota, so effectively there is a large thershold (the smallest is for Graz und Umbgebung, which has 9 mandates, and an effective threshold in 2017 of 11.3%).

Is there a threshold at the state level?

But let's assume that a party did elect a member at the state level, and they were not a national party. If the national allocation was carried out to 183 seats, their national allocation would be zero, so this would create an overhang. So would they instead allocate 182 seats nationally?

[Tender Branson]

Final results:



Historical results:



Despite their scandals, the FPÖ-base has strengthened a lot since the 1980s: from around 5%, to 10% in 2002 and now 16%.

The only party that has a constant downward trend is the SPÖ.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

what's that I'm doing this dumb proportional s**t again?

OVP: 68 seats (-3)
SPO: 39 seats (-1)
FPO: 29 seats (-2)
Grune: 25 seats (-1)
NEOS: 15 seats (+/- 0)
JETZT: 4 seats (+4)
KPO+: 1 seat (+1)
WANDL: 1 seat (+1)


(if you included Blank votes as a party they'd have 2 seats, but I just gave those seats to the parties with the highest remainder, which were JETZT [remainder 0.36 quotas] and the SPO [remainder 0.35 quotas]. FPO [remainder 0.31 quotas] missed out on the last seat by 1,101 votes.)

OVP+Grune would have a narrow majority at 93/183 seats.

[Tender Branson]

You only assigned 182 instead of 183 seats.

I guess the ÖVP would get the additional one.

[jimrtex]

You only assigned 182 instead of 183 seats.

I guess the ÖVP would get the additional one.

If the 4% threshold were eliminated, then under D'Hondt,

JETZT would get 3, and KPO 1, at the expense of OVP 2, SPO 1, and FPO 1.

If Sainte-Lague were used, in addition to the above, WANDL would gain a seat at the expense of the Greens.

If the 4% threshold were maintained, then in this case, Sainte-Lague and D'Hondt would produce the same result. Arguably, Sainte-Lague is better for proportionality; though D'Hondt might be more consistent with the allocation at the RED and state level, where a whole quota is demanded.

[jimrtex]

Final results:



Historical results:



Despite their scandals, the FPÖ-base has strengthened a lot since the 1980s: from around 5%, to 10% in 2002 and now 16%.

The only party that has a constant downward trend is the SPÖ.

Why did OVP change color in 2017?

[jimrtex]

The number of RED-level seats declined from 99 to 79, mainly due to the decline in SPO and FPO support which pushed them below gaining a mandate except in larger RED or where they had exceptional support.

OVP 38 to 48
SPO 32 to 16
FPO 29 to 10
NEOS 0 to 0
Greens - to 5
JETZT 0 to -

This was largely compensated at the state level. as just-misses at the RED-level (70%-99% of the state-level quota) coalesced in additional seats.

OVP 16 to 15
SPO 13 to 19
FPO 13 to 16
NEOS 5 to 10
Greens - to 17
JETZT 5 to -

Total 52 to 77

At the federal level there was a decline, likely due to the Greens narrowly missing the threshold in 2017, and the missed seats being assigned to other parties.

OVP 8 to 8
SPO 7 to 5
FPO 9 to 5
NEOS 5 to 5
Greens - to 4
JETZT 3 to -

Total 32 to 27.

Question:

Will the shift from RED to State level election have much overall effect on Parliament? Or are the state-level members from SPO and FPO pretty much the same as if they had been elected at the RED level.

[Tender Branson]

Why did OVP change color in 2017?

Because Kurz wanted to re-brand the party. The Kurz-ÖVP at the federal level uses turquoise, while most state ÖVP's still use black (combined with yellow).

[Tender Branson]

Question:

Will the shift from RED to State level election have much overall effect on Parliament? Or are the state-level members from SPO and FPO pretty much the same as if they had been elected at the RED level.

Elected candidates from the regional electoral district level usually are political newcomers with only local political experience. That is good for the composition and rejuvenation of the future legislature. Candidates elected from the state level have more experience and those from the federal lists usually are the ones with the most political experience (party leaders, current or former MPs, union leaders, NGO members etc.)

[Tender Branson]

Preliminary* share of female MPs in the new parliament:

58% Greens (15)
48% SPÖ (19)
40% NEOS (6)
40% ÖVP (28)
16% FPÖ (5)

40% Total (73/183)

The current, outgoing parliament has 37% (68/183) female MPs.

* some elected candidates could still relinquish the chance to be seated.

What a shame that in an election in 2019, it's still not possible to have 52% women in parliament ... (especially the right-wing parties are to blame).

[Tender Branson]

Julia Herr, the leader of the left-extremist SJ/Young Socialists (the youth organisation of the SPÖ) and Austrian counterpart to the German Kevin Kühnert (JUSOS), has been elected to parliament.



© Herr's Facebook page

Frau Herr is an arch-left radical, who wants to nationalize banks, companies and the real-estate market and who wants to "move beyond capitalism".

The SPÖ needs a revolution to stop their slide in the polls and at elections, but I'm not sure people like her(r) are the answer ...

[mileslunn]

Julia Herr, the leader of the left-extremist SJ/Young Socialists (the youth organisation of the SPÖ) and Austrian counterpart to the German Kevin Kühnert (JUSOS), has been elected to parliament.



© Herr's Facebook page

Frau Herr is an arch-left radical, who wants to nationalize banks, companies and the real-estate market and who wants to "move beyond capitalism".

The SPÖ needs a revolution to stop their slide in the polls and at elections, but I'm not sure people like her(r) are the answer ...

So the AOC of Austria or perhaps Jeremy Corbyn of Austria?  She sounds a little too far to the left if you ask me.  Although couldn't SPO and Greens merge perhaps for a stronger left as it seems not just in Austria but most Western countries, blue collar workers are ditching traditional social democratic parties, while it is more your urban younger voters even those with above average incomes who are embracing left of centre parties.

[Tender Branson]

Julia Herr, the leader of the left-extremist SJ/Young Socialists (the youth organisation of the SPÖ) and Austrian counterpart to the German Kevin Kühnert (JUSOS), has been elected to parliament.



© Herr's Facebook page

Frau Herr is an arch-left radical, who wants to nationalize banks, companies and the real-estate market and who wants to "move beyond capitalism".

The SPÖ needs a revolution to stop their slide in the polls and at elections, but I'm not sure people like her(r) are the answer ...

So the AOC of Austria or perhaps Jeremy Corbyn of Austria?  She sounds a little too far to the left if you ask me.  Although couldn't SPO and Greens merge perhaps for a stronger left as it seems not just in Austria but most Western countries, blue collar workers are ditching traditional social democratic parties, while it is more your urban younger voters even those with above average incomes who are embracing left of centre parties.

The center-left wouldn't be stronger though: everything the Greens gain, would be lost by the SPÖ in turn. Just like with ÖVP-FPÖ, what the ÖVP gains is lost by the FPÖ. You would have two 37% parties then with ÖVP and SPÖ+Greens+Pilz and you could only create a rightwing government or a grand coalition of ÖVP+merged Left.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian GDP will grow by 1.6% this year and 1.4% next year - according to new forecasts by the main domestic economic institutes (WIFO/IHS) today. That is much better than Germany this year (0.4%) or Italy (recessionist).

Unemployment will remain at 4.4% and there will be a budget surplus of 0.6% this year and 0.4% next year. Inflation is low at 1.6% and debt as a percentage of GDP will decline from 69% to 65% next year (down from the all-time-high of 87% in 2016).

65% debt would be back to pre-financial-crisis-levels (2007).

https://orf.at/stories/3139702

[Tender Branson]

Cool maps, but NEOS is only ca. 50/50 Right vs. Left