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December 06, 2019, 04:07:28 pm
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  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Tegridy Farms)
  Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Sept. 29 federal election ?
#1
VP
 
#2
SP
 
#3
FP
 
#4
NEOS
 
#5
NOW
 
#6
Greens
 
#7
KP
 
#8
Change
 
#9
A regional party
 
#10
Invalid/Blank
 
#11
I wouldn't vote
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 110

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)  (Read 67791 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1275 on: October 06, 2019, 11:14:46 pm »


They are pretty mixed.

But they will shift along with what Kurz proposes. If Kurz says he wants VP-Greens, voters will follow suit.

Question for everyone, is Austria 2019 the best Green performance in any top-level national parliamentary election anywhere?

Ie excluding presidential elections (eg VdB) and also Euro-elections.

I think the only other countries in contention might be Germany and Australia?

Thanks

In Luxemburg, the Greens got 15.1% last year.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #1276 on: October 07, 2019, 07:56:38 am »

So VP in Ost-tyrol were dead souls. Despite giving huge numbers for the party, they did not get a seat in parliament.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1277 on: October 07, 2019, 08:10:46 am »



Okay so here is that OVP/FPO change map, per Tender's suggestion the FLO are also in there for the 2017 data since their positions were similar. It's a suggestion I agree with. With it's addition though there is nowhere that gained votes on 2017, everywhere lost, its's just a matter of if you lost  more or less than the  nation. The same places highlighted on the  previous map right-trend map show up here, just they require a bit more  explanation since NEOS  is no longer here to recapture votes.

The two types of places that show up the strongest on the red  side of the spectrum are FPO surge zones and Green surge zones. The former sees large losses in Carinthia and Upper Austria, regions where the FPO vote preferred to stay home or cast alternative ballots rather than migrate to the  OVP. The latter results in every urban area coming up in red, since  here the FPO->OVP voters easily get overwhelmed by the OVP->Greens/NEOS voters, and NEOS no longer can pick up the slack. Perhaps the most interesting thing is Voralberg has some of the strongest trends against the Right anywhere - probably because there are a lot of OVP->Greens voters here naturally and very few FPO voters initially. It's also interesting that the two places the OVP/FPO lost votes the  least in Vienna are some of the most SPO/Green in the city and country, probably a case of approaching the vote floor.

Votes were retained best in rural areas where the OVP would expect to be one of the dominant parties: Salzburg, Tyrol, and the rural bits of Lower Austria. Perhaps the most interesting bit here is Burgenland, a old SPO  region that saw a FPO surge in 2017 - the right retained most of those votes in 2019.



Also, do note that the boundaries around Vienna are not how they should be. GADM, the global GIS map site, still had Greater Vienna as a district and I had to merge it into the one that made the most sense - Tulln. This is the first map where the other two 'bits' of the old Greater Vienna actually stand out from their surroundings and this disclaimer has to be issued.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1278 on: October 07, 2019, 10:43:02 am »

Awesome !

Thanks for creating this rightwing (VP+FP+ 2017 FL) trend map. I already suspected that with the inclusion of FL in 2017, my district (Zell am See) would not have the only swing towards the Right among the 116 districts that I mentioned before.

Now, all 116 districts swung "left". But my district and Southern Salzburg as well as Tyrol and the Waldviertel had the smallest swings to the Left, because the large VP gains largely made up for all the FP losses.

The trend map also looks like one would expect from a random US state: urban/suburban areas trended left, while most rural areas trended right.

So VP in Ost-tyrol were dead souls. Despite giving huge numbers for the party, they did not get a seat in parliament.

That's correct election-wise. East Tyrol delivered strongly for the VP, but is also by far the smallest regional electoral district, meaning there's no direct seat for the VP out of there.

On the other hand, it is likely that Margarete Schrambck will become a cabinet member again in the new coalition and if she does, her seat will become vacant and the next on the list (someone from East Tyrol in this case) will enter parliament to replace her.

https://www.dolomitenstadt.at/2019/09/29/osttirol-jubel-bei-der-oevp-und-eine-koalitionsansage
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1279 on: October 07, 2019, 11:00:07 am »


Kurz to meet SP/FP tomorrow and Greens/NEOS on Wednesday.

https://orf.at/stories/3139981
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #1280 on: October 07, 2019, 11:53:19 am »

So, the East Tyrolians did not simply use preference vote in order to get representation.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1281 on: October 07, 2019, 12:48:39 pm »

So, the East Tyrolians did not simply use preference vote in order to get representation.

The vast majority of voters do not care about preference votes.

They are only voting for a party and dont mind who is representing them.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1282 on: October 07, 2019, 01:00:49 pm »

The FP has just voted to deny Philippa Strache a seat in parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kein-nationalrats-mandat-fuer-philippa-strache/400640495

In recent days, more and more important people in the FP said they wanted a complete reset for the party and thats only possible without the Straches.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1283 on: October 07, 2019, 01:06:15 pm »


I also like the fact that Vorarlberg in the West had one of the biggest Left trends, while just over the state border in Tyrol ... the district Landeck had one of the two strongest rightwing trends in the country.
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Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
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« Reply #1284 on: October 07, 2019, 03:19:22 pm »

The FP has just voted to deny Philippa Strache a seat in parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kein-nationalrats-mandat-fuer-philippa-strache/400640495

In recent days, more and more important people in the FP said they wanted a complete reset for the party and thats only possible without the Straches.
The fact that the Straches were still a thing after this massive scandal is quite telling,...
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Keep Calm and ...
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« Reply #1285 on: October 08, 2019, 07:58:39 am »

The FP has just voted to deny Philippa Strache a seat in parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kein-nationalrats-mandat-fuer-philippa-strache/400640495

In recent days, more and more important people in the FP said they wanted a complete reset for the party and thats only possible without the Straches.


It seems to be very complicated.

https://orf.at/stories/3140140/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1286 on: October 08, 2019, 12:55:03 pm »

The FP has just voted to deny Philippa Strache a seat in parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kein-nationalrats-mandat-fuer-philippa-strache/400640495

In recent days, more and more important people in the FP said they wanted a complete reset for the party and thats only possible without the Straches.


It seems to be very complicated.

https://orf.at/stories/3140140/

No matter if she gets her seat or not (the Vienna state election commission will probably decide tomorrow), about 5% of voters would definitely back a new HC Strache List and another 11% would probably vote for it.

https://www.heute.at/s/bis-zu-16-prozent-wurden-wieder-strache-wahlen-43730975
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Cranberry
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« Reply #1287 on: October 08, 2019, 01:59:18 pm »

Decided to look at some city results, first up: the hometown, Innsbruck.



The maps look more VP-heavy than the actual results would suggest, seeing as postal ballots are obviously not counted at the precinct level. The city's electoral geography is pretty self-explationary from the results I'd say - university and the old city core full of student appartements in the center, working class districts and high-rises to the east, mostly single-family homes and small appartment blocs to the west. North and south of the valley, above the city, are village-type, extremely expensive inner suburbs (Hungerburg/Arzl to the north and Vill/Igls to the south, easily apparent by the elevated VP/Neos score).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1288 on: October 09, 2019, 10:34:47 am »

The FP has just voted to deny Philippa Strache a seat in parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kein-nationalrats-mandat-fuer-philippa-strache/400640495

In recent days, more and more important people in the FP said they wanted a complete reset for the party and thats only possible without the Straches.


It seems to be very complicated.

https://orf.at/stories/3140140/

The Vienna election commission has dealt a blow to the FP and awarded the seat to Philippa Strache today, after consulting the federal election commission and Interior Ministry. The FP's actions to strip her from her seat was not allowed under Austrian election law (something that H.C. Strache also said was not legal in a Facebook post).

There are now 2 options for Philippa Strache:

A) she can take the seat, but will not become a member of the FP parliamentary group, because they don't want her and she will be expelled - becoming an Independent MP.

B) she refuses to take the seat and the next on the list will replace her.

https://orf.at/stories/3140287/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1289 on: October 09, 2019, 10:40:06 am »

Yesterday, SP's Hermione Granger and FP's Norbert Hofer talked with Sebastian Kurz (VP), each for one hour.

During these first exploration talks, both told Kurz their demands and Rendi-Wagner said that the climate between Kurz and her was pretty good.

Hofer told Kurz that "he has a lot of things to fix in his party right now" and told him that he still prepares the FP for opposition. But, if all coalition talks with other parties fail, then the FP could vote again on further talks.

The talks with NEOS today lasted more than 2 hours, with NEOS-leader Meinl-Reisinger deploying a lot of demands to Kurz.

The talk between Kurz and Kogler (Greens) has just started ...
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1290 on: October 09, 2019, 11:30:23 am »

So VP in Ost-tyrol were dead souls. Despite giving huge numbers for the party, they did not get a seat in parliament.
There is a bias against smaller constituencies.

To win a regional seat, a party in Tyrol has to receive 1/15 of the total Tirol vote. Since East Tyrol has about 1/15 of the state electorate, this means a party would need almost all the votes in the region (it turns out 92.6%).

Number of mandates: Number of regions: elected/total mandates; relative elected.

1 mandate: 1 region: 0/1; 0%
2 mandates: 1 region: 0/2; 0%
3 mandates: 9 regions: 4/27; 15%
4 mandates: 9 regions: 13/36; 36%
5 mandates: 7 regions: 16/35: 46%
6 mandates: 6 regions: 19/36: 53%
7 mandates: 3 regions: 12/21: 57%
8 mandates: 2 regions: 8/16: 50%
9 mandates: 1 regions: 5/9: 55%

With the continued decline of SPO, the collapse of FPO, and rebound of Greens, fewer regional mandates were elected (declining from 99 to 79). Splitting the vote four ways, or five if we include NEOS and minor parties, means many won't be elected unless there is a large number of mandates (6 or more). Even OVP may not be able to secure two mandates.
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #1291 on: October 09, 2019, 01:58:21 pm »


lmao Cheesy
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1292 on: October 09, 2019, 10:19:57 pm »

All 4 exploration talks with Kurz are now over and all except the FP are ready to go into deep coalition talks.

Kurz will either announce another round of exploration talks or his partner(s) of choice for the coalition talks soon.
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🅰 🦀 @k 🎂
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« Reply #1293 on: October 10, 2019, 09:08:32 am »

Whatever happened to FPO's desire to bring Swiss style direct democracy to the country btw?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1294 on: October 10, 2019, 11:11:10 am »

Whatever happened to FPO's desire to bring Swiss style direct democracy to the country btw?

Was planned for 2022, under the old government.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1295 on: October 10, 2019, 11:30:55 am »

SP & Greens killed the constitutional deficit and debt brake today in the second chamber of parliament - the Bundesrat.

23 (SP+Greens) voted against, 38 (62%) in favour (VP+FP).

In the Nationalrat, 68% voted in favour (VP+FP+NEOS).

https://orf.at/#/stories/3140397/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1296 on: October 10, 2019, 11:42:33 am »


There are certain similarities between them ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1297 on: October 10, 2019, 11:51:24 am »

The FP has officially abandoned the coalition talks today, saying they got internal things to fix and that their election result is no mandate from voters to govern again.

https://orf.at/stories/3140382/
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1298 on: October 10, 2019, 09:08:54 pm »

Kurz has scheduled another round of exploration talks with SP, Greens and NEOS for next Wednesday, this time with complete negotiation teams from each party.

The Kurier reports that the trend is definitely in favour of VP-Greens, based on insider information from party officials.

The SP is still officially in the talks, but the mood inside the party is leaning more towards opposition.

And NEOS is not even needed as a coalition partner, plus Kurz is unlikely to take them in as a 3rd partner, because of their strong demands on several issues.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nach-der-ersten-runde-nur-noch-eineinhalb-optionen-fuer-kurz/400643630
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1299 on: October 10, 2019, 10:16:25 pm »

Kurz has scheduled another round of exploration talks with SP, Greens and NEOS for next Wednesday, this time with complete negotiation teams from each party.

The Kurier reports that the trend is definitely in favour of VP-Greens, based on insider information from party officials.

The SP is still officially in the talks, but the mood inside the party is leaning more towards opposition.

And NEOS is not even needed as a coalition partner, plus Kurz is unlikely to take them in as a 3rd partner, because of their strong demands on several issues.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nach-der-ersten-runde-nur-noch-eineinhalb-optionen-fuer-kurz/400643630

Well Kurz realistically would need one of the big oppositions to bend for each issue on a vote by vote basis - unless of course the upcoming state elections are beneficial to both the OVP and greens, which result in seat turnarounds.
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