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  Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Sept. 29 federal election ?
#1
VP
 
#2
SP
 
#3
FP
 
#4
NEOS
 
#5
NOW
 
#6
Greens
 
#7
KP
 
#8
Change
 
#9
A regional party
 
#10
Invalid/Blank
 
#11
I wouldn't vote
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 110

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)  (Read 70366 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1300 on: October 10, 2019, 10:30:37 pm »

Kurz has scheduled another round of exploration talks with SP, Greens and NEOS for next Wednesday, this time with complete negotiation teams from each party.

The Kurier reports that the trend is definitely in favour of VP-Greens, based on insider information from party officials.

The SP is still officially in the talks, but the mood inside the party is leaning more towards opposition.

And NEOS is not even needed as a coalition partner, plus Kurz is unlikely to take them in as a 3rd partner, because of their strong demands on several issues.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nach-der-ersten-runde-nur-noch-eineinhalb-optionen-fuer-kurz/400643630

Well Kurz realistically would need one of the big oppositions to bend for each issue on a vote by vote basis - unless of course the upcoming state elections are beneficial to both the OVP and Greens, which result in seat turnarounds.

Yeah, I posted earlier that while VP-Greens would have a small majority in the Nationalrat - they only have a 22+2/61 minority in the Bundesrat, representing the states.

Thats why Kurz will always need the support of either SP or FP for constitutional laws to become law (not for regular laws though, which are not impacting the states. For these laws, the Bundesrat only serves as a rubberstamp).

The coming state elections wont change a lot in the composition of the Bundesrat:

In Vorarlberg, the Greens could steal the FP seat (but only if they overtake them and the VP does not pass 50%).

In Styria, the VP and Greens could gain a federal Bundesrat seat each, SP+FP losing one each.

In the small Burgenland election in January, no seats will change.

That means VP+Greens would improve their situation in the Bundesrat by a net 3 seats until January, when they need a net gain of 7 for a majority in the chamber ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1301 on: October 11, 2019, 12:03:08 am »

The Vorarlberg state election is coming up on Sunday.

The state has a strong historical VP-lean and that is likely to continue on Sunday with gains, because the state party is much more moderate and consensual than the polarizing Kurz-VP on social/foreigner/asylum topics.

The 2014 results were like this:



There's limited polling, but it is expected that the VP will get 45-50% - maybe even an absolute majority, depending on how well NEOS and the small, fringe parties without a chance do. 48-49% would be enough for such an absolute majority, but the state VP has a history of still picking a coalition partner despite getting an absolute majority in earlier elections.

The current government is VP-Greens and is seen as highly successful in the state. While the Greens had a very good result in 2014, it's not impossible that they can get it again (the List Pilz is not on the ballot).

NEOS is the big unknown, could get anywhere between 6% and 13%.

The SP has a new, younger leader and might improve a bit - to reach double-digits again (LOL).

The FP is expected to drop by a lot, following national trends. A result between 12-16% is likely, but they will not drop below 10% - because Vorarlberg is very export-oriented and has a big manufacturing/production sector.

There are also 7 smaller, meaningless parties running, none of them with a chance to pass the threshold. The biggest potential probably has HaK (a migrant, better said ... Turkish list).

Only 270.000 voters are eligible to vote (it is the 2nd smallest state).

Polls will close at 1pm (yes, that's right).
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1302 on: October 11, 2019, 05:55:25 am »

what are the strong NEOS demands?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1303 on: October 11, 2019, 07:56:03 am »

For reference, the Greens came in second in voralberg during the national election, it's why the region zoomed to the left on all my maps. However, the Green vote came from OVP-Green type voters, who probably want to cast OVP ballots this weekend. So second place, and with it a seat in the upper chamber, may be a tossup.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1304 on: October 11, 2019, 08:51:07 am »

35.000 postal ballots were requested ahead of the Vorarlberg election.

Thats up 38% compared with the 2014 state election, but down 20% compared with the federal elections two weeks ago.

Looks like turnout will be around 60%-ish, maybe a bit more. They always have the lowest turnout, together with Tyrol and Vienna.

https://presse.vorarlberg.at/land/dist/vlk-60246.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1305 on: October 11, 2019, 08:59:08 am »


Among the important ones (red lines !) she told Kurz, were:

# NEOS would not be part of a government that puts any human rights in question or violates them

# full transparency in politics and political donations (those are particularly tough demands for the shady (corrupt ?) Kurz VP, because they would have to dissolve their dark money channels via secret constructs involving banks (Raiffeisen), big companies and wealthy donors.

# a comprehensive education reform, with more autonomy for headmasters and teachers

# a tax reform/tax cut for employers and employees

# pension reform automatism (something the VP opposes). NEOS has called the VP to the left of the Swedish Social Democrats on this issue ...

# a comprehensive climate protection bill, which would include a carbon tax (which the VP opposes -> no new tax burdens for working people.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109686628/meinl-reisinger-legte-kurz-ihre-roten-linien-dar
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1306 on: October 11, 2019, 10:37:59 pm »

Wednesday will be important:

# the federal election commission will publish the certified results of the federal election results and the candidates who will get a seat in the new Nationalrat, which will convene on October 23. Here is the new Green parliament group for example:


Source: Greens - Twitter

# also, Philippa Strache has to decide by Wednesday if she will take her seat or not. Former party leader H.C. Strache is very active on his (personal) Facebook page right now, demanding his former party to accept her in their group. The FP is strongly opposed and wants to get rid of any connections with the Straches. Philippa could still accept her seat, become a more or less meaningless, powerless independent MP, cash in 9.000 for 5 years and be a thorn in the flesh for the FP. H.C. Strache has recently also given hints he might create his own party to oppose the FP in the Vienna state election next year. But for this, he would need some people willing to finance it and there are still the legal challenges about the Ibiza video awaiting him in court.

# the in-depth exploration talks headed by the VP will continue.

Also: both SP and FP have decided in meetings to start a renewal process, which will start right away. The FP will have 2 task forces and present first results in December, the SP next April.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1307 on: October 12, 2019, 02:51:24 am »

Monthly "Profil" magazine poll (Oct. 7-11, aged 16+, n=807, phone+online, MoE = +/- 3.5%):

37% VP
20% SP
17% FP
15% Greens
  9% NEOS
  2% Others

Chancellor vote:

39% Kurz (VP)
12% Hofer (FP)
11% Rendi-Wagner (SP)
  8% Kogler (Greens)
  6% Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)

Also:

60% of Austrians want a new government until Christmas, 22% wouldn't mind if it takes longer than that.

66% of Austrians now favour a total ban on private handgun ownership.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-mehrheit-regierung-weihnachten-11168447
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Cranberry
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« Reply #1308 on: October 12, 2019, 11:34:00 am »

Next up city map, Graz - the second biggest city with a population of around 300.000. Similar to Innsbruck very much a university city, where Greens finished a narrow second behind the ÖVP, and SPÖ/FPÖ far behind.



The main dividing line in the city, the river Mur, should be apparent at first glance - the eastern side with the old city core is the traditionally bourgeois, upscale bank; while the working class quarters are situated on the western side. The second main division, as usual in Austria, plays out between city core and inner suburbs, housing the university (in Geidorf, the northernmost of the Green districts) and thus many students and younger people, on the one hand; and outer suburbs and residential / industrial areas on the other. ÖVP is thus strongest in suburban, hillside Waltendorf; Greens in the student quarter St. Leonhard, SPÖ in immigrant-heavy Lend, just across the river from the city core; FPÖ in residential Puntigam, home to one of the country's largest breweries and a Puch factory (as well as the working class football club Sturm Graz); and finally Neos in Innere Stadt, the medieval city core.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1309 on: October 13, 2019, 02:51:32 am »

Vorarlberg state election today.

Polls close in 3 hours already.

"Big" questions:

* Will the VP get an absolute majority ?
* Can the Greens improve on their good 2014 result of 17% ?
* Will the FP collapse of -10% continue ?
* Can the SP reach double-digits again ?
* Will NEOS pass 10%, or overtake the SP, like they did 2 weeks ago ?
* Who will be the strongest small party ?
* Will turnout drop below 60% ?
* Will VP-Greens continue ?

https://www.vol.at/specials/landtagswahl

Results:

http://apps.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/wahl/LT?id=LT_2019-10-13
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1310 on: October 13, 2019, 06:11:08 am »

The polls in Vorarlberg have closed and some small towns are already counted.

Trends: Heavy FP losses, gains for all other parties.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1311 on: October 13, 2019, 06:32:39 am »

The polls in Vorarlberg have closed and some small towns are already counted.

Trends: Heavy FP losses, gains for all other parties.

If the trends keep up, the FP will drop from 23-24% to 12%.
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OldEurope
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« Reply #1312 on: October 13, 2019, 07:11:09 am »

Exit Poll

SORA / ORF

VP: 43.8% (+2.0), 17 seats(+1)
GRNE: 18.9% (+1.Cool, 7 (+1)
FP: 16.1% (-7.3), 6 (-3)
SP: 9.1% (+0.3), 3 (+-0)
NEOS: 8.6% (+1.7), 3 (+1)
others: 3.5% (+1.5)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1313 on: October 13, 2019, 07:33:10 am »

Its not an exit poll, but a projection.

The FP is too high in this one, they will get less than 15% ... and the Greens 20%.
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OldEurope
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« Reply #1314 on: October 13, 2019, 07:35:39 am »

FP: 15% in the second "Hochrechnung" by SORA/ORF
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1315 on: October 13, 2019, 08:57:13 am »

The FP drops to 14% in the updated projection:

https://orf.at/wahl/#/projection

Which means they would lose 4 of their 9 seats in the state parliament, while VP/Greens/SP/NEOS gain one each.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1316 on: October 13, 2019, 08:59:57 am »

I would say OVP+NEOS  is the likely govt here at first glance, but realistically anyone who desires power could work with the Voralberg OVP. Greens will gain a seat in the upper house.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1317 on: October 13, 2019, 09:06:44 am »

Today is the worst FP result in a federal/EU/statewide election in 6.5 years.

The last time the FP got less was in early 2013 during the Tyrol state election with 9.3%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1318 on: October 13, 2019, 09:23:17 am »

I would say OVP+NEOS  is the likely govt here at first glance, but realistically anyone who desires power could work with the Voralberg OVP. Greens will gain a seat in the upper house.

A continuation of Black-Green is most likely, because VP-Governor Markus Wallner already said he prefers that option.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1319 on: October 13, 2019, 10:01:14 am »

Among the small parties, the Turkish list HaK and XI (never heard) are strongest with 1.5% each.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1320 on: October 13, 2019, 10:09:13 am »

Only 2 major cities left: the capital Bregenz and Feldkirch.

They should keep the FP below 14%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1321 on: October 13, 2019, 11:10:24 am »

Final results from Vorarlberg (except a few thousand absentee ballots that were cast in other precincts than the own and which will be counted on Tuesday):

http://apps.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/wahl/LT?id=LT_2019-10-13
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1322 on: October 13, 2019, 11:17:27 am »

Final results from Vorarlberg (except a few thousand absentee ballots that were cast in other precincts than the own and which will be counted on Tuesday):

http://apps.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/wahl/LT?id=LT_2019-10-13

Clickable maps:

https://visualhosting.apa.at/3oiusd09/election/index.map.city.html?apaview=election:80000

Click on Hochburg ("stronghold") > select a party.

https://at.staticfiles.at/snippets/interaktiv/2019/10-ltw-v/map.html?2230812dd6ae4fd4fb08
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1323 on: October 14, 2019, 09:42:18 am »

The Greens have presented their new parliamentary group today to the public, in their first common work meeting:


They said that out of the 26, more than 25% have a migrant background.

15 are women (+1 female Pirate on a Green ticket is missing in the picture).

Half are under the age of 40.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1324 on: October 14, 2019, 10:06:18 am »

Greens will gain a seat in the upper house.

This is correct.

In the Bundesrat, the VP now has 22, the SP 21, the FP 15 and the Greens 3 seats.

VP+Greens would need 31/61 seats to have their own majority there as well. That's a net gain of 6 over the next year.

In the Styria state election next month, VP and Greens could net one seat each from the FP and SP. Giving them 27.

If the Burgenland state election in January turns out to be a total catastrophe for the SP (like on the federal level), the VP would net another seat. But that's very unlikely, as the Burgenland SP in state elections should easily keep the VP behind.

Still, let's assume a debacle and VP-Greens have 28/61 seats in January.

Then it would come down to the important Vienna state election next year. If the VP can replicate their good results from the federal election there as well (pretty unlikely), they would net 2 seats. And if the Greens are also getting 20-25%, they could also net one.

Bringing them to 31 seats. But that's a lot of ifs ...
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