Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Only 26 precincts in Graz left.

That was really a quick count !

Only 1 hour after polls closed everything is counted.

[Keep Calm and ...]

It’s pretty clear right now that the Greens will end up winning the capital Graz ...

Graz results:
ÖVP > Greens 24.822 vs. 24.373
but this is without Wahlkarten

[Keep Calm and ...]

SORA predicts that the Greens winning Graz

https://twitter.com/sora_institut/status/1198647083282128896

[Tender Branson]

So, Graz voted like West-Berlin, if state elections were held there right now:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin/west.htm

[Tender Branson]

The bad state election results today for the SPÖ and FPÖ in Styria also have significant consequences in the Austrian Bundesrat (the 2nd parliamentary chamber, representing the states):

https://orf.at/stories/3145340

As of now, Styria had 9/61 seats there (3x ÖVP, 3x SPÖ, 3x FPÖ). This will now change to 4x ÖVP, 2x SPÖ, 2x FPÖ and 1x Greens).

As a result, the SPÖ will lose it's 1/3 blocking minority in the Bundesrat, which allowed them to block constitutional laws impacting the states passed by ÖVP-FPÖ on their own.

[Tender Branson]

All early+precinct votes are counted. Postal ballots will be counted tomorrow.

Here is the final SORA/ORF projection (incl. a postal ballot estimate):



Here is the final ARGE/ATV projection (incl. a postal ballot estimate):

[Tender Branson]

The maps:

Styria (by town)

Graz (capital city, by precinct)

Wahlsieger = winning party

Hochburgen = party strength (select party)

[Tender Branson]

Vote by age:

https://twitter.com/wahlen_at/status/1198680246825947137

[Tender Branson]

Vote by highest education: university degree

https://twitter.com/wahlen_at/status/1198683967500832768

[Tender Branson]

The strong KP result always amazes me ...

They are doing so much right in Graz and Styria that the SP is doing wrong.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Graz final results:
ÖVP: 25,4 %, 29.522 votes > GRÜNE: 25,2 %, 29.373 votes

https://www.graz.at/cms/beitrag/10340983/8106610/Graz_Ergebnis_der_Landtagswahl_am_November.html

[Tender Branson]

All postal ballots are counted in Styria and the Greens did not win Graz !

The ÖVP did better with postal ballots than expected and the Greens worse, which means the ÖVP ended up 149 votes ahead of the Greens.

Final result:

36.0% ÖVP (+7.6%)
23.0% SPÖ (-6.3%)
17.5% FPÖ (-9.3%)
12.1% Greens (+5.4%)
  6.0% KPÖ (+1.8%)
  5.4% NEOS (+2.7%)

Turnout: 63.5% (-4.4%)

Seats:

18 ÖVP (+4)
12 SPÖ (-3)
  8 FPÖ (-6)
  6 Greens (+3)
  2 NEOS (+2)
  2 KPÖ (n.c.)

[Tender Branson]

Styrian Pete Buttigieg has resigned today after the massive loss of his party yesterday ...

https://orf.at/stories/3145378/

Pete Buttigieg is apparently the SPÖ frontrunner in the Nov. 24 state election in Styria:

https://twitter.com/spoestmk/status/1192792143129128961
"Vote for the Future on Nov. 24 - # Shift Change."

[Tender Branson]

All 3 elections this year (federal, state and EU) have seen very close races in Graz, with the Greens and ÖVP within 1% and both above 25%.

Yet the ÖVP always managed to come out slightly ahead of the Greens ...

In 2013 though, the Greens were the biggest party in Graz during the federal election - but only with 22%.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is in crisis-mode:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000111504705/die-kritik-an-rendi-wagner-wird-lauter-doch-alternativen-sind

The party is losing election after election, Rendi-Wagner isn't taken serious within the party and is constantly criticized, the mood among the base sucks and the party is heavily indebted (many aides working for the party will be fired in the next days) ...

[Tender Branson]

Some analysis of the Styria state election:

The fact that the ÖVP and Greens won big is not all that surprising (Kurz/Kogler national effect).

More interesting were 2 facts: A) that the FPÖ ended up with a surprisingly high 17.5% despite all their mega-scandals over the past half year. And B) that the Communists did so well and increased their result from 4% to 6%.

Styria of course (together with Carinthia) are the FPÖ's best states in Austrian elections, but that wasn't always the case: in 1990s and the 2000s state elections, the FPÖ didn't pass 15% really and remained around 10-12%. That changed after 2015 when 1 million Arabs/Africans streamed in from the South (Slovenia).

Take a look of this municipal results map of who came in 2nd yesterday:

https://orf.at/wahl/steiermark19/choropleth/second

In Southern Styria (the corridor between the capital Graz and Maribor in Slovenia), the FPÖ still gets 25-30% of the votes (40% after 2015). The ÖVP is still stronger there and won virtually all towns, except the one of the FPÖ-leader.

The FPÖ is also quite strong there, because Graz hosts many car-parts factories for Magna, BMW etc. for export accross Europe. Blue collar workers yesterday still voted FPÖ with 40%.

In northern Styria (another rural area like the South, just mountainous and not flat) the FPÖ did much worse and only received 10-15%, except for a few towns like Schladming or Rottenmann, where they got 25-30%.

Schladming and Rottenmann can be explained with the hospital/healthcare reform debate: Up in rural Styria, ÖVP-SPÖ wanted to kill several small rural hospitals and create one mega hospital. This didn't go well with the rurals, who feared about declining services and long drives of 50km to the mega health center. That's why the FPÖ and even the KPÖ got a lot of protest votes. The Communists got some 10-15% in those rural areas, which is a big outlier in the Austrian political landscape.

The North is also home to mining and steel industry, areas where the SPÖ still does well - but where it is also declining. Their losses there were much lower though (3-5%) compared with the urban Graz, where the Reds were destroyed. They lost 10-15% to the Greens and KPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

While the SPÖ is in chaos and everyone is blaming everyone for the loss, the FPÖ has identified a single scapegoat for their loss yesterday: Strache.

https://orf.at/stories/3145436

Former party leader Strache is currently "suspended" from the FPÖ, which means he's still a member of the party - but his status is "inactive".

More and more people in the FPÖ are now calling for a total expulsion from the FPÖ ...

[DL]

If I'm not mistaken Styria is the only province in Austria where the KPO has seats. Could this be the start of them becoming some Austrian equivalent of the Linke party and eventually getting seats in the nationalrat?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If I'm not mistaken Styria is the only province in Austria where the KPO has seats. Could this be the start of them becoming some Austrian equivalent of the Linke party and eventually getting seats in the nationalrat?

I hope so, i really admire them.

Also, why were the Young Greens expelled from the Greens and now part of KPO?

[Tender Branson]

If I'm not mistaken Styria is the only province in Austria where the KPO has seats. Could this be the start of them becoming some Austrian equivalent of the Linke party and eventually getting seats in the nationalrat?

I hope so, i really admire them.

Also, why were the Young Greens expelled from the Greens and now part of KPO?

A) this is not happening. The KPÖ is only a Styrian phenomenon and even there only in state and local elections.

B) the Young Greens were expelled from the mother party in 2017 before the federal election because the Greens were a mess back then and they supported a rogue list in the university elections. But meanwhile the Greens have Young Greens again. Just different ones.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is firing more than 25% of their party workforce and aides by Dec. 31 right after Christmas.

They also have 15 million € in debt.

The SPÖs vice general secretary also quit today out of solidarity with the party workers/aides.

https://orf.at/stories/3145499

This will go really well with the voters ... firing people during the Christmas holidays.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The SPÖ is firing more than 25% of their party workforce and aides by Dec. 31 right after Christmas.

They also have 15 million € in debt.

The SPÖs vice general secretary also quit today out of solidarity with the party workers/aides.

https://orf.at/stories/3145499

This will go really well with the voters ... firing people during the Christmas holidays.

I believe KPO will grow. The PVDA-PTB were also a local phenomen in Belgium, until they grew election after election and are now a major player in Wallonia.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is firing more than 25% of their party workforce and aides by Dec. 31 right after Christmas.

They also have 15 million € in debt.

The SPÖs vice general secretary also quit today out of solidarity with the party workers/aides.

https://orf.at/stories/3145499

This will go really well with the voters ... firing people during the Christmas holidays.

I believe KPO will grow. The PVDA-PTB were also a local phenomen in Belgium, until they grew election after election and are now a major player in Wallonia.

Belgium ≠ Austria

The KPÖ fell from 0.8% to 0.7% between the 2017 and 2019 federal elections, despite the SPÖ collapsing.

It’s really just a Styrian state/local election thing.

[President Johnson]

The SPÖ is firing more than 25% of their party workforce and aides by Dec. 31 right after Christmas.

They also have 15 million € in debt.

The SPÖs vice general secretary also quit today out of solidarity with the party workers/aides.

https://orf.at/stories/3145499

This will go really well with the voters ... firing people during the Christmas holidays.

What a mess. Will the SPÖ follow the SPD's downfall? It's sad how social democratic parties are in decline almost everywhere.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The SPÖ is firing more than 25% of their party workforce and aides by Dec. 31 right after Christmas.

They also have 15 million € in debt.

The SPÖs vice general secretary also quit today out of solidarity with the party workers/aides.

https://orf.at/stories/3145499

This will go really well with the voters ... firing people during the Christmas holidays.

What a mess. Will the SPÖ follow the SPD's downfall? It's sad how social democratic parties are in decline almost everywhere.

What do they have to offer?
Their handling of crime and immigration leaves questions over to interpretation
they're not left-wing enough and too liberal to actually represent working class people
they're not right-wing enough to win back voters who are concerned about economy and balanced budgets

We need a renewed democratic left with tough immigration stances and with progressive, socialist and environmental policies. They're bleeding to the far-right because of immigration, crime and naive proposals. They need to pretend that they care over us, that they represent poorer classes. What they need is several rounds of opposition, rebuilding, fresh faces and a strong message for the country and the working class. Returning to their roots pre-1980's.