Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

What SPO needs to do is move left on all issues, except social issues, immigration and crime. The social liberals needs to be expelled and go into NEOS or whatever or start their own social liberal party. And than possibly form a coalition with other left-wing or anti-immigration parties, and oppose neoliberalism for once and for all. They'll take a ton of voters back from FPO and OVP, i swear. Currently OVP has a charismatic young leader who shifted to the right, so it will be hard to win votes back, as good times arise for OVP. But SPO needs to re-invent themselves. There are other parties that will cover the pro-EU, pro-immigration, pro-liberal side like Green. Green can even afford to move a bit to the right to cover the vacuum of social liberals, while the KPO needs to present themselves as a valuable working class alternative who's also pro-immigration but staunchly anti-capitalism, and aiming for Vienna and Styria elections and put all their resources there. Aim for the youth. Be harshly pro-environmental and take inspiration from other far-left parties in Europe, like my party or French and Spanish parties and Corbyn's party.

OVP moved a bit to the right which was exactly what they had to do, keep their traditional base but win some voters BACK from FPO (which was done due to Kurz's popularity and the FPO scandal), the FPO needs to move left a bit and present themselves as a democratic party, expel corrupt and controversial politicians. NEOS probably has two choices, jump into the social liberal vacuum if social democrat parties finally understand what they have to do, or jump in the conservative liberal vacuum, trying to win votes back from OVP which is now very hard to do but what they have to do if they grow and if SPO keeps positioning them as well.

And Peter Pilz needs to become part of a far-left coalition between JETZT and KPO.

[Oryxslayer]

The SPÖ is firing more than 25% of their party workforce and aides by Dec. 31 right after Christmas.

They also have 15 million € in debt.

The SPÖs vice general secretary also quit today out of solidarity with the party workers/aides.

https://orf.at/stories/3145499

This will go really well with the voters ... firing people during the Christmas holidays.

What a mess. Will the SPÖ follow the SPD's downfall? It's sad how social democratic parties are in decline almost everywhere.

I'm going to ignore the ideological opinion of Laki above me, and just say Wow. The situation for the SPO seems tailor made for an old Social Democratic party to survive. The Tripartite system balances voters effectively between all three camps, they have sat in opposition for a good period and attacked the other two camps, and have a the Viennese anchor to keep the foundation solid. I guess there's no way to avoid this problem when the base is more pensioner then worker these days. Unlike the SPD, the SPO still has blood in their veins and if they get a good infusion the party can easily evolve for all the strengths I listed above. But, they won't be forming any Left govts anytime soon, that ship I suspect has sailed.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The SPÖ is firing more than 25% of their party workforce and aides by Dec. 31 right after Christmas.

They also have 15 million € in debt.

The SPÖs vice general secretary also quit today out of solidarity with the party workers/aides.

https://orf.at/stories/3145499

This will go really well with the voters ... firing people during the Christmas holidays.

What a mess. Will the SPÖ follow the SPD's downfall? It's sad how social democratic parties are in decline almost everywhere.

I'm going to ignore the ideological opinion of Laki above me, and just say Wow.

Be a bit more respectful. You'll see in 20 years from now, that something will change, because the far-right isn't going to win 40% of the vote in Europe, social democratic parties are not doomed to be extinct, but if they continue to be like naive as this and trust on a base full of pensioners and social liberals, they're going to be extinct, but Greens are eating them right now, both in Germany and Austria and almost everywhere else in Europe, except for those exceptions. They're bleeding on all sides, their left (Green), the liberal side (Neos), the center (OVP) and the anti-immigration left-wingers (FPO). One left-wing party needs to become tough on immigration, like Barack Obama was tough, but he didn't tell anyone. Because the left is never going to win 50% if they all stay pro-immigration and naive.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

And also, immigration is a huge problem and threat. In Belgium i've talked with multiple people, and i'm sure 75% has a more right-wing opinion on immigration than me. You have a huge problem if only 2% of the 18-29 year olds support you, while almost all of your support is from life-long voters, immigrants and pensioners. In Belgium, the conservative nationalists and the far-right party could have had a monopoly in Flanders, while in 2003 the social democrats were almost the biggest, while winning hugely in Wallonia.

I'm just concerned about the left's demise, and no... i'm not a social democrat but they are a natural ally of us, and more importantly were freedom fighters a long time back, but their neoliberal and pro-immigration policies have hurt them a lot. I want a left that's on our side, that opposes the neoliberal establishment and evolves into a more outspoken opinion on immigration that isn't plain naive, because we have problems with immigration. It's as simple as it is. In Belgium, they had to clean the entire party with new fresh faces, because the older ones were compared with oyster, wine and caviar socialists, and you heard only about them in a number of corruption scandals, mostly against the working class, like that huge homelessness scandal were funds for homelessness care institutions went more to the socialists their pockets theirselves than to the ones who need it.

[Oryxslayer]

My point wasn't aimed at you, it was confronting the point in general. But since you took it up, I will leave the fact that migrants, at least in Vienna, voted overwhelmingly for the SPO/Greens. It's this vote that makes Vienna a reliable anchor for the SPO to hold down the conservatism of the rest of the country.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My point wasn't aimed at you, it was confronting the point in general. But since you took it up, I will leave the fact that migrants, at least in Vienna, voted overwhelmingly for the SPO/Greens. It's this vote that makes Vienna a reliable anchor for the SPO to hold down the conservatism of the rest of the country.

Not 50% of the country are immigrants, immigrants will start their own party like they've done in the Netherlands and tried to do in Belgium (Democratic Socialist Appel, DENK, ISLAM (which is pro-sharia party which hold seats in some Brussels periphere city councils), Be.one, MRP (Multicultural Right's Party) and the right-wing VMC (Flemish Multicultural Collective)

And if 50% of immigrants were to win this country, than our culture & tradition is gone. Also the other leftist parties, you say yourselves Green / SPO is going to pick up the immigrants, and we don't need to go far-right on immigration, just center-right to right-wing with a tough immigration policy, but correctly done.

And yes i feel threatened by the immigrant parties, especially parties like VMC and ISLAM. A pro-sharia law party should be banned, period.

[Tender Branson]

What the SPÖ first and foremost needs to do to win again is to dissolve and start from scratch.

They need to throw out their complete national leadership, except Ludwig in Vienna, Doskozil in Burgenland and Kaiser in Carinthia, get a new leader with a strong working class connection and hire the ÖVPs campaign and social media team ...

[Oryxslayer]

Remember Austria has a rather high 4% threshold. This keeps localist parties like the KPO, pushback parties like Beer, and targeted parties like Muslim parties from emerging federally. Same in Germany, only the 5% threshold is even stricter.

[Tender Branson]

The modern-day SPÖs or SPDs will never return to old strength.

They have lost 15% or more to the FPÖ or AfD for good. That train has long left the station, their supporters are so die-hard and anti-Social(ist) and conspiracy theorist that nobody can win them back.

It’s also historical: in the 60s and 70s, the 2-party system dominated everyday life down to the municipal level. If you wanted a building license, it was good when you had a black or red party book (membership). The same if you wanted a job. During those decades, party people were present everywhere, the on-the-ground connection with voters/workers was easy and effective.

Nowadays with the internet, people are aware of every single small scandal popping up. People believe every idiotic conspiracy theory (Greta Thunberg is a time traveler !) and then vote FPÖ ...

[bigic]

Not just FPO or AFD. The voters also go to the Greens and other parties.

[Pick Up the Phone]

And also, immigration is a huge problem and threat.

Well, that might be your opinion but it's hardly a universal truth. There are enough people (like me) who think that immigration is not only a demographic necessity but also a great chance for European societies. Regardless of whether you call such an opinion "naive" or not.

In Belgium i've talked with multiple people, and i'm sure 75% has a more right-wing opinion on immigration than me.

Anecdotal evidence is... well anecdotal evidence. Not more. I work in academia and there are quite a few social democrats I know (also in related fields: teachers, civil servants, social workers...). Basically all of them are in favor of much more liberal immigration policies and a handful even support open borders without any sort of restriction. Might be that there is just a huge difference between Belgium and Switzerland or, more likely, between different population segments. I only know what these people would say if the SP were to employ strict anti-immigration policies. "Unsolidaristic", "grotesque", and "shameful" would be the friendliest expressions.

You have a huge problem if only 2% of the 18-29 year olds support you, while almost all of your support is from life-long voters, immigrants and pensioners.

Do you now refer to Belgium or Austria? If Belgium, do you have any source for this number (which seems unrealistically low). If Austria, you're probably mistaken: 14% of the 18-29 age group voted for the SPÖ and 27% for the GRÜNEN in the last election. Which tells us a few things:

1. The SPÖ is on its way of becoming a party for the elderly (pensioners etc.). Not the worst thing in a rapidly aging society. Consequently, it should focus on satisfying this clientele (which will soon include many aging migrants).
2. Young voters (18-29) support the pro-immigration center-left parties (SPÖ + GRÜNE) to a higher degree (41% + 8% NEOS) than the two older voter segments (30-59: 34% + 9% NEOS; 60+: 36% + 6% NEOS). Especially the extremely high voting share of the GRÜNEN indicates that the youth in Austria is much more migration-friendly than you might be inclined to believe.
3. You also forget that many long-term voters of the SPÖ are immigrants and their descendants, often of Turkish or Balkan origin. In major cities like Vienna they constitute one of the most reliable and powerful voting blocs. And you think that the SPÖ should sacrifice them for no other reason than the mere assumption that a (largely imaginary - it's not the 1970s anymore) working class demands their heads? Sorry to disappoint you, but today's immigrants ARE the working class.

I'm just concerned about the left's demise, and no... i'm not a social democrat but they are a natural ally of us, and more importantly were freedom fighters a long time back, but their neoliberal and pro-immigration policies have hurt them a lot. I want a left that's on our side, that opposes the neoliberal establishment and evolves into a more outspoken opinion on immigration that isn't plain naive, because we have problems with immigration. It's as simple as it is.

"Freedom fighters" and "tough migration policies" in the same sentence - sounds like a contradiction. What you demand is not freedom but the protection of privileges. And this is something where many, if not most, left-wingers simply disagree with you. We want a left that cares more about actual human beings than about the struggle against whatever "the neoliberal establishment" means.

[Pick Up the Phone]

They have lost 15% or more to the FPÖ or AfD for good. That train has long left the station, their supporters are so die-hard and anti-Social(ist) and conspiracy theorist that nobody can win them back.

Indeed, it's a more or less pointless endeavor. Many of these people resemble members of a cult and once they have been infected by the dangerous virus that is right-wing populism, they buy into every conspiracy theory. Chemtails, Eurabia, George Soros, Great Replacement...

They will never voter for any Altpartei again. So the best thing is that they don't vote at all. This is also the lesson of the recent state elections in Eastern Germany.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

All good and well, but how will the left ever come back to power than?

[Omega21]

They have lost 15% or more to the FPÖ or AfD for good. That train has long left the station, their supporters are so die-hard and anti-Social(ist) and conspiracy theorist that nobody can win them back.

Indeed, it's a more or less pointless endeavor. Many of these people resemble members of a cult and once they have been infected by the dangerous virus that is right-wing populism, they buy into every conspiracy theory. Chemtails, Eurabia, George Soros, Great Replacement...

They will never voter for any Altpartei again. So the best thing is that they don't vote at all. This is also the lesson of the recent state elections in Eastern Germany.

What the hell are you talking about?

People being concerned about 1000+ sexual assaults across Germany on a single night is not a conspiracy theory. These are undeniable, Police supplied facts.

Granted, Germany has NO normal right-wing party, so these people get painted as neo-Nazis if they vote AfD, because it's basically the only party against illegal immigration.

If you had a normal party standing up to illegal immigration, without the edgy Holocaust talk/xenophobia/cult of personality Björn does, a lot of people vote for that party instead.

As someone who describes himself as Right-Wing, I have no issue saying the AfD is a steaming pile of hot crap, which is only breeding more and more Björn type of people. The only way to keep them from growing is to form a real, normal right-wing Party, like the current ÖVP under Kurz.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Not 50% of the country are immigrants, immigrants will start their own party like they've done in the Netherlands and tried to do in Belgium (Democratic Socialist Appel, DENK, ISLAM (which is pro-sharia party which hold seats in some Brussels periphere city councils), Be.one, MRP (Multicultural Right's Party) and the right-wing VMC (Flemish Multicultural Collective)

And if 50% of immigrants were to win this country, than our culture & tradition is gone. Also the other leftist parties, you say yourselves Green / SPO is going to pick up the immigrants, and we don't need to go far-right on immigration, just center-right to right-wing with a tough immigration policy, but correctly done.

And yes i feel threatened by the immigrant parties, especially parties like VMC and ISLAM. A pro-sharia law party should be banned, period.

Belgium is Belgium, the Netherlands are the Netherlands, and Austria is Austria. Neither are these countries similar nor is there necessarily a similarity between the political behavior of their migrant populations. Apart from this, there are no generic "migrants" in the first place but rather dozens of different groups and communities. The old right-wing equation MIGRANTS = MUSLIMS = PRO-SHARIA is intellectually very dishonest.

In general, people start new parties if they don't feel adequately represented by the existing ones anymore. Nothing is wrong with that; it's one of the core principles of an open and pluralist democratic society. Previous parties were founded as institutional agents of a specific class (Social Democracy), religion (Christian Democracy), or political agenda (Greens) - migrants have every right to do the same based on some form of collective identity. If such a party happens to support sharia law, well, then it's the business of the courts to decide whether this must be tolerated or not. But a society in which racism, xenophobia, and islamophobia are common shouldn't expect a too narrow interpretation of free speech here.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Indeed, it's a more or less pointless endeavor. Many of these people resemble members of a cult and once they have been infected by the dangerous virus that is right-wing populism, they buy into every conspiracy theory. Chemtails, Eurabia, George Soros, Great Replacement...

They will never voter for any Altpartei again. So the best thing is that they don't vote at all. This is also the lesson of the recent state elections in Eastern Germany.

What the hell are you talking about?

People being concerned about 1000+ sexual assaults across Germany on a single night is not a conspiracy theory. These are undeniable, Police supplied facts.

Granted, Germany has NO normal right-wing party, so these people get painted as neo-Nazis if they vote AfD, because it's basically the only party against illegal immigration.

If you had a normal party standing up to illegal immigration, without the edgy Holocaust talk/xenophobia/cult of personality Björn does, a lot of people vote for that party instead.

As someone who describes himself as Right-Wing, I have no issue saying the AfD is a steaming pile of hot crap, which is only breeding more and more Björn type of people. The only way to keep them from growing is to form a real, normal right-wing Party, like the current ÖVP under Kurz.

Well, I talk about two points: (1) Voters of right-wing populist parties are less likely to switch to other parties than voters of center-right or center-left parties. They're much more consistent if you want to express it in a positive way. (2) In the state election in Eastern Germany, there was a direct correlation between an increased turnout rate and the strong results of the AfD. Their most important group were, in fact, not former CDU voters but former non-voters and the politically apathetic.

It seems to me that neither of these points is too controversial.

Now, when it comes to the alleged "1000+" sexual assaults, you're apparently wrong in three ways. First, you claim that the "1000+" relates to sexual assaults only. However, this was rather the total number of occurrences reported to the police. More than half of them involved no sexual component at all but cases of theft and petty crime. Secondly, there is no proof that all of these crimes were actually committed. Or do we suddenly live in a system in which one is presumed guilty until proven innocent? Thirdly, those actually convicted were not exclusively migrants but included quite a few Germans(!) as well. The entire event had far less to do with migration than with toxic masculinity.

By the way: the AfD is "not the only party against illegal immigration". All parties in the Bundestag are against illegal immigration (with the possible exception of the LINKE, at least if we make a judgement on the basis of party platforms). Also, refugees and asylum seekers are not illegal immigrants per se.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

They have lost 15% or more to the FPÖ or AfD for good. That train has long left the station, their supporters are so die-hard and anti-Social(ist) and conspiracy theorist that nobody can win them back.

That's not true, or do you think 15% is anti-socialist, die hard AfD'er and conspiracy theorists? Like Omega21 said, the only thing that keeps them from growing is to moderate their stances and expel people like Bjorn out of their party.

[PSOL]

The problems facing immigrants and their descendants in Europe are wholly based on the tightening economic conditions of Europe at large. The age in which economic prosperity flourished after the Marshall Plan and a strengthening welfare state are gone or being dismantled with austerity. Coupled with the ghettoization of areas where a high number of immigrant communities live and a lack of connections for jobs, as people noted literally above with the red or black membership, it’s no wonder that many migrants are facing the brunt of this economic stagnation while being exploited in this age of austerity.

I suggest Europe now vote for parties willing to stop austerity and the waste of money on bombing a random country for the United States, you know, what caused this crisis in the first place. So vote for those who don’t do the bidding of this awful NATO system and that instead spends your tax dollars on building a more equitable and prosperous society, like the PVDA or KPÖ+. Voting for closet austerity “populists” and fascists ain’t gonna fix Europe now.

[Tender Branson]

There’s some hope for the SPÖ:

They shouldn’t do nearly as bad in the January Burgenland state election.

Maybe a drop of 3-4% there, but they should easily remain ahead of the ÖVP there.

Also in Vienna next fall, where Mayor Ludwig has been able to stabilize the party.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ is knee-deep in sh*t:

Strache will be charged by the state prosecution for filing personal expenses with the FPÖ accounting, such as renovations of his private swimming pool, private extra after-school lessons for his kids, buying Gucci clothes and handbags for his wife, grocery shopping and even planning costs for his future burial and grave.

In other words: the so-called „small guy / average Joe“ voter paid for Strache’s private life and he disguised it as party expenditures ...

https://orf.at/stories/3145771

[Tender Branson]

Hilarious:

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2040226-Wiener-FPOe-fuerchtet-sich-vor-moeglicher-Strache-Finte.html?em_no_split=1

The FPÖ wants to get rid of Strache now for good, removing his „suspended“ party membership and expel him.

But that’s not so easy ...

While Hofer, Kickl and 6 of the 9 state FPÖ-leaders are calling for Strache’s total removal from the party, it is ultimately the state party of a member that is responsible for revoking the party membership. In Strache’s case Vienna.

And they are pretty split.

Today a little-known fact went public: Strache was frontrunner in the 2015 Vienna state election when the FPÖ scored a record result of 31%. He was also frontrunner in Vienna-South, but didn’t take his seat in the Vienna city parliament of course (even though he was elected), but remained Austrian FPÖ leader instead.

Which now means that if a single pro-Strache MP of the Vienna city parliament would resign, Strache would become a city MP.

And not only that: as a city MP, he could form a new group there with rogue Strache backers, get public funding and run for the Vienna election next year.

Maybe that’s why the Vienna FPÖ doesn’t really want to kick him out for good - even though there is pressure from Hofer, Kickl & Co. ...

[Tender Branson]

The Greens could soon overtake the SPÖ ...



Poll conducted before the latest FPÖ/Strache revelations.

This week was brutal for the SPÖ, the weekend coverage will be brutal for the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

The ORF reports that Pamela Rendi-Wagner‘s days as SPÖ leader are apparently numbered and it’s only a matter of days until she’s gone.

The mood within the SPÖ right now is described as „mad“ and „furious“ ...

https://orf.at/stories/3145816

[Tender Branson]

Krone newspaper:

Pamela Rendi-Wagner very likely to resign tomorrow as SPÖ-leader, after 370 days in office.

Austria: no country for Hermione Grangers.

[Tender Branson]

Krone newspaper:

Pamela Rendi-Wagner very likely to resign tomorrow as SPÖ-leader, after 370 days in office.

Austria: no country for Hermione Grangers.

Pretty sad that PRW is likely being forced out tomorrow ...

Tells your more about the state of the SPÖ right now than about her. She has always been a very competent and articulate politician, but the SPÖ really needs to start from scratch, with completely new people, new ideas, a new social media and PR team.

Let’s hope the SPÖ allows Pamela Rendi-Wagner enough time to write a good resignation speech, so she can go out in style tomorrow evening ...