Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Here is how subgroups would vote right now, based on the new Research Affairs/Ö24 poll (the MoE among the subgroups is pretty high though, except for men and women):

[Tender Branson]

100 years ago, the first federal election took place in which women were able to vote.

Even today, only 37% of Austria's parliament MPs are women - so for the 100th anniversary of the occasion, the Austrian parliament was outfitted with 100% young women for a day:

[Tender Branson]

A new GMK/Bezirksblätter poll for the March 10 municipal elections here in Salzburg, specifically a poll for the City of Salzburg:

City council



Mayor (1st round)



Preuner (ÖVP) has only won the 2017 by-election runoff with about 50.2% of the vote, so a defeat could be possible based on these numbers.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP-FPÖ coalition will get "their" first joint baby:



Johanna Jachs (ÖVP, 27) and Hannes Amesbauer (FPÖ, 37) are expecting their first child. They are both representatives in the Austrian Parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/erstes-tuerkis-blaues-koalitionsbaby-kommt-im-august-zur-welt/400414481

[Tender Branson]

Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ-leader) was a first-responder yesterday, when she was on a highway in Salzburg and a motorcycle accident happened in front of her:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/salzburg-rendi-wagner-leistete-erste-hilfe-bei-verkehrsunfall/400414109

The driver was moderately injured and Rendi-Wagner helped him (she's a doctor) until the ambulance arrived.

[Tender Branson]

Austrians strongly support mandatory vaccinations of children against such diseases like measles:

https://www.heute.at/life/gesundheit/story/Masern-Masern-Impfung-Impfen-Politik-Umfrage-Mehrheit-der--sterreicher-fuer-Impfpflicht-fuer-Kinder-41886458

Even though vaccinations are not mandatory, 77% support it while just 17% are opposed. The FPÖ-led Health Ministry has said that vaccinations will not be made mandatory for now, as the measles cases in Austria are still relatively low in the European context and the percentage of children with protection is high anyway, despite not being mandatory.

[Tender Branson]

After the recent brutal murder of a welfare agency worker by an illegal asylum seeker in Dornbirn, FPÖ Interior Minister Kickl has brought up the idea of a "preventive imprisonment" for illegal asylum seekers or accepted asylum seekers with previous crimes:



https://orf.at/stories/3113584

This has been the topic of a very controversial debate here over the past week or so and for it to be passed, it would need a constitutional 2/3 majority.

While the more FPÖ-leaning Governor of Burgenland Doskozil (SPÖ) has come out in favour of this idea (with an expansion to Austrian citizens, if a psychologist for example has clear evidence for an impending crime), the federal SPÖ leadership and party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner clarified that she's opposed to a general preventive imprisonment.

With the SPÖ, NEOS and NOW saying that they will not back it, ÖVP-FPÖ have no 2/3 majority in parliament to implement the measure (even the ÖVP Justice Minister, Education Minister, the head of the lawyer's union and the Church has come out against the measure).

Still, a poll out today shows that 69% of Austrians would support such a preventive imprisonment of asylum seekers and only 22% opposed.

90% of ÖVP-voters would support it and 86% of FPÖ-voters. Even SPÖ-voters support it by a 56-34 margin.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190302_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-mehrheit-der-oesterreicher-haelt-sicherungshaft-fuer-ueberlegenswert

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian population on Jan. 1, 2019 was 8.86 million and increased by 38.000 persons or about 0.4% compared with the year earlier. It mostly increased in the big cities and suburbs.

The number of people with a foreign citizenship increased to 16.2% (up from 15.8%) and the share with a migrant background to 25%.

There were 9.450 naturalisations last year. Despite that, the number of Austrian citizens still decreased by 6.000 people overall, while the number of foreigners increased by 44.000 people. Of the increase of 44.000, about 37.000 came from EU-foreigners while non-EU foreigners went up by about 7.000 people.

The foreign citizenships with the highest numerical increases were Romanians (+11.000), followed by Germans and Hungarians (+6.000 each).

There were 85.100 births in Austria last year (-2.9%) and 82.800 deaths (-0.5%) and therefore a natural increase of 2.300 people.

It remains to be seen if the drop in the birth numbers will continue or not, because 2019 will see generous tax benefits for families with kids. Maybe some couples delayed having kids to this year to cash in on the benefits.

The infant mortality rate dropped to 2.5/1000 births, a new record low.

There were also 45.500 marriages (+1.1%) and 450 civil unions (-15%). The sharp drop could be explained by many couples waiting for 2019 to marry (gay marriage became legal this year).

http://www.statistik.at/web_de/presse/120257.html

http://www.statistik.at/web_de/presse/120329.html

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian economy increased by 2.7% in real terms last year, the best performance since 2011 and among the best results in the EU (excl. Eastern Europe of course).



https://derstandard.at/2000098748016/Oesterreichische-Wirtschaft-2018-real-um-2-7-Prozent-gewachsen

Still, the unemployment rate only dropped to 4.8% last year, because of the many EU-foreigners streaming into the country and into the labour market. A growth rate like 2.7% would usually lead to a much lower unemployment rate, but Austrian companies these days seem to only hire foreigners instead of Austrian unemployed.

A new study in the "Standard" shows that of all new jobs created since 2008, some 90% (!) went to foreigners.

Of the more than 450.000 new jobs in the past 10 years, about 373.000 went to foreigners.

At the same time, about 300.000 Austrian citizens are without jobs ... which is sad. Our companies should increase their efforts to hire local people, even if it means training them for a while, instead of just opting for foreign employees.

https://derstandard.at/2000098838418/Der-Jobboom-ist-auslaendisch-Wie-Migration-den-Arbeitsmarkt-umkrempelt

[Tender Branson]

After the recent brutal murder of a welfare agency worker by an illegal asylum seeker in Dornbirn, FPÖ Interior Minister Kickl has brought up the idea of a "preventive imprisonment" for illegal asylum seekers or accepted asylum seekers with previous crimes.

Kurz now wants to act quickly and pass a new law for asylum seekers to put them into preventive imprisonment, which apparently doesn't need a 2/3 majority in parliament (unlike if such a measure also includes Austrian citizens).

In fact, many EU countries already allow preventive imprisonment of illegal/already criminal asylum seekers, to avoid further crimes.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kanzler-macht-bei-sicherungshaft-tempo-rechtlich-saubere-loesung/400423991

[Tender Branson]

The new uniforms of the Austrian Army are now officially worn, starting today.

Thank Goodness, because the old ones looked like straight out of WW2 or North Korea ...

New combat uniforms and helmets:





New army base uniforms:



Old ones:



https://www.kleinezeitung.at/steiermark/5589107/CamouflageLook_Ab-heute-sehen-TarnUniformen-des-Bundesheeres

[rob in cal]

    Tender, in your area do you see lots of foreign workers?  Looks like Hungarians and Rumanians and other East Europeans predominate.  Do you see this throughout Austria, or more just in the big urban areas?

[Tender Branson]

    Tender, in your area do you see lots of foreign workers?  Looks like Hungarians and Rumanians and other East Europeans predominate.  Do you see this throughout Austria, or more just in the big urban areas?

Foreign workers now make up 20%+ of the workforce here, which is higher than their population share. And it is not just in urban areas, but everywhere. Obviously, the labour market needs some additional skilled workers from abroad, but not the unqualified people from the Middle East or Africa. We have 300.000 unemployed Austrians (as I have mentioned above), where our companies have a social responsibility to hire them and train them properly for a period of time (even if this takes longer than just hiring a skilled worker from another EU country).

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections take place on Sunday here in Salzburg and its 119 cities and towns for a new 5-year term.

I have already voted via post for the SPÖ mayoral candidate and SPÖ for city council.

My prediction for Zell am See mayor:

58% Peter Padourek (ÖVP, incumbent) (-8% compared with 2014)
37% Andreas Wimmreuter (SPÖ) (+8%)
  5% Werner Hörl (Greens) (n.c.)

The SPÖ candidate is obviously hurt by the presence of a Green candidate on the ballot, while there is no FPÖ or NEOS candidate there to hurt the ÖVP candidate.

For the city council, the FPS will run instead of the FPÖ.

My prediction:

50% ÖVP (-3%)
34% SPÖ (+4%)
  8% Greens (-1%)
  8% FPS (n.c. vs. FPÖ in 2014)

In Radstadt for example, ÖVP (!) and SPÖ (!) did not find a candidate for mayor who wanted to run, so the FPÖ candidate Pewny will be the only one on the ballot. He still needs to get approved by the voters, such as other lone mayoral candidates in other towns. If more than 50% vote "no", a new mayor needs to be elected by the new city council.

In the state capital, Salzburg City (155.000 people), the results should be along the lines of the poll I posted above and there will definitely be a runoff between Preuner (ÖVP) and Auinger (SPÖ) 2 weeks later and I have no clue who wins. It will be close again, with a very, very slight advantage for Preuner. But I would not be shocked if Auinger wins this time.

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/bmw/index2019.html#erg.5.1.0.0

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/gvw/index2019.html#erg.5.0.0.0

[Tender Branson]

After FPÖ-leader Strache recently took paternal leave after the birth of their child, the next Austrian party leader will take maternal leave soon:



Liberal NEOS-leader Beate Meinl-Reisinger (already highly pregnant) will be absent for the next month or two and miss most of the EU election campaign.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does the FPO have any vulnerability on their right flank, given that they are a governing party now?

[Tender Branson]

Does the FPO have any vulnerability on their right flank, given that they are a governing party now?

Nope.

There are some fringe Auxit groups to the right of the FPÖ and actual Neonazis, but the first groups are small and fragmented and the second, if they were to establish their own parties, would be banned.

Besides, the FPÖ is still holding up quite well after more than a year in government: their supporters are mostly happy, even the far-right ones. Trouble would only start if they drop below 20% in the polls, which seems unlikely ATM.

[rob in cal]

  Just keep the deportation numbers rising, new asylum requests downward and I think most FPO voters would be happy. Also, it would be nice to see the new direct democracy law, in spite of its high signature threshold, activated, but of course thats not to allowed until after this parliament is over, IIRC.

[Tender Branson]

  Just keep the deportation numbers rising, new asylum requests downward and I think most FPO voters would be happy. Also, it would be nice to see the new direct democracy law, in spite of its high signature threshold, activated, but of course thats not to allowed until after this parliament is over, IIRC.

Yeah, more direct democracy is something that ÖVP-FPÖ is planning for 2022, or in their 2nd term.

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today, everything very stable:



https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Kurz-fliegt-allen-davon--Gruene-wiedergeboren-49512316



https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Rendi-rutscht-ab-FPOe-schon-Zweite/370910425

[Tender Branson]

About 35.000 postal ballots have been requested for the municipal elections here in Salzburg tomorrow.

That is a lot more than in 2014, when just 27.000 were requested and roughly the same amount as for the 2018 state election.

Not sure what this means for turnout overall but I expect about a 70% turnout tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

By a vote of 45-18, the Austrian Protestant Church assembly decided today to allow LGBT's to be married in their Church(es).

Gay marriage is legal since Jan. 1 this year.

https://evang.at/schritt-richtung-gleichberechtigung-oeffentlicher-segnungsgottesdienst-fuer-alle

Good.

Will be interesting to see when the Catholic Church and Muslims will follow ... maybe in 200 years ?

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections (city councils and 1st rounds of mayoral elections) here in the state of Salzburg today.

In 119 cities and for a new 5 year term.

The first polls will open around 7am and close at noon in some smaller towns and then up until 5pm in bigger cities.

I‘m mostly interested in the results of my city (Zell am See) and that of the towns in the district + the results of the capital Salzburg City (155.000 people).

The weather is cold and mostly dry in the South and a bit warmer but rainy in the North.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for Salzburg City today:

Mayor (1st round)

33.1% - Harald Preuner (ÖVP, incumbent)
31.5% - Bernhard Auinger (SPÖ)
13.5% - Martina Berthold (Greens)
10.9% - Andreas Reindl (FPÖ)
  6.4% - Lukas Paul Rösslhuber (NEOS)
  2.6% - Christoph Ferch (SALZ)
  1.8% - Kay-Michael Dankl (KPÖ+)
  0.2% - Hadwig Soyoye-Rothschädl (Left)

City Council

34.2% - SPÖ
27.9% - ÖVP
13.3% - Greens
10.9% - FPÖ
  7.1% - NEOS
  2.6% - SALZ
  2.0% - FPS
  1.8% - KPÖ+
  0.2% - Left

[Tender Branson]

A first trend should come in about 1 hour, when the first polls close at noon in some small towns - such as Krimml, a tourist magnet because of Europe's highest waterfalls and recovery spot for those with breath or lung disease like asthma.

http://www.wasserfaelle-krimml.at/en/be-amazed/natural-remedy