Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.

Who are you going to support?

I'm currently undecided between ÖVP, SPÖ, Greens and NEOS - but I have a tendency for the Greens.

[Tender Branson]

I'm currently undecided between ÖVP, SPÖ, Greens and NEOS - but I have a tendency for the Greens.

When another 2015 happens, you're to blame.

I can oppose mass immigration and vote Green at the same time (especially, since they have learned from their mistakes of the past and shut up about importing people from Africa and the Middle-East right now and focus on what matters and what the party was founded on: environmentalism).

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-Greens-NEOS is the most likely option right now. I think the Greens will come around and enter the coalition if offered the choice to govern and if Kurz sends more moderate signals on certain topics.

ÖVP-FPÖ 3.0 is also quite likely.

Even ÖVP-SPÖ could be likely, but probably only if the SPÖ gets soundly defeated and Rendi-Wagner is replaced with someone else.

---

Also: The Greens will announce their lead candidate(s) today. Signs are pointing towards party leader Werner Kogler, who has led the Greens to a surprisingly high 14%+ in the EU elections and who gets extremely good support from the Green base because of it. It is likely that if Kogler runs, there will be a German-style Doppelspitze with a woman as his backup.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Gruene-geben-Spitzenkandidaten-bekannt/384453595

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, do you think a new OVP FPO coalition is fairly possible soon?  I thought with all the bad blood developing over the Strache affair, plus FPO actually voting to unseat Kurz etc that that would not be very likely at all in the near future at any rate.

They could find ways to get back together again, but I assume only if Kickl does not become Interior Minister again.

[Tender Branson]

The Greens will announce their lead candidate(s) today. Signs are pointing towards party leader Werner Kogler, who has led the Greens to a surprisingly high 14%+ in the EU elections and who gets extremely good support from the Green base because of it. It is likely that if Kogler runs, there will be a German-style Doppelspitze with a woman as his backup.

Green-leader Werner Kogler has decided not to take his seat in the EU parliament and become frontrunner for the September election instead.

https://orf.at/stories/3126769

Good choice.

Kogler is a folksy guy and a good debater.

[Tender Branson]

The Vienna-FPÖ just voted to grant Philippa Strache the 3rd spot on their election list for September, guaranteeing her entry into the Austrian parliament (assuming she accepts the deal and H.C. Strache refuses to take his EU parliament seat):


Credit: Austrian Press Agency, open domain.

If elected, Philippa Strache will become the animal rights spokesperson for the FPÖ in parliament because their old MP will retire. Philippa is also a former SPÖ-voter and parliamentary aide for the SPÖ, before H.C. turned her blue.

https://derstandard.at/2000104891170/Philippa-StracheJetzt-steigt-Frau-Strache-in-die-politische-Arena

https://derstandard.at/2000104897130/FPOe-Wien-macht-Philippa-Strache-zum-Fixstarter-fuer-Nationalrat

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-Kickl says that the party will end up with 20%+ in the election and could even end up close to the 26% they got in 2017 if the election campaign goes well for them ("Norbert Hofer leading the party into the election is the best thing that could happen.")

He also said that this time he won't be the FPÖ's campaign manager and therefore not responsible for their campaign posters and that ÖVP-FPÖ could be possible again. He said that Kurz personally wanted to continue the previous government, but was pressured into kicking Kickl out of government by the so-called "old, black ÖVP types" (meaning their Governors in the states).

https://orf.at/stories/3126958

[Tender Branson]

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.

Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.

And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SPÖ in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. ÖVP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the ÖVP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.

You really don't see that coming seriously? The medias are playing this narrative

It doesn't make sense to me, no. Kogler himself called it extremely unlikely yesterday ("I lack the fantasy needed to imagine that"), which is not a surprise, given Kurz has spent the last two years acting completely contrary to the Green's interests.

https://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/15756081/gruenen-chef-kogler-fuer-koalition-mit-kurz-fehlt-mir-die-fantasie

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

[Tender Branson]

Notice for Kalwejt, regarding the posting of pictures/copyright:

In the future, I will post pictures here from the APA (Austrian Press Agency) and from the Federal Chancellery, who grant their pictures to be posted on websites for political education purposes for free, if the source and name of the photographer are mentioned below the picture.

Punkt 3:

Soweit nicht ohnehin das Recht auf freie Werknutzung, insbesondere gemäß § 42 UrhG besteht, erteilt der Bund die

nicht übertragbare,
nicht ausschließliche,
zeitlich und räumlich unbeschränkte
Bewilligung das Bildmaterial des Fotoservice, an dem dem Bund die Rechte zustehen, kostenfrei

zu nicht kommerziellen Zwecken,
zu redaktionellen Zwecken von Medien und
zu Zwecken im Bereich der politischen Bildung
zu vervielfältigen, zu verbreiten, zu senden, öffentlich vorzuführen oder im Internet zur Verfügung zu stellen.

Eine darüber hinausgehende Nutzung, insbesondere für Werbezwecke, ist nicht zulässig.

Punkt 4:

Bei Veröffentlichung des Fotomaterials muss das abgebildete Sujet der Bildquelle und dem jeweiligen Fotografen zugeordnet werden können. Das gilt auch für Sammelbilder. Das Fotoservice des BKA ist als Bildquelle und mittels Schrägstrich nachgesetzt, der Name der Fotografin bzw. des Fotografen zu nennen. Beispiel: BKA/Andy Wenzel.

http://fotoservice.bundeskanzleramt.at/nutzungsbedingungen.html

For example:

[picture]

Source: BKA/Andy Wenzel

It also says so on the English-version of the Chancellery:

Copyright

Federal Chancellery of Austria 2019

Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. Any restrictions on use shall be clearly indicated.

https://www.bundeskanzleramt.gv.at/en/copyright.html?lang=en

[Tender Branson]

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SPÖ will not get their act together in 3 months and the FPÖ will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% ÖVP, 20-24% SPÖ, 17-21% FPÖ, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SPÖ+FPÖ would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, this is sickening:

[Tender Branson]

Wow, this is sickening:

why ?

it's just a pray... what is your problem with that ?

Just a pray ? Kurz and his cult-like followers are setting the guy up to be a modern Jesus or Messiah, who is out to clean Austria from all the evil.

A prayer session in a Mega-Church in Oklahoma feat. Ted Cruz could not top that and we are talking about Austria here, where state and religion is supposedly seperated ... !

The fact that Kurz is willing to tie himself to these ultra-Christian stuff is highly disturbing IMO.

[Tender Branson]

The Greens have announced that there will be no co-operation or fusion with NOW for the election.

https://www.sn.at/politik/innenpolitik/liste-jetzt-bedauert-nein-der-gruenen-zu-kooperation-71807263

[Tender Branson]

The Europride was held in Vienna and 500.000 people attended.

President Van der Bellen was the 1st European President to address the crowd (or so it was said):

https://twitter.com/vanderbellen/status/1139986414060412935

https://twitter.com/LGTBNews/status/1140225715713040384

[Tender Branson]

The public ORF broadcaster has decided to allow the Greens to take part in the upcoming TV debates for the election, despite the fact that they are not in parliament right now:

https://www.krone.at/1943399

The FPÖ is not amused.

[Tender Branson]

"EU-No !", which failed to get onto the ballot for the EU elections, will try again in September for the federal election under the name "ÖXIT: Platform for Homeland, Environment, Neutrality and Direct Democracy."

It will be relatively easy this time to get on the ballot, because unlike in the EU election where you needed 2.600 signatures Austria-wide, you can also contest the election in single states as well, with signatures ranging from 100-500 in each state. They got some 2.400 for the EU election.

https://orf.at/#/stories/3127242

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+Greens decided today that the Vorarlberg state election will be held on Oct. 13:

https://derstandard.at/2000105066301/Vorarlberg-Wahl-fix-am-13-Oktober

[Tender Branson]

H.C. Strache already planning his comeback:

* There has been a deal between the FPÖ and the Straches, which both sides accepted

* H.C. Strache will not take his EU seat and stay mostly "quiet" for the next year

* Instead, he got a consulting job for the FPÖ, worth 10.000€ per month

* His wife Philippa will run for parliament this fall, worth 9.000€ per month

* This will compensate for the 20.000€ per month H.C. earned as Vice-Chancellor

* If the state prosecution does not charge Strache with anything, Strache will return as FPÖ-lead candidate for the important 2020 Vienna state election (but only assuming the state prosecution announces so several months before the state election). Otherwise, Dominik Nepp will become lead candidate.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/heinz-christian-strache-plant-sein-comeback-in-oesterreich-a-1272827.html

[Tender Branson]

New SORA/Integral poll for the public ORF broadcaster:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1141332946433036288
For the first time since 2002, a majority for ÖVP+Greens.

Also, a new high for the Greens. Not an all-time high, but certainly for the past few years.

[Tender Branson]

I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet).

The only European country which still has the death penalty is Belarus.

[Tender Branson]

APA/OGM's new "trust index" of major politicians shows that for the first time, Kurz is no longer the most trusted politician in the country.

His numbers have gone down by a lot and he was overtaken by interim Chancellor Bierlein and President VdB:



The chart shows the balance of "I have trust" minus "I have no trust" in this politician.

Werner Kogler and Beate Meinl-Reisinger have decent numbers for leaders of small opposition parties, Pamela Rendi-Wagner not so much and Peter Pilz is down and out.

Interesting also that Norbert Hofer has gone from roughly balanced to a strong negative saldo after taking over the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

After 2 weeks into her job, Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein has attended her first EU summit yesterday:



Source: BKA/Andy Wenzel (free)

[Tender Branson]

I think that turnout could hit 81-85% this time.

Why ?

Because until now, early elections always had higher turnout than the election before ...

1970: 91.8%
1971: 92.4%

1994: 81.9%
1995: 86.0%

1999: 80.4%
2002: 84.3%

2006: 78.5%
2008: 78.8%

2013: 74.9%
2017: 80.0%
2019: ?

I think this year is very similar to the 1999 -> 2002 situation.

Also, the fact that the Greens could enter parliament again and increased enthusiasm among the young crowd due to the climate change strikes are speaking in favour of higher turnout this time.

[Tender Branson]

I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet).

The only European country which still has the death penalty is Belarus.

And Austria is among the least likely countries to bring it back.

Yes, support is only 10%.

[Tender Branson]

Will Bierlein return to the court after the election or is this the "crown" of her career in public service?

Bierlein would have retired as Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court anyway in July after their final session for the year, because there's an age limit of 70.

She turns 70 on Tuesday.