Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Oryxslayer]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

As others have already alluded, it's quite impossible to say with any degree of certainty. The big problem behind this is Sebastian Kurz - he called this election in hopes of pulling a Schüssel 2002 and scoring above 40%, having his choice of potential partner; but all signs point to him finishing more or less where he was since 2017, with at most meagre gains of 2-3%. He both failed at cannibalising the FPÖ (which would have allowed him to continue the government very much at his terms) and at gaining voters to his left (which would have allowed him to go into government with a weakened SPÖ that doesn't have to fear much from their left). As it stands now, he gained a few FPÖ voters; and the centre-left bloc interchanged voters between themselves (interestingly, if there was movement between blocs, it appears to have actually occured right-to-left, according to the latest polls), but the raw numbers have not changed much since 2017.

What has changed is the attitude of the political players - where ÖVP-FPÖ was a natural option then, a lot has happened to destroy trust on both sides. Hofer may want government participation at any price, but the powerful ÖVP state parties have a word to say in this as well (arguably they forced Kurz to break off the coalition at this point over Kickl), and so do the Strache / Kickl wing in the FPÖ. They may not be willing to pay just any price, and after all, the FPÖ is nowhere better than in opposition.

ÖVP-SPÖ, the ancestral plan B of Austrian politics, is as little appealing as ever. A lot of bad blood still exists between the two, and not only at the top level. Furthermore, the SPÖ needs to take just a very short peak north to see what can happen when you go into government as a junior partner to a conservative party (that would be the first time since 1966, non the less!) while you have a re-emerged green party on your left flank. In the end, as the SPÖ is still a party that never really finds its tune in opposition, and as the current leadership is easily disposed of if that were a problem, it might just still happen, but the chances are definitely slimmer than during most of recent history.

All the other options are more or less pipe dreams, imo: three-party-governments have no history in Austria, and the Greens would be opting for suicide if they went into one with both ÖVP and Neos; ÖVP-Greens and ÖVP-Neos won't have a majority, not even speaking of the political difficulties, and I won't even begin to speak of SPÖ-FPÖ.

So we are really at a point where nothing really makes sense and nothing really satisifies anyone, and we're a few millions the poorer for it. Congratulations, Sebastian Kurz.

As for your Greens question - into parliament? Yes of course. Into government? Probably not (but then again, who does, except for Kurz?)

Looking at that it seems coalition building will be very hard if not impossible

How likely is a repeat election some time in early 2020?

So far, a government has always been formed, but early elections after a year have happened - in 1971 after a SPÖ-minority, in 1995 when (as usual) the ÖVP broke off a Grand Coalition. I suppose some sort of government will be formed (what would elections directly afterwards change anyway?), but I doubt it will last the full five years (which would put it in good company - 6 of the last 14 elections have been early elections: 1986, 1995, 2002, 2008, 2017, 2019)

Yeah someone in the four serious negotiating parties needs to bend (NEOS are happy with any Kurz govt) from their current position for there to be a govt. Bending tends to result in 'snap-backs' later on when beneficial.

[Tender Branson]

One of the worst things I fear out of an ÖVP-Greens-NEOS coalition is that it would become too pro-business and neo-liberal:

For example NEOS is pushing pretty hard a so-called retirement age automatism, where retirement ages would be raised all the time along with higher life expectancy.

That would suck massively, especially for workers who are not as privileged as the typical NEOS politician or voter and who have never done real or hard work themselves, like in construction.

Therefore, the Greens need to get some 15% in such a coalition to block any such attempt to raise retirement ages to 67 or 70.

Considering these demands, SPÖ+Greens+NEOS+Pilz would be even better for average workers.

[Tender Branson]

Good, but why did it take so long ?

https://www.dw.com/en/austria-to-give-citizenship-to-descendants-of-nazi-victims/a-50515641

DavidB. now eligible for dual Dutch-Austrian citizenship.

[Cranberry]

Yeah someone in the four serious negotiating parties needs to bend (NEOS are happy with any Kurz govt) from their current position for there to be a govt. Bending tends to result in 'snap-backs' later on when beneficial.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. If the polls are to believed, Kurz's first government with the FPÖ ended with them near doubling their vote share (they're matching the ÖVP for the second largest increase), most of which of course will have come straight from the ÖVP (disregarding first-time voters where Neos will have a disproportionate share). Liberal opposition to a right-wing government seems to do them well, while propping up just anything with ÖVP in it doesn't necessarily have to. If they are clever, they will cost Kurz more than he would hope for.

[Tender Branson]

Nice visualisation of how seat allocation works in Austria:

https://vis.strategieanalysen.at/mandate/

[Tender Branson]

The APA (Austrian Press Agency) already has their election results pages and visualisations online - still filled with 2017 data:

http://visual.apa.at/election/showcase.national.html

This will be the important clickable map for next Sunday:

http://visual.apa.at/election/index.map.html

You will be able to see results by state, district and town, turnout and strongholds of each party.

[Tender Branson]

Tonight:

Elephant debate of the 6 major frontrunners on Puls4/ATV/Servus TV.


© APA

The debate will last 3 hours, starting at 8.15pm - and you can watch it here:

https://www.puls4.com/live-551

(Stream might be blocked abroad.)

[Tender Branson]

President VdB and Chancellor Bierlein have cut a joint video in which they urge Austrians to vote next Sunday:

[Tender Branson]

Tonight:

Elephant debate of the 6 major frontrunners on Puls4/ATV/Servus TV.


© APA

The debate will last 3 hours, starting at 8.15pm - and you can watch it here:

https://www.puls4.com/live-551

(Stream might be blocked abroad.)

This debate is very rough so far.

Everyone attacking each other about being corrupt etc.

Can’t see how a government will be formed with these people ...

[Tender Branson]

Whether you like Pilz or not, he does an effective job at trolling and exposing Kurz and the ÖVP‘s shady party financing.

In turn, Norbert Hofer was very nasty to Pilz - reminding voters that Pilz quit his job as MP because of accusations of sexual assault against women (the case was dropped) and that Pilz has a prominent animal rights activist on his election list, who is a convicted criminal.

[crals]

What are Pilz's chances of making it again?

[Tender Branson]

What are Pilz's chances of making it again?

Small, but not impossible.

[Tender Branson]

Here’s probably the final poll before the election next Sunday:



Zielgruppe: wahlberechtigte Österreicher/innen
Methode: Telefon/Online (im Verhältnis 2:1)
Sample: n=3.021
Max. Schwankungsbreite: +/- 1,8%
Feldarbeit: 12. bis 20. September 2019

Turnout: 74% (-6)

[DL]

is it fair to say that NEOS is essentially an Austrian version of the FDP in Germany?

[Tender Branson]

is it fair to say that NEOS is essentially an Austrian version of the FDP in Germany?

I would say so, yes.

I don't know all of their positions on the issues, but they are vastly comparable on most of the important topics (economy, social issues).

Maybe the FDP has become a bit more immigration-critical than NEOS recently ...

[DL]

My understanding is that at one time the FPO was very much the Austrian sister party to the FDP - but then they got taken over by far right elements and evolved from being a quasi-liberal free market party into more of populist xenophobic party and that NEOS is a bit of an attempt to recreate the old FPO that was more socially liberal and often formed coalitions with the SPO in the 70s and 80s.

is that correct?

[jaichind]

Is it possible that post election we end up with ÖVP-NEOS with FPÖ abstaining or does it have to be a positive majority vote ?

[Tender Branson]

My understanding is that at one time the FPO was very much the Austrian sister party to the FDP - but then they got taken over by far right elements and evolved from being a quasi-liberal free market party into more of populist xenophobic party and that NEOS is a bit of an attempt to recreate the old FPO that was more socially liberal and often formed coalitions with the SPO in the 70s and 80s.

is that correct?

That is correct. The big changes within the FPÖ (with former Nazi-people of course) occurred in the mid-1980s, when Haider took over and changed the party from a classic national-liberal party into a far-right vessel. Then the Liberal Forum split off in the early 1990s and turned into NEOS (which is far more competent than LIF ever was, mostly helped by modern-day PR methods in the Internet, which LIF didn't have).

[Tender Branson]

Is it possible that post election we end up with ÖVP-NEOS with FPÖ abstaining or does it have to be a positive majority vote ?

Such minority governments do not work here in the current hateful political climate, where it's all about character assassination and personal destruction.

An ÖVP-NEOS minority government would work 1 month and then it would be blown up by the opposition incl. the FPÖ.

This only worked under famous SPÖ-Chancellor Bruno Kreisky in the early 1970s, because Kreisky was a man of format - who had the political skills to take the FPÖ (at 5% !) on board to tolerate his 48% party.

Nowadays in this polarized climate, this is impossible.

[crals]

Could Bierlein stay on if Kurz can't form a coalition?

[Tender Branson]

Could Bierlein stay on if Kurz can't form a coalition?

Yes, she and her government will remain in office until the day a new government gets sworn in.

[Tender Branson]

One-on-one duels now happening on PULS4:

https://www.puls4.com/live-551

Currently, Kurz vs. Hofer.

Despite Hofer usually being a good debater, Kurz is easily winning this duel.

The personal climate between them is pretty good, but Kurz really seems to have a problem (rightly so) with all the „unique cases“ of FPÖ Nazi-comments in the recent months.

Kurz said he was disgusted by a FPÖ politician saying that asylum seekers should clean their rooms at shelters with toothbrushes (like the Jews had to do under the Nazis on the streets of Vienna).

[Cranberry]

My understanding is that at one time the FPO was very much the Austrian sister party to the FDP - but then they got taken over by far right elements and evolved from being a quasi-liberal free market party into more of populist xenophobic party and that NEOS is a bit of an attempt to recreate the old FPO that was more socially liberal and often formed coalitions with the SPO in the 70s and 80s.

is that correct?

An often-repeated myth, but not true at all. The FPÖ was founded explicitly by and for (former) Nazis, its first leaders were all SS-members, for instance. There were some liberal tendencies, most pronounced under people like Friedrich Peter or Norbert Steger, but even they always had some German nationalist / out-right Nazi afterthoughts (Peter was an SS volunteer, Steger comes from a Nazi household and is a member of a German nationalist Burschenschaft). There is still today a very pronounced economically liberal current in the party, one that would not at all be out of place with the pre-Haider FPÖ. Haider did change the party's outer looks and style, but fundamentally, they have always been the same.

[rob in cal]

  If the main roadblock to a renewed OVP FPO coalition is the interior ministry, is there some kind of compromise candidate, sort of like how Conte in Italy has been,  for Austria who could take the position and make both sides happy?

[Estrella]

My understanding is that at one time the FPO was very much the Austrian sister party to the FDP - but then they got taken over by far right elements and evolved from being a quasi-liberal free market party into more of populist xenophobic party and that NEOS is a bit of an attempt to recreate the old FPO that was more socially liberal and often formed coalitions with the SPO in the 70s and 80s.

is that correct?

An often-repeated myth, but not true at all. The FPÖ was founded explicitly by and for (former) Nazis, its first leaders were all SS-members, for instance. There were some liberal tendencies, most pronounced under people like Friedrich Peter or Norbert Steger, but even they always had some German nationalist / out-right Nazi afterthoughts (Peter was an SS volunteer, Steger comes from a Nazi household and is a member of a German nationalist Burschenschaft). There is still today a very pronounced economically liberal current in the party, one that would not at all be out of place with the pre-Haider FPÖ. Haider did change the party's outer looks and style, but fundamentally, they have always been the same.

It's worth noting though that FPÖ was a sister party to the FDP, just in the opposite way - back in the 1950s, FDP took in many ex-Nazis (the 'national liberals') and were the strongest opponents of denazification.