Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

It seems there will be at least 2 more polls before Sunday, one tonight after the Ö24 debate of all lead candidates and one on Thursday (Karmasin weekly tracking poll).

In previous elections, pollsters agreed not to release one in the final week ...

[Tender Branson]

Funny KPÖ ad:

I think only German speakers who know the Parship ads on TV will get it ...

[Tender Branson]

Ö24's final poll (Research Affairs, Sept. 19-22, n=1.000 online interviews):



FPÖ: +1
Greens: -1%

https://www.oe24.at/wahl2019/Letzte-Umfrage-Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen-um-Platz-zwei/398873611

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP is out with their final campaign poster:


© ÖVP

"His enemies say: We need to get rid of Kurz. But it's YOU who decides !"

"Rendi-Wagner wants to become Chancellor of Red-Green-Pink."
"Kickl once already ousted Kurz with the help of the SPÖ."
"Pilz wants to ban Sebastian Kurz by law."

[Tender Branson]

HUGE FPÖ-scandal breaking (almost as big as the initial Ibiza-scandal that led to the new election):

https://orf.at/stories/3138369

https://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/wilde-vorwuerfe-das-ist-straches-ehemaliger-bodyguard/400614638

Long story short:

Strache's long-term bodyguard (a former SWAT and police officer in Vienna and low-key FPÖ politician) has been arrested yesterday by the SOKO Ibiza special unit of the state prosecution office for faking evidence, fraud, embezzlement and conspiracy.

Oliver R. engaged himself with the FPÖ in the early 2000s and became Strache's bodyguard (one of three) in 2011, being very loyal.

He was always with Strache, so he knew everything about him. In 2015-16 though, the bodyguard was off work because of a sickness for a long time and when he returned, his relationship with Strache went from good to worse.

During this time, it's very likely according to witnesses that the bodyguard met several times with the shady Austrian/German detective and the lawyer who are seen as the prime suspects for creating the Ibiza video.

Now all of this makes more sense: the bodyguard probably leaked info to the detective and the lawyer about Strache's personal life, the detective set up the trap in Ibiza and the lawyer tried to sell the compromising material to the SPÖ, other parties, Böhmermann and eventually the German media who released the video.

Today, Strache commented on Facebook that he's "deeply disappointed by his former bodyguard" and Norbert Hofer called it an "attack on democracy".

Pretty weird that an FPÖ-member would blow up the party because Strache treated him badly and eventually fired him as his bodyguard, but apparently so it is ...

Now we know why Norbert Hofer recently said at the FPÖ-convention:

"Once and for all, we need to stop destroying ourselves !"

[Tender Branson]

There are 4 known cases of postal ballot mistakes from the Postal Service.

https://www.heute.at/s/wahlkarten-posse-aus-sandra-wurde-judih--45791497

2 cases are in Vienna, 2 in Salzburg.

In some cases, the postman handed the postal ballot to a completely different person without checking for an ID (which is required).

In the other cases, the postman was unable to meet the person who requested the postal ballot at home, deployed it at the local post center and then another person picked it up there. Once again, the postal workers did not check for a valid ID !

Those 4 people who requested them will now lose their vote, because it is likely that someone else voted for them.

Nonetheless, the 4 postal ballots will not count: the district election commissions will screen for the returned envelopes and invalidate them.

[Tender Branson]

There are more and more voices inside the FPÖ to kick out Strache after the election, reports the Kurier newspaper:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/fpoe-will-strache-aus-der-partei-ausschliessen/400615142

Fake or not, Strache and the FPÖ have to deal with accusations of a deeply fraudulent expenses system over the years, which apparently come from the documents that Strache’s former bodyguard leaked to the media.

Strache is therefore becoming more and more of a liability for the party and the legal costs for him after Ibiza (which the party currently pays for) are about to exceed 300.000 € ...

The bodyguard also leaked pictures showing suitcases full of € notes in FPÖ cars, with the money apparently being from Russia or Ukraine ...

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg City has issued 18.600 postal ballots so far, compared with 15.700 in total for the 2017 election and there are still a few days to go.

Link

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS have passed the constitutional deficit and debt brake (in US-terms: a balanced budget amendment) today in the final parliamentary session before the election, with 68% of the vote.

The law would require Austria to have balanced budgets from now on (a max. deficit of 0.45% of GDP is allowed in such events as natural disasters or recession).

This is only symbolic and meaningless though, because SPÖ+Greens will block it in the 2nd chamber of parliament, the chamber representing the states, where NEOS is not part of. Therefore, the Bundesrat has no 2/3 majority for ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS ...

[Cranberry]

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS have passed the constitutional deficit and debt brake (in US-terms: a balanced budget amendment) today in the final parliamentary session before the election, with 68% of the vote.

The law would require Austria to have balanced budgets from now on (a max. deficit of 0.45% of GDP is allowed in such events as natural disasters or recession).

This is only symbolic and meaningless though, because SPÖ+Greens will block it in the 2nd chamber of parliament, the chamber representing the states, where NEOS is not part of. Therefore, the Bundesrat has no 2/3 majority for ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS ...

Thank god for the Bundesrat!

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS have passed the constitutional deficit and debt brake (in US-terms: a balanced budget amendment) today in the final parliamentary session before the election, with 68% of the vote.

The law would require Austria to have balanced budgets from now on (a max. deficit of 0.45% of GDP is allowed in such events as natural disasters or recession).

This is only symbolic and meaningless though, because SPÖ+Greens will block it in the 2nd chamber of parliament, the chamber representing the states, where NEOS is not part of. Therefore, the Bundesrat has no 2/3 majority for ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS ...

Thank god for the Bundesrat!

I actually support the constitutional law, unlike the Greens.

We need to end the cult of indebting ourselves and instead find ways each year to keep the budget balanced. This is sustainable and responsible politics for future generations.

The other options in the long run are Greece or Venezuela ...

[Tender Branson]

With the votes of ÖVP+FPÖ, their long-planned „Violence Prevention Package“ was just passed in parliament.

It will see stricter and longer sentences for several crimes, such as rape and make it easier for victims of domestic abuse to change shelters for women, for example by changing states (if their stalking ex-partners track them down).

[Cranberry]

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS have passed the constitutional deficit and debt brake (in US-terms: a balanced budget amendment) today in the final parliamentary session before the election, with 68% of the vote.

The law would require Austria to have balanced budgets from now on (a max. deficit of 0.45% of GDP is allowed in such events as natural disasters or recession).

This is only symbolic and meaningless though, because SPÖ+Greens will block it in the 2nd chamber of parliament, the chamber representing the states, where NEOS is not part of. Therefore, the Bundesrat has no 2/3 majority for ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS ...

Thank god for the Bundesrat!

I actually support the constitutional law, unlike the Greens.

We need to end the cult of indebting ourselves and instead find ways each year to keep the budget balanced. This is sustainable and responsible politics for future generations.

The other options in the long run are Greece or Venezuela ...

The debt break is already law, just not constitutional. There is no need for it to be, it only cripples the way the state can act in a recession. But of course, the former government suffered from the same disease as nearly all other Austrian governments, putting every little law that does not belong there into the constitution.

[Tender Branson]

Final OGM poll (for ServusTV) before the election (Sept. 16-23, n=1.006):

34% ÖVP
22% SPÖ
20% FPÖ
12% Greens
  8% NEOS
  2% Pilz/NOW
  2% Others

https://www.ogm.at/wahlprognose/ogm-wahlprognose-nationalratswahlen-2019

[parochial boy]

I actually support the constitutional law, unlike the Greens.

We need to end the cult of indebting ourselves and instead find ways each year to keep the budget balanced. This is sustainable and responsible politics for future generations.

The other options in the long run are Greece or Venezuela ...

You really don't need to run a balanced budget - as the classic example, the UK's debt as a proportion of GDP dropped from over 200% in the 1940s to under 50% in the 1990s, even though it was running a budget deficit nearly the whole time. A growing economy, and budget deficits very much help economies grow, is a far better way to reduce the "debt burden on future generations" than an ideological debt break that is really just an excuse to reduce social spending

I mean, just look at your neighbours, Germany's deficit fetishism is one of the reasons they are falling into recession. Just as an example,  DB's reputation has been ruined because the infrastructure has been negelected; and the Port of Hamburg is losing orders to Rotterdam and Antwerp because it's been starved of investement.

Anyway, apparently Vorarlberg wants to join Switzerland. As a better alternative, maybe we can give you St Gallen?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Itt NEOS, I always got the impression it was a lot more socially liberal than the very stuffy and businessman run FDP.

[bigic]

Itt NEOS, I always got the impression it was a lot more socially liberal than the very stuffy and businessman run FDP.

Why are balanced budgets a social issue?

[urutzizu]

Itt NEOS, I always got the impression it was a lot more socially liberal than the very stuffy and businessman run FDP.

You are generally right with that impression. Imo. they are closer towards the LibDems then the FDP. I think their support of this comes from a general anti-politician attitude. ÖVP/SPÖ politicians were generally known to be quite, er, "clientelistic" (to say the least) when it comes to public finances during the ages of Grand Coalition. Straightjacketing the "irresponsible politicians" is rather a popular theme, even among some economically left voters, see Tender.

[MaxQue]

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS have passed the constitutional deficit and debt brake (in US-terms: a balanced budget amendment) today in the final parliamentary session before the election, with 68% of the vote.

The law would require Austria to have balanced budgets from now on (a max. deficit of 0.45% of GDP is allowed in such events as natural disasters or recession).

This is only symbolic and meaningless though, because SPÖ+Greens will block it in the 2nd chamber of parliament, the chamber representing the states, where NEOS is not part of. Therefore, the Bundesrat has no 2/3 majority for ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS ...

Thank god for the Bundesrat!

I actually support the constitutional law, unlike the Greens.

We need to end the cult of indebting ourselves and instead find ways each year to keep the budget balanced. This is sustainable and responsible politics for future generations.

The other options in the long run are Greece or Venezuela ...

I hope you live in an apartment, because having a mortgage, a credit crd or any kind of deby would expose you as a massive hypocrite.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS have passed the constitutional deficit and debt brake (in US-terms: a balanced budget amendment) today in the final parliamentary session before the election, with 68% of the vote.

The law would require Austria to have balanced budgets from now on (a max. deficit of 0.45% of GDP is allowed in such events as natural disasters or recession).

This is only symbolic and meaningless though, because SPÖ+Greens will block it in the 2nd chamber of parliament, the chamber representing the states, where NEOS is not part of. Therefore, the Bundesrat has no 2/3 majority for ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS ...

Thank god for the Bundesrat!

I actually support the constitutional law, unlike the Greens.

We need to end the cult of indebting ourselves and instead find ways each year to keep the budget balanced. This is sustainable and responsible politics for future generations.

The other options in the long run are Greece or Venezuela ...

I hope you live in an apartment, because having a mortgage, a credit crd or any kind of deby would expose you as a massive hypocrite.

Apartment yes.

I never had any debts and I hope it stays that way.

Once you are indebted, you are a slave to others.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ has paid Norbert Hofer's garden fence for his private house in Burgenland, with taxpayer money:

https://orf.at/stories/3138669

The FPÖ says it was because of "security reasons" during his 2016 presidential run ...

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/lightyear2000/status/1177088910582845440

[Tender Branson]

In 30 minutes, the last and most important/most watched debate will start on ORF:

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/Wahl-Diskussion-19-SpitzenkandidatInnen/14032958

[Tender Branson]

Pretty good final debate.

No personal attacks this time, mostly conciliatory even, on topic and sometimes even funny.

Hofer attacked Greta Thunberg though:

„I’m against climate hysteria and her dictatorship of pigtails.“

[Tender Branson]

If you ask me, all these final polls look like herding - so the result on Sunday might look quite a bit different ... such as Pilz getting back in.

On the other hand, if there’s high turnout, polls also tend to be more accurate.

Also, we should get the number of requested postal ballots tonight.

I guess more than 1 million for the first time.