Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

In the 1st quarter of 2019, new asylum requests dropped by 30% compared with Q1, 2018:

Jan-March 2019: 2.881 new requests
Jan-March 2018: 4.050 new requests

The main countries of those with new requests are unchanged though:

* Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Russia (Chechnya).

While the number of new requests is still high (ca. 12.000 expected for the whole year), it could be for the first time that there will be more deportations this year than new requests, which is exactly what Austrians want.

Only if there are more deportations than new requests, will the massive stockpile of asylum seekers from recent years start to decline ...

The best thing would be if there are just 5.000 new asylum requests a year and 15.000 deportations. Then their stockpile would decline by about 10.000 per year.

We already have enough immigration from the EU and other countries anyway, excluding all the asylum requests.

At least the policies on asylum/immigration by the ÖVP/FPÖ government are heading in the right direction: finally working for the Austrian people and not for the pro-asylum/immigration lobby.

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5612466/Seit-Jahresbeginn_Die-Zahl-der-Asylantraege-in-Oesterreich-geht

[PSOL]

Austrian central bank says government threatens its financial independence

Conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s government, which includes the far-right Freedom Party, announced plans last year to reform banking supervision in Austria, which is currently split between the Financial Market Authority and the central bank.

It says the plan, which will shift 180 jobs to the FMA from the Austrian National Bank (ONB) and do away with one of the two FMA co-chiefs’ jobs, will make for a more streamlined structure and save money.

The central bank, however, said the plan would make banking supervision more complicated and expensive.

“It is to be feared that supervision costs in Austria will increase as a result of these new, complicated structures, taking into account in particular the creation of three new sections in the Finance Ministry,” the ONB said in a statement.

Rip Austria’s long-term growth and financial stability. I wonder though who will be the Austrian Herman Cain?

[Tender Branson]

Austrian central bank says government threatens its financial independence

Conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s government, which includes the far-right Freedom Party, announced plans last year to reform banking supervision in Austria, which is currently split between the Financial Market Authority and the central bank.

It says the plan, which will shift 180 jobs to the FMA from the Austrian National Bank (ONB) and do away with one of the two FMA co-chiefs’ jobs, will make for a more streamlined structure and save money.

The central bank, however, said the plan would make banking supervision more complicated and expensive.

“It is to be feared that supervision costs in Austria will increase as a result of these new, complicated structures, taking into account in particular the creation of three new sections in the Finance Ministry,” the ONB said in a statement.

Rip Austria’s long-term growth and financial stability. I wonder though who will be the Austrian Herman Cain?

It is no surprise that a new government tries to re-colour certain agencies with people from their side. Therefore a lot of agencies with SPÖ-members on them (from the SPÖVP coalition) are now replaced with more ÖVP-FPÖ people instead. If SPÖ people are removed, obviously the SPÖ will cry foul and fear for independence ...

But reading the article here, it seems more like a balanced mini-reform, rather than something big or controversial:

https://derstandard.at/2000101457521/Regierung-entfernt-bei-Umbau-der-Finanzmarktaufsicht-SP-nahen-Vorstand

Also, I don’t see Austria’s long term growth or financial stability threatened because of it. The biggest influence comes from Finance Minister Löger (ÖVP) and he’s doing a good job.

[Tender Branson]

Also, the Central Bank is „fuming“ and fearing for their independence, because they will have to pay a higher dividend to the state under the new government plans.

I don’t see anything bad here. It is better in my opinion to milk the central bank for more revenues rather than the taxpayers. If they optimize their investment strategy, everything should be OK ...

[Tender Branson]

Former ÖVP-leader Reinhold Mitterlehner is out with a new book in which he fully attacks current ÖVP-Chancellor Kurz and his rise to power and how he bullied out Mitterlehner as leader of the party.

Mitterlehner accuses Kurz of planning his rise to power for years already (no surprise) in a Macchiavellian way, full of intrigues against Mitterlehner and his people and says Kurz is a door-opener for the far-right populists:

[Tender Branson]

The Mitterlehner book is creating quite a headache for the ÖVP, as 2 other former party leaders and some governors had to come to the rescue of Kurz today:

https://orf.at/stories/3119125

I have always liked the good, old Mitty and his late revenge against Kurz and his folk just ahead of the EU elections is a welcome distraction from ÖVP-FPÖ's Machtrausch. Recently, it looked as if they could do whatever they want, but some checks and balances is definitely needed for them. That's why I also hope the SPÖ wins the EU elections, so that they have to step down from their high horse.

[Tender Branson]

For German-speakers (the battle between Mitterlehner and Kurz explained):

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/oesterreich-kurz-oevp-fpoe-1.4413232

https://derstandard.at/2000101625729/Die-Kurz-Frage

For Americans, the situation is comparable to Trump vs. Romney (and other Trump critics from within the GOP).

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ continues to push their pro-Austrians/anti-foreigner agenda ahead of the EU elections.

Just recently, the FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl (responsible for asylum) has announced that asylum seekers in basic government care (they get free housing, food and medical care from the state) will see a payment reduction for voluntary community service from the current 3-5€ per hour to 1.50€ per hour.



Kickl argues that this top-up "appreciation payment from our society to asylum seekers" is too high, considering that drafted army recruits get less than asylum seekers right now, when factoring in the free housing etc. for the asylum seekers and he wants to streamline the benefits.

The plans are very polarizing, with the FPÖ-base and ÖVP strongly supporting the measure - while the SPÖ+Green social ministers in the 9 states are opposed. The neutral Städtebund (association of Austrian cities) is also against, while the Gemeindebund (association of Austrian towns) is in favour.

As the Interior Minister has the power to enforce this new provision, the states will have to enforce them as well (but could sue). Would be bad on their part though, because it will be hard for them to argue to the voters why asylum seekers should get more compensation for community work than drafted recruits ...

https://orf.at/#/stories/3119455

In other news, the FPÖ (backed by the ÖVP) has unveiled a new law for "Austrians (... and EU-citizens) FIRST !" when applying for new housing/apartments.



Currently, Austrians + EU citizens + other foreigners have the same requirements when requesting for a city-funded new apartment with lower-than-average rent costs (Sozialbauwohnung).

FPÖ+ÖVP now want to give preference to Austrians + EU citizens who already lived in Austria for 5 years over those who just recently arrived in the country when applying for such a funded apartment.

Vienna and other big Austrian cities have a long tradition of cheap apartments for immigrants and working-class Austrians, going back to the early 1900s and Red Vienna. Just recently, the new Vienna mayor Michael Ludwig also announced that he favours such a policy of preference for Austrians and EU-citizens over newcomers.

https://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/oesterreicher-zuerst-im-sozialen-wohnbau/400470214

[Tender Branson]

After the actual 2018 budget surplus, ÖVP+FPÖ are submitting another planned budget surplus to Brussels next week for 2019 ("We will end the debt policy of the past.") and they also plan budget surpluses until 2023 already (which is 1 year into their planned 2nd term).

Also, the details of the 2020 tax cut for employees will be presented in the coming weeks, as both the 2020/2021 double budget and tax cut will be passed before summer:

https://derstandard.at/2000101809724/Regierung-plant-durchgehendes-Nulldefizit-bis-2023

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-leader Strache (or better, the aide responsible for his Facebook page) has linked to a highly anti-semitic website recently:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/strache-will-keine-seite-mit-rechtsradikalen-inhalten-geteilt-haben/400472920

[Tender Branson]

Ra(t)cist poem from someone in the Upper Austrian FPÖ creates controversy:

https://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2977414

Looks like the FPÖ is not giving up on their far-right wing to mobilize for the EU election, just because Kurz and Co. demand the party to de-radicalize while in government ...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

"Fascists will de-radicalize when faced with the responsibilities of sharing power" - they said, many times and in many places.

[Tender Branson]

Ra(t)cist poem from someone in the Upper Austrian FPÖ creates controversy:

https://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2977414

Looks like the FPÖ is not giving up on their far-right wing to mobilize for the EU election, just because Kurz and Co. demand the party to de-radicalize while in government ...

The FPÖ poet Schilcher announced his resignation today from the Braunau city council and from the party.

[Tender Branson]

Ra(t)cist poem from someone in the Upper Austrian FPÖ creates controversy:

https://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2977414

Looks like the FPÖ is not giving up on their far-right wing to mobilize for the EU election, just because Kurz and Co. demand the party to de-radicalize while in government ...

The FPÖ poet Schilcher announced his resignation today from the Braunau city council and from the party.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48031971

https://abcnews.go.com/International/poem-comparing-migrants-rats-draws-condemnation-austria/story?id=62573215

[Tender Branson]

"Fascists will de-radicalize when faced with the responsibilities of sharing power" - they said, many times and in many places.

Well, for the past half year at least, it looked as if the FPÖ had itself under control and no real controversial remarks surfaced.

[Tender Branson]

President Van der Bellen (Greens) has summoned FPÖ-leader Strache to his Hofburg office today, to lecture him about the recent string of anti-semitic and racist incidents in the FPÖ and how this reminds him of the "language of the Nazis", "a language of fear and hatred" and how they turned Austria into a "negative international spotlight" (there were articles in the BBC and NYT for example).

Strache told VdB that he will do "everything possible" to make sure "these incidents remain limited" and "fire" those responsible.

https://orf.at/stories/3119829

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ-Styria is out with a comic poster titled „Tradition beats Immigration“ and a blonde couple in traditional clothing surrounded by shady people (according to the FPÖ, Muslim extremists).

But the famous Austrian TV anchor on the public broadcaster ORF, Armin Wolf, took up the comic and put a picture of the Nazi „Stürmer“ propaganda newspaper next to it when interviewing the FPÖ frontrunner Vilimsky yesterday, showing men with a hooked nose on both of them. Vilimsky called the comparison by Wolf „outrageous“ and said Wolf „has to face consequences“ because of this comparison.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/experten-ueber-stuermer-vergleich-in-zib2-klarer-gehts-nicht/400475215

[Tender Branson]

Parliament has passed the welfare reform law today with the votes of ÖVP+FPÖ.

SPÖ+NEOS+NOW voted against.

The new law will see much lower welfare payments to foreigners with bad German skills (unless they award a passing certificate from a state-recognized language training group) and children-rich families, while single parents and the disabled will get more money.

The 9 states will be granted time until Jan. 1, 2020 to prepare for the new law.

https://orf.at/stories/3120006

[Tender Branson]

Interesting development ahead of the coming presentation of ÖVP+FPÖ's tax cut/reform plans:

Apparently, the government wants to cut taxes much more for working people with lower/middle-incomes, rather than cutting taxes for companies.

In total, the tax cut will be worth 5-6 billion € and the lion share will be for workers - with corporate tax cuts only making up several hundred million € (and even those mostly for small- and medium sized business and not large corporations). The early plans saw roughly a 50:50 tax cut for both workers and companies, now it will be more 95:5 for workers.

The tax brackets for workers will be re-structured to only 3 to make accounting for companies more easier and lessen the bureaucratic burden.

Big Business is not really amused with this development, but I guess the average employee will be happy about it ...

But even with the smaller-than-assumed corporate tax cuts, Austria's corporate tax rates will decline to ca. 23-24% from the current 25% - which is still lower than many other European countries:



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/industrie-geht-bei-entlastung-leer-aus-und-probt-den-aufstand/400476394

Also:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-austria-budget/austrias-debt-ratio-to-shrink-to-below-60-percent-by-2023-idUKKCN1S01L9

[Tender Branson]

After 2018, it seems that 2019 will see another budget surplus - based on the January-March numbers.

In the first 3 months, revenues are up by 8.3% while spending is down by 1.5%

Whereas the first 3 months of 2018 had a deficit of 2.4 billion €, this is down to 0.6 billion € this year.

Therefore, the budget surplus could be has high as 0.5-1.0% this year, after 0.1% last year.

https://www.bmf.gv.at/budget/das-budget/Monatsbericht_Maerz_2019_final.pdf

[Tender Branson]

A new "Profil" magazine poll shows that 49% of Austrians do not think the FPÖ is competent enough or suited to be a government party, while 40% think they are.

9/10 SPÖ-voters think the FPÖ is not competent enough, compared with 30% of ÖVP-voters.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190504_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-knapp-die-haelfte-der-oesterreicher-haelt-fpoe-fuer-nicht-regierungsfaehig

[Omega21]

A new "Profil" magazine poll shows that 49% of Austrians do not think the FPÖ is competent enough or suited to be a government party, while 40% think they are.

9/10 SPÖ-voters think the FPÖ is not competent enough, compared with 30% of ÖVP-voters.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190504_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-knapp-die-haelfte-der-oesterreicher-haelt-fpoe-fuer-nicht-regierungsfaehig

Well yeah, since, unlike their name, the Socialists don't really attract workers, but hip city/upper middle-class people, as I'm sure most of the lower middle class is satisfied with the Reforms being worked on, so I doubt they would write them off so quickly.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+FPÖ will finally pass the elementary school headscarf ban into law today, after it was delayed by SPÖ and NEOS for 2 times.

ÖVP+FPÖ wanted a constitutional majority, but SPÖ and NEOS were opposed. It remains to be seen if they will vote with the government today (probably not).



Still, more than 80% of Austrians favour the ban as part of fighting political Islam in the country (and even want it extended to all school forms up to 18 years).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/dritter-anlauf-fuer-kopftuchverbot-an-volksschulen/400487491

[Tender Branson]

Today, at a commemoration for the end of WW2, President Van der Bellen (Greens) strongly attacked the FPÖ and Strache for the use of the word "population replacement" in recent days.

Strache has repeatedly used the word recently and defended it, saying that the far-right Identitarians merely adopted the word from the FPÖ, instead of vice-versa (the FPÖ indeed used the word before them under the term Umvolkung).

VdB said that the terms population replacement and Umvolkung remind him of the German Volksgemeinschaft under the Nazis and that he doesn't want to live in such an ethnic 100% homogenous society and that achieving it today would only be possible by force (like the Nazis did). And this is highly dangerous, VdB said, because the choice of words could also lead to violence again.

https://orf.at/stories/3121439

I'm not completely sure if VdB is correct here: you can also make the population of a country more homogenous again, without force. By limiting further immigration, more deportations of criminal and rejected asylum seekers/foreigners and by promoting higher birth rates among the population.

[Tender Branson]

Well, apparently the FPÖ chief and vice chancellor HC Strache has been caught on tape offering government Contracts in exchange for Donations.
I wonder whether this might cause the fall of the Goverment..

I just came home and read about this „It’s a trap !“ video.

This video, showing Strache and Vienna Vice-mayor Gudenus on Ibiza in a staged apartment meeting with an actress playing a wealthy, young female Russian investor is absolutely brutal.

I don’t see how Strache can survive this ... (unless the FPÖ tries to sit things out and waits what the upcoming corruption probe of the state prosecution will show).

Also, President Van der Bellen could ask for Strache‘s resignation as Vice-Chancellor and Sports and Civil Servants Minister ...