Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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  Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Sept. 29 federal election ?
#1
ÖVP
 
#2
SPÖ
 
#3
FPÖ
 
#4
NEOS
 
#5
NOW
 
#6
Greens
 
#7
KPÖ
 
#8
Change
 
#9
A regional party
 
#10
Invalid/Blank
 
#11
I wouldn't vote
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 110

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)  (Read 141921 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #200 on: May 18, 2019, 06:31:56 AM »

Another thing that has been brought up on Social Media:

Considering how foreign international media (and for the trap video, probably foreign intelligence services) collaborated and conspired to take Strache down, what about the death of former FPÖ-leader Jörg Haider in retrospect ?

Do we still believe that he died in a car "accident", or did foreign powers indeed had something to do with it - manipulating his car/drinks - before he had the car crash, as was suspected in conspiracy theories ?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #201 on: May 18, 2019, 06:32:14 AM »

How about a coalition with SPO?  I know idea may sound silly as per other mentions but that would actually kill any chances of them winning next time.  Every time left wing parties are junior partners to right wing ones always pay big time next election.  Think SPD in Germany, Labour in Netherlands and Ireland, Liberal Democrats in UK, Greens in Ireland and Czech Republic.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #202 on: May 18, 2019, 06:34:23 AM »

How about a coalition with SPO?  I know idea may sound silly as per other mentions but that would actually kill any chances of them winning next time.  Every time left wing parties are junior partners to right wing ones always pay big time next election.  Think SPD in Germany, Labour in Netherlands and Ireland, Liberal Democrats in UK, Greens in Ireland and Czech Republic.

Nope.

Kurz doesn't like the SPÖ in its current form and ÖVP-NEOS-(Greens) is much less trouble, especially if the ÖVP gets 40%+ in the fall.
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Omega21
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« Reply #203 on: May 18, 2019, 06:37:26 AM »

Another thing that has been brought up on Social Media:

Considering how foreign international media (and for the trap video, probably foreign intelligence services) collaborated and conspired to take Strache down, what about the death of former FPÖ-leader Jörg Haider in retrospect ?

Do we still believe that he died in a car "accident", or did foreign powers indeed had something to do with it - manipulating his car/drinks - before he had the car crash, as was suspected in conspiracy theories ?

Definitely no accident.

Both were taken down, but at least Strache had the ability to avoid it, too bad he didn't...

Dying in a land yacht (the Paethon is an equivalent to the Audi A8) and being recorded by actors who sat on it for 2 years?

Sure smells like a conspiracy to me.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #204 on: May 18, 2019, 06:42:16 AM »

How about a coalition with SPO?  I know idea may sound silly as per other mentions but that would actually kill any chances of them winning next time.  Every time left wing parties are junior partners to right wing ones always pay big time next election.  Think SPD in Germany, Labour in Netherlands and Ireland, Liberal Democrats in UK, Greens in Ireland and Czech Republic.

Nope.

Kurz doesn't like the SPÖ in its current form and ÖVP-NEOS-(Greens) is much less trouble, especially if the ÖVP gets 40%+ in the fall.

I actually think that FPO has a strong enough base of support to avoid totally imploding, and that base is not easily transferable to the OVP in any case. So 40+ percent for the OVP seems a little optimistic. But they may indeed do well enough to net a majority together with NEOS and the grunes.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #205 on: May 18, 2019, 06:42:30 AM »

Why not simply keep the coalition with the FPÖ?

Calling an election is a very risky move (see: Theresa May). It's not a given that all those FPÖ voters will go en masse to the ÖVP, they could just abstain or even go to the SPÖ!

Sidenote: If there actually is an election, is there any chance of a SPÖ led government that isn't a grand coalition? Say SPÖ-Greens-NEOS?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #206 on: May 18, 2019, 06:45:03 AM »

Chancellor Kurz's press statement is being delayed (was planned for 2pm, which is in 15 minutes).

The "Standard" reports that Kurz might continue with the FPÖ as government member if he can also force FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl to resign today. With Strache, Gudenus and Kickl, all the FPÖ's (most) controversial people would be out of the government.

But if I were Kurz, I would still opt for new elections ...
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #207 on: May 18, 2019, 06:45:05 AM »

The beautiful thing about right wing conspiratorialism is that it is literally right out of the Kremlin's rhetorical playbook. The only thing missing is the Russian accent.

In any case, this is a great day for Austria. I'm not a big Kurz fan but I think he could actually do quite well once unshackled from the far right.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #208 on: May 18, 2019, 06:46:14 AM »

Why not simply keep the coalition with the FPÖ?

Calling an election is a very risky move (see: Theresa May). It's not a given that all those FPÖ voters will go en masse to the ÖVP, they could just abstain or even go to the SPÖ!

Sidenote: If there actually is an election, is there any chance of a SPÖ led government that isn't a grand coalition? Say SPÖ-Greens-NEOS?

Based on polls to date seems very unlikely.  It would require a pretty seismic shift which I don't see happening.
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Omega21
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« Reply #209 on: May 18, 2019, 06:46:55 AM »

Chancellor Kurz's press statement is being delayed (was planned for 2pm, which is in 15 minutes).

The "Standard" reports that Kurz might continue with the FPÖ as government member if he can also force FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl to resign today. With Strache, Gudenus and Kickl, all the FPÖ's (most) controversial people would be out of the government.

But if I were Kurz, I would still opt for new elections ...

Do you think Kurz could get the same things passed (in terms of migration and benefits) with the Greens?

No chance in hell, the coalition would implode.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #210 on: May 18, 2019, 06:51:31 AM »

Chancellor Kurz's press statement is being delayed (was planned for 2pm, which is in 15 minutes).

The "Standard" reports that Kurz might continue with the FPÖ as government member if he can also force FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl to resign today. With Strache, Gudenus and Kickl, all the FPÖ's (most) controversial people would be out of the government.

But if I were Kurz, I would still opt for new elections ...

Do you think Kurz could get the same things passed (in terms of migration and benefits) with the Greens?

No chance in hell, the coalition would implode.

Yeah, somehow I will miss the ÖVP-FPÖ government's steady work on the topic of immigration.

Just recently, they passed the headscarf ban in elementary schools (after it was passed for kindergartens already) and Kickl was in the process of streamlining the asylum system in Austria and to put it fully under government oversight, rather than the current system being run by the state and (heavily pro-immigration) charities and NGOs. Deportations of criminal and rejected foreigners are up, new asylum requests down a lot.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #211 on: May 18, 2019, 06:52:08 AM »

Why not simply keep the coalition with the FPÖ?

Calling an election is a very risky move (see: Theresa May). It's not a given that all those FPÖ voters will go en masse to the ÖVP, they could just abstain or even go to the SPÖ!

Sidenote: If there actually is an election, is there any chance of a SPÖ led government that isn't a grand coalition? Say SPÖ-Greens-NEOS?

I think it's pretty clear that the FPO is a sinking ship. Their polling has been declining for a while. Obviously this won't help. Why tie to yourself to a dumpster fire when you don't have to?

A new election definitely could go a bit haywire and end up with ab SPO PM. But I think the odds are pretty clearly with OVP staying on top. When it's either the dysfunction and now corruption of the far right or new elections with decent odds, I think it's obvious that you take the new elections even though in theory you might lose them.
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Omega21
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« Reply #212 on: May 18, 2019, 06:55:44 AM »

Chancellor Kurz's press statement is being delayed (was planned for 2pm, which is in 15 minutes).

The "Standard" reports that Kurz might continue with the FPÖ as government member if he can also force FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl to resign today. With Strache, Gudenus and Kickl, all the FPÖ's (most) controversial people would be out of the government.

But if I were Kurz, I would still opt for new elections ...

Do you think Kurz could get the same things passed (in terms of migration and benefits) with the Greens?

No chance in hell, the coalition would implode.

Yeah, somehow I will miss the ÖVP-FPÖ government's steady work on the topic of immigration.

Just recently, they passed the headscarf ban in elementary schools (after it was passed for kindergartens already) and Kickl was in the process of streamlining the asylum system in Austria and to put it fully under government oversight, rather than the current system being run by the state and (heavily pro-immigration) charities and NGOs. Deportations of criminal and rejected foreigners are up, new asylum requests down a lot.

Yeah, my wish would be a full cleanup (Strache, Gudenus and Kickl), and a stable coalition with Hofer.

I'm sad to see Strache go, but he brought it upon himself, unfortunately.

At least it shows that Austria has some standards, unlike certain other countries where you get rewarded for breaking the law. *cough Hillary*
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DavidB.
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« Reply #213 on: May 18, 2019, 06:59:33 AM »

Strache and Gudenus absolutely need to go. But there is no reason to force out Kickl, right? He isn't implicated in the scandal.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #214 on: May 18, 2019, 07:01:23 AM »

I think if Kurz somehow wants to continue with the FPÖ, he also has to demand a 100% de-Russification from the new leadership. Which means terminating the contract by the FPÖ with the Putin-party and a full oversight of the FPÖ finances by the Austrian Court of Audit and make them sign a document to uphold press freedom in Austria 100%.
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Omega21
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« Reply #215 on: May 18, 2019, 07:02:11 AM »

Strache and Gudenus absolutely need to go. But there is no reason to force out Kickl, right? He isn't implicated in the scandal.

Yeah, he's not at fault, but Kurz needs to justify the continuation of the coalition, and if he kicks out all of the members who had controversies tied to them (Kickl had a few), he won't take a lot of flak...

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DavidB.
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« Reply #216 on: May 18, 2019, 07:06:50 AM »

Yeah, all of this will probably happen. Kickl will be forced out, the FPÖ will be forced to be completely emasculated and will have to accept the dominance of the liberal progressive establishment. An expensive and painful lesson for all right-wingers all across the continent: one mistake (which was inexcusable, no misconceptions about it) can be the downfall of your entire project. Meanwhile the high-speed train towards liberal dictatorship only accelerates. This was one of the few non-post-Communist countries for which I still had high hopes. But at this point I'm not so sure anymore.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #217 on: May 18, 2019, 07:10:41 AM »

Strache and Gudenus absolutely need to go. But there is no reason to force out Kickl, right? He isn't implicated in the scandal.

Yeah, he's not at fault, but Kurz needs to justify the continuation of the coalition, and if he kicks out all of the members who had controversies tied to them (Kickl had a few), he won't take a lot of flak...

The only FPÖ-cabinet members I see as tolerable to remain in a continued government are:

* Norbert Hofer (has done a good job as infrastructure minister and unveiled incentives for e-mobility and renewable energy and almost had 50% as a Presidential candidate, so he's vital for the FPÖ's future chances)

* Mario Kunasek (does an acceptable job as Defense Minister, without controversies)

* Hubert Fuchs (is actually not an FPÖ-member, was appointed by the FPÖ as State Secretary for Finance and is an expert on tax issues and how to weed out silly regulations and a data nerd)

---

On the other hand, Kickl (Interior), Kneissl (Foreign Minister, danced with Putin at her wedding and bowed to him) and Hartinger-Klein (Health) are all troublesome and scandal-prone.
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Omega21
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« Reply #218 on: May 18, 2019, 07:14:59 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2019, 07:19:39 AM by Omega21 »

Strache and Gudenus absolutely need to go. But there is no reason to force out Kickl, right? He isn't implicated in the scandal.

Yeah, he's not at fault, but Kurz needs to justify the continuation of the coalition, and if he kicks out all of the members who had controversies tied to them (Kickl had a few), he won't take a lot of flak...

The only FPÖ-cabinet members I see as tolerable to remain in a continued government are:

* Norbert Hofer (has done a good job as infrastructure minister and unveiled incentives for e-mobility and renewable energy and almost had 50% as a Presidential candidate, so he's vital for the FPÖ's future chances)

* Mario Kunasek (does an acceptable job as Defense Minister, without controversies)

* Hubert Fuchs (is actually not an FPÖ-member, was appointed by the FPÖ as State Secretary for Finance and is an expert on tax issues and how to weed out silly regulations and a data nerd)

---

On the other hand, Kickl (Interior), Kneissl (Foreign Minister, danced with Putin at her wedding and bowed to him) and Hartinger-Klein (Health) are all troublesome and scandal-prone.

I don't really agree with Kneissl and Klein, because they are not that controversial...

Kneissl did nothing wrong except having a good relationship with Russia, and Klein, well, you can't really be that controversial as Health minister lol...

Yeah, all of this will probably happen. Kickl will be forced out, the FPÖ will be forced to be completely emasculated and will have to accept the dominance of the liberal progressive establishment. An expensive and painful lesson for all right-wingers all across the continent: one mistake (which was inexcusable, no misconceptions about it) can be the downfall of your entire project. Meanwhile the high-speed train towards liberal dictatorship only accelerates. This was one of the few non-post-Communist countries for which I still had high hopes. But at this point I'm not so sure anymore.

Hopefully, others will learn from his mistakes so that no future right-wing parties are destroyed the same way.

I'm sure FvD will become a target very soon, if not already.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #219 on: May 18, 2019, 07:18:03 AM »

Julia Herr (Socialist Youth leader) and the SPÖ are mobilizing in front of Strache's office in Vienna right now:



Herr protesting against ÖVP-FPÖ behind Kurz at a concentration camp recently:



https://www.instagram.com/_frau_herr_/
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windjammer
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« Reply #220 on: May 18, 2019, 07:27:48 AM »

Julia Herr (Socialist Youth leader) and the SPÖ are mobilizing in front of Strache's office in Vienna right now:



Herr protesting against ÖVP-FPÖ behind Kurz at a concentration camp recently:



https://www.instagram.com/_frau_herr_/
Are there a lot of people demonstrating across Austria right now?

I would be surprised if that would be the case.
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Omega21
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« Reply #221 on: May 18, 2019, 07:38:20 AM »

In the video, there is also talk of "Kurz's sex orgies"

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Neues-brisantes-Video-aufgetaucht-Strache-spricht-ueber-Sex-Orgien-von-Kurz/380589584

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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #222 on: May 18, 2019, 07:53:16 AM »

Other than the sensationalist sex stuff, I wonder if this could somehow blow up and envelope the OVP as well. That's probably the most obvious reason why Kurtz would call new elections. He really does need to get in front of this and put a lot of distance between the story and his government. It's hard to do that in partnership with the party that caused all of this.
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Omega21
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« Reply #223 on: May 18, 2019, 08:00:53 AM »

Other than the sensationalist sex stuff, I wonder if this could somehow blow up and envelope the OVP as well. That's probably the most obvious reason why Kurtz would call new elections. He really does need to get in front of this and put a lot of distance between the story and his government. It's hard to do that in partnership with the party that caused all of this.

Nah, Kurz can only gain from mad Strache voters. At the time of recording, they were not partners, and plus, such dirty campaigning is known to be used across Austria's left.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silberstein-Aff%C3%A4re

(Just right click and translate to English, sadly I don't think there is an English version)
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #224 on: May 18, 2019, 08:03:58 AM »

All happening today, just watching the end of the election results in Australia!

Tender thanks for all the updates and a question for you, why would Kurz hold off holding the election until Sep/Oct if he collapses the coalition, isn't that a bit risky?

Why not hold the election in late June or is that too tight a timetable under Austrian election law?

Vielen dank,

DC
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