Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[rob in cal]

   If Kurz feels this should derail the coalition, why go for new elections, why not try to create a new coalition with the current parliament? Seems like a huge waste of time and effort and resources.

[Tender Branson]

  If Kurz feels this should derail the coalition, why go for new elections, why not try to create a new coalition with the current parliament? Seems like a huge waste of time and effort and resources.

Back from barbecue.

Because SPÖ, NEOS, Now have all said they won't work with Kurz (at least not until new elections are held).

Kurz statement now planned in ca. 30 minutes.

President Van der Bellen will speak about an hour later.

Under Austrian law, the Chancellor can dismiss a cabinet member and ask the President to sign it off. The dismissal handshake between VdB and Strache should be sweet.

[Tender Branson]

According to all media reports, new elections in the fall are about 99% certain.

The FPÖ is not willing to sacrifice Interior Minister Kickl as well today for a resignation, as Kurz demands.

Therefore, it seems Kurz will announce the breakup of ÖVP-FPÖ in half an hour.

[Middle-aged Europe]

and with new elections the question is, what if the results are fairly similar to the last ones?

As Tender said, Greens Neos and Kurz is most likely.

This somehow reminds me of Hamburg, ca. 2004. Von Beust fired Schill (although a video of Schill consuming cocaine in Brazil wouldn't emerge until many years later ), the coalition broke apart, there was a snap election, and the first CDU-Green coalition on the state level was subsequently formed.

[Omega21]

  If Kurz feels this should derail the coalition, why go for new elections, why not try to create a new coalition with the current parliament? Seems like a huge waste of time and effort and resources.

Back from barbecue.

Because SPÖ, NEOS, Now have all said they won't work with Kurz (at least not until new elections are held).

Kurz statement now planned in ca. 30 minutes.

President Van der Bellen will speak about an hour later.

Under Austrian law, the Chancellor can dismiss a cabinet member and ask the President to sign it off. The dismissal handshake between VdB and Strache should be sweet.

Don't you fear a Green Red Pink government?

I don't think you will like their open door/money for all policies...

[Tender Branson]

  If Kurz feels this should derail the coalition, why go for new elections, why not try to create a new coalition with the current parliament? Seems like a huge waste of time and effort and resources.

Back from barbecue.

Because SPÖ, NEOS, Now have all said they won't work with Kurz (at least not until new elections are held).

Kurz statement now planned in ca. 30 minutes.

President Van der Bellen will speak about an hour later.

Under Austrian law, the Chancellor can dismiss a cabinet member and ask the President to sign it off. The dismissal handshake between VdB and Strache should be sweet.

Don't you fear a Green Red Pink government?

I don't think you will like their open door/money for all policies...

I think Red+Green+Pink will not get a majority.

And while the SPÖ and Green immigration policy is troubling (with ÖVP+FPÖ, a sense of normality returned to the country on that issue), NEOS would serve as a corrective in such a government, so that mostly skilled people can come to the country and not a lot of money is spent on immigration and welfare.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What kind of people are they? Do you believe Europe's mainstream parties are beacons of integrity?

#BothSides

[Tender Branson]

Here you can watch Chancellor Kurz's statement in ca. 10 minutes:

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/Statement-von-Bundeskanzler-Sebastian-Kurz-OeVP-zur-Regierungskrise/14015119

[Walmart_shopper]

Why wouldn't Kurz just go back to an emaciated but possibly cleansed FPO after the new elections? Why would he instinctively pivot left to the greens when pivoting right comes so easily to him?

[Tender Branson]

Why wouldn't Kurz just go back to an emaciated but possibly cleansed FPO after the new elections? Why would he instinctively pivot left to the greens when pivoting right comes so easily to him?

I guess we cannot rule it out, but he probably doesn't want to make the same mistake again (the FPÖ will very likely never be "cleansed", there will always be so-called "unique cases" of anti-semitism etc.)

A strengthened ÖVP and Kurz with 40%+ would have a very easy time with the Greens and NEOS at around 8-10% each. See Salzburg state elections last year and aftermath. That government here now enjoys 75-80% approval ratings.

[Walmart_shopper]

Why wouldn't Kurz just go back to an emaciated but possibly cleansed FPO after the new elections? Why would he instinctively pivot left to the greens when pivoting right comes so easily to him?

I guess we cannot rule it out, but he probably doesn't want to make the same mistake again (the FPÖ will very likely never be "cleansed", there will always be so-called "unique cases" of anti-semitism etc.)

A strengthened ÖVP and Kurz with 40%+ would have a very easy time with the Greens and NEOS at around 8-10% each. See Salzburg state elections last year and aftermath. That government here now enjoys 75-80% approval ratings.

The FPO is kind of like the hot stove that you kind of compulsively continue touching. At some point normal people, and so normal countries, stop touching. But the fact that Austrian leaders keep going back to the FPO despite getting burned does beg some uncomfortable questions about the nature of Austrian democracy.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Kurz cancels the ÖVP-FPÖ-coalition.
So there is a snap election.

President Van der Bellen plans to speak at 8.35pm.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Kurz: "enough is enough"

[Middle-aged Europe]

Good, it's done.

[Tender Branson]

Very good (campaign) speech by Kurz.

He said he was proud of their work so far, after years of "stagnation" and "unwillingness to work for the country".

But was ashamed of the constant "unique cases of anti-semitism, the rat-poem and the video yesterday. The FPÖ is hurting our reform project for the country."

Continuing the government with the FPÖ "is not possible right now, as he sees no intention after talks with key FPÖ people today that they would change their behaviour on Russia and anti-semitism over the next weeks or months."

He "asks every voter to join him in the next months to continue the centrist work for the country that the ÖVP has initiated."

"Enough is enough. New elections as soon as possible." (that will be mid-September)

[Walmart_shopper]

Good, it's done.

The second shortest government in post war history still lasted far too long. At least this should bury the FPO for another decade until it finds it way back into government.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, I'm so excited now for the 1st couple polls for the EU election and the upcoming federal election in September ...

I guess the FPÖ drops to 8-14% in the next few polls (which will be the EU result for them), but recovers slightly to ~15% for the more important federal election then.

ÖVP/Kurz will gain most out of their downfall, but also the other parties somewhat.

[Tender Branson]

NYT:

"Austrian Leader Calls for Snap Election After Far-Right Vice-Chancellor Resigns."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/18/world/europe/austria-strache-resigns-video.html

"Highlights From the Video That Brought Down Austria’s Vice-Chancellor."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/18/world/europe/austria-video-strache.html

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the next polls that will be released:

40-42% ÖVP (+7)
29-31% SPÖ (+3)
10-12% FPÖ (-12)
  8-10% NEOS (+1)
    5-7% Greens (n.c.)
    0-2% NOW (n.c.)
    1-3% Others (+1)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Well, a move I appreciate from Kurz. He seems like a good dude for a center-right politician.

[Mike88]

Didn't a similar situation happened in 2002? FPO colapse followed by a huge win of OVP?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Didn't a similar situation happened in 2002? FPO colapse followed by a huge win of OVP?

There certainly have been a lot of comparisons to that in Austrian media this evening. (Just watched two hours of ORF live stream.)

[Tender Branson]

You certainly have to credit Kurz for the swift actions and his decision to terminate the coalition that he was so proud of.

When he took office (and he repeated it in his speech today), he said: „I will stay true to myself and the voters.“

Which he did today, acknowledging that he didn’t break up the coalition earlier when the FPÖ fu**ed up time and time again, to give them a chance to prevail themselves - as they were the only coalition partner for the ÖVP after the election.

[Tender Branson]

With Kurz and Hofer leading their parties into the new elections, they could be challenged by 4 female opposition leaders:

Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
Nina Tomaselli (Greens)
Maria Stern (Now)

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact:

In the 1999 election, turnout was 80.4% - but in the early 2002 ÖVP landslide after the FPÖ collapse then, it increased to 84.3%

I wonder if this will be the case in the fall as well (turnout was 80% in 2017) ...