Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Regarding the question who was behind honey-trapping Strache and filming the video, the FPÖ today originated the conspiracy theory that a foreign intelligence agency may have orchestrated it.

But there may be a far more mundane explanation. Currently, the person who is confirmed to have had the earliest knowledge of the video's existence is German satirist Jan Böhmermann, whose awareness of the video apparently preceded that SPIEGEL's and the Süddeutsche Zeitung's (who broke the story yesterday) by at least several weeks.

Of course, the easiest explanation for Böhmermann being aware of the video's existence prior to the news organizations who broke story is that Böhmermann himself was the orchestrator of the whole thing. A not totally outlandish theory considering that he was also the originator of the "Varoufakis fake middle finger video" a couple of years ago, something that he only admitted to sometime after the fact.

Add to that the very recent Böhmermann interview in Austrian television in which he harshly criticized the Austrian government and which caused a minor scandal in itself (the ORF thought it prudent to explicitly distance itself from Böhmermann's remarks). Add to that Böhmermann singlehandedly brought down Germany's law that forbids insulting foreign leaders after deliberating insulting Erdogan in his television show.

Personally, I would characterize Böhmermann as an egocentric jackass with an IQ of at least 140 who never plays by the rules (or laws for that matter), so it's certainly possible that he did it. It would fit his modus operandi, so to speak.

[Tender Branson]

It is certainly possible that Böhmermann is behind it ... but he should probably not confirm it (if he doesn’t want to end up as a corpse in a trash can, being put down by a Russian or Bosnian hitman hired by Strache or Gudenus (Gudenus studied in Russia and his wife is Bosnian) ...

[Lechasseur]

When will the next election be?

[Omega21]

It is certainly possible that Böhmermann is behind it ... but he should probably not confirm it (if he doesn’t want to end up as a corpse in a trash can, being put down by a Russian or Bosnian Serbian hitman hired by Strache or Gudenus (Gudenus studied in Russia and his wife is Bosnian Serbian ) ...

Bosnian means someone from Bosnia, which includes Bosniaks, who are Muslims and not big fans of him, so I'll correct it for you.

Hope they don't escalate this further. Gudenus and Strache made their own beds, so they shouldn't make things worse.

[pilskonzept]

It is certainly possible that Böhmermann is behind it ... but he should probably not confirm it (if he doesn’t want to end up as a corpse in a trash can, being put down by a Russian or Bosnian Serbian hitman hired by Strache or Gudenus (Gudenus studied in Russia and his wife is Bosnian Serbian ) ...

Bosnian means someone from Bosnia, which includes Bosniaks, who are Muslims and not big fans of him, so I'll correct it for you.

Hope they don't escalate this further. Gudenus and Strache made their own beds, so they shouldn't make things worse.

Gudenus' wife is Bosnian Serb, but yes, the FPÖ's loss of power runs against Serbian interests.

As to the Russians...I guess they are as likely to take out Strache and Gudenus for getting caught? Would be a very different thing if Böhmermann was Russian or ex-Soviet and thus seen as a traitor.

[windjammer]

And btw,
is Kurz gay and participates to orgies like Strache claimed?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

And btw,
is Kurz gay and participates to orgies like Strache claimed?

wha?

[Omega21]

It is certainly possible that Böhmermann is behind it ... but he should probably not confirm it (if he doesn’t want to end up as a corpse in a trash can, being put down by a Russian or Bosnian Serbian hitman hired by Strache or Gudenus (Gudenus studied in Russia and his wife is Bosnian Serbian ) ...

Bosnian means someone from Bosnia, which includes Bosniaks, who are Muslims and not big fans of him, so I'll correct it for you.

Hope they don't escalate this further. Gudenus and Strache made their own beds, so they shouldn't make things worse.

Gudenus' wife is Bosnian Serb, but yes, the FPÖ's loss of power runs against Serbian interests.

As to the Russians...I guess they are as likely to take out Strache and Gudenus for getting caught? Would be a very different thing if Böhmermann was Russian or ex-Soviet and thus seen as a traitor.

The people in the video are actors, not oligarchs, and the villa was rented on Airbnb. (not some conspiracy, it was already in the original article that published it).  

So, someone hired actors, rented the cars and the villa, and set the whole thing up, which would not be good for that person's health if Russia is interested enough in finding out who smeared a Russian friendly party.

[Tender Branson]

When will the next election be?

The most likely date for the new election is Sept. 20 - a date which would be after the summer vacation, but not too late.

And it is the date of the Vorarlberg state election, so the 2 elections could be merged (Vorarlberg Governor Wallner yesterday said he thinks that would be OK).

[Tender Branson]

The 3 important state elections planned for 2020 (Vienna, Steiermark and Burgenland) could all be moved up to the fall of this year now, because the SPÖ could take advantage of the collapsing FPÖ in Vienna and Burgenland and the ÖVP in Steiermark.

So, 2019 could end up as a Super Election Year (1x EU, 1x Federal, 4x State Elections) ...

[rob in cal]

   Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway. 
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

[Tender Branson]

   Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway. 
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

[Lord Halifax]

   Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway. 
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

Why are the Greens against direct democracy?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

   Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway. 
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

Why are the Greens against direct democracy?

because it hurts them, direct democracy often leads to populism and referendums where people reject the establishment.

[pilskonzept]

The people in the video are actors, not oligarchs, and the villa was rented on Airbnb. (not some conspiracy, it was already in the original article that published it).  

So, someone hired actors, rented the cars and the villa, and set the whole thing up, which would not be good for that person's health if Russia is interested enough in finding out who smeared a Russian friendly party.

Affecting western citizens' physical health - as opposed to destroying their reputation or career - does not fit the Russian services' MO. Collateral damage excluded, of course.

[Lechasseur]

  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The ÖVP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the ÖVP doesn't win a majority by itself à la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FPÖ after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SPÖ, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for ÖVP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FPÖ and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

[Former President tack50]

With the Greens sure, but an ÖVP-NEOS coalition I think wouldn't hurt the ÖVP that much, just like CDU-FDP didn't hurt the CDU that much while the endless CDU-SPD coalitions did

[Lechasseur]

With the Greens sure, but an ÖVP-NEOS coalition I think wouldn't hurt the ÖVP that much, just like CDU-FDP didn't hurt the CDU that much while the endless CDU-SPD coalitions did

Agreed, I was more thinking about entering coalition with the GREENS in particular. OVP/NEOS would be fine, but OVP/Greens I think would lead to a meltdown for the Greens and would have the OVP finish 3rd behind the SPO and the FPO in 2024 (or whenever the next election after 2019 would take place), nobody would like that type of coalition.

[Omega21]

Russian Businessman/Oligarch, Igor Makarov, announced he will use all possible legal options to shed light on the woman who used his name falsely (posing as his niece).

I assume she is already somewhere in the Western sphere of Influence, as going back to Russia would not be a very smart move.

[Tender Branson]

  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The ÖVP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the ÖVP doesn't win a majority by itself à la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FPÖ after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SPÖ, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for ÖVP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FPÖ and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

Kurz could definitely go for ÖVP-NEOS-Greens.

That's because we will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FPÖ over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating ÖVP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as ÖVP-FPÖ.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Also the current Landeshauptmann of the Burgenland, Doskozil (SPÖ), calls for a snap election. 
Actual there is a SPÖ-FPÖ-coalition.

[Tender Branson]

Also the current Landeshauptmann of the Burgenland, Doskozil (SPÖ), calls for a snap election. 
Actual there is a SPÖ-FPÖ-coalition.

The date will be announced tomorrow. Probably in January 2020, instead of the regular May 2020.

[Omega21]

So, we can kiss direct democracy goodbye?

[Tender Branson]

So, we can kiss direct democracy goodbye?

As I explained to rob in cal, this was always more of a background issue for ÖVP/FPÖ and was only on the table for 2022 + with high hurdles of 900.000 signatures to force a referendum.

[Tender Branson]

More pictures from the SPÖ's demo event in front of Strache's office: