Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Lechasseur]

  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The ÖVP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the ÖVP doesn't win a majority by itself à la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FPÖ after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SPÖ, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for ÖVP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FPÖ and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

Kurz could definitely go for ÖVP-NEOS-Greens.

That's because we will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FPÖ over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating ÖVP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as ÖVP-FPÖ.

Sounds like the ÖVP is no better than the German CDU after all.

I'm back on the FPÖ train then.

[rob in cal]

  I"m still intrigued about the FPO under Hofer, and thinking he might be able to right the ship, and if he does, Kurz's vision of an OVP with near 40% of the vote is not happening.  Maybe I'm thinking too much about his solid performance as Presidential candidate in 2016.

[Omega21]

  I"m still intrigued about the FPO under Hofer, and thinking he might be able to right the ship, and if he does, Kurz's vision of an OVP with near 40% of the vote is not happening.  Maybe I'm thinking too much about his solid performance as Presidential candidate in 2016.

He is considered very calm and "moderate", and he's had very few (probably none at all?) controversies, so yes, he would definitely be better than Kickl.

  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The ÖVP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the ÖVP doesn't win a majority by itself à la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FPÖ after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SPÖ, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for ÖVP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FPÖ and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

Kurz could definitely go for ÖVP-NEOS-Greens.

That's because we will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FPÖ over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating ÖVP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as ÖVP-FPÖ.

Sounds like the ÖVP is no better than the German CDU after all.

I'm back on the FPÖ train then.

And yes, I also agree.

Hopefully, Hofer can bring some change to the FPÖ to clear their name.

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer elected new FPÖ-leader in a secret party meeting tonight (unanimously).

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/palpet99/status/1130100124162633730

[Tender Branson]

Kurz to ask VdB (today, or in the next days) to dismiss Kickl as FPÖ-Interior Minister.

VdB agrees that Kickl has to go.

If that happens, Hofer has said that all FPÖ cabinet members will resign ...

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/herbert-kickl-steht-vor-vorzeitiger-abloese-als-innenminister/400499266

I think we can say now that another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition after the September election is DOA.

[bigic]

It would be a minority caretaker ÖVP gov't?

[rob in cal]

  It seems as if Kurz was set on the OVP retaking the interior ministry no matter what, even if Kickl resigned he would not have allowed a new FPO member taking over, if what I read in some of the reporting is correct.  This implies that Kurz was intending the Strache affair as a justification for a major shakeup in the coalition, as control of the interior ministry was the key point for the FPO in the first place.
   

[Sir Mohamed]

What's the best likely govt outcome after the election? Another OVP and FPO coalition with the latter in a weaker position? From what I've read, Strache is a traitor. But claims to be a patriot, just LOL.

[Keep Calm and ...]

First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

[windjammer]

First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

Exactly what I expected, FPO between 15% and 20%

[urutzizu]

First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FPÖ voters seem to be very loyal...

[windjammer]

First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FPÖ voters seem to be very loyal...

I think FPO has a ceiling at 15%

[Keep Calm and ...]

First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FPÖ voters seem to be very loyal...

Yes, I'm sure.

survey period:
May 18-20

oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/1-Umfrage-FPOe-stuerzt-brutal-ab/380879718

[Keep Calm and ...]

Snap election in Burgenland: 26th January 2020

[Walmart_shopper]

  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The ÖVP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the ÖVP doesn't win a majority by itself à la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FPÖ after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SPÖ, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for ÖVP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FPÖ and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

Kurz could definitely go for ÖVP-NEOS-Greens.

That's because we will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FPÖ over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating ÖVP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as ÖVP-FPÖ.

Sounds like the ÖVP is no better than the German CDU after all.

I'm back on the FPÖ train then.

You definitely pick winners.

[pilskonzept]

First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FPÖ voters seem to be very loyal...

Yes, I'm sure.

survey period:
May 18-20

oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/1-Umfrage-FPOe-stuerzt-brutal-ab/380879718

You'd probably see a sharper drop in raw numbers.

Snap election in Burgenland: 26th January 2020

Takes the snap out of "snap election", doesn't it? Why such a long time on life support?

[Walmart_shopper]

First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

Exactly what I expected, FPO between 15% and 20%

As I said, FPO voters are not easily transferable to OVP because many of them are just as bothered by the OVP as by the Socialists. As it is in France, by the way. Kurz tried pivoting well to the right, and this is where it got him. If that's what he truly believes then maybe he'll have to find a way to open up to the FPO crazies once again. And if he's more ideological malleable maybe he'll have to open up to a grand-coalition of sorts, which would make sense given his speech the other night.

In either case I don't think Tender's vision of an OVP-Greens-NEOS government is quite so simple. In this poll it would be tight, but doable. Who knows what would actually happen in a few months, especially if the SPO pick off Green voters.

[Keep Calm and ...]

First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FPÖ voters seem to be very loyal...

Yes, I'm sure.

survey period:
May 18-20

oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/1-Umfrage-FPOe-stuerzt-brutal-ab/380879718

You'd probably see a sharper drop in raw numbers.

Snap election in Burgenland: 26th January 2020

Takes the snap out of "snap election", doesn't it? Why such a long time on life support?

Ok. It' not really "snap". Better I call it "early election"?

[pilskonzept]

Ok. It' not really "snap". Better I call it "early election"?

Well, it's just four months early. What made Doskozil choose that date? Something like, the latest date acceptable to SPÖ and the earliest date aceeptable to FPÖ?

[Keep Calm and ...]

He said, that he choose this later date because he don't want that the "dirty campain" of the general election have an impact on the election campain for the Burgenland election.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ said they are open to supporting a no-confidence vote against Kurz if he insists on firing Kickl. Not one of their own, but for example if SPÖ or Neos or Now initiates one.

Now it's getting funny ...

Btw, I do not fully believe this new poll. The FPÖ is probably much lower now. Research Affairs was also biased towards the FPÖ in the past.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Peter Pilz (Jetzt/Now) already announced a no-confidence vote.

[bigic]

What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

[Walmart_shopper]

What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.