Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[urutzizu]

What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.

Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz with a press statement at 6:30pm ... in ca. 45 minutes ... about what to do with Kickl.

[Walmart_shopper]

Kurz with a press statement at 6:30pm ... in ca. 45 minutes ... about what to do with Kickl.

He's backed himself into a corner, though. Anything short of firing Kicki would have horrible optics.

[Walmart_shopper]

What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.

Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.

So the president could refuse any request to dissolve parliament? Would that be far outside the norms of the presidency?

I'm trying to figure out why anyone would threaten a no confidence vote when new elections have already been called.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz just announced that he will kick out Kickl from the cabinet and has already told him so at a recent meeting.

Kurz has also talked with President VdB (because it is the President who ultimately needs to fire a cabinet member after the Chancellor declares so).

Kurz now expects the FPÖ to withdraw every cabinet member from the government, which he'll try to fill with independent experts for the next 6 months or so until the new government is formed.

Kurz: "The FPÖ has destroyed our successful government work."

[Tender Branson]

Even though the FPÖ is flirting with the no-confidence vote against Kurz initiated by NOW, it is far from certain that for example the SPÖ and/or NEOS will back it as well.

SPÖ and NEOS are in a "stability trap": Austrians want stability over the next months, so they certainly would not like SPÖ/NEOS to take Kurz down for political power gambling. They would be punished during the elections.

[bigic]

- ÖVP obviously won't back the no-confidence vote.
- SPÖ, Neos, Jetzt and the two independents don't have enough votes.
- Still not enough if the SPÖ is replaced by the FPÖ.

-> If there are no defections, the majority for a non-confidence vote must include both SPÖ and FPÖ. And since these two parties have a majority, the votes of other parties are effectively irrelevant.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz explains the firing of Interior Minister Kickl with the fact that "it's impossible that he remains in charge of future investigations against his own party in Ibiza-Gate".

[urutzizu]

What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.

Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.

So the president could refuse any request to dissolve parliament? Would that be far outside the norms of the presidency?

I'm trying to figure out why anyone would threaten a no confidence vote when new elections have already been called.

He could, but in practice he most likely would not. The Bundespräsident is on paper about as powerful as the french president, but in reality only very rarely interferes in day-to-day politics.
As for your second question, it is mostly a symbolic act to humiliate the goverment and to tie Kurz to the scandal.

[Tender Branson]

With the FPÖ getting serious now to pull out all of their remaining 4 cabinet members + 1 state secretary (Strache and Kickl are already out), the best thing Kurz could do now is to find some kind of truce with the other opposition parties (the FPÖ is now an opposition party again) and appoint independent experts who are let's say "SPÖ-affiliated" (for the Health Ministry), or "Green-affiliated" (for the Infrastructure Ministry) and "NEOS-affiliated" (for the Interior Ministry) or something, to keep his options open for after the elections ...

Otherwise, Kurz may win the election big - but will face roadblocks in forming a new government.

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS:

All FPÖ-cabinet members are leaving Kurz's ÖVP-FPÖ government, after Kurz said an hour ago that he will fire Interior Minister Kickl (FPÖ).

The FPÖ will also prepare their own no-confidence vote for Kurz, after the party "NOW" has already announced one.

Link

That was quick.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Take Out The Trash Day 2: Electric Kickloo

[Former President tack50]

Even though the FPÖ is flirting with the no-confidence vote against Kurz initiated by NOW, it is far from certain that for example the SPÖ and/or NEOS will back it as well.

SPÖ and NEOS are in a "stability trap": Austrians want stability over the next months, so they certainly would not like SPÖ/NEOS to take Kurz down for political power gambling. They would be punished during the elections.

Do no-confidence votes require an "alternative candidate" like in Spain or Germany? Or is it just a new election happening anyways?

[windjammer]

I guess SPO and Greens will abstain

[rob in cal]

But what I'm still wondering about is whether Kurz actually would have let the FPO to name another FPO member as a new interior minister or whether there could be no new FPO interior minster because it would a conflict of intrest for the Ibiza investigation.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As it was outlined by Kurz himself on Saturday, this was more of "the straw that broke the camel's back" moment for the FPÖ. Nevertheless, I'm still astonished at the speed this government is self-destructing now. Unless they reform radically and quickly the FPÖ will probably barred from power for quite some time now, and as far as the ÖVP is concerned it's still somewhat unclear whether they will mainly benefit from this or whether they will be consumed by it as well.

[Omega21]

As it was outlined by Kurz himself on Saturday, this was more of "the straw that broke the camel's back" moment for the FPÖ. Nevertheless, I'm still astonished at the speed this government is self-destructing now. Unless they reform radically and quickly the FPÖ will probably barred from power for quite some time now, and as far as the ÖVP is concerned it's still somewhat unclear whether they will mainly benefit from this or whether they will be consumed by it as well.

There's no reason why they would suffer, they bear no responsibility for something someone not in their party did before he held any Government office.

Btw. do you have 2 profiles now? I remember seeing the same name just on a newer profile

[rob in cal]

  As I see it one danger for the OVP is that unless they do really well in the elections, they will be scrambling to get a working coalition going after September, assuming Kurz doesn't want the SPO. I wonder about an OVP minority government in such a scenario.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Btw. do you have 2 profiles now? I remember seeing the same name just on a newer profile

That's not me.

[parochial boy]

As it was outlined by Kurz himself on Saturday, this was more of "the straw that broke the camel's back" moment for the FPÖ. Nevertheless, I'm still astonished at the speed this government is self-destructing now. Unless they reform radically and quickly the FPÖ will probably barred from power for quite some time now, and as far as the ÖVP is concerned it's still somewhat unclear whether they will mainly benefit from this or whether they will be consumed by it as well.

Exactly, the FPÖ's Putin fanboy act has never exactly been a secret, and when you add in the other scandals, the attempts to undermine the independence of Austria's institutions, and so on... it's not exactly hard to get to the accusation that Kurz enabled all this - and out of sheer opportunitism as well

[Omega21]

Former BND Director (German CIA) commented on the recent events.

"Offenkundig wird hier versucht, Wahlen zu manipulieren"

"Obviously this is an attempt to manipulate elections"

https://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/videos/politik/Offenkundig-wird-hier-versucht-Wahlen-zu-manipulieren-article21035713.html?fbclid=IwAR15IfgFkKnR1XiTG2WzboPtXv4WD7XlUUZ03Iuvy5EAh0xFm4REucZp6qs

[Tender Branson]

The next special meeting of parliament will take place next week after the EU election, so FPÖ, SPÖ and Co. can figure out what to do with Kurz in the meantime.

Impeach him or not ?

In case a majority of MPs vote yes, Kurz is ousted as Chancellor and would have to resign. President VdB would have to appoint a new, independent caretaker Chancellor for the next 4-6 months or so, until the new government is formed.

The ousting of Kurz would not mean his end (he could still win the election and come back), but it would still be a humiliation for him, being rejected in parliament ...

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ just announced that they will definitely vote for the Kurz no-confidence proposal by the party "NOW" next week.

The big question will be how the SPÖ decides ...

[Diouf]

Apparently Strache was suspicious at one moment during the meeting with the Russian, and wondered out loud whether it could be a trap because the Russian women had dirt under her feet nail, "Russians in this league does not have dirty feet".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Apparently Strache was suspicious at one moment during the meeting with the Russian, and wondered out loud whether it could be a trap because the Russian women had dirt under her feet nail, "Russians in this league does not have dirty feet".

A classic Trumpism.