Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

What just happened ?

?

I was referring to what did Strache & Kurz do to get tossed from office ?

Well ... there are now 12 pages about it.

Please start reading here.

Or here.

[Tender Branson]

The latest gimmick is that the federal election will likely be held on September 29 and the regular Vorarlberg state election on October 13, giving them more time for their own campaign instead of being drowned out by the federal election campaign.

On the other hand, both elections on the same date would have been better because it would increase turnout.

Also, the first cabinet council meeting of the interim Bierlein government took place today, but nothing big was discussed, just the latest labour market data and that Sri Lanka was declared a non-safe country for asylum seekers in Austria up for deportation, as Sri Lanka re-introduced the death penalty.

The bigger discussion right now is about police brutality, after videos emerged where some police officers beat down climate protesters recently.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ leader Norbert Hofer says he will campaign heavily on measures to combat climate change over the next months and turn the FPÖ green:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/norbert-hofer-will-die-blauen-gruen-machen/400515406

[DavidB.]

The next far-right Leader to recognise that preserving the nation and preserving its environment go hand in hand. Marine Le Pen was very much the first, when she campaigned on a quite environmentalist platform in the EU elections, and won of course.

We consider environmentalism the natural child of patriotism, because it's the natural child of rootedness

she said.

Nationalists can (and should) embrace environmentalism without also embracing the political theology of anthropogenic climate change and sacrificing our economies at its altar.

[Tender Branson]

Marine Le Pen was probably not the first, because Hofer already said in 2016 during the Presidential election that he, unlike Strache, does believe in man-made climate change and he also highlighted how he has solar panels on the roof of his home and is a small "organic farmer" at home, growing his own vegetables etc.

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll (May 31-June 4):

38% ÖVP (+6.5)
23% SPÖ (-4.0)
17% FPÖ (-9.0)
  9% Greens (+5.2)
  9% NEOS (+3.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  3% Others (+1.0)

Chancellor:

46% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP)
19% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
19% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

Should Kurz become Chancellor again after the election ?

59% Yes
41% No

Which coalition do you prefer after the election ?

26% ÖVP-Greens-NEOS
21% ÖVP-FPÖ
19% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS
  8% ÖVP-SPÖ
  6% SPÖ-FPÖ

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Beben-59-wollen-Kurz-als-Kanzler/383337152

[rob in cal]

  Hopefully FPO opponents don't try to tie Hofer's intrest in organic farming into latent Nazism, what with the Nazi intrest in organic farming and vegetarianism https://humanities.wustl.edu/features/Corinna-Treitel-Eating-Nature
 I like Hofer compared to other FPO leaders and believe had he been in charge of the FPO since the start of the OVP FPO coalition it would still be going strong.

[bigic]

Is there enough time for Strache to found a new party (or rename an existing one) and contest the election? I'm thinking of a scenario where he gets kicked out of FPO and then he founds a new party.

[Lechasseur]

Is there enough time for Strache to found a new party (or rename an existing one) and contest the election? I'm thinking of a scenario where he gets kicked out of FPO and then he founds a new party.

Frankly I don't see why he would. His political career is over anyway, and I don't think he has any reason to try to get revenge on the FPO.

[Tender Branson]

Is there enough time for Strache to found a new party (or rename an existing one) and contest the election? I'm thinking of a scenario where he gets kicked out of FPO and then he founds a new party.

Frankly I don't see why he would. His political career is over anyway, and I don't think he has any reason to try to get revenge on the FPO.

Correct.

And besides, Strache and the FPÖ are still on family-oriented terms. Strache just yesterday or so said that the FPÖ is a "big family" and that he fully supports the current leadership under Hofer, Vilimsky, Haimbuchner and Kickl.

Obviously, some within the party want him to get out for good, but others still remember that the party would not be where it is right now without Strache's leadership over the years and as a result has a solid base of at least 15-20% support. Remember that Strache started with 3% in 2005 and got the party back to 26% and even now, despite the scandal, it still polls around 18-20% ...

[Tender Branson]

New Unique Research poll for "Profil" magazine (May 31-June 5):

37% ÖVP (+5.5)
21% FPÖ (-5.0)
20% SPÖ (-7.0)
10% Greens (+6.2)
10% NEOS (+4.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  1% Others (-1.0)

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-kurz-nationalratswahlen-10813406

[Tender Branson]

Besides Sebastian Kurz (who is still quite popular), President Alexander Van der Bellen has seen a huge jump in his approval rating for handling the government crisis well and the new interim Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein also starts with high approval ratings according to the new "Profil" poll:

Alexander Van der Bellen: 79% approve, (was at ca. 50-40 before the crisis)

(ÖVP-voters: 89%, FPÖ: 58%, SPÖ: 91%)

Brigitte Bierlein: 55-10 approve (31% don't really know her yet)

(ÖVP-voters: 60%, FPÖ: 36%, SPÖ: 72%)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Alexander Van der Bellen: 79% approve, (was at ca. 50-40 before the crisis)

Why is there such a visible difference?

[Tender Branson]

Alexander Van der Bellen: 79% approve, (was at ca. 50-40 before the crisis)

Why is there such a visible difference?

Everyone acknowledges that VdB did a good job during the government crisis, even FPÖ voters, who were heavily critical of him since 2016.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP has announced they will vote with the SPÖ and others in parliament during the next months to kill the controversial pro-smoking law that they passed together with the FPÖ:

https://orf.at/stories/3125874

The ÖVP was never really comfortable with that law, but passed it because of compromises with the FPÖ in their coalition contract.

[Tender Branson]

The new Interior Minister has clarified today that young people who had their asylum requests rejected, but who are in a current apprenticeship with a company, can still be deported.

The Greens, NEOS, SPÖ and parts of the ÖVP wanted to end this practice, because they think that many companies are in need of young asylum seekers without a criminal background.

But Interior Minister Peschorn said that "the law of the country is pretty clear: an apprenticeship or work does not protect someone from deportation if the asylum status is revoked and because the country of origin is safe again."

In other words: He has no other choice than to follow the law, unless the parties change it.

https://derstandard.at/2000104512177/Peschorn-will-auch-kuenftig-Lehrlinge-abschieben

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard" newspaper (June 5-6):

38% ÖVP (+6.5)
22% SPÖ (-5.0)
19% FPÖ (-7.0)
10% Greens (+6.2)
  9% NEOS (+3.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  1% Others (-1.0)

https://derstandard.at/2000104553538/Umfrage-Nur-Kurz-schlaegt-Bierlein-in-der-Kanzlerfrage

[Tender Branson]

Turns out that there have been meetings between ÖVP-FPÖ in the last days and they have agreed to pass their already-worked-out tax reform/tax cut plans in parliament during the next few months + pension increases + plastic bag ban that they already agreed upon before their coalition broke apart.

Good to see that there is still some consensus left after the difficult last weeks. Previously, it was not clear what will happen to all the finalized proposals of ÖVP-FPÖ after their coalition ended.

https://derstandard.at/2000104554681/OeVP-und-FPOe-wollen-hoehere-Mindestpensionen-noch-gemeinsam-beschliessen

https://derstandard.at/2000104584355/Plastiksackerl-Verbot-kommt-nun-doch

[rob in cal]

If they could also pass direct democracy legislation that would be great, but I'm guessing neither party is really that supportive of that.

[Tender Branson]

If they could also pass direct democracy legislation that would be great, but I'm guessing neither party is really that supportive of that.

Definitely not.

It takes a while to prepare legislation like this and even under their regular coalition it was only planned for 2022 ...

[Cranberry]

If they could also pass direct democracy legislation that would be great, but I'm guessing neither party is really that supportive of that.

Definitely not.

It takes a while to prepare legislation like this and even under their regular coalition it was only planned for 2022 ...

They never planned on enacting anything like that anyway - otherwise they wouldn't have set goals significantly higher than either party spoke of during the campaign and completely ignored "direct democracy" last year when 15% of the voting population signed an anti-smoke petition. It's not an issue they really care about other than scoring some cheap political points with it.

[Tender Branson]

Former FPÖ Interior Minister Herbert Kickl's cousin, Daniela Kickl, has decided to run for the Greens in the coming election.

Daniela Kickl has long been heavily critical against Herbert and was present at many demonstrations against him.

She will run on the Greens Vienna list and would probably need to be ranked in the top-5 there to make it into the Austrian parliament, assuming the Greens win some 20 seats in September.

https://derstandard.at/2000104608157/Herbert-Kickls-Cousine-Daniela-will-fuer-die-Gruenen-antreten

[Tender Branson]

This week will clarify things about the coming election ...

Today is a public holiday here, but already tomorrow the relevant multipartisan committee in parliament will debate the election date and with the votes of SPÖ+FPÖ, September 29 will almost definitely be announced as election date.

On Wednesday and Thursday, parliament will have regular sessions. The interim Bierlein government will present itself, parliament will vote to dissolve and agree on the election date, several initiatives will be voted on that were agreed by ÖVP+FPÖ in the past and other topics such as rolling back the smoking ban.

If the election date is set for 29.09.2019, small parties (like the Greens) can start collecting the necessary 2.600 signatures to be on the ballot, beginning on July 9 and hand in the signatures by August 2.

ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ have already agreed on their frontrunners (Kurz, Rendi-Wagner and Hofer) and while NEOS will have internal primaries again, it is pretty sure that Meinl-Reisinger will be their lead candidate again.

That leaves the Greens and NOW without lead candidates. The Greens could have a double-ticket, like the German Greens, and might co-operate with NOW.

https://orf.at/stories/3126165

[Tender Branson]

Kurz+ÖVP will already launch a poster campaign this week and some say it looks like Leni Riefenstahl made it:



Source: free ÖVP poster.

"SPÖ+FPÖ have forced new elections. The people will decide. Our way forward has just begun."

[Tender Branson]

Funny:

The FPÖ is still using Strache‘s Facebook page with almost 1 million followers, as if nothing has happened ...

Just in the last few days they posted pictures of Strache, baby and wife on Fathers Day + attack ads against the ÖVP + how Kurz wants to create a „chaos coalition“ with the Greens and NEOS etc. etc.

The website has 9 admins, so they must still be in contact with Strache if they regularly post new pictures from him.