Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Sept. 29 federal election ?
#1
ÖVP
 
#2
SPÖ
 
#3
FPÖ
 
#4
NEOS
 
#5
NOW
 
#6
Greens
 
#7
KPÖ
 
#8
Change
 
#9
A regional party
 
#10
Invalid/Blank
 
#11
I wouldn't vote
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 110

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)  (Read 141922 times)
windjammer
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« Reply #525 on: June 13, 2019, 04:03:29 PM »

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.
And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?
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Cranberry
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« Reply #526 on: June 13, 2019, 04:18:13 PM »

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.
And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SPÖ in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. ÖVP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the ÖVP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.
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windjammer
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« Reply #527 on: June 13, 2019, 05:21:12 PM »

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.
And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SPÖ in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. ÖVP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the ÖVP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.
You really don't see that coming seriously? The medias are playing this narrative
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #528 on: June 13, 2019, 11:17:51 PM »

ÖVP-Greens-NEOS is the most likely option right now. I think the Greens will come around and enter the coalition if offered the choice to govern and if Kurz sends more moderate signals on certain topics.

ÖVP-FPÖ 3.0 is also quite likely.

Even ÖVP-SPÖ could be likely, but probably only if the SPÖ gets soundly defeated and Rendi-Wagner is replaced with someone else.

---

Also: The Greens will announce their lead candidate(s) today. Signs are pointing towards party leader Werner Kogler, who has led the Greens to a surprisingly high 14%+ in the EU elections and who gets extremely good support from the Green base because of it. It is likely that if Kogler runs, there will be a German-style Doppelspitze with a woman as his backup.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Gruene-geben-Spitzenkandidaten-bekannt/384453595
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rob in cal
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« Reply #529 on: June 14, 2019, 12:51:53 AM »

  Tender, do you think a new OVP FPO coalition is fairly possible soon?  I thought with all the bad blood developing over the Strache affair, plus FPO actually voting to unseat Kurz etc that that would not be very likely at all in the near future at any rate.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #530 on: June 14, 2019, 09:05:42 AM »

  Tender, do you think a new OVP FPO coalition is fairly possible soon?  I thought with all the bad blood developing over the Strache affair, plus FPO actually voting to unseat Kurz etc that that would not be very likely at all in the near future at any rate.

They could find ways to get back together again, but I assume only if Kickl does not become Interior Minister again.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #531 on: June 14, 2019, 09:06:49 AM »

The Greens will announce their lead candidate(s) today. Signs are pointing towards party leader Werner Kogler, who has led the Greens to a surprisingly high 14%+ in the EU elections and who gets extremely good support from the Green base because of it. It is likely that if Kogler runs, there will be a German-style Doppelspitze with a woman as his backup.

Green-leader Werner Kogler has decided not to take his seat in the EU parliament and become frontrunner for the September election instead.

https://orf.at/stories/3126769

Good choice.

Kogler is a folksy guy and a good debater.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #532 on: June 14, 2019, 10:55:23 AM »

The Vienna-FPÖ just voted to grant Philippa Strache the 3rd spot on their election list for September, guaranteeing her entry into the Austrian parliament (assuming she accepts the deal and H.C. Strache refuses to take his EU parliament seat):


Credit: Austrian Press Agency, open domain.

If elected, Philippa Strache will become the animal rights spokesperson for the FPÖ in parliament because their old MP will retire. Philippa is also a former SPÖ-voter and parliamentary aide for the SPÖ, before H.C. turned her blue.

https://derstandard.at/2000104891170/Philippa-StracheJetzt-steigt-Frau-Strache-in-die-politische-Arena

https://derstandard.at/2000104897130/FPOe-Wien-macht-Philippa-Strache-zum-Fixstarter-fuer-Nationalrat
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #533 on: June 16, 2019, 01:06:17 AM »

FPÖ-Kickl says that the party will end up with 20%+ in the election and could even end up close to the 26% they got in 2017 if the election campaign goes well for them ("Norbert Hofer leading the party into the election is the best thing that could happen.")

He also said that this time he won't be the FPÖ's campaign manager and therefore not responsible for their campaign posters and that ÖVP-FPÖ could be possible again. He said that Kurz personally wanted to continue the previous government, but was pressured into kicking Kickl out of government by the so-called "old, black ÖVP types" (meaning their Governors in the states).

https://orf.at/stories/3126958
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Cranberry
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« Reply #534 on: June 16, 2019, 01:48:57 AM »

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.
And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SPÖ in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. ÖVP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the ÖVP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.
You really don't see that coming seriously? The medias are playing this narrative

It doesn't make sense to me, no. Kogler himself called it extremely unlikely yesterday ("I lack the fantasy needed to imagine that"), which is not a surprise, given Kurz has spent the last two years acting completely contrary to the Green's interests.

https://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/15756081/gruenen-chef-kogler-fuer-koalition-mit-kurz-fehlt-mir-die-fantasie
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #535 on: June 16, 2019, 02:35:21 AM »

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.
And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SPÖ in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. ÖVP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the ÖVP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.
You really don't see that coming seriously? The medias are playing this narrative

It doesn't make sense to me, no. Kogler himself called it extremely unlikely yesterday ("I lack the fantasy needed to imagine that"), which is not a surprise, given Kurz has spent the last two years acting completely contrary to the Green's interests.

https://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/15756081/gruenen-chef-kogler-fuer-koalition-mit-kurz-fehlt-mir-die-fantasie

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #536 on: June 16, 2019, 02:59:42 AM »

Notice for Kalwejt, regarding the posting of pictures/copyright:

In the future, I will post pictures here from the APA (Austrian Press Agency) and from the Federal Chancellery, who grant their pictures to be posted on websites for political education purposes for free, if the source and name of the photographer are mentioned below the picture.

Quote
Punkt 3:

Soweit nicht ohnehin das Recht auf freie Werknutzung, insbesondere gemäß § 42 UrhG besteht, erteilt der Bund die

nicht übertragbare,
nicht ausschließliche,
zeitlich und räumlich unbeschränkte
Bewilligung das Bildmaterial des Fotoservice, an dem dem Bund die Rechte zustehen, kostenfrei

zu nicht kommerziellen Zwecken,
zu redaktionellen Zwecken von Medien und
zu Zwecken im Bereich der politischen Bildung
zu vervielfältigen, zu verbreiten, zu senden, öffentlich vorzuführen oder im Internet zur Verfügung zu stellen.


Eine darüber hinausgehende Nutzung, insbesondere für Werbezwecke, ist nicht zulässig.

Punkt 4:

Bei Veröffentlichung des Fotomaterials muss das abgebildete Sujet der Bildquelle und dem jeweiligen Fotografen zugeordnet werden können. Das gilt auch für Sammelbilder. Das Fotoservice des BKA ist als Bildquelle und mittels Schrägstrich nachgesetzt, der Name der Fotografin bzw. des Fotografen zu nennen. Beispiel: BKA/Andy Wenzel.

http://fotoservice.bundeskanzleramt.at/nutzungsbedingungen.html

For example:

[picture]

Source: BKA/Andy Wenzel

It also says so on the English-version of the Chancellery:

Quote
Copyright

Federal Chancellery of Austria 2019

Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. Any restrictions on use shall be clearly indicated.


https://www.bundeskanzleramt.gv.at/en/copyright.html?lang=en
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Cranberry
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« Reply #537 on: June 16, 2019, 03:37:24 AM »

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #538 on: June 16, 2019, 03:50:21 AM »

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SPÖ will not get their act together in 3 months and the FPÖ will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% ÖVP, 20-24% SPÖ, 17-21% FPÖ, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SPÖ+FPÖ would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.
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Cranberry
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« Reply #539 on: June 16, 2019, 05:08:34 AM »

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SPÖ will not get their act together in 3 months and the FPÖ will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% ÖVP, 20-24% SPÖ, 17-21% FPÖ, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SPÖ+FPÖ would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FPÖ if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #540 on: June 16, 2019, 10:40:43 AM »

Wow, this is sickening:


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Umengus
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« Reply #541 on: June 16, 2019, 10:45:32 AM »


why ?

it's just a pray... what is your problem with that ?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #542 on: June 16, 2019, 10:50:48 AM »


why ?

it's just a pray... what is your problem with that ?

Just a pray ? Kurz and his cult-like followers are setting the guy up to be a modern Jesus or Messiah, who is out to clean Austria from all the evil.

A prayer session in a Mega-Church in Oklahoma feat. Ted Cruz could not top that and we are talking about Austria here, where state and religion is supposedly seperated ... !

The fact that Kurz is willing to tie himself to these ultra-Christian stuff is highly disturbing IMO.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #543 on: June 16, 2019, 01:04:31 PM »

The Greens have announced that there will be no co-operation or fusion with NOW for the election.

https://www.sn.at/politik/innenpolitik/liste-jetzt-bedauert-nein-der-gruenen-zu-kooperation-71807263
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #544 on: June 16, 2019, 02:07:24 PM »

The Europride was held in Vienna and 500.000 people attended.

President Van der Bellen was the 1st European President to address the crowd (or so it was said):



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DavidB.
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« Reply #545 on: June 16, 2019, 02:59:35 PM »

That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.
Hahaha, this would be a hilariously unpopular disaster. Don't you think it was a mistake for Kurz to pull the plug? If I were the ÖVP I'd be cautiously shifting away from the anti-FPÖ talk, as they remain by far the easiest coalition partner and ÖVP-FPÖ by far remains the coalition in which the ÖVP can acquire the most powerful position...
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Cranberry
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« Reply #546 on: June 16, 2019, 04:13:17 PM »

That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.
Hahaha, this would be a hilariously unpopular disaster. Don't you think it was a mistake for Kurz to pull the plug? If I were the ÖVP I'd be cautiously shifting away from the anti-FPÖ talk, as they remain by far the easiest coalition partner and ÖVP-FPÖ by far remains the coalition in which the ÖVP can acquire the most powerful position...
Of course it would be, but that I don't think that this would hold back the usual suspects to try it anyway.
It's become pretty clear Kurz tried to copy Schüssel all along and just waited for the best moment to pull the plug to subsequently win the election so big that he could take everyone. Of course, history repeats itself second as a farce, so just wait and see if he didn't gamble too big.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #547 on: June 16, 2019, 07:02:38 PM »


why ?

it's just a pray... what is your problem with that ?

Just a pray ? Kurz and his cult-like followers are setting the guy up to be a modern Jesus or Messiah, who is out to clean Austria from all the evil.

A prayer session in a Mega-Church in Oklahoma feat. Ted Cruz could not top that and we are talking about Austria here, where state and religion is supposedly seperated ... !

The fact that Kurz is willing to tie himself to these ultra-Christian stuff is highly disturbing IMO.

I would have thought the ultra-Christians would be FPÖ voters and not ÖVP ones? I guess christian democrats still do get the devout christian vote.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #548 on: June 16, 2019, 07:05:34 PM »

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SPÖ will not get their act together in 3 months and the FPÖ will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% ÖVP, 20-24% SPÖ, 17-21% FPÖ, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SPÖ+FPÖ would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FPÖ if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

If Germany is any indication, going for ÖVP-SPÖ would be suicidal for at least one of the 2 (most likely SPÖ) and arguably both.

If SPÖ-Greens-NEOS does not get a majority and neither does ÖVP-NEOS, I think the best course of action would be ÖVP-FPÖ again.

Then again grand coalitions are even more common in Austria than in Germany if I am not mistaken? And SPÖ seems more competent than the German SPD?
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
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« Reply #549 on: June 16, 2019, 07:58:22 PM »

Let's quote a quote from The Right Honourable Francis Urquhart to describe Kurz: "no background and no bottom".
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