Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Omega21]

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SPÖ will not get their act together in 3 months and the FPÖ will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% ÖVP, 20-24% SPÖ, 17-21% FPÖ, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SPÖ+FPÖ would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FPÖ if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

If Germany is any indication, going for ÖVP-SPÖ would be suicidal for at least one of the 2 (most likely SPÖ) and arguably both.

If SPÖ-Greens-NEOS does not get a majority and neither does ÖVP-NEOS, I think the best course of action would be ÖVP-FPÖ again.

Then again grand coalitions are even more common in Austria than in Germany if I am not mistaken? And SPÖ seems more competent than the German SPD?

This.

The reds pull left > the Kurz voters who came from FPÖ return to the FPÖ

ÖVP pulls right > the more left-wing part of the SPÖ goes to Greens

[Tender Branson]

The public ORF broadcaster has decided to allow the Greens to take part in the upcoming TV debates for the election, despite the fact that they are not in parliament right now:

https://www.krone.at/1943399

The FPÖ is not amused.

[Cranberry]

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SPÖ will not get their act together in 3 months and the FPÖ will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% ÖVP, 20-24% SPÖ, 17-21% FPÖ, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SPÖ+FPÖ would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FPÖ if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

If Germany is any indication, going for ÖVP-SPÖ would be suicidal for at least one of the 2 (most likely SPÖ) and arguably both.

If SPÖ-Greens-NEOS does not get a majority and neither does ÖVP-NEOS, I think the best course of action would be ÖVP-FPÖ again.

Then again grand coalitions are even more common in Austria than in Germany if I am not mistaken? And SPÖ seems more competent than the German SPD?

Let's not act as if grand coalitions are anything but the norm in Austria - we've had three so far: 1945-1966 (ÖVP/SPÖ), 1987-1999 and 2006-2017 (both SPÖ/ÖVP). It certainly wouldn't be a disaster of the German level, round here it's far more a return to the norm rather than an unpopular experiment. It certainly wouldn't be popular with voters, but neither would be any other possible government majority I can think of. The problem is that there is a clear centre-right majority in Austria whose government just broke up but whose voters stay with their parties. In essence, the relationship between the "blocks" (SPÖ/Greens/Jetzt vs ÖVP/FPÖ with Neos in the middle) hasn't really changed since 2017, but the "right block" that clearly has a majority just broke up.

[Tender Branson]

"EU-No !", which failed to get onto the ballot for the EU elections, will try again in September for the federal election under the name "ÖXIT: Platform for Homeland, Environment, Neutrality and Direct Democracy."

It will be relatively easy this time to get on the ballot, because unlike in the EU election where you needed 2.600 signatures Austria-wide, you can also contest the election in single states as well, with signatures ranging from 100-500 in each state. They got some 2.400 for the EU election.

https://orf.at/#/stories/3127242

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+Greens decided today that the Vorarlberg state election will be held on Oct. 13:

https://derstandard.at/2000105066301/Vorarlberg-Wahl-fix-am-13-Oktober

[Tender Branson]

H.C. Strache already planning his comeback:

* There has been a deal between the FPÖ and the Straches, which both sides accepted

* H.C. Strache will not take his EU seat and stay mostly "quiet" for the next year

* Instead, he got a consulting job for the FPÖ, worth 10.000€ per month

* His wife Philippa will run for parliament this fall, worth 9.000€ per month

* This will compensate for the 20.000€ per month H.C. earned as Vice-Chancellor

* If the state prosecution does not charge Strache with anything, Strache will return as FPÖ-lead candidate for the important 2020 Vienna state election (but only assuming the state prosecution announces so several months before the state election). Otherwise, Dominik Nepp will become lead candidate.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/heinz-christian-strache-plant-sein-comeback-in-oesterreich-a-1272827.html

[Tender Branson]

New SORA/Integral poll for the public ORF broadcaster:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1141332946433036288
For the first time since 2002, a majority for ÖVP+Greens.

Also, a new high for the Greens. Not an all-time high, but certainly for the past few years.

[windjammer]

H.C. Strache already planning his comeback:

* There has been a deal between the FPÖ and the Straches, which both sides accepted

* H.C. Strache will not take his EU seat and stay mostly "quiet" for the next year

* Instead, he got a consulting job for the FPÖ, worth 10.000€ per month

* His wife Philippa will run for parliament this fall, worth 9.000€ per month

* This will compensate for the 20.000€ per month H.C. earned as Vice-Chancellor

* If the state prosecution does not charge Strache with anything, Strache will return as FPÖ-lead candidate for the important 2020 Vienna state election (but only assuming the state prosecution announces so several months before the state election). Otherwise, Dominik Nepp will become lead candidate.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/heinz-christian-strache-plant-sein-comeback-in-oesterreich-a-1272827.html

I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet)

[Tender Branson]

I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet).

The only European country which still has the death penalty is Belarus.

[Tender Branson]

APA/OGM's new "trust index" of major politicians shows that for the first time, Kurz is no longer the most trusted politician in the country.

His numbers have gone down by a lot and he was overtaken by interim Chancellor Bierlein and President VdB:



The chart shows the balance of "I have trust" minus "I have no trust" in this politician.

Werner Kogler and Beate Meinl-Reisinger have decent numbers for leaders of small opposition parties, Pamela Rendi-Wagner not so much and Peter Pilz is down and out.

Interesting also that Norbert Hofer has gone from roughly balanced to a strong negative saldo after taking over the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

After 2 weeks into her job, Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein has attended her first EU summit yesterday:



Source: BKA/Andy Wenzel (free)

[Tender Branson]

I think that turnout could hit 81-85% this time.

Why ?

Because until now, early elections always had higher turnout than the election before ...

1970: 91.8%
1971: 92.4%

1994: 81.9%
1995: 86.0%

1999: 80.4%
2002: 84.3%

2006: 78.5%
2008: 78.8%

2013: 74.9%
2017: 80.0%
2019: ?

I think this year is very similar to the 1999 -> 2002 situation.

Also, the fact that the Greens could enter parliament again and increased enthusiasm among the young crowd due to the climate change strikes are speaking in favour of higher turnout this time.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet).

The only European country which still has the death penalty is Belarus.

And Austria is among the least likely countries to bring it back.

[Tender Branson]

I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet).

The only European country which still has the death penalty is Belarus.

And Austria is among the least likely countries to bring it back.

Yes, support is only 10%.

[President Johnson]

Will Bierlein return the court after the election or is this the "crown" of her career in public service? I remember Greece had the head of the highest court acting as prime minister ahead of snap elections.

[Tender Branson]

Will Bierlein return to the court after the election or is this the "crown" of her career in public service?

Bierlein would have retired as Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court anyway in July after their final session for the year, because there's an age limit of 70.

She turns 70 on Tuesday.

[Tender Branson]

https://www.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1142408320382316544

[Tender Branson]

While the other parties are preparing their election campaigns, the SPÖ is ironing in Burgenland:

https://www.twitter.com/blau_gelb_dani/status/1142319827769602049

[DL]

What would an OVP/Green coalition government be like from the point of view of policy? How much would change with the FPO being replaced by the Greens as the junior partner?

[Tender Branson]

What would an OVP/Green coalition government be like from the point of view of policy? How much would change with the FPO being replaced by the Greens as the junior partner?

A couple things:

* First, an ÖVP-Green coalition might not happen for 2 reasons: because it's not possible electorally (something like 35% ÖVP, 11% Greens) or 49%-49% for the government and opposition blocks but you need a few additional surplus seats for a stable government - or because the main actors are opposed to such a coalition. On the other hand, an ÖVP-Green government would make the most sense (together with NEOS, if they are needed) because it would be the most centrist, the most non-controversial and stable coalition with no headwinds from Europe.

* Second, not trying such a coalition would be incredibly stupid on the part of Kurz and the ÖVP. Why ? If Kurz would opt for the FPÖ again, they get a stronger coalition partner with more demands and controversial people again. Plus, Europe would cry out again. With the Greens entering parliament again and probably finishing around 10-14%, the chances of big demands are lower than with the FPÖ as coalition partner. Especially on the topic of migration, asylum and security. The FPÖ would claim it is "their" topics again, where they want to be in charge. The Greens on the other hand have learned their part over the last years and largely shut up on the topic of immigration and focused on environment and social topics instead. By entering parliament again and then shouting aloud again: "WE WANT MORE IMMIGRANTS IN AUSTRIA !" they would risk being kicked out of parliament again, or being demonized again by the public and other parties. The Greens will therefore make moves towards the center and the ÖVP will also move to the center during such coalition talks.

* Third, if the people involved in the talks are willing to create such a government it should be easier than in the past, especially after the disaster talks between ÖVP-Greens in 2002 - then led by Schüssel and Van der Bellen. Van der Bellen is now President and will certainly look for a better ending this time for his Greens. He will act as mediator and will be a huge factor in creating such a government. Besides, all the ÖVP-Greens governments in the states (such as in Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburg, Upper Austria) were all successful and were re-elected. If the Greens can get their Vienna-group in line and the ÖVP their farmers and business wings, then a coalition could be coming by Christmas. I think they will find some compromises on the economy, debt, taxes and especially the environment.

[Tender Branson]

Here is the map of winners by district in the EU election:



Considering a 5.5% swing based on current polls, the SPÖ could lose almost all their strongholds to the ÖVP in September, which would be a catastrophe for them:



Only Vienna as a whole, Linz, Steyr and Villach + suburbs could remain as SPÖ-wins.

They could lose all their former industrial, working-class districts in Styria (mining, steel) to the ÖVP and could not win a single (!) district in Burgenland.

[Former President tack50]

Here is the map of winners by district in the EU election:



Considering a 5.5% swing based on current polls, the SPÖ could lose almost all their strongholds to the ÖVP in September, which would be a catastrophe for them:



Only Vienna as a whole, Linz, Steyr and Villach + suburbs could remain as SPÖ-wins.

They could lose all their former industrial, working-class districts in Styria (mining, steel) to the ÖVP and could not win a single (!) district in Burgenland.

To be fair, polls are predicting what, 38-23 for the ÖVP?

If the results was reversed, you would see the opposite, a completely red map with a handful of pockets of cyan.

[Tender Branson]

Here is the map of winners by district in the EU election:



Considering a 5.5% swing based on current polls, the SPÖ could lose almost all their strongholds to the ÖVP in September, which would be a catastrophe for them:



Only Vienna as a whole, Linz, Steyr and Villach + suburbs could remain as SPÖ-wins.

They could lose all their former industrial, working-class districts in Styria (mining, steel) to the ÖVP and could not win a single (!) district in Burgenland.

To be fair, polls are predicting what, 38-23 for the ÖVP?

If the results was reversed, you would see the opposite, a completely red map with a handful of pockets of cyan.

Not really, there would be more rural ÖVP areas in such a case than urban SPÖ areas in the upcoming case, as the rural areas seem to still be more loyal to the ÖVP in such wave elections.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How is the SPO-FPO government in Burgenland and seen these days by the public and the party cadre?

[Tender Branson]

How is the SPO-FPO government in Burgenland seen these days by the public and the party cadre?

There will be state elections in January next year. They were called a few months earlier than normal (May), but that is usually not uncommon. But with Ibiza, it is more likely now that the SPÖ dumps the FPÖ next year, despite the government being mostly OK (it’s not like the FPÖ has much to say there ...)