Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

 Tender, in the past you've mentioned your concern over the Greens and other left leaning parties over their weakness on the immigration/asylum issues.  Do Kogler and the Greens seem significantly different now?

I would say they have learned their part over the last few years on the bench, now focusing more on the things that have always been associated with the Greens since the 1980s (= fighting climate change, pollution, corruption, being pro-transparency and equality) and they are much less focusing on immigration right now.

In general, the Greens seem to be less snobby/smug today than they were in the past and more appealing again to the Center:

https://twitter.com/Gruene_Austria/status/1147436180537008129

Immigration is also not that important any longer this year, as asylum requests have dropped to below 1.000 per month now and is in line with pre-2015 levels again. A Green government participation would not change that either, as some from the FPÖ (or David B. etc.) are claiming. In fact, there's a chance that the Greens could play a vital role in looking after the ÖVP in a way that they are not getting too megalomaniac, while pushing the things that are needed to make Austria a modern and more progessive country in the future.

Today, they selected IMO a very good mix of people (most of them newcomers) at their convention, to lead the party into the September election:

https://twitter.com/Gruene_Austria/status/1147519093014183936

[Tender Branson]

Not only the Greens are voting on/finalizing their election lists today, but also NEOS.

Werner Kogler was elected Green frontrunner with 98.6% of delegates today, while Beate Meinl-Reisinger was elected NEOS frontrunner with 96.1%

Here are the elected candidates from the federal NEOS list:


Source: NEOS/Twitter

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ & FPÖ continue to get negative headlines ...

Turns out that a cartoonist close to the SPÖ recently created one such cartoon portraying Kurz as a young Nazi officer in a „Schindler‘s List“ re-make.

And Norbert Hofer was exposed recently to have raised the wages of several Transport Ministry officials by a lot during his time as Transport Minister + another report shows the former FPÖ cabinet ministers running costly ads in often obscure and conspiracy theory-spreading far-right blogs and media.

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow is the official starting point for the Sept. 29 election and the election calendar starts running:

https://orf.at/stories/3129459

Which means between tomorrow and Sept. 29, a campaign spending limit of 7 million € per party will take effect.

After the Ibiza-affair, SPÖ+FPÖ passed stronger penalties in case more money is spent on the campaign (for example, the ÖVP spent almost 14 million during the 2017 campaign and almost had to pay no penalty for it).

Also, signature collection for small parties will start. Even the Greens will have to collect 2.600 signatures to be on the ballot until August 2, but they will not have problems doing so.

[Tender Branson]

President Van der Bellen:

"For the next government, I will not swear in Kickl again."

https://orf.at/stories/3129666

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer:

"The only scenario for us is a renewal of ÖVP-FPÖ after the election."

... and considering how steadily Kurz talks right now about sending the migrants back to Libya immediately, this also seems more likely than ÖVP-Greens or ÖVP-Greens-NEOS.

[rob in cal]

  Also, VDB didn't rule out approving another FPO member as interior minister, just not Kickl, if I read it correctly.

[Tender Branson]

 Also, VDB didn't rule out approving another FPO member as interior minister, just not Kickl, if I read it correctly.

Yepp.

VdB said yesterday he's open to swearing in another ÖVP-FPÖ government, if that's the result of negotiations.

Obviously, he would look carefully at the FPÖ people that are presented as cabinet members. That the FPÖ would get the Interior Minister again is highly unlikely though.

[Tender Branson]

Here is a good summary of recent events, which led to the new election (for those who don't want to read the last 10 pages):

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/can-europe-make-it/austrias-smoking-gun-strache-ibiza-gate-and-saint-sebastian

[Tender Branson]

New IFES poll (IFES is the SPÖ's internal pollster):

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1149320024303292416

[Tender Branson]

New poll (Research Affairs for Ö24, July 5-10):

* the Greens continue to gain (12%)
* 74% say they will "definitely" vote (a good number for this point in time => summer)
* 71% say they have already decided on a party or have a "clear" tendency
* 29% say they have not decided (with 15% saying they have no clue who to vote for)
* 58% say the FPÖ is not fit to govern any longer in a future coalition

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is really in the dumpster lately, yet is still backed by almost 20% of voters ...

Yesterday, H.C. Strache posted something on Facebook about Jörg Haider's blood samples and how they are now getting destroyed after 10 years in a warehouse and "nobody will get to know the truth about his death" (= a murder by Mossad or some other conspiracy theory). Strache also said that "he himself was lucky to still live and that the attack on him was not fatal."

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000106170544/strache-wuetet-mit-verschwoerungstheorie-zu-joerg-haider-auf-facebook

Gudenus also gave an interview, bringing Ibiza back into the spotlight for the FPÖ.

https://www.vol.at/gudenus-taucht-wieder-aus-der-versenkung-auf/6282025

In Upper Austria, a FPÖ-politician slapped a Green-politician in the face (but then apologized).

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000106178011/blauer-vizebuergermeister-ohrfeigte-gruenen-gemeinderat

[rob in cal]

  Tender, if a OVP Green coalition government somehow emerged with Kurz as Chancellor I wonder how the activist base of the Greens would feel about reinstating Kurz who just a few months ago was one of the bad boys in European politics at least from the left wing perspective.

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, if a OVP Green coalition government somehow emerged with Kurz as Chancellor I wonder how the activist base of the Greens would feel about reinstating Kurz who just a few months ago was one of the bad boys in European politics at least from the left wing perspective.

That's going to be a problem, yes.

[Tender Branson]

New Profil magazine poll:

37% ÖVP
21% FPÖ
20% SPÖ
11% Greens
  9% NEOS
  1% NOW
  1% Others

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190713_OTS0003/profil-umfrage-kurz-legt-in-kanzlerfrage-deutlich-zu

[Tender Branson]

The party "NOW" (Liste Jetzt), which split from the Greens in 2017, will announce during the afternoon if they are running in the Sept. 29 election or not.

Despite their low polling numbers (1%) and their implosion (6/8 of their original MPs left the party), signs are pointing towards another run.

[Tender Branson]

The party "NOW" (Liste Jetzt), which split from the Greens in 2017, will announce during the afternoon if they are running in the Sept. 29 election or not.

Despite their low polling numbers (1%) and their implosion (6/8 of their original MPs left the party), signs are pointing towards another run.

They will run.

And focus mostly on animal rights & protection this time.

So it seems they are turning into our version of the Partij voor de Dieren ... but I guess this will not be enough, because all other parties have a strong focus on animal rights and protection as well, even the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian politician arrested after firing gun from balcony

A politician from the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) was arrested on Friday after flying into a rage on the balcony of his apartment and repeatedly firing his gun.

The unnamed 57-year-old fired a total of 29 shots from his pistol during the incident in the town of Bergheim, just 5 kilometers (3 miles) north of Salzburg, according to Austrian media, citing a police report.


Source: www.scrapbookpages.com

The incident, in which no one was injured, took place on Friday morning when the man's reportedly drunken behavior prompted neighbors to call the police, Austrian broadcaster ÖRF said.

Police attended the scene, calmed down the politician and then left. Neighbors then made a second complaint when he started shooting. The officers returned with a police tactical unit and a helicopter and the politician was arrested. Police said nobody was hurt in the incident.

A spokesperson for the FPÖ confirmed the arrest and said the man had been suspended from the party.

https://www.dw.com/en/austrian-politician-arrested-after-firing-pistol-from-balcony/a-49575174-0

[parochial boy]

Well if you're going to join a nationalist party, you might as well live up to a few stereotypes while you're at it

[Tender Branson]

The Kurz-ÖVP has decided that FPÖ's Kickl will "not be part of a future ÖVP-FPÖ coalition under any circumstances: neither as Interior Minister nor as another Minister".

https://orf.at/stories/3130201

This will be a tough sell for the FPÖ, especially since Kickl is demanding his return to the Interior Ministry after the September election as part of another coalition, to "continue our successful policies on immigration".

Kickl and Vilimsky also said today: "The ÖVP's strategy to divide and split the FPÖ into a (more pragmatic, moderate) Hofer-wing and a (radical) Kickl-wing will not succeed."

Both said that the FPÖ will demand the Interior Ministry again in a future coalition with the ÖVP ("the FPÖ will not be put down by the ÖVP with meaningless cabinet posts ...") and that the ÖVP is already secretly "preparing for ÖVP-Green or ÖVP-Greens-NEOS chaos coalitions."

[Former President tack50]

The Kurz-ÖVP has decided that FPÖ's Kickl will "not be part of a future ÖVP-FPÖ coalition under any circumstances: neither as Interior Minister nor as another Minister".

https://orf.at/stories/3130201

This will be a tough sell for the FPÖ, especially since Kickl is demanding his return to the Interior Ministry after the September election as part of another coalition, to "continue our successful policies on immigration".

Kickl and Vilimsky also said today: "The ÖVP's strategy to divide and split the FPÖ into a (more pragmatic, moderate) Hofer-wing and a (radical) Kickl-wing will not succeed."

Both said that the FPÖ will demand the Interior Ministry again in a future coalition with the ÖVP ("the FPÖ will not be put down by the ÖVP with meaningless cabinet posts ...") and that the ÖVP is already secretly "preparing for ÖVP-Green or ÖVP-Greens-NEOS chaos coalitions."

Your choice at this election: Strong and Stable leadership under Sebastian Kurz or a coalition of chaos led by Pamela Rendi Wagner

[Tender Branson]

The Kurz-ÖVP has decided that FPÖ's Kickl will "not be part of a future ÖVP-FPÖ coalition under any circumstances: neither as Interior Minister nor as another Minister".

https://orf.at/stories/3130201

This will be a tough sell for the FPÖ, especially since Kickl is demanding his return to the Interior Ministry after the September election as part of another coalition, to "continue our successful policies on immigration".

Kickl and Vilimsky also said today: "The ÖVP's strategy to divide and split the FPÖ into a (more pragmatic, moderate) Hofer-wing and a (radical) Kickl-wing will not succeed."

Both said that the FPÖ will demand the Interior Ministry again in a future coalition with the ÖVP ("the FPÖ will not be put down by the ÖVP with meaningless cabinet posts ...") and that the ÖVP is already secretly "preparing for ÖVP-Green or ÖVP-Greens-NEOS chaos coalitions."

Your choice at this election: Strong and Stable leadership under Sebastian Kurz or a coalition of chaos led by Pamela Rendi Wagner

As things are right now, PRW will not lead anything ...

[Tender Branson]

Peter Pilz (JETZT/NOW):

"We are the only party that is unwilling to jump into bed with Kurz after the election and will function as the only real opposition & control party against the corrupt Kurz and the Nazi-FPÖ."

This is of course correct, because SPÖ/FPÖ/Greens/NEOS at least have not 100% ruled out working with Kurz after the election.

Interesting also that Peter Pilz will appear on their federal list as frontrunner again, but Maria Stern will remain party leader and also appear in the TV debates.

https://orf.at/stories/3130284

Also, new Market poll (July 8-9):

36% ÖVP
21% SPÖ
20% FPÖ
11% Greens
10% NEOS
  1% NOW
  1% Others

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000106274772/umfrage-56-prozent-sehen-regierung-bierlein-als-gut-fuer-oesterreich

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that the Austrian Pirate Party will run together with the Greens in the election.

Their candidate, Maria Chlastak (center), has been elected 10th on the Green federal list - but they will run a strong preference vote campaign to move her up the list.

If the Greens get 12-15% in the election, about 8-14 candidates will enter parliament via their federal list, the other from state or regional lists.


Source: Pirate Party

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190716_OTS0016/piraten-wollen-mehr-vorzugsstimmen-als-werner-kogler

[Tender Branson]

Small parties who want to be on the ballot have to collect 2.600 signatures from voters until August 2, but all parties except the Greens ("huge support") call the process "cumbersome":

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5660646/Unterstuetzungserklaerungen_Kleinparteien-kritisieren-muehsamen

With ca. 2 weeks left, things are looking good for the far-leftist "Change" party and the right-wing "ÖXIT" party though. The Communist KPÖ usually also gets onto the ballot.

The pro-children party ARGUS thinks they might convince 3 MPs in parliament to sign their candidacy for them.

The German satire party "The PARTY" is also running, saying they will "get at least 8 million signatures."