Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

ÖXIT reported at noon to several media outlets that they have collected enough signatures for Vienna, Lower- and Upper Austria - but the Interior Ministry said that after a quick count of submitted signatures, they are not on the ballot anywhere. The signatures that were submitted by all parties will be verified in the next days and then a final list of qualified parties will be announced. It is possible that the quick count of ÖXIT's signatures will be overruled, but this is very unlikely.

Here's more on ÖXIT's (probably) failed candidacy:

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190803_OTS0004/oexit-plattform-reichte-wahlvorschlag-in-drei-bundeslaendern-ein

Inge Rauscher, their leader, said that they submitted 462 signatures for Vienna in paper form to the Interior Ministry yesterday (500 are needed for Vienna) and 429 and 308 for Lower- and Upper Austria respectively. 500 are needed for Lower- and 400 for Upper Austria.

Rauscher argued that much more than 462 people supported ÖXIT's petition drive: 545 in Vienna, according to info they got from the municipal office there ... and because of that, they should have a right to be on the ballot in these 3 states.

But that's not so easy: More people might have signed their petition, but did not mail it back to the party so that they can hand it in. And that's what counts. The physical paper petitions are the only thing that matter to the Interior Ministry for accepting a candidacy.

[Tender Branson]

If you scroll down the Austrian Greens Twitter feed, you will only find 1 tweet mentioning immigration or asylum these days (out of 100 tweets):

https://twitter.com/Gruene_Austria/with_replies

So much to David B.'s argument that the Greens have not learned a thing over the past years and are still 100% immigration enablers.

In that case (= if they start talking too much again about being pro-immigration), they know that the Austrian voters will eradicate them again at the polls, like in 2017 ...

[urutzizu]

David generally, correct me if i am wrong, seems to have a certain universalist outlook when it comes to Green parties. I think he takes Groenlinks in the Netherlands and assumes that other Green parties in Europe are similar. They are not. This universalist Approach might work with Greens in like Berlin, Hamburg or London. But Greens in Southern Germany/Austria are completely different, both in their policy and in the people who vote for them. Take the Idea of Humanitary Visas for example, which Groenlinks supports. The Greens here would never support that. There is a reason why here, one of the most conservative states in Germany, the Greens get 30%+:  Conservation of the Country and Conservation of the Environment do not exclude each other here.

[Tender Branson]

David generally, correct me if i am wrong, seems to have a certain universalist outlook when it comes to Green parties. I think he takes Groenlinks in the Netherlands and assumes that other Green parties in Europe are similar. They are not. This universalist Approach might work with Greens in like Berlin, Hamburg or London. But Greens in Southern Germany/Austria are completely different, both in their policy and in the people who vote for them. Take the Idea of Humanitary Visas for example, which Groenlinks supports. The Greens here would never support that. There is a reason why here, one of the most conservative states in Germany, the Greens get 30%+:  Conservation of the Country and Conservation of the Environment do not exclude each other here.

Correct.

I would like to see more Greens like myself around: not the regular types of urban Green voters, who are extremely naive when it comes to immigration - but rather have a good dose of scepticism and realism and sense of law and order mentality. Some immigration is definitely OK, but certainly not large-scale immigration of culture-hostile areas such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and elsewhere. What the Greens instead need to focus on are their bread-and-butter-topics of climate change, pollution prevention, fighting and exposing corruption, combating the far-right, (pay) equality for women, LGBT topics, affordable housing etc.

[Tender Branson]

I have recently started reading the book

"The Pinzgau under the Swastika: Dictatorship in the Province."


Source: Otto Müller Verlag

A very good book.

The "Pinzgau" is the district I am living in and it was one of the regions in the German Reich + later annexed Austria with the earliest and most ardent following of the NSDAP (Nazis).

As early as 1925-1930 (and 8-15 years before Austria was annexed by Nazi-Germany), the Zell am See region had an above-average following of the NSDAP. Later on, the district had the 2nd-highest share of SS-volunteers (after some areas down in Carinthia).


2 children with the Nazi-salute on top of the Kitzsteinhorn glacier in Kaprun

Source: Pinzgauer Bezirksarchiv, Zell am See

The author explains it this way: Zell am See has always been a tourist and recreation area, especially for German and Bavarian tourists (and now for Arabs). Of course, back in the 1920 and 1930s, this led to a really good connection with the Nazis in Germany, because after the failed Munich putsch a lot of important Nazis went to hide in and around Zell am See and spread their message. And in recent years, even David Duke had an apartment here.

The book also features a lot of historical election results of the district and its towns from the 1920s and 1930s (before elections were banned altogether under the Nazis).

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-leader Sebastian Kurz has met with Werner Kogler (Greens) recently for a secret private meeting, which led to speculations about a coalition between them.

Later, Kurz said that he also met Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ) and will meet other party leaders/representatives as well for summer talks.

Kurz wants to keep his options open for after the election ...


Source: oe24.at

[Cranberry]

The book also features a lot of historical election results of the district and its towns from the 1920s and 1930s (before elections were banned altogether under the Nazis).

Didn't need Nazis for that, our very own fascists were perfectly capable of that themselves.

[Tender Branson]

The book also features a lot of historical election results of the district and its towns from the 1920s and 1930s (before elections were banned altogether under the Nazis).

Didn't need Nazis for that, our very own fascists were perfectly capable of that themselves.

Yeah, of course. The elections were banned right after 1932 (which were the last ones) under the Austrofascist regime and continued by the Nazis (excl. the rigged 1938 referendum).

[Tender Branson]

I did some calculations on the introduction of non-citizen voting rights for federal elections:

Currently, only citizens aged 16+ are able to vote in parliamentary elections.

That’s roughly 6.4 million people for September 29.

But there are an additional 1.5 million foreigners living here, of which 1.2 million are older than 16.

In total, 7.6 out of 8.9 million people could vote in such a scenario.

How would the results for parties be affected ?

Actually not by much:

Assuming a turnout of 80% for Austrian citizens and 60-70% for non-citizens, we’d get 5.9 million votes cast out of 7.6 million (overall turnout would obviously drop by some 3% if non-citizens are allowed to vote, as they are not as politically involved in politics).

Assuming further that the SPÖ gets 22% and the Greens get 12% in the regular election in September and a hypothetical high 40% and 30% respectively among non-citizen voters, then the SPÖ would end up with 24-25% and the Greens with 14-15% combined.

So, the inclusion of non-citizen voters would probably just add 2-3% at best for both parties under a very favorable scenario ...

[Tender Branson]

I also wonder how the 1.2 million non-citizens in Austria would vote in such a scenario ...

Who are they ?

31% are from Eastern EUrope (since 2004)
22% are from non-EU Eastern Europe and the Balkans
20% are from Western Europe (former EU-14 + EFTA)
13% are from Asia
  8% are from Turkey
  3% are from Africa
  1% are from North America
  1% are from South America
  1% are from Oceania or are stateless

Immigrants from Eastern Europe + Balkans will have solid support for ÖVP and SPÖ and also the FPÖ, while Greens and NEOS would do badly.

People from Western Europe would likely back ÖVP, Greens and NEOS above average and SPÖ below average and the FPÖ far below average.

People from Asia, Turkey, Africa and America would likely have a strong SPÖ+Green tendency.

Altogether, I would say that immigrants would vote something like:

30% ÖVP
30% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
15% Greens
  7% NEOS
  3% Others

So, the overall results would not change by much, SPÖ+Greens would probably gain just a point each.

[Tender Branson]

Austrians living abroad can register until Thursday to vote in the federal election.

About 584.000 Austrians are living abroad (mostly in Germany and the rest of Europe and the US), but only 60.000 of them will register to vote.

[rob in cal]

   it wasn't until after the Innsbruck municipal elections of spring 1933 that the Dollfuss regime banned elections, when it was clear that the Austrian Nazis were on a huge upswing due to Hitlers takeover in Germany.

[DavidB.]

If you scroll down the Austrian Greens Twitter feed, you will only find 1 tweet mentioning immigration or asylum these days (out of 100 tweets):

https://twitter.com/Gruene_Austria/with_replies

So much to David B.'s argument that the Greens have not learned a thing over the past years and are still 100% immigration enablers.

In that case (= if they start talking too much again about being pro-immigration), they know that the Austrian voters will eradicate them again at the polls, like in 2017 ...

They are smart enough not to tweet about it but wouldn't act any differently if another group of thousands of refugees arrived at the border in Nickelsdorf. I'd rather see them talk about it and be honest about it.

David generally, correct me if i am wrong, seems to have a certain universalist outlook when it comes to Green parties. I think he takes Groenlinks in the Netherlands and assumes that other Green parties in Europe are similar. They are not. This universalist Approach might work with Greens in like Berlin, Hamburg or London. But Greens in Southern Germany/Austria are completely different, both in their policy and in the people who vote for them. Take the Idea of Humanitary Visas for example, which Groenlinks supports. The Greens here would never support that. There is a reason why here, one of the most conservative states in Germany, the Greens get 30%+:  Conservation of the Country and Conservation of the Environment do not exclude each other here.

I obviously understand not all Greens are the same, and the idea of conservation of the country and conservation of the environment is something I heartily endorse. The problem is that, for all of the difference in terms of focus by the Greens in, say, BaWü, they still vote the same way federally. They still share a party with Claudia "Deutschland, du mieses Stück Scheiße" Roth, a party that votes for more immigration and made opposition to an "Obergrenze" a priority at the negotiating table for Jamaika. It's the exact same thing Social Democrats have often done: de-emphasize the issue, perhaps not even agree with the party line, but, when push comes to shove, vote for the policies destroying our countries. And so I am thoroughly unimpressed by the Greens' focus on de-emphasizing the issue, which is merely strategic and not sincere at all. Ultimately, their commitment to mass immigration (which they will always prioritize over the environment) says it all.

[rob in cal]

  I don't want to derail this topic into a discussion about the German Greens, but that horribly anti-German statement by Roth is really ugly. What was the context of it, did she ever apologize, and did the German Greens ever repudiate it and punish her for saying it?

[Keep Calm and ...]

She never said that.

https://www.tagesschau.de/faktenfinder/inland/kampagnen-roth-101.html
https://www.bz-berlin.de/deutschland/ich-muss-mich-nicht-distanzieren-nur-weil-die-afd-das-will

[Tender Branson]

New poll for Styria: FPÖ gaining compared with 2015. Styria votes early next year.

https://mobile.twitter.com/neuwalcom/status/1158462500599451653

[rob in cal]

 A demographic question for Tender. Its been discussed by some, Austrians and even some in Orbans government, that there is either a majority, or close to one, of moslems, or children from moslem backgrounds in Vienna's public schools.  If Turks are only 8% of Austria's non-citizens and then adding Bosnian Moslems, plus potential Moslems from elsewhere, plus children of Austrian citizens who are Moslems etc, how does that get to about 50% in Vienna? I would think then that Vienna would likely be much much higher than even other Austrian cities like Graz, Linz etc?

[Tender Branson]

A demographic question for Tender. Its been discussed by some, Austrians and even some in Orbans government, that there is either a majority, or close to one, of moslems, or children from moslem backgrounds in Vienna's public schools.  If Turks are only 8% of Austria's non-citizens and then adding Bosnian Moslems, plus potential Moslems from elsewhere, plus children of Austrian citizens who are Moslems etc, how does that get to about 50% in Vienna? I would think then that Vienna would likely be much much higher than even other Austrian cities like Graz, Linz etc?

The last study was for 2016/17 for Vienna's elementary schools:

31% Roman-Catholic
28% Muslim
17% Other Christian (mostly Orthodox)
  1% Others (Jewish etc.)
23% No Religion

They are not a "majority", but about to overtake Catholic students - which is understandable considering all the in-migration of foreigners to Vienna and outmigration of Austrian parents to the suburbs. Also, Muslim families have much higher fertility, which is also driving their share up. Same thing that can be seen in other countries.

[DavidB.]

They are not a "majority", but about to overtake Catholic students - which is understandable considering all the in-migration of foreigners to Vienna and outmigration of Austrian parents to the suburbs.

Aren't quite some of the suburbs actually part of Vienna, i.e. part of this total figure as well? I assume the main mostly lower-middle class suburban area outside the Vienna region is the corridor stretching all the way to Wiener Neustadt?

[Krago]

5pm was the deadline for parties to submit enough signatures for the Sept. 29 election.

As per the Interior Ministry, the following parties have qualified for the ballot:

In Carinthia only:

Allianz der Patrioten (BZÖ)

Dumb question:  How does that party name get that abbreviation?

[DavidB.]

Dumb question:  How does that party name get that abbreviation?

They used to be Bündnis Zukunft Österreich but that's an incredibly vague name (doesn't tell you anything about their views), so they presumably decided to go with something clearer while maintaining the abbreviation under which they were already known.

[Tender Branson]

They are not a "majority", but about to overtake Catholic students - which is understandable considering all the in-migration of foreigners to Vienna and outmigration of Austrian parents to the suburbs.

Aren't quite some of the suburbs actually part of Vienna, i.e. part of this total figure as well? I assume the main mostly lower-middle class suburban area outside the Vienna region is the corridor stretching all the way to Wiener Neustadt?

Vienna (the city) has 1.9 million people and the numbers above are based on that whole city.

Vienna's suburbs are stretched around 5.000 km² of land mostly to the South and North-West (and more recently, to the North-East) and there are an additional 800.000 people living there, for 2.7 million in the metro-area.

Both Vienna + suburbs are growing fast, but Vienna almost exclusively because of foreigners.

Everything that is light-red in the 1st and yellow in the 2nd picture can be seen as Vienna's suburbs.

[Tender Branson]

A demographic question for Tender. Its been discussed by some, Austrians and even some in Orbans government, that there is either a majority, or close to one, of moslems, or children from moslem backgrounds in Vienna's public schools.  If Turks are only 8% of Austria's non-citizens and then adding Bosnian Moslems, plus potential Moslems from elsewhere, plus children of Austrian citizens who are Moslems etc, how does that get to about 50% in Vienna? I would think then that Vienna would likely be much much higher than even other Austrian cities like Graz, Linz etc?

I should also note that religious statistics in Austria are very dubious, because religion was last asked in a traditional Census in 2001.

After 2001, population census taking was changed to a register-based system - relying on the Central Population Register (ZMR).

Every person in Austria with a main residence has to register there and while there is a field for religion, it is not mandatory to fill it out. You can also write in: None or Unknown.

Therefore, no detailed religious statistics exist since 2001 with the number of None or Unknown at almost 25% of the population now. That doesn't mean that these people are atheists, but mostly people like me: people who quit the Catholic Church or others, or parents who are not registering their kids with a certain religion.

[Tender Branson]

So, with the federal election campaign being very boring right now (the parties are still working on their campaigns, which will start in a few weeks), the FPÖ has finally unveiled their long-awaited "party history report":



https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107124652/experten-zerreissen-fp-historikerpapier

Such a party history report is to examine the FPÖ's history since WW2 and was intended to highlight connections of the party to the NSDAP (which the report acknowledges), of major politicians to right-wing extremism etc. etc.

ÖVP and SPÖ have already done so years ago, creating their own party history reports (which unveiled some dark connections during WW2 and afterwards).

Experts say the 1000+ page report (of which only a 32-page summary was released yesterday) is "problematic, relativising and trivialising the FPÖ's history and Nazi-past and it is full of historical gaps".

The FPÖ says that historical experts, professors and scientists have put a lot of work into the report and praise it. Norbert Hofer also said that they will send the preliminary report to a history professor in Israel for fact-checking and then release the full report to the public.

[Tender Branson]

The Kurz-ÖVP wants to enshrine an Austrian's right to pay by cash in the constitution:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107113579/oevp-will-im-wahlkampf-ueber-bargeld-reden