Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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  Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Sept. 29 federal election ?
#1
ÖVP
 
#2
SPÖ
 
#3
FPÖ
 
#4
NEOS
 
#5
NOW
 
#6
Greens
 
#7
KPÖ
 
#8
Change
 
#9
A regional party
 
#10
Invalid/Blank
 
#11
I wouldn't vote
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 110

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)  (Read 141942 times)
Omega21
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« Reply #700 on: August 07, 2019, 07:44:02 AM »


What a great way to get some votes for free lol...

Though I support the idea in any case.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #701 on: August 07, 2019, 01:04:41 PM »


What a great way to get some votes for free lol...

Though I support the idea in any case.

Makes sense for the ÖVP from a populist perspective, because 95% of Austrians like to pay with cash and don't want it banned and it could attract additional FPÖ-voters who are critical of the EU's plans to get rid of cash money in the future, so that governments and banks eventually have full control over the private wealth of people (the 500€ banknotes were already banned recently).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #702 on: August 07, 2019, 01:08:32 PM »

I have now included a poll on top where you can vote for a party in the Sept. 29 election.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #703 on: August 07, 2019, 01:33:29 PM »



How true ...

(The leftist small party Change, which managed to be on the ballot nationwide, tweets that they were not invited by the public ORF to any of their 20-30 TV debates and duels - while the ORF allowed the ÖVP to send Karoline Edtstadler as a stand-in for Kurz during his debates. And Edtstadler was recently elected to the EU parliament, so she isn't even running in this election !)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #704 on: August 07, 2019, 01:49:21 PM »

There are no poster campaigns yet by the parties (it's still summer vacation time and voters don't want to be annoyed by them just yet), but the FPÖ is out with social media ads like this already which show what their strategy might be:



Quote
"Now more than ever: They are against HIM, because he is (working) for YOU."

The FPÖ will use Kickl to keep the rightwing base happy and use Hofer as the moderate voice to attract more centrist voters.

This strategy might actually work and the FPÖ could do much better than expected ...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #705 on: August 07, 2019, 02:02:28 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2019, 02:07:46 PM by DavidB. »

Since I see Tender put up a poll: the FPÖ could do anything and I'd still vote for them, but I'd be disappointed if they let themselves be played by the ÖVP too easily after Kurz' disgusting opportunistic move. Perhaps they should let Kurz try and form a coalition with NEOS and the Greens first, with the reasoning that since he ditched the FPÖ he should first try another option, and then let him come back to the FPÖ if negotiations break down - then the FPÖ will have the upper hand (and if not, Kurz' policies will be so left-wing that the FPÖ will be at 30%> within a year). A coalition without Kickl is only acceptable if someone whose policies would be just as strong replaces him. The Burgenland FPÖ's idea of SPÖ-FPÖ is also fine with me, but the numbers really won't be there.

I do think Kurz' move only emboldened the more right-wing segment among the FPÖ. My uncle was deeply disappointed with the party when they cracked down on the IB and thought of staying home in the next election, but was as enthusiastic as ever to come out and vote FPÖ in the EP election after Kurz made the coalition collapse.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #706 on: August 07, 2019, 02:21:38 PM »

Since I see Tender put up a poll: the FPÖ could do anything and I'd still vote for them, but I'd be disappointed if they let themselves be played by the ÖVP too easily after Kurz' disgusting opportunistic move. Perhaps they should let Kurz try and form a coalition with NEOS and the Greens first, with the reasoning that since he ditched the FPÖ he should first try another option, and then let him come back to the FPÖ if negotiations break down - then the FPÖ will have the upper hand (and if not, Kurz' policies will be so left-wing that the FPÖ will be at 30%> within a year). A coalition without Kickl is only acceptable if someone whose policies would be just as strong replaces him. The Burgenland FPÖ's idea of SPÖ-FPÖ is also fine with me, but the numbers really won't be there.

I do think Kurz' move only emboldened the more right-wing segment among the FPÖ. My uncle was deeply disappointed with the party when they cracked down on the IB and thought of staying home in the next election, but was as enthusiastic as ever to come out and vote FPÖ in the EP election after Kurz made the coalition collapse.

Your uncle might be a good indicator of the FPÖ's base and its mood.

Even though the campaign is very boring right now and the polls stable, I still expect some movement coming: the debates and poster campaigns will change some minds and there are still 30-40% undecided.

And despite Ibiza, there is still a lot going for ÖVP-FPÖ: before the scandal, state election results showed that Austrians really loved that coalition and together got 60-80% in more rural areas, with the SPÖ collapsing even in urban areas.

It's likely that Ibiza will fade by late September and voters will mostly forget about it. That would be good news for the FPÖ, especially if they find a good poster campaign as well and Norbert Hofer does well in the debates. And all of this while Strache keeps on strolling his baby down the road, while staying out of the news. They could get to 25%, which would be almost no damage compared with 2017.

And also not forget that the economy is still going OK here, despite a massive slowdown in nearby Germany and Italy already, our biggest trading partners. ÖVP and FPÖ are associated with the good economy and the balanced budget and voters might take this much more into consideration than the Ibiza scandal.

Talk about possible coalitions is too early now, but I would prefer ÖVP-Greens-NEOS - assuming that climate change is tackled on the back of a strong Green election result, but the ÖVP keeps the Green demands on immigration down in a coalition contract.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #707 on: August 08, 2019, 03:58:26 AM »

According to Wikipedia the Greens now have 1 member of the National Council, I presume this is a defection from another party (Pilz List?) does anyone know the specifics?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #708 on: August 08, 2019, 10:12:55 AM »

According to Wikipedia the Greens now have 1 member of the National Council, I presume this is a defection from another party (Pilz List?) does anyone know the specifics?

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/liste-jetzt-aufloesung-alma-zadic-gruenen-pilz-10847387

Alma Zadic, a former member of the Pilz List, joined the Greens and will run as 5th on their list (which means she will be elected again).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #709 on: August 08, 2019, 10:44:14 AM »

These are the ballots for the election (Carinthia is shown here):



In the blank spaces below the parties, you can insert candidate preference votes for the federal level, the state and the electoral district level.

The candidates for the 3 levels for each party are listed on the BMI website or in the polling station and postal voters get a small booklet with all the names in it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #710 on: August 08, 2019, 12:45:14 PM »

Like the self-destructing SPD in Germany, the SPÖ here is once again preoccupied with itself:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107186915/streit-in-tiroler-spoe-um-dornauer-bild-auf-parteizentrale

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5671058/Tirols-SPOeChef-Dornauer-ueberklebt-rote-Rose-mit-seinem-Konterfei

https://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/15929583/dornauer-solo-geht-tiroler-sp-spitzen-jetzt-zu-weit

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Dornauer-Massive-Kritik-aus-den-eigenen-Reihen/392041977

You cannot win an election this way.

But you cannot talk about "winning" anyway any longer, with the SPÖ at 20% and dropping.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #711 on: August 08, 2019, 03:13:38 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2019, 09:50:32 AM by Tender Branson »

New Ö24 poll:

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #712 on: August 09, 2019, 09:49:30 AM »

It seems Norbert Hofer's page is already testing some poster campaign motives:

https://www.facebook.com/pg/norberthofer2019/photos
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #713 on: August 09, 2019, 01:25:16 PM »

Strache with the 1st major TV interview after the Ibiza scandal ... for Russia Today:


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #714 on: August 10, 2019, 12:45:34 AM »

Another sign that this early election has caught everyone by surprise:

* Postal ballots are starting to be sent to voters in 2-3 weeks already
* Parties have no election platforms yet
* Parties have no campaign posters ready yet
* no mega-events like this 2017 Orwellian sect-event by the Kurz-ÖVP below are planned





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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #715 on: August 10, 2019, 01:07:52 AM »

Profil poll:

"Did you already decide on which party to vote for on Sept. 29 ?"

45% I have already decided to vote for a party
21% I have a tendency for a party
27% No decision yet
  7% Don't know/No opinion

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190810_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-fast-zwei-drittel-der-oesterreicher-haben-wahlentscheidung-bereits-getroffen 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #716 on: August 10, 2019, 11:08:40 PM »

The FPÖ has been banned by court order to use songs of the Austrian national hero and music legend "Falco" (he once had a #1 in the US Billboard charts) at their campaign events:



https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/5672174/Helden-von-heute_FPOe-darf-nicht-mehr-Falco-spielen

"Falco", while he was still alive, was always a left-winger and critical of the FPÖ & Haider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnHEX0GSN28
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #717 on: August 11, 2019, 02:06:08 AM »

Via Google Translate:

Quote
For Hofer, only ÖVP-FPÖ or opposition conceivable

For FPÖ's leading candidate Norbert Hofer, only co-operation with the ÖVP is an option after the Nationalrat election.

"Either we make a coalition with the ÖVP, continue the cooperation, or we are an opposition party," said the designated FPÖ chairman in the APA interview. As a demand for a coalition agreement, he called the rapid implementation of binding referendums.

The ÖVP advised Hofer not to think of a government constellation other than the ÖVP-FPÖ ended after the Ibiza scandal: "After many in Austria want the coalition to continue, one would probably not understand why this way is not possible. "And if the FPÖ would go into opposition, probably the following state elections" would not be so bad for us, "said Hofer in the direction of ÖVP.

The ÖVP and Kickl

Hofer's statement that former Minister of Interior Herbert Kickl will not again be entrusted with this department leaves him cold: "I think that's a kind of campaign strategy. It was not all run in the election campaign, as planned by the ÖVP, in the context of much-cited message control. "And therefore make the ÖVP just" another topic ".

I just do not want to get into it. "First, the voters at the word, then only there was the decision, which coalition talks are conducted." He said, I do not have any preliminary talks with the ÖVP. "I think that is really meaningless in the phase of an election campaign." As an election target Hofer called the prevention of a majority of ÖVP and Greens and an election result of "20 percent plus" - "a big plus," said Hofer.

For more direct democracy

The Hofer wants to win the voters not only with blue core issues such as strict migration and security policy, but also with the theme of direct democracy. Here he wants to achieve more than in the last government program. This provided that people's petitions from 900,000 signatures from 2022 must be subjected to a binding referendum. In the 2017 election campaign, the ÖVP itself spoke of a hurdle of just 600,000 signatures (around ten percent of eligible voters), Hofer noted. For him that is now "the absolute upper limit".

In addition, he wants a faster implementation: "The goal is that we implement not in the first phase of the legislature, but in the first phase, this possibility of direct democratic decisions."

https://orf.at/#/stories/3133338
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #718 on: August 11, 2019, 10:24:44 AM »

New Market poll for the "Standard":

35% ÖVP
22% SPÖ
20% FPÖ
10% Greens
10% NEOS
  1% NOW
  2% Others

The 800 Austrians that were polled were also asked to position themselves on a scale of 0-100 (left to right).

The average was 47.98, which means Austrians position themselves to the center with a small tendency to the Left. It was 49.77 before the 2017 election.

Men: 50.14
Women: 45.93

FPÖ voters position themselves at 62.98, but all voters say the FPÖ is at 81.20

ÖVP voters: 53.24 (self), 61.35 (all other voters)

NEOS voters: 44.35 (self), "roughly the same" (all other voters)

SPÖ voters: 37.83 (self), 33.67 (all other voters)

Green voters: 37.49 (self), 24.45 (all other voters)

NOW voters: none, small sample-size (self), 31.33 (all other voters)
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Coldstream
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« Reply #719 on: August 12, 2019, 02:14:15 AM »

According to Wikipedia the Greens now have 1 member of the National Council, I presume this is a defection from another party (Pilz List?) does anyone know the specifics?

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/liste-jetzt-aufloesung-alma-zadic-gruenen-pilz-10847387

Alma Zadic, a former member of the Pilz List, joined the Greens and will run as 5th on their list (which means she will be elected again).

Interesting, was she a former Green before Pilz? I ask because I’m surprised the Greens would want someone from a party that split off from them to rejoin.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #720 on: August 12, 2019, 03:03:29 AM »

FPÖ voters position themselves at 62.98, but all voters say the FPÖ is at 81.20

ÖVP voters: 53.24 (self), 61.35 (all other voters)

NEOS voters: 44.35 (self), "roughly the same" (all other voters)

SPÖ voters: 37.83 (self), 33.67 (all other voters)

Green voters: 37.49 (self), 24.45 (all other voters)

NOW voters: none, small sample-size (self), 31.33 (all other voters)
Does the last figure represent other voters' impression of the left-right stance of these parties' voters or of the left-right stance of the party itself? In the last case, the difference is logical. Obviously your average Green or FPÖ voter is going to be more "centrist" than the party.
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Omega21
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« Reply #721 on: August 12, 2019, 09:40:55 AM »

Molotov attack on FPÖ HQ in Lower Austria:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Landbauer-Es-haette-Tote-geben-koennen/392662350



Meanwhile, people are pissed off about Rendi-Wagner (the leader of the "socialists") having some fun in one of the supposedly most exclusive Clubs in St. Tropez (100 Eur/beach chair/day)

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Rendi-Foto-im-Luxus-Club-spaltet-das-Netz/392636379
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #722 on: August 12, 2019, 11:29:25 AM »

According to Wikipedia the Greens now have 1 member of the National Council, I presume this is a defection from another party (Pilz List?) does anyone know the specifics?

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/liste-jetzt-aufloesung-alma-zadic-gruenen-pilz-10847387

Alma Zadic, a former member of the Pilz List, joined the Greens and will run as 5th on their list (which means she will be elected again).

Interesting, was she a former Green before Pilz? I ask because I’m surprised the Greens would want someone from a party that split off from them to rejoin.

No, she was a lawyer before joining the Pilz list, who then made herself a name in the Kickl investigation committee.

That’s a reason why the Greens took her on board.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #723 on: August 12, 2019, 11:30:22 AM »

FPÖ voters position themselves at 62.98, but all voters say the FPÖ is at 81.20

ÖVP voters: 53.24 (self), 61.35 (all voters)

NEOS voters: 44.35 (self), "roughly the same" (all voters)

SPÖ voters: 37.83 (self), 33.67 (all voters)

Green voters: 37.49 (self), 24.45 (all voters)

NOW voters: none, small sample-size (self), 31.33 (all voters)
Does the last figure represent other voters' impression of the left-right stance of these parties' voters or of the left-right stance of the party itself? In the last case, the difference is logical. Obviously your average Green or FPÖ voter is going to be more "centrist" than the party.

The latter.

How all voters perceive (...) party.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #724 on: August 13, 2019, 10:51:04 AM »

Austrian Prosecutors Target Freedom Party’s Former Vice Chancellor In Raids

Quote
Austrian prosecutors raided addresses linked to the nationalist Freedom Party’s former Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache and the head of gambling company Novomatic AG on suspicions of graft and corruption.

The probe centers on the appointment of Freedom Party’s Peter Sidlo to the management board of Casinos Austria AG, a lottery and casino operator in which the Austrian government and Novomatic own stakes, a Casinos Austria spokesman said, confirming a report in Austrian newspaper Der Standard. Casinos Austria isn’t a target of the probe, he said.



Investigators are looking into whether Strache, former junior Finance Minister Hubert Fuchs, and others pledged favorable legal changes in return for Novomatic backing the appointment at Casinos Austria, Der Standard said.

A spokesman for the white-collar prosecutors’ office in Vienna confirmed that raids took place Monday in relation to a graft investigation. The prosecutors suspect six individuals and one gambling company, he said. He declined to elaborate, citing the confidentiality of the investigation.

Novomatic Chief Executive Officer Harald Neumann and owner Johann Graf are among those being probed, Der Standard said. A spokesman for Novomatic declined to comment.

Sidlo didn’t immediately return an email seeking comment. He was also appointed to the Austrian central bank’s supervisory board by the Freedom Party last year. The Freedom Party said it would comment later Tuesday.

Strache resigned as vice chancellor and Freedom Party Chairman in May, following the release of a video in which he was shown promising state contracts for cash to a woman claiming to be a Russian oligarch’s niece and plotting the takeover of Austria’s largest newspaper.

Conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, who had governed in a coalition with the Freedom Party, was toppled a few days later, and Austria will now have an election Sept. 29.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-13/austrian-prosecutors-target-freedom-party-s-strache-in-probe
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