Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Here’s the official Doppelspitze of the leftist „Change“ party for the September 29 election:



Dani Platsch & Fayad Mulla.

Mulla (Austrian mother, Syrian father) would probably be the first lead candidate with an Arab migrant background IIRC.

Platsch is of Austrian-Slovak origin and was mostly raised in Germany, but now lives here. She was frontrunner for the pan-European list of Varoufakis in Germany during the EU election.

[Tender Branson]

The KPÖs leadership trio for the election:



Ivo Hajnal (a university professor for old Greek linguistics) from Innsbruck

Elke Kahr (city council member in Graz, where the Communists are popular with 20%)

Zeynep Arslan (a social scientist, journalist, author)

[Tender Branson]

It emerged today that Strache and Gudenus (FPÖ) are also being investigated by the state prosecution as possible "enemies of the state":

Auch dass wegen „Gründung einer staatsfeindlichen Verbindung“ ermittelt wird, war bisher nicht bekannt. Der Zweck einer solchen Verbindung ist laut §246 Strafgesetzbuch, „auf gesetzwidrige Weise die Unabhängigkeit, die in der Verfassung festgelegte Staatsform oder eine verfassungsmäßige Einrichtung der Republik Österreich oder eines ihrer Bundesländer zu erschüttern“.

„Wenn Strache und Gudenus ausführen, wie sie Gesetze, die ordnungsgemäße Bestellung von Organen oder ordnungsgemäße Ausschreibungen umgehen, ist eindeutig die Unabhängigkeit (der Republik Österreich, Anmerkung) erschüttert.“

It was not yet known that an "establishment of an anti-state connection" is being investigated. The purpose of such a connection is, according to §246 Penal Code, "to undermine in an unlawful manner the independence, the state form stipulated in the constitution or a constitutional institution of the Republic of Austria or one of its federal states".

"If Strache and Gudenus would have acted in a way that they evade laws, the proper appointment of organs or proper tenders, the independence (of the Republic of Austria, note) is clearly shaken."

https://orf.at/stories/3133682

In effect this means that the prosecutor could charge both of them for being traitors to the country.

[Tender Branson]

Today, the federal election commission has released the qualified parties and all candidates that are running in the Sept. 29 election on the federal, state and electoral district level.

ÖXIT has not made the ballot, which means the quick count of their submitted signatures was upheld and they fell short of the necessary signatures.

8 parties are running Austria-wide and 5 other parties in some states only. These small parties can still enter parliament, but for this they have to receive a so-called basic mandate (Grundmandat) in a regional election district. That usually means some 20% of the votes in such a district, which is utopic for such meaningless small parties.

With the announcement of the qualified parties and candidates, postal ballots can now be printed and sent to voters.

[Tender Branson]

It seems the public ORF broadcaster is not fully ignoring the small parties that are competing the election Austria-wide ...

Tonight at 10pm, the above-mentioned frontrunners for the leftist "Change" party (Daniela Platsch) and for the far-left Communists (Ivo Hajnal) will be interviewed during the heavily-watched ZIB2 news show.

https://orf.at/stories/3133745

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for the "Kurier" newspaper:




https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurier-ogm-umfrage-oevp-deutlich-vorn-spoe-festigt-platz-zwei/400578569

[mileslunn]

Barring some unforseen event, its pretty clear Kurz will be re-elected, the question is what coalitions are most likely:

Does he bring back the right wing one of OVP-FPO? Go for Grand coalition of OVP-SPO, three party one of OVP-Greens-NEOS.  I presume OVP-NEOS is his preferred followed by OVP-Greens but if neither of those work, which of the first three is most likely and are there any we can rule out?

[Omega21]

Barring some unforseen event, its pretty clear Kurz will be re-elected, the question is what coalitions are most likely:

Does he bring back the right wing one of OVP-FPO? Go for Grand coalition of OVP-SPO, three party one of OVP-Greens-NEOS.  I presume OVP-NEOS is his preferred followed by OVP-Greens but if neither of those work, which of the first three is most likely and are there any we can rule out?

I think Kurz and the socialists are the most unlikely, as people are very much tired of it.

Kurz Greens and Neos would probably be more liked by people in general if the Greens did not touch anything related to welfare or migration.

[Tender Branson]

Here are OGMs results about which coalitions people want after the election:



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/ogm-kurier-umfrage-waehler-wollen-wieder-tuerkis-blau/400578614

[Tender Branson]

The state prosecution is also investigating the ÖVP in connection with the Ibiza-video and their "shredding scandal", where they secretly destroyed several hard-disks after the video emerged:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107420476/ibiza-affaere-ermittlungen-auch-wegen-steuer-und-staatsfeindlichkeit

All of this should be good news for SPÖ, NEOS, Greens and NOW - who could run on transparency over the next weeks, pushing up their vote share.

But I guess the SPÖ is still too incompetent again to take advantage of this. The SPÖ is like a football team that was awarded a penalty kick, but not from 11m distance but 3m distance to the goal and they would still not score ...

[Former President tack50]

Why is Hofer slightly more popular than Rendi Wagner?

[Omega21]

Why is Hofer slightly more popular than Rendi Wagner?

Because he draws FPÖ voters, and some Center-Right (ÖVP) voters, because he was always the "more moderate" face of the party.

He did not have any big scandals and was always more moderate than Strache.

[Tender Branson]

Why is Hofer slightly more popular than Rendi Wagner?

Because he draws FPÖ voters, and some Center-Right (ÖVP) voters, because he was always the "more moderate" face of the party.

He did not have any big scandals and was always more moderate than Strache.

Additionally, Hofer has the advantage of having already received 50% of the voters in presidential elections, therefore having good coverage among the electorate.

Considering the 2.5 million voters that Hofer already received, his 23% as Chancellor candidate are kinda mediocre.

But Hofer is definitely an asset for the FPÖ right now, because he’s polling higher than the party itself.

[Tender Branson]

A 11-person Muslim family from Palestine (refugees) is finally allowed to buy a fancy new home in the Vienna suburbs, after the mayor and many future neighbours fought them tooth-and-nail over the past months:



https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/muslimische-familie-darf-haus-in-weikendorf-doch-kaufen-skepsis-der-nachbarn-bleibt/400579064

The family moved to Vienna several years ago as stateless refugees from Palestine. The father was a teacher in Palestine and later had a restaurant in Vienna, which went broke. Currently, the family was living with friends at an apartment.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy a 200.000-500.000€ home in the Vienna suburbs as refugees, which is probably part of the concern for future neighbours - coupled with the cultural problem. Maybe they won the money in the lottery or something ?

Nonetheless, the family says that they are no terrorists and will throw a big party when they move into their new home and invite their critical neighbours ...

[Omega21]

A 11-person Muslim family from Palestine (refugees) is finally allowed to buy a fancy new home in the Vienna suburbs, after the mayor and many future neighbours fought them tooth-and-nail over the past months:



https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/muslimische-familie-darf-haus-in-weikendorf-doch-kaufen-skepsis-der-nachbarn-bleibt/400579064

The family moved to Vienna several years ago as stateless refugees from Palestine. The father was a teacher in Palestine and later had a restaurant in Vienna, which went broke. Currently, the family was living with friends at an apartment.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy a 200.000-500.000€ home in the Vienna suburbs as refugees, which is probably part of the concern for future neighbours - coupled with the cultural problem. Maybe they won the money in the lottery or something ?

Nonetheless, the family says that they are no terrorists and will throw a big party when they move into their new home and invite their critical neighbours ...

Wait, so I can just buy a 500k house without proving where my money came from?

I just think they are not investigating it due to their nationality, as I'm sure a Yugo with 500k in cash would not be allowed to buy something without any explanation, which would be common sense.

[President Johnson]

^^ Probably members of a so-called "Clan" or connected to one, who make a ton of money through various crime activities. It has gotten out of control in Berlin and law enforcement just recently started to get much tougher on them.

[Tender Branson]

A 11-person Muslim family from Palestine (refugees) is finally allowed to buy a fancy new home in the Vienna suburbs, after the mayor and many future neighbours fought them tooth-and-nail over the past months:



https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/muslimische-familie-darf-haus-in-weikendorf-doch-kaufen-skepsis-der-nachbarn-bleibt/400579064

The family moved to Vienna several years ago as stateless refugees from Palestine. The father was a teacher in Palestine and later had a restaurant in Vienna, which went broke. Currently, the family was living with friends at an apartment.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy a 200.000-500.000€ home in the Vienna suburbs as refugees, which is probably part of the concern for future neighbours - coupled with the cultural problem. Maybe they won the money in the lottery or something ?

Nonetheless, the family says that they are no terrorists and will throw a big party when they move into their new home and invite their critical neighbours ...

Wait, so I can just buy a 500k house without proving where my money came from?

I just think they are not investigating it due to their nationality, as I'm sure a Yugo with 500k in cash would not be allowed to buy something without any explanation, which would be common sense.

To me, the family makes an OK impression and I would not have a problem with them as neighbours.

On the other hand, I also understand their future neighbours and the concerns brought forward by them - even if they are just reasons of envy.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy such an expensive house as accepted refugees (who usually collect welfare money from the state). But maybe this is not the case here and as accepted refugees, the father and some other family members were able to get work and cash and a loan from a bank (which the article mentions) to buy the house or part of it.

Still, how does an Austrian bank award a house loan to a refugee family ? Usually, refugees are considered high-risk customers for banks because their asylum status can be revoked within short time and the people deported. Who's then paying back the loan to the bank ?

[Tender Branson]

^^ Probably members of a so-called "Clan" or connected to one, who make a ton of money through various crime activities. It has gotten out of control in Berlin and law enforcement just recently started to get much tougher on them.

Not sure this is the case here and there's probably no criminal activities involved.

Still, if I were an employee of a bank and a refugee comes in asking for a several hundred thousand € loan to buy a house, my alarm bells would go off. Their status as aslyum seekers could be revoked and they could be deported to Palestine again. And my job as bank employee would probably be over.

Also: the ÖVP-mayor of the town will appeal the decision by the state agency responsible to allow them the house purchase (also led by the ÖVP). Also, the FPÖ in the town is nuts over the purchase.

I wonder how the town will vote in the federal election next month ...

Here are the results from the 2017 election:

https://wahl17.bmi.gv.at/30860.html

The town voted a bit more ÖVP-FPÖ than Austria as a whole and voted 52-48 for Hofer (FPÖ) in the 2016 presidential election runoff (and by 57-43 in the invalidated runoff).

[Omega21]

A 11-person Muslim family from Palestine (refugees) is finally allowed to buy a fancy new home in the Vienna suburbs, after the mayor and many future neighbours fought them tooth-and-nail over the past months:



https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/muslimische-familie-darf-haus-in-weikendorf-doch-kaufen-skepsis-der-nachbarn-bleibt/400579064

The family moved to Vienna several years ago as stateless refugees from Palestine. The father was a teacher in Palestine and later had a restaurant in Vienna, which went broke. Currently, the family was living with friends at an apartment.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy a 200.000-500.000€ home in the Vienna suburbs as refugees, which is probably part of the concern for future neighbours - coupled with the cultural problem. Maybe they won the money in the lottery or something ?

Nonetheless, the family says that they are no terrorists and will throw a big party when they move into their new home and invite their critical neighbours ...

Wait, so I can just buy a 500k house without proving where my money came from?

I just think they are not investigating it due to their nationality, as I'm sure a Yugo with 500k in cash would not be allowed to buy something without any explanation, which would be common sense.

To me, the family makes an OK impression and I would not have a problem with them as neighbours.

On the other hand, I also understand their future neighbours and the concerns brought forward by them - even if they are just reasons of envy.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy such an expensive house as accepted refugees (who usually collect welfare money from the state). But maybe this is not the case here and as accepted refugees, the father and some other family members were able to get work and cash and a loan from a bank (which the article mentions) to buy the house or part of it.

Still, how does an Austrian bank award a house loan to a refugee family ? Usually, refugees are considered high-risk customers for banks because their asylum status can be revoked within short time and the people deported. Who's then paying back the loan to the bank ?

You are correct.

I would assume they could only get a loan with a very large down payment, but it would need to be significant enough so that even if they don't pay, they can just repossess the property and get their money easily (like if they put down 150,000+).

[Tender Branson]

Projected turnout for the Sept. 29 federal election, according to pollster OGM:

88-89%

https://www.ogm.at/innenpolitik/ogm-nrw-wahlumfrage-august-2019

In 2017, it was 80%.

In 2013, it was 75%.

A bit high if you ask me, I'd say more like 80-85% this time.

[Tender Branson]

Monday will be the unofficial start of the intensive campaign for the parties.

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) will be interviewed by the ORF during prime time for 1 hour as part of their summer interview series (NOW and NEOS candidates were already interviewed).

Also on Monday, the SPÖ will unveil their first poster campaign.

The Greens will unveil their first poster campaign next Friday.

ÖVP, FPÖ, NEOS will wait a bit longer with their campaign start (until early September) and NOW will not have election posters at all.

[Tender Branson]

The 2018 Report on Right-wing, Left-wing and Islamist extremism in Austria was released by the Interior Ministry:

https://www.bmi.gv.at/bmi_documents/2344.pdf

Islamic terrorism remains the largest threat to Austrian security because of IS fighters returning home and home-grown fanatics.

On the other hand, left-wing extremism cases dropped from 307 in 2017 to 237 in 2018.

Right-wing extremism cases rose from 1.576 to 1.622

Most of the cases in both camps are because of the anti-Nazi law (banned symbols etc.) or hate speech or incitement of hatred or minor offences such as vandalism.

Assault cases are extremely rare, but more common among left-wing extremists:

Left-wingers were responsible for 7 cases of heavy assault with injury, right-wingers just for 2 cases of assault.

No murders were reported because of left- or right-wing extremism.

[Tender Branson]

A goodie for DavidB.:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107484128/kickl-spricht-sich-strikt-gegen-identitaeren-verbot-aus

Kickl speaks out strongly against banning the Identitarian movement, as it would be an attack on free speech and assembly (which is guaranteed by the Constitution).

This is an answer to the ÖVP, which said today they want to take additional steps in the next government to ban political Islam and right-wing extremism.

[Tender Branson]

These are the most important topics for Austrian voters for the upcoming federal election, according to the new Ö24 poll:

% who say the following topic is important + very important for their vote choice

* Healthcare
* A fair tax system
* Security/Crime
* Education
* Affordable living/rents
* Fight against Corruption
* Climate Protection
* Administrative reforms
* Economic Policy
* Traffic
* Migration and Asylum
* European Politics
* Austria's reputation abroad

[Tender Branson]

Top: How would you rate the political mood/climate for this party right now ?

Bottom: How would different subgroups vote ?