Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Answered on 24 questions, except 2 i didn't understand.

Which ones ?

[Tender Branson]

Kurz making more moves towards ÖVP-Greens-NEOS:

https://www.krone.at/1981455

Kurz said he would be OK now if young asylum seekers in an apprenticeship with a company will not be deported during their 3-year apprenticeship (as is the case now).

Instead, they can complete it and only then will get their positive or negative asylum decision.

The FPÖ is not happy.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Sollen die verpflichtenden Rundfunkgebühren abgeschafft werden?
Soll der Einsatz staatlicher Überwachungssoftware (Bundestrojaner) für verschlüsselte Nachrichten und Messengerdienste erlaubt sein?

Sollen die Unternehmenssteuern gesenkt werden? -> I voted nein, but why ar ethe leftist parties for?
Soll das Amtsgeheimnis zugunsten eines Informationsfreiheitsgesetzes abgeschafft werden? -> what kind of secrets? I voted no this time
Soll eine verpflichtende Pflegeversicherung eingeführt werden? -> I voted yes, but why do leftist parties vote against?
Sollen allgemeine Studiengebühren eingeführt werden? -> Why do leftist parties vote against. I voted yes, but it's a local measure.
Soll die gemeinsame Schule der 10- bis 14-Jährigen eingeführt werden? -> which system does it have currently



results of this time.

[Tender Branson]

Sollen die verpflichtenden Rundfunkgebühren abgeschafft werden?

Austria has mandatory broadcasting fees (TV+Radio), which are paid by every household. Should the fee be abolished ?

Soll der Einsatz staatlicher Überwachungssoftware (Bundestrojaner) für verschlüsselte Nachrichten und Messengerdienste erlaubt sein?

That's about a sniffing software that is used by the police, based on a warrant from a prosecutor, where phones or computers of a suspect can be hacked and his/her activities monitored. Should it be allowed ?

Sollen die Unternehmenssteuern gesenkt werden? -> I voted nein, but why ar ethe leftist parties for?

Should corporate taxes be lowered ? The leftist parties are not voting for, only the SPÖ. All other lefist parties do not want them lowered. The SPÖ (together with ÖVP, FPÖ, NEOS) want some corporate taxes lowered, especially for small and medium-sized companies. But no on lower taxes for capital gains.

https://wahlkabine.at/nationalratswahl-2019/stellungnahmen

Soll das Amtsgeheimnis zugunsten eines Informationsfreiheitsgesetzes abgeschafft werden? -> what kind of secrets? I voted no this time

This is about the "administrative secrecy" provision in the Constitution, which requires all administrative workers (civil servants) not to release any administrative information to the public. This is in contrast to a transparent "administrative freedom of information law", which most other EU countries have already adopted. Should the law be abolished in favour of such a new administrative freedom of information law ?

Soll eine verpflichtende Pflegeversicherung eingeführt werden? -> I voted yes, but why do leftist parties vote against?

Should Austria introduce an old-age long-term-care insurance system (like Germany), or should old-age long-term-care continue to be paid out of the current budget ? This would shift the burden of planning for eventual old-age care from the state to the individual. Only the ÖVP is currently supporting it, all other parties are opposed and want the state to continue to pay for old-age care.

Sollen allgemeine Studiengebühren eingeführt werden? -> Why do leftist parties vote against. I voted yes, but it's a local measure.

Should tuition fees be introduced in Austria ? Currently, Austrian citizens + EU-citizens have to pay no tuition fees for studying at universities. Other citizens have to pay ca. 750€ per semester. All parties except ÖVP+NEOS say that access to universities and studies need to remain free of charge for everyone.

Soll die gemeinsame Schule der 10- bis 14-Jährigen eingeführt werden? -> which system does it have currently

Complicated and local. There are several types of schools for this age-group right now, but the talk among left-leaning parties in recent years was about introducing a fully comprehensive all-day school for the 10-14 year olds. Conservative parties are opposed to this merger and a common all-day school form and want to keep the individual forms instead. Some schools have tried experimenting with these forms and found it to be more inclusive, while critics have said that if it's too inclusive then good students will fall behind because more resources are being used for immigrant kids who need a lot of attention because of their lack of German etc. skills ...

[Tender Branson]

In the first 6 months, there were:

20.280 marriages in Austria, among them 480 by gay couples.

638 civil unions, among them 78 by gay couples.

So, 86% of gay couples chose marriage over civil unions.

Both the number of births and deaths decreased by about 3% in the first half of this year and the population increased by 18.000 to about 8.877.000 people.

Link

Link

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Changed my results considerably.

My answers:

Soll statt der Mindestsicherung ein bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen eingeführt werden? No
Soll die wöchentliche Arbeitszeit bei vollem Lohnausgleich auf 30 Stunden gekürzt werden? Yes
Soll Österreich das EU-Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen bestätigen? No
Sollen die Unternehmenssteuern gesenkt werden? No
Soll Erben steuerfrei bleiben? No
Soll das gesetzliche Pensionsantrittsalter erhöht werden? No
Soll eine unabhängige Behörde zur Untersuchung von Polizeiübergriffen eingerichtet werden? Yes
Sollen allgemeine Studiengebühren eingeführt werden? No
Soll die gemeinsame Schule der 10- bis 14-Jährigen eingeführt werden? No
Soll eine verpflichtende Mindestquote von 50 % Frauen auf allen KandidatInnenlisten zu Nationalrats- und Landtagswahlen eingeführt werden? No
Soll der Schutz vor Diskriminierung aufgrund der sexuellen Orientierung auch außerhalb der Arbeitswelt gelten? No
Sollen Schwangerschaftsabbrüche von der Krankenkasse übernommen werden? Yes
Sollen Asylwerbende eine Arbeitserlaubnis erhalten? No
Sollen straffällige Personen ohne österreichische Staatsbürgerschaft unabhängig von ihrer bisherigen Aufenthaltsdauer abgeschoben werden? Yes
Soll sich Österreich für eine zivile, EU-finanzierte Seenotrettung einsetzen? No
Soll das Amtsgeheimnis zugunsten eines Informationsfreiheitsgesetzes abgeschafft werden? Yes
Soll das allgemeine Wahlrecht auf Bundesebene auf österreichische StaatsbürgerInnen beschränkt bleiben? Yes
Soll der Rechnungshof alle Parteifinanzen prüfen und Strafen verhängen dürfen? Yes
Sollen die verpflichtenden Rundfunkgebühren abgeschafft werden? Yes
Sollen Internetforen verpflichtet werden die Klarnamen aller NutzerInnen zu erfassen und herauszugeben? No
Soll der Einsatz staatlicher Überwachungssoftware (Bundestrojaner) für verschlüsselte Nachrichten und Messengerdienste erlaubt sein? No
Soll Österreich sich für ein Ende der EU-Sanktionen gegen Russland einsetzen? Yes
Soll eine Impfpflicht für Kinderkrankheiten eingeführt werden? Yes
Soll eine verpflichtende Pflegeversicherung eingeführt werden? No
Soll ein flächendeckendes Pfandsystem für Getränkeverpackungen (Dosen, Plastikflaschen) eingeführt werden? Yes
Soll eine CO2-Steuer eingeführt werden? No

[Tender Branson]

First FPÖ poster campaign (I guess):



"Hofer: (Some)One, who is still living our values."

"Kickl: (Some)One, who is talking our language (or says things how they are)."

There is another one with Kickl, which says "One, who is protecting our homeland (Heimat)."

[Tender Branson]

First NEOS campaign poster:



"Connecting the environment & the economy. Nobody else does it."

[Tender Branson]

This is the actual 1st FPÖ poster campaign, as they have popped up around the city overnight and were presented at a press conference today (the ones I posted yesterday seem to be web ads):

   

"Fair. Social. Loyal to the homeland. Continue the coalition for our homeland."

The Kickl one has a double-meaning:

"Certainly for Austria." or "Providing security for Austria."

[Tender Branson]

1st Green poster campaign was presented today as well and they have 9 (!) different posters out (one with frontrunner Werner Kogler and 8 issue-oriented):

      

      

      

https://zurueckzudengruenen.at/themen

The Kogler poster says: "Clean Environment. Clean Politics. 29 September: Back to the Greens."

The other posters say: "Which party would [insert topic] vote for ?"

[Tender Branson]

The polls remain very stable, but the new Research/Ö24 poll has "other parties" rising to 4%.

"Other parties" include the far-left "Change" and the far-left KPÖ (Communists) and several small parties that are only running in some states, such as the Beer Party in Vienna or the Alliance of Patriots in Carinthia.

4% seems kinda high, but not impossible, especially if Change and KPÖ get 1% each and the Beer Party about 5% in Vienna as a protest option. 5% in Vienna would mean 1% Austria-wide.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Would the Beer Paryu get a seat in Vienna with those numbers?

[Tender Branson]

There will be another meeting of parliament just a few days before the election (the 1st meeting of the 2019-20 legislative session) and some 30-40 laws will be passed in this one.

NEOS has warned about costly election "gifts" and "gimmicks" just a few days before the election, which could be a burden for the budget - just to get a few more votes.

An example of this is that ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ have agreed today to vote for a 3.6% pension increase for 2020. This is good news for them and the retired people of Austria, the biggest and most important voting bloc and ÖVP and SPÖ's most loyal voters. The FPÖ does better with working-age people, but of course they remain populist and vote for it. NEOS will vote against.

The 3.6% pension increase is double the inflation rate of the past year and is also more than what most workers will get next year (I guess +2% on average).

Considering we'll have a budget surplus of ca. 0.5-1% of GDP this year, this is OK for a rise but if the laws and goodies for voters pile up during the session, it could end up like a massive budget problem as well, worth a few additional billions of € ...

https://orf.at/stories/3134674

[Tender Branson]

Would the Beer Party get a seat in Vienna with those numbers?

Absolutely not.

They would need a so-called "basic mandate" in one of the 7 regional election districts in Vienna. Their best chance is in Vienna-South, but even there they would need at least 17-20% for such a seat. I think the ÖVP got one with 17.8% there in the last election.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh I thought Vienna was all one big constituency, oops.

[Tender Branson]

Oh I thought Vienna was all one big constituency, oops.

The 183 seats in parliament are determined by a 3-layered system of Hare/Niemeyer and D'Hondt, first using the 39 electoral districts in Austria to calculate seats, then the remaining ones at the state and federal level.

[Former President tack50]

Would the Beer Party get a seat in Vienna with those numbers?

Absolutely not.

They would need a so-called "basic mandate" in one of the 7 regional election districts in Vienna. Their best chance is in Vienna-South, but even there they would need at least 17-20% for such a seat. I think the ÖVP got one with 17.8% there in the last election.

Tbh wouldn't the BPÖ have a chance in a regional election if they are at 5% in Vienna?

[Tender Branson]

Would the Beer Party get a seat in Vienna with those numbers?

Absolutely not.

They would need a so-called "basic mandate" in one of the 7 regional election districts in Vienna. Their best chance is in Vienna-South, but even there they would need at least 17-20% for such a seat. I think the ÖVP got one with 17.8% there in the last election.

Tbh wouldn't the BPÖ have a chance in a regional election if they are at 5% in Vienna?

But they are not at 5% in Vienna.

They could also be at just 0.5% there, nobody knows their potential.

And even with 5%, it could be spread very evenly among the districts - with some having 3% and the others 7%. But not the 18% that is required for a basic seat.

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" magazine poll (19.-22. August) shows SPÖ and FPÖ dropping to a record-low of 20% and the Greens reaching a record-high 12% in their poll:

Also, by a 48-46 margin, Austrians want the Greens in the next government.

47% of Austrians say that their image of Sebastian Kurz has worsened since the Ibiza affair, with 50% saying it has not.

35% of Austrians say that the FPÖ is still "fit" to be a government party, while 60% say they are not.

[Tender Branson]

Austria is starting to return children of female IS-fighters next week who went to Syria:

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/oesterreich-holt-kinder-von-is-anhaengerin-zurueck/400586198

This case is about a Bosnian immigrant girl who went to Syria at the age of 14 some 5 years ago and probably died during the final battle of Baghuz. A DNA test with the grandparents in Vienna identified the two boys, aged 1 and 3, as their relatives. They will be taken from the Kurdish Al-Hol camp to Vienna.

It is estimated that there are an additional 20 children with an Austria-connection in the camps in Syria, some with their mothers, some alone. One such case involves a native (!) Austrian girl from Salzburg, who converted to Islam and is now stuck in the camp with her 2 kids. Maybe they will be brought back as well during the interim government. If ÖVP-FPÖ win the election and form a government again, this window will close again and they will be stuck in Syria forever ...

[Tender Branson]

involves a native (!) Austrian girl from Salzburg,

This is not as suprising as you may think. In fact western converts to islam are much more likely to radicalize than immigrants are. Converts constitute an estimated 2-3% of Britain’s Muslims, yet converts have been involved in 31% of jihadist terrorism convictions in the UK.
For those interested here is a good Article on that issue: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/01/isis-criminals-converts/426822/

Oh and is it just me or is it disproportionately redheads?

I'm pretty mixed if the women + children should return. But I guess if they show remorse for their actions and are willing to face some court action, it's probably better for Austria to return them. Such camps like the al-Hol one are no places for small children to grow up.

https://www.news.at/a/is-braut-maria-kriegsgefangene-10834379

Link

In her case, it seemed she came out of a regular household but was taken to mosques in the Salzburg and Vienna area by Muslim friends and became a IS-sympathizer.

[Tender Branson]

Polls hardly have any numbers about projected turnout so far for the election, but the new Research/Ö24 poll says that their weekly poll only has 72% certain voters (which would be a record-low turnout for Austrian federal elections. The 2017 election had 80% and the previous record-low was 75% in 2013).

Ö24 also says that the 72% figure dropped from 77% certain voters the week ago, so this might just be a bad sample. On the other hand, the recent OGM poll put turnout at 88-89%, which is definitely too high.

I think the high 80% from 2017 might not be achieved again, because many people are certainly going to be pissed by all the Ibiza, party financing, shredding etc. scandals.

But who knows ?

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) is currently being interviewed in the town-hall-style PULS 4 „election arena“:

https://mobile.twitter.com/puls4/status/1165695825303019520
Hofer was first asked about his motivation to enter politics and mentioned the death of his sister at the age of 16. A fact that I didn’t know before (even though it is also mentioned on his Wikipedia page).

[Tender Branson]

Hofer has to deal with a lot of questions ranging from climate to more mental health financing to all-day child care and finally Ibiza:

https://mobile.twitter.com/puls4/status/1165702404525953031

[Tender Branson]

Green ad promoting their election program (choose "German" subtitles, then "translate"):

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