Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Sept. 29 federal election ?
#1
ÖVP
 
#2
SPÖ
 
#3
FPÖ
 
#4
NEOS
 
#5
NOW
 
#6
Greens
 
#7
KPÖ
 
#8
Change
 
#9
A regional party
 
#10
Invalid/Blank
 
#11
I wouldn't vote
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 110

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)  (Read 141919 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #800 on: August 27, 2019, 10:46:24 AM »

Yesterday evening during primetime, SPÖ-leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner was interviewed by the public ORF as part of the "summer interview" series and was interrupted 4 times by an elephant nearby:



Starting at minute 13:13 ... Tongue
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crals
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« Reply #801 on: August 27, 2019, 10:49:34 AM »

Why is the SPOe doing so poorly in polls even? Is Rendi-Wagner an ineffective leader?
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urutzizu
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« Reply #802 on: August 27, 2019, 10:58:04 AM »

Yesterday evening during primetime, SPÖ-leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner was interviewed by the public ORF as part of the "summer interview" series and was interrupted 4 times by an elephant nearby:



Starting at minute 13:13 ... Tongue

Ich dachte das ist ein Sommergespräch und keine Elefantenrunde? Smiley
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #803 on: August 27, 2019, 10:59:26 AM »

Why is the SPOe doing so poorly in polls even? Is Rendi-Wagner an ineffective leader?

There are many reasons ...

A combination of impeaching Kurz (which a lot of voters didn't want), internal chaos and infighting in the SPÖ (or at least some people like Doskozil and the Tyrol-SPÖ leader doing what they want) and Rendi-Wagner is seen as competent (on health care), but not really able to clean up the party, be a real "boss" or make the party fit for government. She wasn't even able to turn it into a proper opposition party in the last 2 years. And all the immigration-critical voters have already abandoned the SPÖ for the FPÖ.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #804 on: August 27, 2019, 11:29:57 PM »

First Kurz/ÖVP poster campaign:



Same slogan as the Kickl web-ad from the FPÖ.

"Someone, who's talking our language (or says how things are). That's my Chancellor."
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DavidB.
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« Reply #805 on: August 28, 2019, 04:23:10 AM »

So Hofer-Kickl now have issues with Strache?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #806 on: August 28, 2019, 10:43:28 AM »

So Hofer-Kickl now have issues with Strache?

Strache has become a pariah in the FPÖ and this will not change until a court finds him guilty or clears him.

I wouldn’t say „issues“, but they want him to remain silent for the next month.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #807 on: August 28, 2019, 10:50:34 AM »

The ÖVP has a total of 4 posters for their first wave:



The Sprache slogan has already been used before by Kickl, Strache and Jörg Haider.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #808 on: August 28, 2019, 12:39:05 PM »

I am guessing OVP barring some major scandal or something really dramatic happening wins.  Question is will OVP + Greens or OVP + NEOS be enough or will OVP need both to govern.  If both become feasible, which is more likely?  I would think Neos would be more aligned than Greens although usually junior left wing parties take a hit and looking at how things are going in Germany and to a lesser extent in Netherlands there is a possibility Greens could replace SPO as main left wing party and I think today's left (your urban younger educated types vs. your smaller city blue collar types of the past) makes Greens better positioned long term to appeal to left.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #809 on: August 28, 2019, 01:14:14 PM »

IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SPÖ
13% FPÖ
13% ÖVP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html
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bigic
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« Reply #810 on: August 28, 2019, 02:58:43 PM »

IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SPÖ
13% FPÖ
13% ÖVP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Pretty interesting - ÖVP support among the LGBT people is much lower than in the general population, while the FPÖ's support is much more balanced across the sexual orientations. Why is ÖVP so unpopular in the LGBT community - do they have a history of homophobia?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #811 on: August 28, 2019, 11:39:34 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2019, 11:49:38 PM by Tender Branson »

IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SPÖ
13% FPÖ
13% ÖVP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Pretty interesting - ÖVP support among the LGBT people is much lower than in the general population, while the FPÖ's support is much more balanced across the sexual orientations. Why is ÖVP so unpopular in the LGBT community - do they have a history of homophobia?

The ÖVP has homophobia written all over them (despite what Kurz says now).

If it weren't for the courts, the ÖVP would not have moved a cm on this topic or the topics involving it.

Another reason could be that most gays/lesbians are living in urban areas, by moving there or because they are less likely to declare to pollsters as gay/lesbian in rural areas.

Therefore, the poll results skew urban and in urban areas the ÖVP does generally much worse than in the countryside. Unless they have weighted the results for urban/rural, then I might be wrong.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #812 on: August 29, 2019, 01:40:53 AM »

IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SPÖ
13% FPÖ
13% ÖVP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Pretty interesting - ÖVP support among the LGBT people is much lower than in the general population, while the FPÖ's support is much more balanced across the sexual orientations. Why is ÖVP so unpopular in the LGBT community - do they have a history of homophobia?

The ÖVP is the party of rural religious Catholics... so well. 
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DL
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« Reply #813 on: August 29, 2019, 11:08:43 AM »

IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SPÖ
13% FPÖ
13% ÖVP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Who are the LGBTQ people who would vote FPO? Do they have framed portraits of Ernst Roehm over their mantelpieces?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #814 on: August 29, 2019, 11:14:23 AM »

IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SPÖ
13% FPÖ
13% ÖVP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Who are the LGBTQ people who would vote FPO? Do they have framed portraits of Ernst Roehm over their mantelpieces?

They exist. One of my former co-workers was gay and he was highly racist.

Plus, Jörg Haider was probably secretly gay too and surrounded himself with other young gay men.
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DL
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« Reply #815 on: August 29, 2019, 11:19:21 AM »
« Edited: August 29, 2019, 11:29:03 AM by DL »

IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SPÖ
13% FPÖ
13% ÖVP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Who are the LGBTQ people who would vote FPO? Do they have framed portraits of Ernst Roehm over their mantelpieces?

They exist. One of my former co-workers was gay and he was highly racist.

Plus, Jörg Haider was probably secretly gay too and surrounded himself with other young gay men.

In other words they are the modern day equivalent of the Roehm wing of the early Nazi party - before "you know who" had them all killed off.

Seriously though I surprised that the NEOS party wouldn't do better among LGBTQ people. I would have thought that they would be highly appealing to the subset of gay men in particular who are "I'm rich, beautiful and successful (or I at least want to identify with rich, beautiful successful people) and therefore I want low taxes and less government regulation - but keep me safe from that socially conservative religious crap"
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #816 on: August 29, 2019, 11:23:53 AM »

IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SPÖ
13% FPÖ
13% ÖVP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Who are the LGBTQ people who would vote FPO? Do they have framed portraits of Ernst Roehm over their mantelpieces?

They exist. One of my former co-workers was gay and he was highly racist.

Plus, Jörg Haider was probably secretly gay too and surrounded himself with other young gay men.

In other words they are the modern day equivalent of the Roehm wing of the early Naziu party - before "you know who" had them all killed off.

Seriously though I surprised that the NEOS party wouldn't do better among LGBTQ people. I would have thought that they would be highly appealing to the subset of gay men in particular who are "I'm rich, beautiful and successful (or I at least want to identify with rich, beautiful successful people) and therefore I want low taxes and less government regulation - but keep me safe from that socially conservative religious crap"

10% of gay men voting NEOS is above average anyway (they are polling at 7-8%).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #817 on: August 29, 2019, 11:30:35 AM »

SPÖ spot:


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DL
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« Reply #818 on: August 29, 2019, 11:33:30 AM »


10% of gay men voting NEOS is above average anyway (they are polling at 7-8%).

I'm aware of that - but its very marginal. If I were trying to engineer a party that was specifically designed to appeal to that more economically conservative segment of LGBTQ people - it would look a lot like NEOS. Why would anyone LGBTQ who was more right of centre vote OVP or FPO when NEOS seems like a party that would be so perfect for them? (well OK, I guess for the FPO voters maybe NEOS isn't racist enough)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #819 on: August 29, 2019, 11:46:20 AM »

10% of gay men voting NEOS is above average anyway (they are polling at 7-8%).

I'm aware of that - but its very marginal. If I were trying to engineer a party that was specifically designed to appeal to that more economically conservative segment of LGBTQ people - it would look a lot like NEOS. Why would anyone LGBTQ who was more right of centre vote OVP or FPO when NEOS seems like a party that would be so perfect for them? (well OK, I guess for the FPO voters maybe NEOS isn't racist enough)

One would think that NEOS and Greens are the „perfect“ parties for gays, but that doesn’t explain the high share for the FPÖ.

On the other hand, some 35-40% of young hetero men would vote for the FPÖ, so the FPÖ-share among gay men is already far below average.

All this poll shows is that homosexuals here are not a homogeneous voter block, like a 2-party system in the US would suggest, where gays and lesbians vote 80%+ Democratic.
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DL
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« Reply #820 on: August 29, 2019, 11:54:27 AM »


All this poll shows is that homosexuals here are not a homogeneous voter block, like a 2-party system in the US would suggest, where gays and lesbians vote 80%+ Democratic.

That goes without saying...but if the US had proportional representation and 5 or 6 parties represented in Congress, i suspect that percentage of LGBTQ people who would vote for a small party representing the homophobic, anti-intellectual, evangelical Christian wing of the GOP led by some sarah Palin or Mike Pence type - would be in low single digits...
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #821 on: August 29, 2019, 05:17:15 PM »

LGBTQ+ people in the US isn't a heterogeneous political group either (pun sort of half intended), even though most of them fall with-in the big tent of the democratic party, but you get everything from your Mayor Pete is our sexy lord and savior centrist type to the Mayor Pete is a Conservative fraud and only Bernie Sanders can overthrow capitalist oppression socialist type...

As for the gay voters who votes for parties like the FPÖ or Sweden Democrats, they (based on my own non-scientific anecdotal experience) range from people who're mostly just worried about anti-gay sentiments among non-European immigrants, to people who're just plain racist. You don't really have to spend a lot of time on Grindr (or wherever the kids get their nudes these days) to realize that there are plenty of bigoted gay men out there.

As a matter of fact one of the first guys I went on a date with was an Australian exchange student who turned out to be an overt misogynist, who among other stuff claimed he only dated and slept with men because women were so "thoroughly disgusting" and spent a considerable amount of our date telling me how revolting Julia Gillard's body and personality was... Gays are not automatic angles is all I'm trying to say.
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DL
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« Reply #822 on: August 29, 2019, 07:56:22 PM »

LGBTQ+ people in the US isn't a heterogeneous political group either (pun sort of half intended), even though most of them fall with-in the big tent of the democratic party, but you get everything from your Mayor Pete is our sexy lord and savior centrist type to the Mayor Pete is a Conservative fraud and only Bernie Sanders can overthrow capitalist oppression socialist type...

As for the gay voters who votes for parties like the FPÖ or Sweden Democrats, they (based on my own non-scientific anecdotal experience) range from people who're mostly just worried about anti-gay sentiments among non-European immigrants, to people who're just plain racist. You don't really have to spend a lot of time on Grindr (or wherever the kids get their nudes these days) to realize that there are plenty of bigoted gay men out there.

As a matter of fact one of the first guys I went on a date with was an Australian exchange student who turned out to be an overt misogynist, who among other stuff claimed he only dated and slept with men because women were so "thoroughly disgusting" and spent a considerable amount of our date telling me how revolting Julia Gillard's body and personality was... Gays are not automatic angles is all I'm trying to say.

Then there are the ones whose role model is J. Edgar Hoover
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #823 on: August 29, 2019, 11:08:04 PM »

Weekly Ö24 poll:



With just a month to go, the race for 1st place seems to be decided, as more than 80% of Austrians have decided on their vote choice. The race for 2nd and 4th are still pretty open, but I guess advantage for the SPÖ and Greens.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #824 on: August 29, 2019, 11:10:15 PM »

Weekly Ö24 poll:



With just a month to go, the race for 1st place seems to be decided, as more than 80% of Austrians have decided on their vote choice. The race for 2nd and 4th are still pretty open, but I guess advantage for the SPÖ and Greens.

How likely is either an OVP-Neos or OVP-Green coalition or will Kurz likely need both of them and if both are viable, which would be more likely.
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