Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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  Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Sept. 29 federal election ?
#1
ÖVP
 
#2
SPÖ
 
#3
FPÖ
 
#4
NEOS
 
#5
NOW
 
#6
Greens
 
#7
KPÖ
 
#8
Change
 
#9
A regional party
 
#10
Invalid/Blank
 
#11
I wouldn't vote
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 110

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)  (Read 141945 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #825 on: August 29, 2019, 11:16:24 PM »

How likely is either an OVP-Neos or OVP-Green coalition or will Kurz likely need both of them and if both are viable, which would be more likely.

ÖVP-NEOS would definitely be too weak.

ÖVP-Greens in the right circumstances would be possible, if the Greens get around 15% - while the SPÖ totally collapses even behind the FPÖ.

But I wonder if Kurz will then really go for ÖVP-Greens, as the Greens are making clear right now during the campaign that Kurz will have to get serious on the topic of combating climate change and introduce far-reaching measures.

Kurz could then instead go for a coalition with a destroyed SPÖ under new leadership (a possibility which is gaining ground among experts right now) or with the FPÖ (but that is more unlikely).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #826 on: August 30, 2019, 08:43:58 AM »

Weird new FPÖ ad („couple therapy“) in which Norbert Hofer tries to convince Sebastian Kurz to continue their ÖVP-FPÖ marriage:


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Former President tack50
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« Reply #827 on: August 30, 2019, 08:59:06 AM »

How likely is either an OVP-Neos or OVP-Green coalition or will Kurz likely need both of them and if both are viable, which would be more likely.

ÖVP-NEOS would definitely be too weak.

ÖVP-Greens in the right circumstances would be possible, if the Greens get around 15% - while the SPÖ totally collapses even behind the FPÖ.

But I wonder if Kurz will then really go for ÖVP-Greens, as the Greens are making clear right now during the campaign that Kurz will have to get serious on the topic of combating climate change and introduce far-reaching measures.

Kurz could then instead go for a coalition with a destroyed SPÖ under new leadership (a possibility which is gaining ground among experts right now) or with the FPÖ (but that is more unlikely).

Why would SPÖ agree to that? Do they want to end like the SPD in Germany?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #828 on: August 30, 2019, 10:39:48 AM »

How likely is either an OVP-Neos or OVP-Green coalition or will Kurz likely need both of them and if both are viable, which would be more likely.

ÖVP-NEOS would definitely be too weak.

ÖVP-Greens in the right circumstances would be possible, if the Greens get around 15% - while the SPÖ totally collapses even behind the FPÖ.

But I wonder if Kurz will then really go for ÖVP-Greens, as the Greens are making clear right now during the campaign that Kurz will have to get serious on the topic of combating climate change and introduce far-reaching measures.

Kurz could then instead go for a coalition with a destroyed SPÖ under new leadership (a possibility which is gaining ground among experts right now) or with the FPÖ (but that is more unlikely).

Why would SPÖ agree to that? Do they want to end like the SPD in Germany?

Now that the SPÖ has lost 5% in opposition, they might think that at least they have some power in such a new coalition by getting some cabinet posts.

That's better than losing polling support and having no power at all ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #829 on: August 30, 2019, 11:14:25 AM »

The state of Styria might have slightly earlier state elections than planned.

Usually, Styria (ÖVP-SPÖ government) would vote in May 2020 after a 5-year term - but the FPÖ has introduced a early vote proposal in the state parliament recently.

The ÖVP-Governor (who until recently was strongly opposed to early elections) said "he'll think about it to avoid a constant campaign atmosphere until next May".

The SPÖ calls it a bullsh*t move and reminded him that voters wanted the government to complete the full term.

Today it seemed that ÖVP+FPÖ+Greens have all agreed to support early elections, probably to be held in November.

Those 3 parties are currently polling really well in Styria and in the case of the Greens everywhere, so that is certainly a reason behind it.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/schwarz-blau-gruen-neuwahlen-in-der-steiermark-praktisch-fix/400591859
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Cranberry
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« Reply #830 on: August 30, 2019, 12:27:29 PM »

Why is the SPOe doing so poorly in polls even? Is Rendi-Wagner an ineffective leader?

At least part of the answer to that lies in the fact that the SPÖ not losing votes in 2017 was for the largest part due to "borrowed" votes from the Greens that were never going to stay once the Greens got their act together again - i.e. a large portion of 2017 SPÖ voters used to reliably vote Green before and do now again so (look no further than the results in Vienna's 7th district for the perfect example) The "real" loss of votes for the SPÖ, or better the left-wing camp in general, was between 2013 and 2017 - in the last two years all changes were basically intra-bloc (FPÖ -> ÖVP, SPÖ+Jetzt -> Greens), with Neos in the middle syphoning off a few votes from everywhere; quite interestingly, the balance of power between left and right has changed remarkably little.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #831 on: August 31, 2019, 01:26:21 AM »

70% of Austrian voters support a general 1.700€ minimum wage (14x per year*), like the SPÖ has proposed in their election program:

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190831_OTS0001/profil-umfrage-70-der-oesterreicher-sind-fuer-einen-mindestlohn-von-1700-euro-in-allen-berufsgruppen

* The 13th and 14th wages are taxed a bit differently, resulting in slightly higher net wages for the employee than the regular 12 net wages.

That's ca. 14.30$/hour in US-terms. The Greens are calling for a 1.750€ general minimum wage (15$/hour).

Currently, wages are set and raised each year through negotiations of the so-called Social Partnership - which includes members of the employer side and employee side (= union representatives). I for example are represented in the metal industry bargaining talks, which is a branch that historically has relatively high wages and good wage increases (like the +4% or so last year).



Each branch of the labour market therefore has their own set of wages and wage increases. There are still some areas where the minimum wage is quite low, such as for the restaurant, cleaning or hotel business, who would benefit from such a general minimum wage. ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS are largely opposed to such a general minimum wage, because "it would hurt business owners". Their voters on the other hand support it though, according to the poll.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #832 on: August 31, 2019, 07:26:51 AM »

Here are some charts from the recent Ö24 poll (vote by state and by age):

The ÖVP might indeed win Burgenland and Carinthia, which would be historical. They have not done so in more than 50 years. That's like Republicans winning MA or MN during a Presidential election.

Even Vienna is an option. The ÖVP or Christian-Socials have never won there in over 130 years.



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parochial boy
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« Reply #833 on: August 31, 2019, 07:31:37 AM »

That's actually the second poll I've seen with relatively decent (by comparison) numbers for SPÖ with the under 30s - that's kind of goes against the received wisdom about who their electorate normally consists of.
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Cranberry
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« Reply #834 on: August 31, 2019, 01:16:16 PM »

That's actually the second poll I've seen with relatively decent (by comparison) numbers for SPÖ with the under 30s - that's kind of goes against the received wisdom about who their electorate normally consists of.

Exit polls from the EP election showed a similar picture - Greens and Neos stronger the younger the voters, SPÖ and FPÖ basically even throughout all ages, ÖVP stronger the older with a huge lead among pensioners. Compare that to 2013 for instance to get a completely different picture more align with the SPD electorate, for instance. It seems to me as if the left- to right- exodus between 13 and 17 was carried much more by older voters, while it largely glossed over the under 30.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #835 on: September 02, 2019, 10:51:50 AM »

Final number of eligible voters:

6.396.796

Down from 6.400.993 during the 2017 election.

First time since 1995 that the number of eligible voters has decreased for a federal election.

Reasons: More Austrian citizens are dying than being born right now, which is not compensated any longer by enough naturalisations of foreigners, or by additional Austrians abroad registering to vote.

PDF-Link
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #836 on: September 02, 2019, 11:18:48 PM »

Tonight @ 6.30pm, the 1st big TV debate involving all major candidates (Kurz, PRW, Hofer, Kogler, Meinl-Reisinger, Pilz) will take place on ORF III:

Link
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #837 on: September 03, 2019, 11:08:15 AM »

The City of Vienna reported today that they have already received more than 100.000 postal ballot requests.

4 weeks before the election.

At the same time before the 2017 election, they received 35.000 requests.

In total, 206.000 were then requested for the election.
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crals
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« Reply #838 on: September 03, 2019, 11:45:53 AM »

Tonight @ 6.30pm, the 1st big TV debate involving all major candidates (Kurz, PRW, Hofer, Kogler, Meinl-Reisinger, Pilz) will take place on ORF III:

Link
Why Pilz instead of the actual party leader?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #839 on: September 03, 2019, 11:53:41 AM »

Tonight @ 6.30pm, the 1st big TV debate involving all major candidates (Kurz, PRW, Hofer, Kogler, Meinl-Reisinger, Pilz) will take place on ORF III:

Link
Why Pilz instead of the actual party leader?

Pilz is 1st on their election list and has always been the "party leader" in reality. Maria Stern is only the alibi-leader of the party.

BTW: the debate has now started (see link) and Kurz is heavily attacked by SPÖ (would have been too powerful with a minority government, that's why we ousted him), NEOS (not transparent enough on party finances), Pilz (totally corrupt and the 2nd Ibiza party). Kogler from the Greens has not yet spoken.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #840 on: September 03, 2019, 11:59:02 AM »

Kogler (Greens) with extremely good arguments about the non-existing ÖVP, FPÖ, SPÖ party finance transparency ... agreeing with NEOS and Pilz, who are the only 2 other parties with transparent finances.

Should be noted that the ÖVP received 3 million € in donations last year on top of Europe's highest public party financing and 1 million of it from Austrian billionaire Heidi Horten.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #841 on: September 03, 2019, 12:18:04 PM »

Kogler (Greens):

"This government has been concreting us back to the past." (... investing billions of € in a new runway at Vienna's airport)

"Austria must not become the parking lot of Europe." (... massive car/truck transit through Austria and overtourism)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #842 on: September 04, 2019, 12:07:09 PM »

DavidB. could soon become an Austrian citizen (if he wants to):

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108198775/doppelpass-fuer-nachfahren-von-ns-opfern-kommt-doch

ÖVP-FPÖ had dual citizenship for relatives of former Nazi-victims on their agenda before their coalition blew apart.

Now, NEOS is taking another step and will introduce a law in the September parliamentary sessions, the last ones before the election.

It seems all parties will vote in favour to grant relatives of Nazi victims all over the world Austrian citizenship (if they can somehow prove that they once lived here).
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #843 on: September 05, 2019, 02:56:10 AM »

DavidB. could soon become an Austrian citizen (if he wants to):

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108198775/doppelpass-fuer-nachfahren-von-ns-opfern-kommt-doch

ÖVP-FPÖ had dual citizenship for relatives of former Nazi-victims on their agenda before their coalition blew apart.

Now, NEOS is taking another step and will introduce a law in the September parliamentary sessions, the last ones before the election.

It seems all parties will vote in favour to grant relatives of Nazi victims all over the world Austrian citizenship (if they can somehow prove that they once lived here).

Spain, Romania (I think?), and Portugal all have variants of laws like this, which is handy given the massive brain drain of Israelis to Europe. These laws may or may not be designed to lure well-educated Israeli yuppies to Europe (as if they needed a law to do that!), but in any case it definitely is smart given European demographic realities.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #844 on: September 05, 2019, 05:23:42 AM »

DavidB. could soon become an Austrian citizen (if he wants to):

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108198775/doppelpass-fuer-nachfahren-von-ns-opfern-kommt-doch

ÖVP-FPÖ had dual citizenship for relatives of former Nazi-victims on their agenda before their coalition blew apart.

Now, NEOS is taking another step and will introduce a law in the September parliamentary sessions, the last ones before the election.

It seems all parties will vote in favour to grant relatives of Nazi victims all over the world Austrian citizenship (if they can somehow prove that they once lived here).

Spain, Romania (I think?), and Portugal all have variants of laws like this, which is handy given the massive brain drain of Israelis to Europe. These laws may or may not be designed to lure well-educated Israeli yuppies to Europe (as if they needed a law to do that!), but in any case it definitely is smart given European demographic realities.

Germany also has such a law. It has helped lure many wealthy young Israelis, especially in the tech industry, to places like Berlin. It is part of a sad irony, of course: Just as more and more European Jews are leaving Germany, France and other European countries for Israel over increasing antisemitism, Israeli Jews are coming here because they are uncomfortable with the Situation in Israel.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #845 on: September 05, 2019, 11:03:45 AM »

3 major elections coming up:

29.09. Federal Election
13.10. Vorarlberg State Election
24.11. Styria State Election (date confirmed today)

Next year: Burgenland and Vienna
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #846 on: September 05, 2019, 12:28:03 PM »

New poll by Karmasin Research & Identity for PULS24 News (n=3.000 people this week, aged 16+, online+phone):



This is a new weekly tracking poll.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #847 on: September 05, 2019, 12:45:49 PM »

The pollster is Sophie Karmasin (on the right), who comes from a prominent opinion polling family. Their parents founded the Austrian Gallup Institute and she was former Minister of Youth and Families between 2013-17, an Independent appointed by the Mitterlehner-ÖVP.

Interestingly, Sabine Beinschab (owner of Research Affairs), which does weekly polls for the tabloid newspaper Ö24, has previously also worked for Karmasin/Gallup.

The Karmasin and Research Affairs poll results are therefore pretty similar, maybe because they use similar methods ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #848 on: September 05, 2019, 03:09:02 PM »

Here’s another „vote cabin“ tool for the election:

https://wahlhelfer.wienerzeitung.at

I got the Greens again.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #849 on: September 05, 2019, 03:36:07 PM »

No percentages this time but I got Jetzt>SPÖ=Grüne>Neos>FPÖ>ÖVP
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