Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

The Greens also had their campaign kickoff event in Vienna yesterday and frontrunner Werner Kogler got some help from German Green-leader Robert Habeck:

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:



Yesterday, the Neo-Nazi Identitarian Movement held a demonstration in Vienna to remember the 1683 defeat of the invading Turks at the gates of Vienna.

Among the torch-carrying marchers: Ursula Stenzel (FPÖ-Vienna)

Ursula Stenzel is not just some random FPÖ-member, but her story is telling.

In the 1990s, she was a prominent and highly reputable ORF journalist in Vienna's media schickeria (scene).

She went on to become a member of the EU parliament for the ÖVP.

A couple years ago she switched to the FPÖ and is now marching with the Neo-Nazis and gave a speech yesterday warning of "Islam invasion".

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FPÖ is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".

[TheSaint250]

New OGM federal election poll for the battleground state of Styria:

Have there been other similar state-based polls for the federal election recently?

[Tender Branson]

New OGM federal election poll for the battleground state of Styria:

Have there been other similar state-based polls for the federal election recently?

Not individual ones like this.

But the weekly Ö24 polls usually have small sub-samples of 100-200 people for each state.

[Keep Calm and ...]

New OGM federal election poll for the battleground state of Styria:

Have there been other similar state-based polls for the federal election recently?

Not individual ones like this.

But the weekly Ö24 polls usually have small sub-samples of 100-200 people for each state.

These sub-samples are listet here.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:

(...)

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FPÖ is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".

Hofer said today he will stand by Stenzel and will not call for her resignation.

There goes any credibility that Hofer had ...

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/anger-after-austrian-politician-ursula-stenzel-with-jewish-roots-speaks-at-far-right-rally-1.488398

First he said "zero tolerance" when it comes to the Identitarians, now he doesn't mind it.

[Tender Branson]

The Stenzel-affair also shows once again the absurdity of her job.

Stenzel is a so-called "Nicht-amtsführende Stadträtin" in Vienna for the FPÖ (= a city-council member without portfolio). Yes, this exists in Vienna.

A "city-council member without portfolio" is someone in the city government with a job in name only, who gets paid 9.000€ a month 14x per year, without having to do anything.

Contrary to the city-council members with portfolio.

To get rid of these 5 useless posts, the Austrian (!) - not the Vienna - constitution needs to be changed with a 2/3 majority in both chambers of parliament.

Only in Austria ...

NEOS has now introduced a bill to get rid of Stenzel's job.

[President Johnson]

The FPÖ is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:

(...)

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FPÖ is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".

Hofer said today he will stand by Stenzel and will not call for her resignation.

There goes any credibility that Hofer had ...

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/anger-after-austrian-politician-ursula-stenzel-with-jewish-roots-speaks-at-far-right-rally-1.488398

First he said "zero tolerance" when it comes to the Identitarians, now he doesn't mind it.

That's absolutely disgusting, but the FPÖ will end up in a coalition with Mr. Kurz anyway.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:

(...)

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FPÖ is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".

Hofer said today he will stand by Stenzel and will not call for her resignation.

There goes any credibility that Hofer had ...

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/anger-after-austrian-politician-ursula-stenzel-with-jewish-roots-speaks-at-far-right-rally-1.488398

First he said "zero tolerance" when it comes to the Identitarians, now he doesn't mind it.

That's absolutely disgusting, but the FPÖ will end up in a coalition with Mr. Kurz anyway.

Right now, it seems as if no coalition at all can be formed.

The ÖVP is really pissed at the FPÖ and SPÖ right now and the Greens do not want to govern with the ÖVP.

Tricky.

But it’s election campaign and we have to wait and see.

[DL]

Could the OVP form a minority government if there is no coalition partner for them? Or is Austria like Germany in terms of minority gov't being "verboten"?

[Tender Branson]

Could the OVP form a minority government if there is no coalition partner for them? Or is Austria like Germany in terms of minority gov't being "verboten"?

They could, but it wouldn't work for more than a few days or weeks.

There is too much hate against the ÖVP from all the left-wing parties and even the FPÖ wouldn't tolerate them for long. Once there's some FPÖ scandal again, the ÖVP would call for big consequences for them and the FPÖ parliamentarians would revoke their support for tolerating the ÖVP. It would definitely need a formal coalition contract to keep them together.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP's parliamentary group leader August Wöginger has created a firestorm recently at a campaign speech in his Upper Austria.

He said to the crowd in a patriarchal manner:

"It cannot be that our children go to Vienna (to study etc.) and come back as Greens. If someone eats and sleeps in our homes, they have to vote ÖVP !"

https://diepresse.com/home/meinung/marginalien/5687101/Die-Angst-der-OeVP-vor-dem-verlorenen-Sohn

[Tender Branson]

IMAD federal election poll for Tyrol:

37.6% ÖVP (-0.8% compared with 2017)
19.4% FPÖ (-5.7%)
17.8% SPÖ (-3.0%)
13.6% Greens (+9.1%)
  8.3% NEOS (+2.6%)
  3.3% Others (-2.2%)

Most important issues for Tyrol voters on Sept. 29:

58% climate/environment
48% traffic/transit
38% education
38% finances/budget
35% migration/integration

https://www.krone.at/1992029

I think this is the 1st poll ever showing the ÖVP dropping compared with 2017.

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll: ÖVP+FPÖ losing.



https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190912_OTS0198/oesterreich-umfrage-oevp-und-fpoe-verlieren-neos-legen-zu

---

Another poll today, with a much larger sample of 3.000 people (Karmasin/Puls 24 weekly tracking poll), shows almost the exact same numbers:

35% ÖVP
22% SPÖ (+1)
19% FPÖ (-1)
12% Greens
  9% NEOS
  2% NOW (+1)
  1% Others (-1)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108559530/karmasin-umfrage-sieht-spoe-drei-prozentpunkte-vor-fpoe

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

why is JETZT gaining slightly? obviously it won't be enough to pass the threshold, but it is odd.

[bigic]

why is JETZT gaining slightly? obviously it won't be enough to pass the threshold, but it is odd.

The gain is probably within the margin of error.

[Tender Branson]

why is JETZT gaining slightly? obviously it won't be enough to pass the threshold, but it is odd.

The gain is probably within the margin of error.

Not sure if they are really gaining, but Peter Pilz is a really clever and skilled debater.

During the recent TV debates and duels with Kurz he strongly attacked the former Kurzzeit-Chancellor (= short period Chancellor) on all his campaign finance and shredding scandals and inconsistencies, his ties to the not-so-patriotic FPÖ and ruled out as the only party leader a coalition with Kurz.

Pilz said: "If you vote ÖVP, you get Kurz. If you vote SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens or NEOS, you will get Kurz. If you vote for us, you can be sure that we are not jumping into bed with Kurz. We are the only real opposition."

[Tender Branson]

Immigration/integration/asylum not even in the TOP-5 of the most important issues any longer for Austrians voting in the federal election on Sept. 29:

https://twitter.com/puls24news/status/1172187389164445696

[urutzizu]

Immigration/integration/asylum not even in the TOP-5 of the most important issues any longer for Austrians voting in the federal election on Sept. 29:

https://twitter.com/puls24news/status/1172187389164445696

Will this harm the FPÖ? It does seem that unlike certain other far-right parties, namely the AFD, that the FPÖ actually has some competency in the eyes of the public on other issues, such as Taxation.

Also why is Corruption so low? Ibiza was the whole reason for this election. Have the public forgotten about it?

[Tender Branson]

Immigration/integration/asylum not even in the TOP-5 of the most important issues any longer for Austrians voting in the federal election on Sept. 29:

https://twitter.com/puls24news/status/1172187389164445696

Will this harm the FPÖ? It does seem that unlike certain other far-right parties, namely the AFD, that the FPÖ actually has some competency in the eyes of the public on other issues, such as Taxation.

Also why is Corruption so low? Ibiza was the whole reason for this election. Have the public forgotten about it?

Well, even without immigration being an important topic in this election the FPÖ still has a loyal base of at least 15-17%, which will vote for them no matter what as a protest option.

It is certainly keeping a few voters away from them though who would have voted for them if immigration were more of a topic.

Corruption is probably not ranked higher as an important topic because voters think there was no actual corruption taking place.

Voters think Strache might have been a fool and stupid by what he said on Ibiza, but no real corruption has taken place. Voters have certainly not forgotten Ibiza, but now other bread and butter topics like healthcare, old age care and taxes/wages and affordable housing are more important.

[Tender Branson]

Today, 3 parties (FPÖ, ÖVP, Greens) have released new campaign posters and the SPÖ has released their 160-page election program:


Hofer poster: "ÖVP-Green is dangerous for YOUR future. Better for Austria: x FPÖ"

Kickl poster: "Without us, Kurz is tipping over to the LEFT. Stop illegals, protect borders."



"Providing clarity. Vote Kurz. Austria needs his Chancellor !"



"If you want Kurz, vote Kurz. Austria needs his Chancellor !"

https://twitter.com/Gruene_Austria/status/1172424094706331648

#Comeback: Climate Proection/Clean Politics. Back to the Greens on Sept. 29th !

and "Vote the Greens back in !"

SPÖ election platform:

https://www.spoe.at/wp-content/uploads/sites/739/2019/09/Wahlprogramm.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, we are getting another mega-poll with a sample of 3.000 people - a joint one for ATV, newspaper "Heute" and political magazine "Profil". It will also survey turnout.

Also, Vienna has launched an online election information platform for young and first-time voters (16+), called "Go vote." The city will also send a brochure to 16-17 year old first-time voters and employ their own social media youth reporters, which will be active on Instagram and other social media sites to answer their questions (young people these days hardly watch TV or read newspapers).

https://www.wien.gv.at/presse/2019/09/13/gemma-waehlen-stadt-wien-motiviert-junge-wienerinnen-ihr-wahlrecht-zu-nutzen

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, the TV debate of party youth representatives took place on the ORF and their debate was much more civilized than the debates of the actual party frontrunners we have already seen:


5/6 are current members of parliament between the ages of 20-35 and one (Sigi Maurer, Greens) was an MP between 2013-17 and will be elected again in two weeks.

https://tvthek.orf.at/profile/Runde-der-JungpolitikerInnen/13890806/Wahl-19-Politik-live-Runde-der-JungpolitikerInnen/14025678

[Tender Branson]

There is now a #NeverKurz movement (long-time ÖVP voters who are not voting ÖVP in this election). They are called #ConservativesWithDecency:

[Tender Branson]

New campaign videos from the small, leftist party "Wandel" (Change):

"I pay more taxes than Starbucks."

"Flying at higher game."

They have a campaign budget of just 10.000€ (!), but their ads are not much worse in quality than the ones from the big parties.