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September 15, 2019, 11:16:03 am
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  Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Sept. 29 federal election ?
#1VP  
#2SP  
#3FP  
#4NEOS  
#5NOW  
#6Greens  
#7KP  
#8Change  
#9A regional party  
#10Invalid/Blank  
#11I wouldn't vote  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 77

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)  (Read 36738 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #875 on: September 07, 2019, 11:05:51 am »

The SP is proposing not only a comeback of their "20.000+" policy to employ 50+ aged long-term unemployed (under Chancellor Kern, then killed by VP-FP), but a general federal jobs guarantee for all long-term unemployed (currently some 100.000 of the more than 300.000 unemployed).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/spoe-will-jobgarantie-fuer-alle-langzeitarbeitslosen/400599110

Pretty good idea. I have supported this all along.

Kern's 20.000+ program also had a positive effect on lowering the number of long-term, old unemployed while he was in office (even though VP and SP disagree whether it was the program or the good economy at the time).

Anyway, it's good if old, long-term unemployed get some perspective again by being employed by the communities, doing office work, helping out with community work, school crossing guards etc. etc. - rather than being at home all day doing nothing and receiving unemployment/welfare money and waiting for retirement. It's about dignity.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #876 on: September 07, 2019, 02:58:52 pm »

Another election tool with 34 questions in English:

https://www.voteswiper.org/en/austria/2019-austrian-legislative-election

I got KP, followed by Change, followed by the Greens.

NEOS last.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #877 on: September 07, 2019, 03:19:03 pm »

Another election tool with 34 questions in English:

https://www.voteswiper.org/en/austria/2019-austrian-legislative-election

I got KP, followed by Change, followed by the Greens.

NEOS last.
I got FP followed by VP. Surprised as I would have voted for the NEOS who I got almost at the bottom
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #878 on: September 08, 2019, 12:46:21 am »

New OGM federal election poll for the battleground state of Styria:



Styria 2017:

31.5% VP
29.6% FP
25.1% SP
  5.0% NEOS
  3.9% Jetzt
  2.8% Greens
  2.1% Others
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #879 on: September 08, 2019, 01:05:53 am »

The Greens also had their campaign kickoff event in Vienna yesterday and frontrunner Werner Kogler got some help from German Green-leader Robert Habeck:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #880 on: September 08, 2019, 12:29:17 pm »

The FP is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:



Yesterday, the Neo-Nazi Identitarian Movement held a demonstration in Vienna to remember the 1683 defeat of the invading Turks at the gates of Vienna.

Among the torch-carrying marchers: Ursula Stenzel (FP-Vienna)

Ursula Stenzel is not just some random FP-member, but her story is telling.

In the 1990s, she was a prominent and highly reputable ORF journalist in Vienna's media schickeria (scene).

She went on to become a member of the EU parliament for the VP.

A couple years ago she switched to the FP and is now marching with the Neo-Nazis and gave a speech yesterday warning of "Islam invasion".

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FP is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".
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The Saint
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« Reply #881 on: September 08, 2019, 12:34:42 pm »

New OGM federal election poll for the battleground state of Styria:

Have there been other similar state-based polls for the federal election recently?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #882 on: September 08, 2019, 12:37:35 pm »

New OGM federal election poll for the battleground state of Styria:

Have there been other similar state-based polls for the federal election recently?

Not individual ones like this.

But the weekly 24 polls usually have small sub-samples of 100-200 people for each state.
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Keep Calm and ...
OldEurope
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« Reply #883 on: September 08, 2019, 12:51:06 pm »

New OGM federal election poll for the battleground state of Styria:

Have there been other similar state-based polls for the federal election recently?

Not individual ones like this.

But the weekly 24 polls usually have small sub-samples of 100-200 people for each state.

These sub-samples are listet here.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #884 on: September 09, 2019, 11:08:15 am »

The FP is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:

(...)

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FP is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".

Hofer said today he will stand by Stenzel and will not call for her resignation.

There goes any credibility that Hofer had ...

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/anger-after-austrian-politician-ursula-stenzel-with-jewish-roots-speaks-at-far-right-rally-1.488398

First he said "zero tolerance" when it comes to the Identitarians, now he doesn't mind it.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #885 on: September 09, 2019, 11:16:55 am »

The Stenzel-affair also shows once again the absurdity of her job.

Stenzel is a so-called "Nicht-amtsfhrende Stadtrtin" in Vienna for the FP (= a city-council member without portfolio). Yes, this exists in Vienna.

A "city-council member without portfolio" is someone in the city government with a job in name only, who gets paid 9.000 a month 14x per year, without having to do anything.

Contrary to the city-council members with portfolio.

To get rid of these 5 useless posts, the Austrian (!) - not the Vienna - constitution needs to be changed with a 2/3 majority in both chambers of parliament.

Only in Austria ...

NEOS has now introduced a bill to get rid of Stenzel's job.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #886 on: September 09, 2019, 01:13:17 pm »

The FP is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:

(...)

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FP is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".

Hofer said today he will stand by Stenzel and will not call for her resignation.

There goes any credibility that Hofer had ...

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/anger-after-austrian-politician-ursula-stenzel-with-jewish-roots-speaks-at-far-right-rally-1.488398

First he said "zero tolerance" when it comes to the Identitarians, now he doesn't mind it.

That's absolutely disgusting, but the FP will end up in a coalition with Mr. Kurz anyway.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #887 on: September 09, 2019, 01:27:01 pm »

The FP is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:

(...)

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FP is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".

Hofer said today he will stand by Stenzel and will not call for her resignation.

There goes any credibility that Hofer had ...

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/anger-after-austrian-politician-ursula-stenzel-with-jewish-roots-speaks-at-far-right-rally-1.488398

First he said "zero tolerance" when it comes to the Identitarians, now he doesn't mind it.

That's absolutely disgusting, but the FP will end up in a coalition with Mr. Kurz anyway.

Right now, it seems as if no coalition at all can be formed.

The VP is really pissed at the FP and SP right now and the Greens do not want to govern with the VP.

Tricky.

But its election campaign and we have to wait and see.
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DL
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« Reply #888 on: September 09, 2019, 01:47:07 pm »

Could the OVP form a minority government if there is no coalition partner for them? Or is Austria like Germany in terms of minority gov't being "verboten"?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #889 on: September 09, 2019, 11:26:57 pm »

Could the OVP form a minority government if there is no coalition partner for them? Or is Austria like Germany in terms of minority gov't being "verboten"?

They could, but it wouldn't work for more than a few days or weeks.

There is too much hate against the VP from all the left-wing parties and even the FP wouldn't tolerate them for long. Once there's some FP scandal again, the VP would call for big consequences for them and the FP parliamentarians would revoke their support for tolerating the VP. It would definitely need a formal coalition contract to keep them together.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #890 on: September 09, 2019, 11:31:31 pm »

VP's parliamentary group leader August Wginger has created a firestorm recently at a campaign speech in his Upper Austria.

He said to the crowd in a patriarchal manner:

Quote
"It cannot be that our children go to Vienna (to study etc.) and come back as Greens. If someone eats and sleeps in our homes, they have to vote VP !"

https://diepresse.com/home/meinung/marginalien/5687101/Die-Angst-der-OeVP-vor-dem-verlorenen-Sohn
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #891 on: September 11, 2019, 11:10:57 am »

IMAD federal election poll for Tyrol:

37.6% VP (-0.8% compared with 2017)
19.4% FP (-5.7%)
17.8% SP (-3.0%)
13.6% Greens (+9.1%)
  8.3% NEOS (+2.6%)
  3.3% Others (-2.2%)

Most important issues for Tyrol voters on Sept. 29:

58% climate/environment
48% traffic/transit
38% education
38% finances/budget
35% migration/integration

https://www.krone.at/1992029

I think this is the 1st poll ever showing the VP dropping compared with 2017.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #892 on: September 12, 2019, 11:02:08 am »

New 24 poll: VP+FP losing.



https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190912_OTS0198/oesterreich-umfrage-oevp-und-fpoe-verlieren-neos-legen-zu

---

Another poll today, with a much larger sample of 3.000 people (Karmasin/Puls 24 weekly tracking poll), shows almost the exact same numbers:

35% VP
22% SP (+1)
19% FP (-1)
12% Greens
  9% NEOS
  2% NOW (+1)
  1% Others (-1)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108559530/karmasin-umfrage-sieht-spoe-drei-prozentpunkte-vor-fpoe
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« Reply #893 on: September 12, 2019, 11:17:04 am »

why is JETZT gaining slightly? obviously it won't be enough to pass the threshold, but it is odd.
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bigic
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« Reply #894 on: September 12, 2019, 11:18:34 am »

why is JETZT gaining slightly? obviously it won't be enough to pass the threshold, but it is odd.
The gain is probably within the margin of error.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #895 on: September 12, 2019, 11:23:18 am »

why is JETZT gaining slightly? obviously it won't be enough to pass the threshold, but it is odd.
The gain is probably within the margin of error.

Not sure if they are really gaining, but Peter Pilz is a really clever and skilled debater.

During the recent TV debates and duels with Kurz he strongly attacked the former Kurzzeit-Chancellor (= short period Chancellor) on all his campaign finance and shredding scandals and inconsistencies, his ties to the not-so-patriotic FP and ruled out as the only party leader a coalition with Kurz.

Pilz said: "If you vote VP, you get Kurz. If you vote SP, FP, Greens or NEOS, you will get Kurz. If you vote for us, you can be sure that we are not jumping into bed with Kurz. We are the only real opposition."
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #896 on: September 12, 2019, 11:44:12 am »

Immigration/integration/asylum not even in the TOP-5 of the most important issues any longer for Austrians voting in the federal election on Sept. 29:


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urutzizu
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« Reply #897 on: September 12, 2019, 12:19:23 pm »

Immigration/integration/asylum not even in the TOP-5 of the most important issues any longer for Austrians voting in the federal election on Sept. 29:




Will this harm the FP? It does seem that unlike certain other far-right parties, namely the AFD, that the FP actually has some competency in the eyes of the public on other issues, such as Taxation.

Also why is Corruption so low? Ibiza was the whole reason for this election. Have the public forgotten about it?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #898 on: September 12, 2019, 03:15:38 pm »

Immigration/integration/asylum not even in the TOP-5 of the most important issues any longer for Austrians voting in the federal election on Sept. 29:



Will this harm the FP? It does seem that unlike certain other far-right parties, namely the AFD, that the FP actually has some competency in the eyes of the public on other issues, such as Taxation.

Also why is Corruption so low? Ibiza was the whole reason for this election. Have the public forgotten about it?

Well, even without immigration being an important topic in this election the FP still has a loyal base of at least 15-17%, which will vote for them no matter what as a protest option.

It is certainly keeping a few voters away from them though who would have voted for them if immigration were more of a topic.

Corruption is probably not ranked higher as an important topic because voters think there was no actual corruption taking place.

Voters think Strache might have been a fool and stupid by what he said on Ibiza, but no real corruption has taken place. Voters have certainly not forgotten Ibiza, but now other bread and butter topics like healthcare, old age care and taxes/wages and affordable housing are more important.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #899 on: September 13, 2019, 11:26:23 am »

Today, 3 parties (FP, VP, Greens) have released new campaign posters and the SP has released their 160-page election program:



Hofer poster: "VP-Green is dangerous for YOUR future. Better for Austria: x FP"

Kickl poster: "Without us, Kurz is tipping over to the LEFT. Stop illegals, protect borders."



"Providing clarity. Vote Kurz. Austria needs his Chancellor !"



"If you want Kurz, vote Kurz. Austria needs his Chancellor !"



#Comeback: Climate Proection/Clean Politics. Back to the Greens on Sept. 29th !

and "Vote the Greens back in !"

SP election platform:

https://www.spoe.at/wp-content/uploads/sites/739/2019/09/Wahlprogramm.pdf
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