Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, Norbert Hofer will be officially elected party chair of the FPÖ and frontrunner at a convention in Graz.

Today, Hofer posted a private letter to H.C. Strache - thanking him and not throwing him under the bus:

Dear Heinz-Christian!

We have known each other for almost 15 years. It was one of the blackest hours of the Freedom Movement in which we met. After the split-off of Jörg Haider with the BZÖ you had the courage to assemble the remaining upright freedomites behind you. It was not many who had the courage to collaborate with you on rebuilding a fallen party at polls of three percent. One of them was me.

With your enthusiasm, dedication and willingness to just not give up, you've rekindled the fire of freedom. Hardly anyone has given the reconstruction of the FPÖ without Jörg Haider and with a Heinz-Christian Strache at the top a great chance of success. The media have written us off as well as the political competition has smiled at us. The rise of the FPÖ in the episode reminds me of my own life story after my paraglider crash in 2003. Even then the doctors in the first diagnosis gave me almost no chance to live without a wheelchair. At that time, I had only a small spark of hope, but I firmly believed in it and worked hard every day in rehabilitation so I could put my wheelchair in the corner and stand on my own two feet again.

You too did not give up, and within a very short time the FPÖ was already able to celebrate respectable results at parish, state and federal levels. You have proved to the critics that the FPÖ has a future even without Jörg Haider. Under your leadership, the FPÖ hastened from electoral success to electoral success - because you believed in it. Your belief in me was ultimately the reason that I let myself be persuaded to run for the office of Federal President. From my minimum goal, to achieve a respectable result (albeit without a chance of a runoff election), became the biggest election success in the history of the FPÖ. Over two million people have turned their backs on a candidate of the FPÖ.

The cut in the Federal Presidential election has also shown something: The FPÖ has many faces. The FPÖ without Jörg Haider is not viable, they said back then. You, dear Heinz-Christian, have proven the opposite. An FPÖ without Heinz-Christian Strache was possible until a few months ago - now I am about to take over the party. I do this with great respect and humility. As one who has accompanied you for 15 years now, I know how much work it takes to lead a party successfully.

Dear Heinz-Christian! On behalf of the Freedom family, I would like to express my gratitude to you. This is especially true for the 1 ½ years of our participation in government, where not least because of your obstinacy many long-standing freedomite demands were implemented to the benefit of the Austrian population. We know what you have done for the FPÖ, for Austria, for the whole country and its people. We know how much heart and soul you put into the work for our beautiful home. Your commitment has always been a role model for many of us.

I promise you and also the delegates at tomorrow's Federal Party Congress in Graz: We will continue the successful path.

Yours, Norbert.

https://www.facebook.com/1650580648552563/posts/2462978470646106

[Tender Branson]

Here is a selection of campaign posters from all 8 parties running nationwide:

[Tender Branson]

Over the next 2 weeks until the election, parliament will meet 3 times and pass some 40 new laws and amendments.

Among them a constitutional deficit and debt brake (which ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS already approved with a 2/3 majority in committee, but it will fail in the 2nd chamber of parliament because SPÖ+Greens have a blocking minority there).

Other topics include a jobs offensive for long-term old unemployed, better animal rights, an amendment to ensure more blood donations, that the 13./14. wages are enshrined in the constitution, a 3.6% pension increase for 2020 etc. etc.

Almost Swiss-style democracy that works. This flood of new laws would not be possible under a formal coalition.

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, we are getting another mega-poll with a sample of 3.000 people - a joint one for ATV, newspaper "Heute" and political magazine "Profil". It will also survey turnout.

Here it is:



Good news: the Greens are at 13%, the highest level ever (15% with Pilz). The Left-Liberal bloc is at 47% (of which 4% are wasted votes) is also at a record-high, ÖVP-FPÖ at a low.

Bad news: turnout is only projected at 72% certain voters (2017 turnout: 80%).

[Tender Branson]

The new OGM/Kurier poll has better news for ÖVP/FPÖ and for turnout (77% certain voters, which is where it should be at this point):



Only 9% of those polled are still undecided.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/grosse-kurier-umfrage-oevp-liegt-stabil-bei-35-vor-spoe-mit-22/400605341

[Keep Calm and ...]

It's not that bad when you add some of 8+9

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_AT/status/1172817945812230145

[Tender Branson]

It's not that bad when you add some of 8+9

The thing is that those who rate themselves as an 8 or 9 on that scale are almost never voting ...

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer was just officially elected new FPÖ party leader with 98.3% support of the 1.000 or so delegates at their Graz convention - succeeding H.C. Strache after 14 years as party leader.

[Tender Branson]

Two new „good cop, bad cop“ posters from the FPÖ:





„Two with unwavering support for YOU.“

[Tender Branson]

Kickl‘s aggressive speech at the FPÖ convention today received a lot of scrutiny afterwards.

Among other things, Kickl attacked the Greens as the party of bans and called party leader Kogler an alcoholic.

He said if Hofer‘s moderate behaviour will not convince his opponents, Kickl will be ready as some sort of boxer and deliver the knockout punch.

And he coined the new phrase Triple A (AAA), for Aggressive Afghan Asylum seekers - which he will would downgrade to zero.

Laughter and applause from the FPÖ delegates.

[Tender Branson]

Kickl also coined a new phrase for „immigrant rapists“ today:

„Facharbeiter für das Hantieren unter der Gürtellinie“

Don’t know if I can translate it properly into English, but something like:

„Skilled workers for handling things below the waistline“

... which of course is a reference to all the „skilled surgeons“ and engineers that Merkel let into Europe and then ended up as criminals, terrorists, or on welfare.

[Tender Branson]

So, the ÖVP announced a week ago that their servers were hacked and 1300 gigabytes of data were stolen.

The other parties doubted the hack and Peter Pilz called it a distraction maneuver from their other scandals.

Today, it emerged that IT specialists working for the ÖVP on that matter say that they have traced the attackers and they are apparently in ... France.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/erste-spur-in-hacker-affaere-um-oevp-zentrale-fuehrt-nach-frankreich/400605980

[Omega21]

In Vienna, 8 People are being charged with corruption, among them a prominent Green Party figure.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/8-Beschuldigte-in-Wiener-Korruptionskrimi/397634285

[Tender Branson]

In Vienna, 8 People are being charged with corruption, among them a prominent Green Party figure.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/8-Beschuldigte-in-Wiener-Korruptionskrimi/397634285

Someone (= SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, NEOS) has apparently seen that the resurgent Greens could win Vienna in 2 weeks, therefore they are now placing this investigation rather than waiting for after the election to blunt their momentum ...

I wouldn't say that the Greens are totally innocent though, Corherr and the real estate dealings certainly had potential for some corruption. But this Vassilakou team has been replaced last year and now other people are in charge.

[DL]

A prominent SPÖ-unionist has called billionaire and multimillion ÖVP-donor Heidi Horten a "heavily botoxed lady with her 2 million € necklace on".

Judging from that picture...he has a point

[Tender Branson]

The List Pilz/Now will introduce an emergency motion in parliament next week that would ban a comeback of Sebastian Kurz as Chancellor or any other former members of his government.

They argue that members of a government that was ousted by parliament in an impeachment/no-confidence-vote should never be able to return.

For this thing to pass, a 2/3 majority is needed - as it would change the constitution. The ÖVP currently has 61/183 seats. 122 are needed for it to pass.

In other words: if all 61 ÖVP MPs are present and voting against, then ALL other 122 members of parliament would also have to be present and vote in favour.

https://www.sn.at/politik/nationalratswahl-2019/jetzt-beantragt-rueckkehr-verbot-fuer-kurz-in-regierung-76324156

In Germany and other countries this is already the case: after a successful no-confidence-vote, a new Chancellor has to be elected.

[Tender Branson]

Experts say that for the first time since WW2, polls are not showing a match for Chancellor and 1st place and that this fact is demobilizing voters in the final stretch.

Bad for turnout.

It would be better if the ÖVP were to drop at least to 30% in the next week and the SPÖ rising to some 25-26% so that the media could at least talk about a Chancellor Match again.

[urutzizu]

In Germany and other countries this is already the case: after a successful no-confidence-vote, a new Chancellor has to be elected.

No, not at all. We have a constructive vote of no-confidence, meaning that a alternative chancellor needs a majority for it to succeed, but that is something completely different, and had that existed in Austria, Kurz would have not been ousted in the first place. But there is no ban on former chancellors serving again, and frankly that seems like an extremely undemocratic idea, pushed by Pilz because they know Kurz is going to win. Alfred Noll, the guy claiming this in the article, is blatantly lying .

[Tender Branson]

In Germany and other countries this is already the case: after a successful no-confidence-vote, a new Chancellor has to be elected.

No, not at all. We have a constructive vote of no-confidence, meaning that a alternative chancellor needs a majority for it to succeed, but that is something completely different, and had that existed in Austria, Kurz would have not been ousted in the first place. But there is no ban on former chancellors serving again, and frankly that seems like an extremely undemocratic idea, pushed by Pilz because they know Kurz is going to win. Alfred Noll, the guy claiming this in the article, is blatantly lying .

Of course this is mostly done by Pilz because of the election campaign, but it is also legitimate to ask if someone who was ousted by parliament should be able to return as Chancellor ... ?

[Good Habit]

...  but it is also legitimate to ask if someone who was ousted by parliament should be able to return as Chancellor ... ?

obviously yes, this is the way of parliamentary democracy.. If someone doesn't  have the confidence of the (outgoing) parliament, but wins the confidence of the voters (by winning the next election), and is thus able to get confidence from the new parliament, he must have the right to serve again... everything else would be anti-democratic, its the people that choose parliament, and not parliament that chooses the people...

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ will be out tomorrow with a funny new TV ad, where a Green chick wants to pick up Sebastian Kurz (who is sitting in a bar) as her lover ...

[Omega21]

...  but it is also legitimate to ask if someone who was ousted by parliament should be able to return as Chancellor ... ?

obviously yes, this is the way of parliamentary democracy.. If someone doesn't  have the confidence of the (outgoing) parliament, but wins the confidence of the voters (by winning the next election), and is thus able to get confidence from the new parliament, he must have the right to serve again... everything else would be anti-democratic, its the people that choose parliament, and not parliament that chooses the people...

Hear hear!

[urutzizu]

Of course this is mostly done by Pilz because of the election campaign, but it is also legitimate to ask if someone who was ousted by parliament should be able to return as Chancellor ... ?

Well, unequivocally Yes, they should. A vote of no confidence is a political judgment by parliamentarians who have partisan motivations. One could make the argument that someone with a criminal conviction by court should not be allowed to run, but being voted out by parliament does not mean that you have done something illicit or bad. It means that Parliament does not like you or what you have done.

[Tender Branson]

New "Market" poll for "Weekend Magazine":

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Tender, you are still required, just as everybody else, to provide proper attribution showing the images you post are free for use, per Dave's directive. Just so you know I'll be deleting all unsourced pictures, sans for polling graphics and electoral posters.