Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[mileslunn]

What is the most likely coalition?  Looks like Grand coalition or OVP-FPO could be done, but not sure Kurz wants either.  OVP-Greens might work but could the ideological differences be too large?  Other possibility is an OVP-Greens-NEOS (unless polls are massively off it looks like OVP-NEOS probably easiest to form won't have the numbers).

[Tender Branson]

What is the most likely coalition?  Looks like Grand coalition or OVP-FPO could be done, but not sure Kurz wants either.  OVP-Greens might work but could the ideological differences be too large?  Other possibility is an OVP-Greens-NEOS (unless polls are massively off it looks like OVP-NEOS probably easiest to form won't have the numbers).

No coalition is particularly likely right now.

My guess would be a 30% chance each for ÖVP-FPÖ (higher without Kickl as cabinet member) and ÖVP-Greens-NEOS. 15% chance for ÖVP-SPÖ, 5% for others and a 20% chance for new elections after everything fails.

[Tender Branson]

Tender, you are still required, just as everybody else, to provide proper attribution showing the images you post are free for use, per Dave's directive. Just so you know I'll be deleting all unsourced pictures, sans for polling graphics and electoral posters.

Sure, but where did I post them ?

I see you deleted a picture from the youth politician debate from the public ORF, which is not copyrighted. The ORF content is free to view and use (at least for Austrians).

Therefore I would say that you should not delete ORF pictures in the future.

I also think a picture of Norbert Hofer from the FPÖ page was deleted, which is also free for all to use.

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today:

Research Affairs/Ö24



Karmasin Research & Identity/Puls24

https://twitter.com/puls24news/status/1174727368595968003

"Do you rate the following coalitions as (very) negative or (very) positive ?"

https://twitter.com/puls24news/status/1174726117216989184

[Tender Branson]

It's very likely that the Greens have peaked, because of the breaking mini-scandal in Vienna - where their former city-council member for urban planning, Christoph Chorherr, is in some trouble for accepting donations from wealthy investors for a fund to help with education etc. in Africa in return for favourable building contracts in Vienna.

Chorherr suspended his Green membership today, after several Greens asked him to do so.

This and the hateful encounter of ÖVP's Kurz and SPÖ's Rendi-Wagner yesterday at the ORF debate ("duel") could still alter the polls in the final week, as could the elephant debates with all lead candidates.

[Lord Halifax]

Tender if you had to guess what percentage of the vote would you expect each party to end up with?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Tender, you are still required, just as everybody else, to provide proper attribution showing the images you post are free for use, per Dave's directive. Just so you know I'll be deleting all unsourced pictures, sans for polling graphics and electoral posters.

Sure, but where did I post them ?

I see you deleted a picture from the youth politician debate from the public ORF, which is not copyrighted. The ORF content is free to view and use (at least for Austrians).

Therefore I would say that you should not delete ORF pictures in the future.

I also think a picture of Norbert Hofer from the FPÖ page was deleted, which is also free for all to use.

And you should've attributed it as such. I'll remove infraction for this one, but in the future I'm not going to be checking every unsourced image.

[Tender Branson]

Tender if you had to guess what percentage of the vote would you expect each party to end up with?

33-35% ÖVP
23-25% SPÖ
20-22% FPÖ
10-12% Greens
  8-10% NEOS
    2-3% Now
    1-2% KPÖ + Change

[Tender Branson]

In yesterday’s session of parliament, many important laws were passed:

# ÖVP-FPÖs original tax reform/cut
# a pension increase of 3.6% for 2020
# easier blood donations
# Austrian citizenship for relatives of former Nazi victims living abroad
# a vote of solidarity to protect the rainforest
# more investment into prevention of violence against women
# a digital tax on online revenue generated by large corporations such as Google
# a re-organization of the local tax, fraud and customs offices to just 4
# more money to invest in old long-term unemployed
# sharper protections and penalties against animal transports

https://www.ots.at/pressemappe/172/pressedienst-der-parlamentsdirektion-parlamentskorrespondenz

Some 30 more laws will be passed next week just ahead of the election.

[mileslunn]

In yesterday’s session of parliament, many important laws were passed:

# ÖVP-FPÖs original tax reform/cut
# a pension increase of 3.6% for 2020
# easier blood donations
# Austrian citizenship for relatives of former Nazi victims living abroad
# a vote of solidarity to protect the rainforest
# more investment into prevention of violence against women
# a digital tax on online revenue generated by large corporations such as Google
# a re-organization of the local tax, fraud and customs offices to just 4
# more money to invest in old long-term unemployed
# sharper protections and penalties against animal transports

https://www.ots.at/pressemappe/172/pressedienst-der-parlamentsdirektion-parlamentskorrespondenz

Some 30 more laws will be passed next week just ahead of the election.

Wow, they can do this.  Here in Canada, they are not allowed to pass laws once campaign starts, just a caretaker government.  Very interesting as I assumed during campaign they would ban passing laws so government cannot use legislation for its advantage.  Mind you in Austria you usually have coalitions whereas we are usually majority governments, but still kind of surprised this is permitted.

[Walmart_shopper]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

[Oryxslayer]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

The way how it's been framed is that no working majority, right now, can be found. All govts:

- OVP + FPO: Kurz doesn't want to be seen as falling right back into their arms after ending the govt, even though the FPO are all for it. He'll no doubt insist on the demands made previously to shackle FPO influence, which might not be so hot to them.
- OVP + SPO: SPO, as the main opposition party doesn't want to enter govt after losing votes at the polls, even though their previous result was a soft result from green defections. SPO also would prefer not to let FPO be the opposition. This is ignoring the obvious ideological differences.
- OVP + NEOS + Greens: Greens have so far refused advances to enter an OVP govt nationally, even though NEOS is all for supporting Kurz.
-SPO +  Greens + NEOS: lacks majority
-SPO + FPO: Lacks majority
-FPO + Greens + NEOS: lacks majority and has fierce ideological differences.

So someone needs to bend after the election.

[Tender Branson]

In yesterday’s session of parliament, many important laws were passed:

# ÖVP-FPÖs original tax reform/cut
# a pension increase of 3.6% for 2020
# easier blood donations
# Austrian citizenship for relatives of former Nazi victims living abroad
# a vote of solidarity to protect the rainforest
# more investment into prevention of violence against women
# a digital tax on online revenue generated by large corporations such as Google
# a re-organization of the local tax, fraud and customs offices to just 4
# more money to invest in old long-term unemployed
# sharper protections and penalties against animal transports

https://www.ots.at/pressemappe/172/pressedienst-der-parlamentsdirektion-parlamentskorrespondenz

Some 30 more laws will be passed next week just ahead of the election.

Wow, they can do this.  Here in Canada, they are not allowed to pass laws once campaign starts, just a caretaker government.  Very interesting as I assumed during campaign they would ban passing laws so government cannot use legislation for its advantage.  Mind you in Austria you usually have coalitions whereas we are usually majority governments, but still kind of surprised this is permitted.

Governments always use legislation to their advantage, but this time it’s a lot more laws being passed before the election than normal because we have a caretaker government and no real coalition in place.

Which means a regular government would probably only pass some 5 laws before an election, but this time we have 5 different parties proposing new laws and all other parties mostly vote for it because of populist reasons or because the proposals actually make sense.

That’s why the FPÖ for example also voted for citizenship for relatives of former Nazi victims.

[Tender Branson]

More than 230.000 voters in Vienna have requested postal ballots so far.

10 days before the election.

That is already more than the 205.000 in total for the 2017 election, which was already a record.

Vienna could see as much as 300-320.000 postal votes this time, which is more than all of Austria had 10 years ago.

Linz is also reporting more than a 50% increase in requests.

I assume that ca. 1 million to 1.2 million requests will be made, up from 890.000 in 2007.

That would be ca. every 5th voter.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3013813

[mileslunn]

In yesterday’s session of parliament, many important laws were passed:

# ÖVP-FPÖs original tax reform/cut
# a pension increase of 3.6% for 2020
# easier blood donations
# Austrian citizenship for relatives of former Nazi victims living abroad
# a vote of solidarity to protect the rainforest
# more investment into prevention of violence against women
# a digital tax on online revenue generated by large corporations such as Google
# a re-organization of the local tax, fraud and customs offices to just 4
# more money to invest in old long-term unemployed
# sharper protections and penalties against animal transports

https://www.ots.at/pressemappe/172/pressedienst-der-parlamentsdirektion-parlamentskorrespondenz

Some 30 more laws will be passed next week just ahead of the election.

Wow, they can do this.  Here in Canada, they are not allowed to pass laws once campaign starts, just a caretaker government.  Very interesting as I assumed during campaign they would ban passing laws so government cannot use legislation for its advantage.  Mind you in Austria you usually have coalitions whereas we are usually majority governments, but still kind of surprised this is permitted.

Governments always use legislation to their advantage, but this time it’s a lot more laws being passed before the election than normal because we have a caretaker government and no real coalition in place.

Which means a regular government would probably only pass some 5 laws before an election, but this time we have 5 different parties proposing new laws and all other parties mostly vote for it because of populist reasons or because the proposals actually make sense.

That’s why the FPÖ for example also voted for citizenship for relatives of former Nazi victims.

I am just surprised they allow this.  Most countries I am familiar with ban the passing of any laws during campaign period.  Only other one I know that allows this is US as they have three separate branches and their campaigns last over a year.  In Canada, UK, Australia and I believe most European countries, govt is a caretaker and from beginning of campaign until new government is sworn in, no laws can be passed.  All laws in process die and have to re-introduced after election, assuming government who introduced it gets re-elected.

[Tender Branson]

Green TV ad:

[Tender Branson]

One of the last polls (IGF) has very strange results:

   32% ÖVP
   26% FPÖ
   19% SPÖ
   11% Greens
     8% NEOS
  3-4% Now
  0-1% Others

Wiki Link

[Tender Branson]

NEOS TV ad ("We are NEOS: we are boring. We have no scandals. We have no corruption.")

[Cranberry]

One of the last polls (IGF) has very strange results:

   32% ÖVP
   26% FPÖ
   19% SPÖ
   11% Greens
     8% NEOS
  3-4% Now
  0-1% Others

Wiki Link

Reading the linked article on the wiki page reveals that this is unweighted raw data, so this is probably to be taken with quite some precaution.

[Tender Branson]

One of the last polls (IGF) has very strange results:

   32% ÖVP
   26% FPÖ
   19% SPÖ
   11% Greens
     8% NEOS
  3-4% Now
  0-1% Others

Wiki Link

Reading the linked article on the wiki page reveals that this is unweighted raw data, so this is probably to be taken with quite some precaution.

Yeah, 26% for the FPÖ seems far too high.

19% for the SPÖ too low (the cities will keep them above 20%).

3-4% for Pilz seems not implausible, but 2-3% seems more accurate.

BTW: Cranberry, who are you voting for ? I have already cast my vote for the Greens.

[Cranberry]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

As others have already alluded, it's quite impossible to say with any degree of certainty. The big problem behind this is Sebastian Kurz - he called this election in hopes of pulling a Schüssel 2002 and scoring above 40%, having his choice of potential partner; but all signs point to him finishing more or less where he was since 2017, with at most meagre gains of 2-3%. He both failed at cannibalising the FPÖ (which would have allowed him to continue the government very much at his terms) and at gaining voters to his left (which would have allowed him to go into government with a weakened SPÖ that doesn't have to fear much from their left). As it stands now, he gained a few FPÖ voters; and the centre-left bloc interchanged voters between themselves (interestingly, if there was movement between blocs, it appears to have actually occured right-to-left, according to the latest polls), but the raw numbers have not changed much since 2017.

What has changed is the attitude of the political players - where ÖVP-FPÖ was a natural option then, a lot has happened to destroy trust on both sides. Hofer may want government participation at any price, but the powerful ÖVP state parties have a word to say in this as well (arguably they forced Kurz to break off the coalition at this point over Kickl), and so do the Strache / Kickl wing in the FPÖ. They may not be willing to pay just any price, and after all, the FPÖ is nowhere better than in opposition.

ÖVP-SPÖ, the ancestral plan B of Austrian politics, is as little appealing as ever. A lot of bad blood still exists between the two, and not only at the top level. Furthermore, the SPÖ needs to take just a very short peak north to see what can happen when you go into government as a junior partner to a conservative party (that would be the first time since 1966, non the less!) while you have a re-emerged green party on your left flank. In the end, as the SPÖ is still a party that never really finds its tune in opposition, and as the current leadership is easily disposed of if that were a problem, it might just still happen, but the chances are definitely slimmer than during most of recent history.

All the other options are more or less pipe dreams, imo: three-party-governments have no history in Austria, and the Greens would be opting for suicide if they went into one with both ÖVP and Neos; ÖVP-Greens and ÖVP-Neos won't have a majority, not even speaking of the political difficulties, and I won't even begin to speak of SPÖ-FPÖ.

So we are really at a point where nothing really makes sense and nothing really satisifies anyone, and we're a few millions the poorer for it. Congratulations, Sebastian Kurz.

As for your Greens question - into parliament? Yes of course. Into government? Probably not (but then again, who does, except for Kurz?)

[Cranberry]

One of the last polls (IGF) has very strange results:

   32% ÖVP
   26% FPÖ
   19% SPÖ
   11% Greens
     8% NEOS
  3-4% Now
  0-1% Others

Wiki Link

Reading the linked article on the wiki page reveals that this is unweighted raw data, so this is probably to be taken with quite some precaution.

Yeah, 26% for the FPÖ seems far too high.

19% for the SPÖ too low (the cities will keep them above 20%).

3-4% for Pilz seems not implausible, but 2-3% seems more accurate.

BTW: Cranberry, who are you voting for ? I have already cast my vote for the Greens.

The same as you, I also sent off my postal ballot sometime this week. Where it was a decision with a lot of stomach ache the last time (also voted for the Greens then), pretty obvious choice this time around.

[Former President tack50]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

As others have already alluded, it's quite impossible to say with any degree of certainty. The big problem behind this is Sebastian Kurz - he called this election in hopes of pulling a Schüssel 2002 and scoring above 40%, having his choice of potential partner; but all signs point to him finishing more or less where he was since 2017, with at most meagre gains of 2-3%. He both failed at cannibalising the FPÖ (which would have allowed him to continue the government very much at his terms) and at gaining voters to his left (which would have allowed him to go into government with a weakened SPÖ that doesn't have to fear much from their left). As it stands now, he gained a few FPÖ voters; and the centre-left bloc interchanged voters between themselves (interestingly, if there was movement between blocs, it appears to have actually occured right-to-left, according to the latest polls), but the raw numbers have not changed much since 2017.

What has changed is the attitude of the political players - where ÖVP-FPÖ was a natural option then, a lot has happened to destroy trust on both sides. Hofer may want government participation at any price, but the powerful ÖVP state parties have a word to say in this as well (arguably they forced Kurz to break off the coalition at this point over Kickl), and so do the Strache / Kickl wing in the FPÖ. They may not be willing to pay just any price, and after all, the FPÖ is nowhere better than in opposition.

ÖVP-SPÖ, the ancestral plan B of Austrian politics, is as little appealing as ever. A lot of bad blood still exists between the two, and not only at the top level. Furthermore, the SPÖ needs to take just a very short peak north to see what can happen when you go into government as a junior partner to a conservative party (that would be the first time since 1966, non the less!) while you have a re-emerged green party on your left flank. In the end, as the SPÖ is still a party that never really finds its tune in opposition, and as the current leadership is easily disposed of if that were a problem, it might just still happen, but the chances are definitely slimmer than during most of recent history.

All the other options are more or less pipe dreams, imo: three-party-governments have no history in Austria, and the Greens would be opting for suicide if they went into one with both ÖVP and Neos; ÖVP-Greens and ÖVP-Neos won't have a majority, not even speaking of the political difficulties, and I won't even begin to speak of SPÖ-FPÖ.

So we are really at a point where nothing really makes sense and nothing really satisifies anyone, and we're a few millions the poorer for it. Congratulations, Sebastian Kurz.

As for your Greens question - into parliament? Yes of course. Into government? Probably not (but then again, who does, except for Kurz?)

Looking at that it seems coalition building will be very hard if not impossible

How likely is a repeat election some time in early 2020?

[Cranberry]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

As others have already alluded, it's quite impossible to say with any degree of certainty. The big problem behind this is Sebastian Kurz - he called this election in hopes of pulling a Schüssel 2002 and scoring above 40%, having his choice of potential partner; but all signs point to him finishing more or less where he was since 2017, with at most meagre gains of 2-3%. He both failed at cannibalising the FPÖ (which would have allowed him to continue the government very much at his terms) and at gaining voters to his left (which would have allowed him to go into government with a weakened SPÖ that doesn't have to fear much from their left). As it stands now, he gained a few FPÖ voters; and the centre-left bloc interchanged voters between themselves (interestingly, if there was movement between blocs, it appears to have actually occured right-to-left, according to the latest polls), but the raw numbers have not changed much since 2017.

What has changed is the attitude of the political players - where ÖVP-FPÖ was a natural option then, a lot has happened to destroy trust on both sides. Hofer may want government participation at any price, but the powerful ÖVP state parties have a word to say in this as well (arguably they forced Kurz to break off the coalition at this point over Kickl), and so do the Strache / Kickl wing in the FPÖ. They may not be willing to pay just any price, and after all, the FPÖ is nowhere better than in opposition.

ÖVP-SPÖ, the ancestral plan B of Austrian politics, is as little appealing as ever. A lot of bad blood still exists between the two, and not only at the top level. Furthermore, the SPÖ needs to take just a very short peak north to see what can happen when you go into government as a junior partner to a conservative party (that would be the first time since 1966, non the less!) while you have a re-emerged green party on your left flank. In the end, as the SPÖ is still a party that never really finds its tune in opposition, and as the current leadership is easily disposed of if that were a problem, it might just still happen, but the chances are definitely slimmer than during most of recent history.

All the other options are more or less pipe dreams, imo: three-party-governments have no history in Austria, and the Greens would be opting for suicide if they went into one with both ÖVP and Neos; ÖVP-Greens and ÖVP-Neos won't have a majority, not even speaking of the political difficulties, and I won't even begin to speak of SPÖ-FPÖ.

So we are really at a point where nothing really makes sense and nothing really satisifies anyone, and we're a few millions the poorer for it. Congratulations, Sebastian Kurz.

As for your Greens question - into parliament? Yes of course. Into government? Probably not (but then again, who does, except for Kurz?)

Looking at that it seems coalition building will be very hard if not impossible

How likely is a repeat election some time in early 2020?

So far, a government has always been formed, but early elections after a year have happened - in 1971 after a SPÖ-minority, in 1995 when (as usual) the ÖVP broke off a Grand Coalition. I suppose some sort of government will be formed (what would elections directly afterwards change anyway?), but I doubt it will last the full five years (which would put it in good company - 6 of the last 14 elections have been early elections: 1986, 1995, 2002, 2008, 2017, 2019)

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, the Krone/Puls24 elephant debate took place:


© APA

Tomorrow, the more important joint elephant debate of the private TV channels Puls 4, ATV and ServusTV will take place, where a new mega poll from Peter Hajek will be presented.