Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Sept. 29 federal election ?
#1
ÖVP		  
#2
SPÖ		  
#3
FPÖ		  
#4
NEOS		  
#5
NOW		  
#6
Greens		  
#7
KPÖ		  
#8
Change		  
#9
A regional party		  
#10
Invalid/Blank		  
#11
I wouldn't vote		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 110

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)  (Read 146115 times)
Double Carpet
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« Reply #1075 on: September 29, 2019, 10:26:22 AM »
Tender thanks for all the updates!

If those numbers hold, what's your current best guess for the new coalition?
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1076 on: September 29, 2019, 10:26:36 AM »
Harald Vilimsky (FPÖ) strongly implies that FPÖ will go into Opposition, says that FPÖ cannot take this result as a mandate for continuing the Coalition.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1077 on: September 29, 2019, 10:26:50 AM »
Turnout is projected at 77% by SORA, but there's still a lot of uncertainty.

No precincts from Vienna or other big cities.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #1078 on: September 29, 2019, 10:27:31 AM »
Wow!

I was totally wrong. ÖVP might be stronger than SPÖ and FPÖ togheter...
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RGM2609
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« Reply #1079 on: September 29, 2019, 10:28:23 AM »
Any chance for an OVP-SPO coalition?
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jaichind
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« Reply #1080 on: September 29, 2019, 10:29:26 AM »
FPÖ indicates that it has no plans to enter into coalition talks
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1081 on: September 29, 2019, 10:30:19 AM »


So it's OVP-Greens then.
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Cranberry
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« Reply #1082 on: September 29, 2019, 10:30:24 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 29, 2019, 10:24:42 AM
Besides FPÖ+SPÖ+Pilz, the big losers are the pollsters this time.

I knew there was some herding going on ...

Yeah, one of the big stories is how the polls totally failed this time - vastly underestimating ÖVP and Greens, vastly overestimating the FPÖ, who have their worst result since 2006.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1083 on: September 29, 2019, 10:31:45 AM »
http://visual.apa.at/election/index.map.html

Click on Bezirke (districts) and Gemeinden (towns/cities).

SPÖ not winning a single district so far.

SPÖ wins no town in the West so far.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1084 on: September 29, 2019, 10:32:45 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 29, 2019, 10:19:38 AM
There was a sign in the ÖVP victory crowd which says "Vienna is turquoise".

Might not be wrong with this margin, but we'll have to wait ...

I thoight Vienna was pretty well to the left. Is it actually more like Madrid?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1085 on: September 29, 2019, 10:33:19 AM »
Looking at the map results, so far, OVP is gaining 8-10% more than in 2017, and mostly from FPO. GRÜNE is gaining at the expense of SPO.

What's the most likely coalition? OVP-GRUNE or OVP-SPO? I assume the "grand coalition" as OVP+NEOS will not make it.
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Max Stirner
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« Reply #1086 on: September 29, 2019, 10:34:18 AM »
kurz can choose his allies, right, left...
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Omega21
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« Reply #1087 on: September 29, 2019, 10:34:37 AM »
Greens: We are not prepared to cooperate with Kurz if he continues on the path he took in the past 2 years.

(Watching live, so it's not a direct quote).
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jaichind
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« Reply #1088 on: September 29, 2019, 10:34:49 AM »
Greens indicate that they are willing to enter into coalition talks
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1089 on: September 29, 2019, 10:35:17 AM »
Quote from: Walmart_shopper on September 29, 2019, 10:32:45 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 29, 2019, 10:19:38 AM
There was a sign in the ÖVP victory crowd which says "Vienna is turquoise".

Might not be wrong with this margin, but we'll have to wait ...

I thoight Vienna was pretty well to the left. Is it actually more like Madrid?

To the Left yes.

But the SPÖ could end up behind the ÖVP for the first time today since 1918.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1090 on: September 29, 2019, 10:37:40 AM »
Quote from: Walmart_shopper on September 29, 2019, 10:32:45 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 29, 2019, 10:19:38 AM
There was a sign in the ÖVP victory crowd which says "Vienna is turquoise".

Might not be wrong with this margin, but we'll have to wait ...

I thoight Vienna was pretty well to the left. Is it actually more like Madrid?

It is, but with the OVP so high and the opposition so divided, the OVP might sneak through. Think Hamburg in 2017 Germany.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1091 on: September 29, 2019, 10:37:58 AM »
Quote from: Omega21 on September 29, 2019, 10:34:37 AM
Greens: We are not prepared to cooperate with Kurz if he continues on the path he took in the past 2 years.

(Watching live, so it's not a direct quote).

Yeah, but obviously replacing the FPO with the Greens will ensure that he won't. So this doesn't mean much.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1092 on: September 29, 2019, 10:40:22 AM »
If the FPÖ gets destroyed in Vienna and the Greens do well, I could also see both of them at 15% Austria-wide ...

The 3rd place is not decided yet.
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Cranberry
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« Reply #1093 on: September 29, 2019, 10:41:42 AM »
Quote from: Walmart_shopper on September 29, 2019, 10:32:45 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 29, 2019, 10:19:38 AM
There was a sign in the ÖVP victory crowd which says "Vienna is turquoise".

Might not be wrong with this margin, but we'll have to wait ...

I thoight Vienna was pretty well to the left. Is it actually more like Madrid?

It is very left-wing. Important to note, FPÖ and Greens might yet trade places, seeing as nothing from Vienna is yet in, and that's traditionally the Greens' absolute stronghold.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1094 on: September 29, 2019, 10:44:19 AM »
Vienna vote count (in English !):

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/NR191/index.html

Nothing in yet, because they only closed at 5pm.

But should not take long.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1095 on: September 29, 2019, 10:45:51 AM »
SPO gets their first notable win, Wels City. Of course, they won it by more  in 2017...
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1096 on: September 29, 2019, 10:47:03 AM »
ÖVP Voters prefer NEOS then FPÖ as Coalition Partners
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1097 on: September 29, 2019, 10:48:46 AM »
The difference in Vienna between SPÖ and ÖVP was 13% in 2017.

A big gap.

But today, the ÖVP gained 6% and the SPÖ lost 5% so far.

This could be really close.
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Omega21
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« Reply #1098 on: September 29, 2019, 10:52:03 AM »
FPÖ 16,1
Greens 14,2

Max fluctuation 1,5%
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #1099 on: September 29, 2019, 10:53:36 AM »
Quote from: Cranberry on September 29, 2019, 10:30:24 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 29, 2019, 10:24:42 AM
Besides FPÖ+SPÖ+Pilz, the big losers are the pollsters this time.

I knew there was some herding going on ...

Yeah, one of the big stories is how the polls totally failed this time - vastly underestimating ÖVP and Greens, vastly overestimating the FPÖ, who have their worst result since 2006.

Pollsters are so used to underestimating the anti-establishment right-wing parties it does appear in a few places they've actually adjusted their methods too much, now overestimating those parties support.

It was the same in Sweden last year, the Sweden Democrats were actually overestimated by pollsters.
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