Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Ethelberth]

So, the East Tyrolians did not simply use preference vote in order to get representation.

[Tender Branson]

So, the East Tyrolians did not simply use preference vote in order to get representation.

The vast majority of voters do not care about preference votes.

They are only voting for a party and don’t mind who is representing them.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ has just voted to deny Philippa Strache a seat in parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kein-nationalrats-mandat-fuer-philippa-strache/400640495

In recent days, more and more important people in the FPÖ said they wanted a complete reset for the party and that’s only possible without the Straches.

[Tender Branson]

I also like the fact that Vorarlberg in the West had one of the biggest Left trends, while just over the state border in Tyrol ... the district Landeck had one of the two strongest rightwing trends in the country.

[windjammer]

The FPÖ has just voted to deny Philippa Strache a seat in parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kein-nationalrats-mandat-fuer-philippa-strache/400640495

In recent days, more and more important people in the FPÖ said they wanted a complete reset for the party and that’s only possible without the Straches.

The fact that the Straches were still a thing after this massive scandal is quite telling,...

[Keep Calm and ...]

The FPÖ has just voted to deny Philippa Strache a seat in parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kein-nationalrats-mandat-fuer-philippa-strache/400640495

In recent days, more and more important people in the FPÖ said they wanted a complete reset for the party and that’s only possible without the Straches.

It seems to be very complicated.

https://orf.at/stories/3140140/

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ has just voted to deny Philippa Strache a seat in parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kein-nationalrats-mandat-fuer-philippa-strache/400640495

In recent days, more and more important people in the FPÖ said they wanted a complete reset for the party and that’s only possible without the Straches.

It seems to be very complicated.

https://orf.at/stories/3140140/

No matter if she gets her seat or not (the Vienna state election commission will probably decide tomorrow), about 5% of voters would definitely back a new HC Strache List and another 11% would probably vote for it.

https://www.heute.at/s/bis-zu-16-prozent-wurden-wieder-strache-wahlen-43730975

[Cranberry]

Decided to look at some city results, first up: the hometown, Innsbruck.



The maps look more ÖVP-heavy than the actual results would suggest, seeing as postal ballots are obviously not counted at the precinct level. The city's electoral geography is pretty self-explationary from the results I'd say - university and the old city core full of student appartements in the center, working class districts and high-rises to the east, mostly single-family homes and small appartment blocs to the west. North and south of the valley, above the city, are village-type, extremely expensive inner suburbs (Hungerburg/Arzl to the north and Vill/Igls to the south, easily apparent by the elevated ÖVP/Neos score).

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ has just voted to deny Philippa Strache a seat in parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kein-nationalrats-mandat-fuer-philippa-strache/400640495

In recent days, more and more important people in the FPÖ said they wanted a complete reset for the party and that’s only possible without the Straches.

It seems to be very complicated.

https://orf.at/stories/3140140/

The Vienna election commission has dealt a blow to the FPÖ and awarded the seat to Philippa Strache today, after consulting the federal election commission and Interior Ministry. The FPÖ's actions to strip her from her seat was not allowed under Austrian election law (something that H.C. Strache also said was not legal in a Facebook post).

There are now 2 options for Philippa Strache:

A) she can take the seat, but will not become a member of the FPÖ parliamentary group, because they don't want her and she will be expelled - becoming an Independent MP.

B) she refuses to take the seat and the next on the list will replace her.

https://orf.at/stories/3140287/

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, SPÖ's Hermione Granger and FPÖ's Norbert Hofer talked with Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP), each for one hour.

During these first exploration talks, both told Kurz their demands and Rendi-Wagner said that the climate between Kurz and her was pretty good.

Hofer told Kurz that "he has a lot of things to fix in his party right now" and told him that he still prepares the FPÖ for opposition. But, if all coalition talks with other parties fail, then the FPÖ could vote again on further talks.

The talks with NEOS today lasted more than 2 hours, with NEOS-leader Meinl-Reisinger deploying a lot of demands to Kurz.

The talk between Kurz and Kogler (Greens) has just started ...

[jimrtex]

So ÖVP in Ost-tyrol were dead souls. Despite giving huge numbers for the party, they did not get a seat in parliament.

There is a bias against smaller constituencies.

To win a regional seat, a party in Tyrol has to receive 1/15 of the total Tirol vote. Since East Tyrol has about 1/15 of the state electorate, this means a party would need almost all the votes in the region (it turns out 92.6%).

Number of mandates: Number of regions: elected/total mandates; relative elected.

1 mandate: 1 region: 0/1; 0%
2 mandates: 1 region: 0/2; 0%
3 mandates: 9 regions: 4/27; 15%
4 mandates: 9 regions: 13/36; 36%
5 mandates: 7 regions: 16/35: 46%
6 mandates: 6 regions: 19/36: 53%
7 mandates: 3 regions: 12/21: 57%
8 mandates: 2 regions: 8/16: 50%
9 mandates: 1 regions: 5/9: 55%

With the continued decline of SPO, the collapse of FPO, and rebound of Greens, fewer regional mandates were elected (declining from 99 to 79). Splitting the vote four ways, or five if we include NEOS and minor parties, means many won't be elected unless there is a large number of mandates (6 or more). Even OVP may not be able to secure two mandates.

[Antonio the Sixth]

SPÖ's Hermione Granger

lmao

[Tender Branson]

All 4 exploration talks with Kurz are now over and all except the FPÖ are ready to go into deep coalition talks.

Kurz will either announce another round of exploration talks or his partner(s) of choice for the coalition talks soon.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Whatever happened to FPO's desire to bring Swiss style direct democracy to the country btw?

[Tender Branson]

Whatever happened to FPO's desire to bring Swiss style direct democracy to the country btw?

Was planned for 2022, under the old government.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ & Greens killed the constitutional deficit and debt brake today in the second chamber of parliament - the Bundesrat.

23 (SPÖ+Greens) voted against, 38 (62%) in favour (ÖVP+FPÖ).

In the Nationalrat, 68% voted in favour (ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS).

https://orf.at/#/stories/3140397/

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ's Hermione Granger

lmao

There are certain similarities between them ...

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ has officially abandoned the coalition talks today, saying they got internal things to fix and that their election result is no mandate from voters to govern again.

https://orf.at/stories/3140382/

[Tender Branson]

Kurz has scheduled another round of exploration talks with SPÖ, Greens and NEOS for next Wednesday, this time with complete negotiation teams from each party.

The Kurier reports that the trend is definitely in favour of ÖVP-Greens, based on insider information from party officials.

The SPÖ is still officially „in“ the talks, but the mood inside the party is leaning more towards opposition.

And NEOS is not even needed as a coalition partner, plus Kurz is unlikely to take them in as a 3rd partner, because of their strong demands on several issues.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nach-der-ersten-runde-nur-noch-eineinhalb-optionen-fuer-kurz/400643630

[Oryxslayer]

Kurz has scheduled another round of exploration talks with SPÖ, Greens and NEOS for next Wednesday, this time with complete negotiation teams from each party.

The Kurier reports that the trend is definitely in favour of ÖVP-Greens, based on insider information from party officials.

The SPÖ is still officially „in“ the talks, but the mood inside the party is leaning more towards opposition.

And NEOS is not even needed as a coalition partner, plus Kurz is unlikely to take them in as a 3rd partner, because of their strong demands on several issues.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nach-der-ersten-runde-nur-noch-eineinhalb-optionen-fuer-kurz/400643630

Well Kurz realistically would need one of the big oppositions to bend for each issue on a vote by vote basis - unless of course the upcoming state elections are beneficial to both the OVP and greens, which result in seat turnarounds.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz has scheduled another round of exploration talks with SPÖ, Greens and NEOS for next Wednesday, this time with complete negotiation teams from each party.

The Kurier reports that the trend is definitely in favour of ÖVP-Greens, based on insider information from party officials.

The SPÖ is still officially „in“ the talks, but the mood inside the party is leaning more towards opposition.

And NEOS is not even needed as a coalition partner, plus Kurz is unlikely to take them in as a 3rd partner, because of their strong demands on several issues.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nach-der-ersten-runde-nur-noch-eineinhalb-optionen-fuer-kurz/400643630

Well Kurz realistically would need one of the big oppositions to bend for each issue on a vote by vote basis - unless of course the upcoming state elections are beneficial to both the OVP and Greens, which result in seat turnarounds.

Yeah, I posted earlier that while ÖVP-Greens would have a small majority in the Nationalrat - they only have a 22+2/61 minority in the Bundesrat, representing the states.

That’s why Kurz will always need the support of either SPÖ or FPÖ for constitutional laws to become law (not for regular laws though, which are not impacting the states. For these laws, the Bundesrat only serves as a rubberstamp).

The coming state elections won’t change a lot in the composition of the Bundesrat:

In Vorarlberg, the Greens could steal the FPÖ seat (but only if they overtake them and the ÖVP does not pass 50%).

In Styria, the ÖVP and Greens could gain a federal Bundesrat seat each, SPÖ+FPÖ losing one each.

In the small Burgenland election in January, no seats will change.

That means ÖVP+Greens would improve their situation in the Bundesrat by a net 3 seats until January, when they need a net gain of 7 for a majority in the chamber ...

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg state election is coming up on Sunday.

The state has a strong historical ÖVP-lean and that is likely to continue on Sunday with gains, because the state party is much more moderate and consensual than the polarizing Kurz-ÖVP on social/foreigner/asylum topics.

The 2014 results were like this:



There's limited polling, but it is expected that the ÖVP will get 45-50% - maybe even an absolute majority, depending on how well NEOS and the small, fringe parties without a chance do. 48-49% would be enough for such an absolute majority, but the state ÖVP has a history of still picking a coalition partner despite getting an absolute majority in earlier elections.

The current government is ÖVP-Greens and is seen as highly successful in the state. While the Greens had a very good result in 2014, it's not impossible that they can get it again (the List Pilz is not on the ballot).

NEOS is the big unknown, could get anywhere between 6% and 13%.

The SPÖ has a new, younger leader and might improve a bit - to reach double-digits again (LOL).

The FPÖ is expected to drop by a lot, following national trends. A result between 12-16% is likely, but they will not drop below 10% - because Vorarlberg is very export-oriented and has a big manufacturing/production sector.

There are also 7 smaller, meaningless parties running, none of them with a chance to pass the threshold. The biggest potential probably has HaK (a migrant, better said ... Turkish list).

Only 270.000 voters are eligible to vote (it is the 2nd smallest state).

Polls will close at 1pm (yes, that's right).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

what are the strong NEOS demands?

[Oryxslayer]

For reference, the Greens came in second in voralberg during the national election, it's why the region zoomed to the left on all my maps. However, the Green vote came from OVP-Green type voters, who probably want to cast OVP ballots this weekend. So second place, and with it a seat in the upper chamber, may be a tossup.

[Tender Branson]

35.000 postal ballots were requested ahead of the Vorarlberg election.

That’s up 38% compared with the 2014 state election, but down 20% compared with the federal elections two weeks ago.

Looks like turnout will be around 60%-ish, maybe a bit more. They always have the lowest turnout, together with Tyrol and Vienna.

https://presse.vorarlberg.at/land/dist/vlk-60246.html